BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[SomeOldGuy]

So hitfix did a piece on the drop:

http://www.hitfix.com/news/box-offi...upermans-huge-second-weekend-drop-is-alarming

They talked to some box office guys like Gitesh, who is now predicting $345 million domestic/$900 million WW. Then there was this:

David Mumpower is perhaps the most pessimistic of the pundits who weighed in, with the Box Office Prophets founder telling me plainly, "I'm surprised by how quickly it's dying. The weekday numbers were all alarming, and what's happened over the weekend indicates that it's already a dead film." Mumpower went on to note that he expects six-week-old Zootopia to actually best Dawn of Justice by next weekend.

Under Zootopia's next weekend would mean something like under $15 million next weekend. That would be insane.

 

[parkerpete]

The big lesson here is that you can't divorce quality from box office. Yes, we all know about Transformers. But in the last three years we have seen Batman, Superman, and Spider-Man all underperform at the box office with poorly received films and characters like the Guardians of the Galaxy and Deadpool dramatically overperform with well received films. The idea that any superhero is critic-proof is dead and it is something every studio that handles these properties, be it WB, Disney, Fox, or Sony needs to learn right now.

And that's basically how it will be with Suicide Squad. It will live or die off of its own merits as a film.

As for me, I didn't think there was any way this movie would do less than a billion. In the future, I will pay more heed to the reviews and word of mouth in my predictions as well. I know fans won't like hearing this, but one thing the box office of BvS proved is that Rotten Tomatoes DOES matter for these films and should no longer be ignored when making box office predictions.

Which is really for the best, and why I'm following the B.O. and hoping it trends downward. I don't want to see a financial incentive for WB to keep going in this direction. People who think 'B v S was the greatest thing ever, and we have to see it 5 times in the theater so they'll make more' are the enemies of quality superhero movies.

 

[antoineflemming]

The big lesson here is that you can't divorce quality from box office. Yes, we all know about Transformers. But in the last three years we have seen Batman, Superman, and Spider-Man all underperform at the box office with poorly received films and characters like the Guardians of the Galaxy and Deadpool dramatically overperform with well received films. The idea that any superhero is critic-proof is dead and it is something every studio that handles these properties, be it WB, Disney, Fox, or Sony needs to learn right now.

And that's basically how it will be with Suicide Squad. It will live or die off of its own merits as a film.

As for me, I didn't think there was any way this movie would do less than a billion. In the future, I will pay more heed to the reviews and word of mouth in my predictions as well. I know fans won't like hearing this, but one thing the box office of BvS proved is that Rotten Tomatoes DOES matter for these films and should no longer be ignored when making box office predictions.

"Quality" is relative. I wouldn't call most CBMs "quality" (yes, that includes some Marvel Studios films), yet many of those have fresh RT scores and successful box office results. I wouldn't call Thor TDW "quality" yet it made $600 million+. I wouldn't call Guardians of the Galaxy "quality" yet it was very successful for a film about obscure characters. I wouldn't call Iron Man 3 "quality", yet it made $1.3 billion. I wouldn't call the Hobbit trilogy "quality" yet it was a billion dollar franchise. I wouldn't call the Transformers films "quality", yet that is also a billion dollar franchise. "Quality" does not equal "high box office." You want to know what all those films DID have in common? They were very much like pseudo-comedies, featuring a good bit of jokes and crude humor (yeah, that includes The Hobbit films). CBM+comedy generally equals high box office. But none of those films are such that I would call "quality." Then again, I'm guessing you and I have very different notions of what "quality" entails.

 

[johnboy3434]

Under Zootopia's next weekend would mean something like under $15 million next weekend. That would be insane.

Holy crap. I've been underguessing the whole time, and even I have next weekend at $23.6 million.

 

[JtheDreamer]

"Quality" is relative. I wouldn't call most CBMs "quality" (yes, that includes some Marvel Studios films), yet many of those have fresh RT scores and successful box office results. I wouldn't call Thor TDW "quality" yet it made $700 million+. I wouldn't call Guardians of the Galaxy "quality" yet it was very successful for a film about obscure characters. I wouldn't call Iron Man 3 "quality", yet it made $1.3 billion. I wouldn't call the Hobbit trilogy "quality" yet it was a billion dollar franchise. I wouldn't call the Transformers films "quality", yet that is also a billion dollar franchise. "Quality" does not equal "high box office." You want to know what all those films DID have in common? They were very much like pseudo-comedies, featuring a good bit of jokes and crude humor (yeah, that includes The Hobbit films). CBM+comedy generally equals high box office. But none of those films are such that I would call "quality." Then again, I'm guessing you and I have very different notions of what "quality" entails.

