BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

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I think he is trying to say WB is unlucky, but they aren't so idk

I think he's trying to indicate that WB has bad luck?

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Unless I'm :loco:, didn't WB have the #1 movie at the 2014 North American box office? What bad luck does the #1 movie studio have? And I really want to know how Warcraft can be a sleeper hit.
 
You mean Universal?
I would have said Universal.

I think he is trying to say WB is unlucky, but they aren't so idk

Unless I'm :loco:, didn't WB have the #1 movie at the 2014 North American box office? What bad luck does the #1 movie studio have? And I really want to know how Warcraft can be a sleeper hit.
Not sure if you are serious or taking the comment too literally.
Having the biggest movie ever doesn't disqualify one from also having bad luck from time to time(just ask fox). However that wasn't some statement about the WB reality but rather a comment made in jest about a somewhat similar situation that went down the last time with mos pertaining release schedules and the luck there in.

Where does it come from? Well last time they released a superman movie it was up against massively underestimated and over performing competition. World War Z in particular was written off at the top of that year due to the highly publicized rewrites and reshoots and production woes and overhuals. WB even moved their movie's release 2 weeks away from anything that was considered their competition and right into one of the worst second weekend positions in history for a big film.

The long and short of it is that of irony.
The point isn't to suggest BvS won't perform well, I'm sure it will be the biggest that year save for one or two other possible killer apps, but rather to point out how these very same conversations took place around MOS about competition and "With WB's luck(or rather bad luck)" it would be ironic if the competition again proved under estimated. To this very day I have to indulge people in their arguments about MOS's 65% drop in it's second weekend and one of the points always made is that the competition was supposed to do poorly?
Sorry but I'm not counting anything out.

As for why WoW 'could' be big, that comes down to luck and quality. Guardians and Ninja turtles weren't supposed to do all that much last year and somehow they did. Point being anything can happened, surely this needs no explanation. Any film can drop and be a big massive imagination capturing hit, especially something with game trailers like that one is based on. To write anything off in this day and age is beyond stupid imo. For it's not some prediction but rather a statement as to possibilities. Does it have to be made by james cameron before the possibility is given any weight? Or perhaps it could have the jackson 5 playing at the end there and work that angle.. The statement that WoW could be next years sleeper hit needs no explanation for it's a clear possibility, especially considering how many of you are demonstrating the first parameter 'sleeping on it'. The idea that WB has run into bad release schedule luck with this brand is kinda based on...the very last time it happened.

That being said, it's hardly a prediction but rather a statement pointing to irony, not simply in the situation the movie itself faces but also that of the way the fans are talking.
 
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Considering what MOS made compared to the last superman film and the first Cap film, they seem to be doing alright so far.
We'll see how the sequel does against other sequels.

That's what I mean, a Cap sequel did 715M. No way does the MOS sequel barely squeak by that number. Not with 2 of the big 3 superheroes of all time in the film.
 
One factor that has to be noted that Warcraft could be a sleeper hit with an auteur like Duncan Jones at the helm.

I think Warcraft will also have tons of brand appeal.

The statement that WoW could be next years sleeper hit needs no explanation for it's a clear possibility, especially considering how many of you are demonstrating the first parameter 'sleeping on it'. The idea that WB has run into bad release schedule luck with this brand is kinda based on...the very last time it happened.

Give me numbers what do you think Warcraft is going to do opening weekend, second weekend, and its third weekend when BvS is released.
 
Man of Steel's world wide totals are hurt by its foreign box offices numbers in comparison to other recent comic book movies. It's domestic total, despite the second weekend drop, is still very good.
 
the domestic box office is gonna be huge, what i'm worried about is its foreign box office i mean 377m for man of steel, yikes!
 
It's fun predicting, but rather foolish to try to predict before the marketing even kicks in ( i'm guilty as well )
thats why I say anywhere from 750 mill to 1.2 bill. We Need to see a teaser to get a better idea of what we can expect.
 
Man of Steel's world wide totals are hurt by its foreign box offices numbers in comparison to other recent comic book movies. It's domestic total, despite the second weekend drop, is still very good.

The foreign market, particularly the asian territories are big these days but you need to get your foot in the door first. Either by giant robots or by having a brand with some sort of long or recent history in their pop culture. Spiderman for example. Kick ass film choreography is also very appreciated considering they kinda invented it and have a vocabulary there.
The MCU films all have a foot in the door there post Avengers and Ironman and Hiddleston.
DC on the other hand, the biggest and best batman film wasn't even released there. As for superman the sequel will already have a foot in the door per say so I expect far better numbers there. What's more the bad/boring taste of superman lifting things and nothing else has no doubt been washed out of their mouths by this point. What's more, a big fat novelty party is sure to entice a more trendy audience and they are pretty tendy over seas. I also assume WB is going to release globally this time and not scattered, bootlegs really do damage in some areas.

