BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[jokesonm3]

Jeez Louise if its 3rd week is less than $20M

But at this point it feels like a certainty.

 

[db85usa]

Jeez Louise if its 3rd week is less than $20M

But at this point it feels like a certainty.

You mean less than $20M for Mon-Thurs? A week in the box office is Friday to Thursday. So Week 2 total using your $20M would be $71.3M ($51.3M weekend #2 + $20M Mon-Thurs)

 

[gerrym51]

Furious 7. released easter weekend last year

2nd Monday--3.6 million

 

[db85usa]

Furious 7. released easter weekend last year

2nd Monday--3.6 million

Yeah but it ended up grossing $1.1 billion overseas so that comparison kind of gets thrown out the window. BvS' box office path is almost statistically identical with Spider-Man 3 right now.

 

[gerrym51]

I have no control overseas. My point was here in North america

2nd monday was 3.6 versus BvS 3.1.

Also last night was the ncaa Championship basketball game. late night movie goers usually men.

the monday gross in North america in the ball park with other movies here.

i think BvS will do 855 million worldiwde

 

[jokesonm3]

You mean less than $20M for Mon-Thurs? A week in the box office is Friday to Thursday. So Week 2 total using your $20M would be $71.3M ($51.3M weekend #2 + $20M Mon-Thurs)

No for this coming weekend (Apr. 8th - Apr. 10th)

 

[db85usa]

I have no control overseas. My point was here in North america

2nd monday was 3.6 versus BvS 3.1.

Also last night was the ncaa Championship basketball game. late night movie goers usually men.

the monday gross in North america in the ball park with other movies here.

i think BvS will do 855 million worldiwde

Spider-Man 3 grossed $58M in its 2nd weekend, BvS $51.3M. Spider-Man 3 had a 77% drop on Day 11 ($3.5M) and here we have BvS with $3.1M on Day 11 assuming that will be the actual for Monday then that's just north of a 77% drop from Sunday for BvS.

Domestic totals 11 days in release:
BvS $263M
Spider-Man 3 $243M

Spider-Man 3 had issues similar to BvS with bad critic reviews, mixed audience reactions, B+ CinemaScore. It ended up grossing $890M worldwide.

 

[db85usa]

No for this coming weekend (Apr. 8th - Apr. 10th)

Yeah a majority of people think The Boss will claim the top spot. I'd put BvS 3rd weekend on or around $18-$22M at this point.

 

[mightiest_mortal]

What does it matter if some kids are still enjoying spring break? This film isn't for kids as Snyderchasers so proudly assured us. So that wouldn't really affect the BO.

LOL Where did this whole "DC Movies are for adults, Marvel movies are for kids" thing even come from.

I mean, if you look at WBs entire state of movies most have been far cheesier and kiddy than any Marvel movie. TDK is the first one that was even thematically dark and adult.

Since then they've had this "low saturation+no jokes = dark and adult" mentality. Without any darker themes or ideas to back it up (then aren't super forced) then it just feels a bit embarrassing. Some of the Marvel films have reached darker places than MOS or BVS did. (a standout moment in particular being Cap letting Bucky smash his face repeatedly, on the gamble his death would free him).

 

[Iceman]

I think BvS and Deadpool are marking the beginning of a new outlook for box office predictions where you really have to see the movie first to make borderline accurate predictions of reception and box office

Yeah, good point. I think a lot of predictions would have changed significantly after seeing these 2 films in particular. And my good run of predictions didn't have to deal so much with likes of twitter reactions and more modern developments. I would have definitely changed my AoU prediction after seeing it (I massively overpredicted the overseas number). I might still have got Furious 7 overseas (esp China) and Jurassic World completely wrong though!

 

[titansupes]

Spider-Man 3 grossed $58M in its 2nd weekend, BvS $51.3M. Spider-Man 3 had a 77% drop on Day 11 ($3.5M) and here we have BvS with $3.1M on Day 11 assuming that will be the actual for Monday then that's just north of a 77% drop from Sunday for BvS.