T:TDW didn't make $700+ million. Its final tally was $644 million.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Holy crap. I've been underguessing the whole time, and even I have next weekend at $23.6 million.

Yeah, I can't see it either, but the way this thing is falling who knows?

 

[antoineflemming]

T:TDW didn't make $700+ million. Its final tally was $644 million.

Huh. Don't know why I thought it made more than that. NVM then.

 

[Flint Marko]

It's fine if you don't think any of those are quality but I think BvS is significantly worse than all of those you just listed save for maybe the Transformers films.

 

[Mjölnir]

Edit: All this OT talk made me yet again think I was in a different thread when I posted. I retract my OT comment and just say that the predictions above for next weekend are surprisingly low, despite all that's going on.

 

[marieylee]

I think he means Zoo beating it worldwide. I believe in China Zootopia in its 5th week (or 4th) outgrossed BvS this weekend.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

"Quality" is relative. I wouldn't call most CBMs "quality" (yes, that includes some Marvel Studios films), yet many of those have fresh RT scores and successful box office results. I wouldn't call Thor TDW "quality" yet it made $600 million+. I wouldn't call Guardians of the Galaxy "quality" yet it was very successful for a film about obscure characters. I wouldn't call Iron Man 3 "quality", yet it made $1.3 billion. I wouldn't call the Hobbit trilogy "quality" yet it was a billion dollar franchise. I wouldn't call the Transformers films "quality", yet that is also a billion dollar franchise. "Quality" does not equal "high box office." You want to know what all those films DID have in common? They were very much like pseudo-comedies, featuring a good bit of jokes and crude humor (yeah, that includes The Hobbit films). CBM+comedy generally equals high box office. But none of those films are such that I would call "quality." Then again, I'm guessing you and I have very different notions of what "quality" entails.

I'm talking about the big picture of audience and critical reception, not our own personal opinions on what is good and what isn't.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think he means Zoo beating it worldwide. I believe in China Zootopia in its 5th week (or 4th) outgrossed BvS this weekend.

Yeah that would make much more sense.

 

[db85usa]

No. To both.

I agree. I see no way BvS retains the top spot in the box office a 50% drop alone puts it at risk of finishing behind The Boss. With BvS' 3rd weekend, I'm expecting another 60% drop if not more. I'm looking at at least a $31-$33 million reduction from weekend #2. This doesn't bode well for BvS at all. A studio with these type of characters/stories are supposed to be able to beat these type of films even in your 3rd weekend.

Honestly, I was expecting The Jungle Book to dethrone it but after BvS 2nd weekend, boy its tough to think whether it can even out gross The Boss.

 

[db85usa]

Actual was $51.34mil in the end. A little under the earlier $51.8

So, I was over by $164,746? Worst news ever t: I don't like to over estimate but oh well, it happens. We'll know more how BvS will do in weekend #3 with Mon/Tues receipts. Weds/Thurs might see slightly higher drops. I still think BvS can manage to gross $18-$21 million for its 3rd weekend - could end up neck and neck with The Boss if it gets mixed reviews, solid reviews and I expect that film to pick up $25 million for their opening weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

"Quality" is relative. I wouldn't call most CBMs "quality" (yes, that includes some Marvel Studios films), yet many of those have fresh RT scores and successful box office results. I wouldn't call Thor TDW "quality" yet it made $600 million+. I wouldn't call Guardians of the Galaxy "quality" yet it was very successful for a film about obscure characters. I wouldn't call Iron Man 3 "quality", yet it made $1.3 billion. I wouldn't call the Hobbit trilogy "quality" yet it was a billion dollar franchise. I wouldn't call the Transformers films "quality", yet that is also a billion dollar franchise. "Quality" does not equal "high box office." You want to know what all those films DID have in common? They were very much like pseudo-comedies, featuring a good bit of jokes and crude humor (yeah, that includes The Hobbit films). CBM+comedy generally equals high box office. But none of those films are such that I would call "quality." Then again, I'm guessing you and I have very different notions of what "quality" entails.

When talking quality, I am sure most are talking about the general reaction of the GA and critics.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm talking about the big picture of audience and critical reception, not our own personal opinions on what is good and what isn't.