Long story short, MOS' ww numbers are what really held back it's standing(even though it's domestic numbers are very impressive), things are bound to improve.

Would be pretty stupid for WB to scatter their release and have BvS open in China and the UK after the MCU's global relase of their versus film. Mad stupid.
 
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That's what I mean, a Cap sequel did 715M. No way does the MOS sequel barely squeak by that number. Not with 2 of the big 3 superheroes of all time in the film.

MOS basically made 700 in my opinion had WB not botched a few things, that anyone thinks it's own sequel would make the same is kinda odd, let alone this event film.
 
the domestic box office is gonna be huge, what i'm worried about is its foreign box office i mean 377m for man of steel, yikes!

As people pointed out, MOS was released in the heart of summer -- and it didn't help that there were too many offerings. It took a 72% dip in its second weekend thanks to World War Z and Monsters University. That $668M worldwide take is great considering how bloodthirsty summer 2013 was.

March 25, 2016 has significantly less competition and ergo, gives BVS room to overperform and secure better weekday grosses. I'm a bit worried that the Easter weekend will constrict it. We'll see how much Furious 7 does this weekend to see how much of a hit it'll take on Sunday.
 
As people pointed out, MOS was released in the heart of summer -- and it didn't help that there were too many offerings. It took a 72% dip in its second weekend thanks to World War Z and Monsters University. That $668M worldwide take is great considering how bloodthirsty summer 2013 was.

March 25, 2016 has significantly less competition and ergo, gives BVS room to overperform and secure better weekday grosses. I'm a bit worried that the Easter weekend will constrict it. We'll see how much Furious 7 does this weekend to see how much of a hit it'll take on Sunday.

Yup, Furious 7 is pretty much a test case for BvS.
 
Yup, Furious 7 is pretty much a test case for BvS.

I figured TWS already was.
This particular spot is golden imo. And I'm curious if F7 will get the april record back this weekend.
 
I figured TWS already was.
This particular spot is golden imo. And I'm curious if F7 will get the april record back this weekend.

TWS didn't release on Easter weekend though. Sunday drops are normally big on this weekend. Furious 7 will show whether Sunday can sustain better in case of a hyped movie. April record is pretty much locked already with the 15.8M in previews.
 
I figured TWS already was.
This particular spot is golden imo. And I'm curious if F7 will get the april record back this weekend.

F7's already made like $16 million from late night showings so the April record will probably be going back to the Family.

Off-topic, but I think Furious 7 will end up being 2015's best superhero movie.
 
One day soon we will see:

Wikipedia - Top Grossing Films of All time

1. Avatar
2. Titanic
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
 
TWS didn't release on Easter weekend though. Sunday drops are normally big on this weekend. Furious 7 will show whether Sunday can sustain better in case of a hyped movie. April record is pretty much locked already with the 15.8M in previews.

I'm confused, isn' easter every first weekend of april and didn't tws due the fist weekend of april...
BvS will be doing the first weekend of april?
I'm missing something

honest question
 
I'm confused, isn' easter every first weekend of april and didn't tws due the fist weekend of april...
BvS will be doing the first weekend of april?
I'm missing something

honest question

Easter weekend changes every year. Last year Easter was on April 18th or so IIRC. Next year Easter is on March 25th weekend, this year it is on the April 3rd weekend.

According to wiki

Easter would be held on the first Sunday after the first full moon occurring on or after the vernal equinox.

This can be anytime in a 30 day window. The vernal equinox is March 20th every year, so depending on when the full moon falls relative to March 20th, the date of Easter changes.
 
I see
I just figured it was like christmas.
 
Saw this comparison on the box office forums

The last 4 weeks have been pretty good in terms of openers, Cinderella with almost 70M, Insurgent with 52, Home with 50 and Get Hard with 32, and despite all the big openers, Furious 7 may reach 140 (depending on how much Good Friday has inflated OD numbers). Pretty good 4 week streak.
Next year has a pretty similar 4 week run through to Easter weekend with Zootopia, Warcraft, Allegiant P1 and KFP3, and BvS on Easter weekend. This may turn out to be a major release stretch in coming years as well as Summer gets more and more crowded.

I agree with the assessment above. Zootopia will open to around 50M, Warcraft may open to 50, Allegiant will drop harshly from Insurgent and Kung Fu Panda 3 will open in Home territory and as a bonus will hurt Zootopia. As long as the marketing for BvS is on point, it should be able to take the March record as well as the Easter record which Furious 7 will take this weekend.
 
If Furious takes 140 that would be a hell of a thing. We don't seem to appreciate these sorts of numbers any more(even though I think only two film hit 100 mill in 3 days last year) but creeping up to 150 in three days is huge. TDK huge technically. When hunger games did something like that in spring it was 'very huge' and now this movie might do it? Not bad
 
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