BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[Kanon]

Off by 1%. Given that I was off OW by $1 mil I'm gonna take it WW gross will come in $1 mil over my prediction. And then I will play the lotto. And then I will buy Warner Bros.

At this pace, playing the lotto and buying WB will be unrelated events (you won't need to win to have the money to buy WB, heck, maybe you can buy it with the price of the lottery ticket )

BvS fell below the most pesimistic predictions (all of them were on the 55M-65M range)

 

[Stark Bauer]

Actuals were even LOWER? Poni Boy 1%!!! lol

gonna go check my predictions now

 

[GreenKToo]

25/30 next weekend.

 

[Stark Bauer]

My prediction for the 2nd weekend was a 67%-70% drop.
those empty theater tweets are a studio exec's nightmare.


when i saw BvS in the biggest IMAX screen in Canada 2 days into its opening, Saturday night, in the heart of the 5th most populated city in North America (Toronto), the theater was around 2/3rds to 3/4 full. I have never seen such a poor turnout for a movie that had so much hype and potential

as much as posters here want to dismiss RT critics' influence on the BO, it was the proverbial 'canary in a coal mine.' The WOM was then the actual mineworkers being diagnosed with COPDs.

 

[Tymminator]

Well...3rd weekend is going to be ugly as well.

People see the large opening and think it's still going to go at that rate not thinking about the fact it is no longer opening up anywhere to keep momentum going, not to mention realizing how much it is deceasing domestic and abroad.

China is going to be little help and I hear UK, Australia and India are dropping as well.

I don't see this hitting 900M world wide, but I'm no expert.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Didn't fall below 70%
Didn't fall below 50 million for the weekend
700M after today

WB confident about the movie going forward. This is almost a complete reversal of how they regarded GL

Yes, BvS has flown past it's Marvel comparable, Iron Man 2, as expected. BvS has already made more in 2 weeks then it's MCU comparable grossed in its entire run. It's doing fine as the DCEU's world builder.

 

[Poni_Boy]

My prediction for the 2nd weekend was a 67%-70% drop.
those empty theater tweets are a studio exec's nightmare.


when i saw BvS in the biggest IMAX screen in Canada 2 days into its opening, Saturday night, in the heart of the 5th most populated city in North America (Toronto), the theater was around 2/3rds to 3/4 full. I have never seen such a poor turnout for a movie that had so much hype and potential

as much as posters here want to dismiss RT critics' influence on the BO, it was the proverbial 'canary in a coal mine.' The WOM was then the actual mineworkers being diagnosed with COPDs.

"Canary in a coal mine" is a great metaphor. And exactly what RT consensus is supposed to be. Stealing that

 

[-Arya-]

Yes, BvS has flown past it's Marvel comparable, Iron Man 2, as expected. BvS has already made more in 2 weeks then it's MCU comparable grossed in its entire run. It's doing fine as the DCEU's world builder.

The MCU budgets were considerably lower than BvS. BvS needs 800M just to break even.

 

[JC00]

Yes, BvS has flown past it's Marvel comparable, Iron Man 2, as expected. BvS has already made more in 2 weeks then it's MCU comparable grossed in its entire run. It's doing fine as the DCEU's world builder.

IM2 2nd DOM Weekend- $57m (that was in 2010)
BvS 2nd DOM Weekend- $51m

Yep doing real fine..

 

[Tymminator]

Is there an area in the world where it actually has a great hold? I don't know how much that will save the box office but I was wondering.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Revising my estimates for the third time on how much BvS will make over the next 4 months domestically:


Week 1: $209 million
Week 2: $75 million (-64%)
Week 3: $30.00 million (-60%)
Week 4: $9.00 million (-70%) *The Jungle Book is uncaged*
Week 5: $4.50 million (-50%)
Week 6: $2.25 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%) *Captain America: Civil War is deployed*
Weeks 8-16: $3 million




Grand Total: $333.75 million (my previous prediction was 351.1 million)
Lowered my BO forecast by $17.35M


(2.0105 multiplier),
projected to finish 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/...adaptation.htm)


Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier!


Best case scenario: $348 (2.1x) less than Deadpool (will be ranked #9)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than Guardians Of The Galaxy (will be ranked #12)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fascinating to see what unfolds!

 

[Poni_Boy]

an ill informed comparison as BvS is already set to make 3 times its total gross
Does that seem like a good comparison?

I would love to see the math behind this

 

[Poni_Boy]

Revising my estimates for the third time on how much BvS will make over the next 4 months domestically:


Week 1: $209 million
Week 2: $75 million (-64%)
Week 3: $30.00 million (-60%)
Week 4: $9.00 million (-70%) *The Jungle Book is released*
Week 5: $4.50 million (-50%)
Week 6: $2.25 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%)
Weeks 8-16: $3 million




Grand Total: $333.75 million (my previous prediction was 351.1 million)
Lowered my BO forecast by $17.35M


(2.0105 multiplier),
projected to finish 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/...adaptation.htm)


Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier!


Best case scenario: $348 (2.1x) less than TDKR (will be ranked #5)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than MOS (will be ranked #9)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fascinating to see what unfolds!

Sounds about right

 

[Sithborg]

IM2 2nd DOM Weekend- $57m (that was in 2010)
BvS 2nd DOM Weekend- $51m

Yep doing real fine..