Missed this, but yah, I was right. t:

 

[Clark-Kent]

On one hand some fans complained the film was too long, on the other hand if the extended rated R cut were to get a theater release... They'd get a lot of the diehard fans to see it again. I wonder would that count towards the bo if that were even possible to release? I guess we are stuck waiting till July though for the blu-ray

 

[Jaxon]

When talking quality, I am sure most are talking about the general reaction of the GA and critics.

And what he's saying is that the GA want 2 hours of escapism with a few decent laughs and that's that.

But for me I'm sick of those movies because I want movies where there's stakes, where something is on the line and it feels like it matters. The only Marvel movie that made me "feel" anything was Loki screaming at Odin "tell me". Outside of that nothing.
In both DCEU films frankly I'm tearing up when Pa kent dies, Supes sacrifices himself, Batman says "I'm a friend of your son's", etc.

So yeah, real quality isn't going to hit the box office. Same reason Oscar films are pretty much crap fests at the box office.

 

[Tymminator]

So hitfix did a piece on the drop:

http://www.hitfix.com/news/box-offi...upermans-huge-second-weekend-drop-is-alarming

They talked to some box office guys like Gitesh, who is now predicting $345 million domestic/$900 million WW. Then there was this:



Under Zootopia's next weekend would mean something like under $15 million next weekend. That would be insane.

I blurted "20M" a few pages back as a guess for fun, but if Zootopia beats it, then...wow.

That just seems very extreme.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

And what he's saying is that the GA want 2 hours of escapism with a few decent laughs and that's that.

But for me I'm sick of those movies because I want movies where there's stakes, where something is on the line and it feels like it matters. The only Marvel movie that made me "feel" anything was Loki screaming at Odin "tell me". Outside of that nothing.
In both DCEU films frankly I'm tearing up when Pa kent dies, Supes sacrifices himself, Batman says "I'm a friend of your son's", etc.

So yeah, real quality isn't going to hit the box office. Same reason Oscar films are pretty much crap fests at the box office.

This isn't the place to talk quality, the mods have made that clear. I will just say that I don't really tear up for stuff like that when it is hollow and built on no foundation. Cap and Bucky, that made me tear up.

And Oscar films don't do crap at the box office. Most of the time they are reasonably budgeted and thus don't need tentpole numbers. The reason why BvS is having trouble is it cost so much, and yet isn't pulling big, big numbers.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I agree. I see no way BvS retains the top spot in the box office a 50% drop alone puts it at risk of finishing behind The Boss. With BvS' 3rd weekend, I'm expecting another 60% drop if not more. I'm looking at at least a $31-$33 million reduction from weekend #2. This doesn't bode well for BvS at all. A studio with these type of characters/stories are supposed to be able to beat these type of films even in your 3rd weekend.

Honestly, I was expecting The Jungle Book to dethrone it but after BvS 2nd weekend, boy its tough to think whether it can even out gross The Boss.

Yep. I hate to keep bringing out the Bell Curve example but I feel it's the best way to describe legs.

A movie needs to hit those two mid range quadrants to be successful weekend after weekend. The far right are hard pass people. The middle right are casual moviegoers who still aren't sold on seeing it. The middle left are people who have seen it and probably won't see it again, and the far left are people who have seen it and will see it again. At this time BvS only has the far left. No good.

 

[Poni_Boy]

On one hand some fans complained the film was too long, on the other hand if the extended rated R cut were to get a theater release... They'd get a lot of the diehard fans to see it again. I wonder would that count towards the bo if that were even possible to release? I guess we are stuck waiting till July though for the blu-ray

EC Bluray ain't coming in July. I still think WB should drop it in IMAX theaters this weekend. It's their last chance before losing those screens.

 

[Flickster]

Any word on Monday's numbers?

 

[Clark-Kent]

EC Bluray ain't coming in July. I still think WB should drop it in IMAX theaters this weekend. It's their last chance before losing those screens.

I saw someone mention July earlier. Don't know where the date came from originally. I agree though, if they released this in the theaters they could bank a lot of extra money with EC.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I saw someone mention July earlier. Don't know where the date came from originally. I agree though, if they released this in the theaters they could bank a lot of extra money with EC.

They really couldn't. These little special releases don't pull in a lot of money. Especially for films that aren't beloved. I remember when TASM2 came out and so many on that board were talking about the EC release that would save the box office. The truth is, it cost more then it is worth.