When trying to build a cinematic universe, reception may be slightly more important than the actual box office. It is a long term vs short term view.

Make no mistake, there was a reason why Fox scrapped their Origins line of X-men movies. I mean, it didn't fair too terribly when you compare it to the first Capt America and Thor movies.

 

[ImSGirl95]

I guess a few weeks from now folks will start saying how BvS outperformed The Green Hornet in it's 4th week.

Well, at least BvS outperformed Gods of Egypt.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Wait, what now? You're saying XMOW is better than the CA & Thor franchises?
I can't even ...

No, he's saying that the box office take was higher for XOrigins than for the first Cap and Thor movies. Which proves that using WW box office ALONE to compare movies doesn't prove general audience reception. Comparisons with no context hold no weight.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Is there an area in the world where it actually has a great hold? I don't know how much that will save the box office but I was wondering.

I think it only dropped like 50% in Brazil. It seems to be doing marginally better in central/south America. But those are the best (or "best") results I've heard.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So, now we're supposed to believe WB scrapped a MOS sequel in favor of BvS because they didn't want Avengers money. Of course..

Yep. David Goyer said it best years ago:

"Batman Vs. Superman is where you go when you admit to yourself that you’ve exhausted all possibilities. It’s like Frankenstein meets Wolfman or Freddy Vs. Jason. It’s somewhat of an admission that this franchise is on its last gasp."

BvS was WB pulling out the big guns/going all in/hoping for a Hail Mary to world build. And that gamble ain't paying off. They have NO big gimmicks to use now. Not even Justice League, which is just BvS turned up to 11.

 

[TeeKay]

Revising my estimates for the third time on how much BvS will make over the next 4 months domestically:


Week 1: $209 million
Week 2: $75 million (-64%)
Week 3: $30.00 million (-60%)
Week 4: $9.00 million (-70%) *The Jungle Book is uncaged*
Week 5: $4.50 million (-50%)
Week 6: $2.25 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%) *Captain America: Civil War is deployed*
Weeks 8-16: $3 million




Grand Total: $333.75 million (my previous prediction was 351.1 million)
Lowered my BO forecast by $17.35M


(2.0105 multiplier),
projected to finish 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/...adaptation.htm)


Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier!


Best case scenario: $348 (2.1x) less than TDKR (will be ranked #5)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than MOS (will be ranked #9)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fascinating to see what unfolds!

I laughed way harder than I should have. You make it sound as if Marvel are dropping an atomic bomb in theatres lol

 

[Kanon]

Is there an area in the world where it actually has a great hold? I don't know how much that will save the box office but I was wondering.

Here in Argentina it dropped 45%. Hold on to those pesos, WB!

 

[SuperAl]

Indeed. If you enjoyed the movie, that's fine, but everyone needs to face reality. Numbers don't lie. Does anyone actually believe WB is happy with merely breaking even with a film that sets up the next 5-6 years of their universe?

Probably, if one film can launch the next 10 I'd say they achieved their goal. I am sure they wanted to make a ton of money on this but they basically established a bunch of franchises with this one movie.

I imagine WW and the rest of the solo flicks will be considerably cheaper and probably make the same amount of money. Not to mention all the merchandise cash they'll see when they start selling WW merchandise to little girls followed by flash, cyborg, etc. Gotta start thinking LT and look at the bigger picture.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I am amused that people are acting as if a 68 % drop is somehow good. "It crossed the 50 million threshold! We did it!"

Point of order: 69%

 

[All-Father]

Yep. David Goyer said it best years ago:

"Batman Vs. Superman is where you go when you admit to yourself that you’ve exhausted all possibilities. It’s like Frankenstein meets Wolfman or Freddy Vs. Jason. It’s somewhat of an admission that this franchise is on its last gasp."

BvS was WB pulling out the big guns/going all in/hoping for a Hail Mary to world build. And that gamble ain't paying off. They have NO big gimmicks to use now. Not even Justice League, which is just BvS turned up to 11.

Exactly. And that's so obvious to see. I don't know why people keep denying it.

And to think that the inclusion of flash (which is, by far, the most popular of these remaining members), freakin aquaman and cyborg is going to substantially increase the box office from a critically panned and underperforming franchise is kind of strange to me...

 

[-Arya-]

Probably, if one film can launch the next 10 I'd say they achieved their goal. I am sure they wanted to make a ton of money on this but they basically established a bunch of franchises with this one movie.

I imagine WW and the rest of the solo flicks will be considerably cheaper and probably make the same amount of money. Not to mention all the merchandise cash they'll see when they start selling WW merchandise to little girls followed by flash, cyborg, etc. Gotta start thinking LT and look at the bigger picture.

They established something that fans, critics and the GA simply did not like overall. That is how not to start a shared universe. Things from this point forward will be a steep uphill battle in order to get everyone's confidence back.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I think they should let "Honest Trailers" to do a video for the movie, as part of some kind of promo. It could end super hillarious and it could gather people's interest.

I 100% support this. Go guerilla with the marketing. Have fun with it. Offer incentives. Get tickets sold. Manipulating numbers didn't help, so cut that crap out and get to work. But from what I'm hearing that ain't happening. "It is what it is" seems to be the marketing strategy now.