Domestic totals 11 days in release:
BvS $263M
Spider-Man 3 $243M

Spider-Man 3 had issues similar to BvS with bad critic reviews, mixed audience reactions, B+ CinemaScore. It ended up grossing $890M worldwide.

Interesting. What did S-M3 make on it's third weekend?

 

[Webhead38]

Not to add insult to injury but Zootopia made $3.2 million on Monday so BVS has already taken a backseat to another film before Jungle Book has gotten here. That's a pretty huge collapse given there is really no competition out there and it can't hold on to first place with those advantages.

 

[db85usa]

Interesting. What did S-M3 make on it's third weekend?

This is where things get fudged. S-M3 only dropped 50% in Weekend 3 $29M while Shrek The Third opened with $121M. Tony Stark posted previously I think stating that the only hope for this film now is to drop no more than 50% for its 3rd weekend. Its really a coin toss. If the reviews for The Boss are horrible then BvS might not have a 60-65% 3rd weekend drop. We'll learn more as always later this week.

 

[gerrym51]

Spider-Man 3 grossed $58M in its 2nd weekend, BvS $51.3M. Spider-Man 3 had a 77% drop on Day 11 ($3.5M) and here we have BvS with $3.1M on Day 11 assuming that will be the actual for Monday then that's just north of a 77% drop from Sunday for BvS.

Domestic totals 11 days in release:
BvS $263M
Spider-Man 3 $243M

Spider-Man 3 had issues similar to BvS with bad critic reviews, mixed audience reactions, B+ CinemaScore. It ended up grossing $890M worldwide.

your not adjusting for inflation-which is hard to do in the relatively non inflation period we've had for the last 10 years. however i would guess Spidey 3 would be ahead in inflation adjusted dollars. I use Furious 7 because it's more recent and started easter weekend last year. since last tuesday BvS has been underperforming Furious 7. I think it tops out max 325 milion NA if that high

 

[db85usa]

your not adjusting for inflation-which is hard to do in the relatively non inflation period we've had for the last 10 years. however i would guess Spidey 3 would be ahead in inflation adjusted dollars. I use Furious 7 because it's more recent and started easter weekend last year. since last tuesday BvS has been underperforming Furious 7. I think it tops out max 325 milion NA if that high

SM-3 was released in 2007 and no, I'm not adjusting for inflation but the comparison between BvS and SM-3 is rather remarkable to say the least.

 

[Webhead38]

SM-3 was released in 2007 and no, I'm not adjusting for inflation but the comparison between BvS and SM-3 is rather remarkable to say the least.

Spider-man 3 was also released in May (not March) with competition around it (28 weeks later, Shrek the Third, and the Pirates World's End). BVS has no competition around it and is now in second place to Zootopia with Monday's figures.

 

[db85usa]

Spider-man 3 was also released in May (not March) with competition around it (28 weeks later, Shrek the Third, and the Pirates World's End). BVS has no competition around it and is now in second place to Zootopia with Monday's figures.

I'm fully aware of what happened 9 years ago in the box office. I posted earlier how SM-3 only dropped 50% when Shrek 3 opened which at the time was surprising. What it means for BvS is that knowing this film was strictly front loaded, and now with its legs being cut out from under it due to bad reviews/mixed audience, its beginning to have gigantic drops.

On a side note: I find it alarming too, that Zack Snyder spoke to a media outlet playing the "what if?" game... what if we made Man of Steel 2 and there was a Batman standalone instead. What if Bryan Cranston was Lex Luthor instead, etc. I think because of BvS box office performance, Justice League may have a new director soon.

 

[Webhead38]

^^^ Yep. BVS is in freefall.

 

[InCali]

SM-3 was released in 2007 and no, I'm not adjusting for inflation but the comparison between BvS and SM-3 is rather remarkable to say the least.

Don't try. You're basically on the right track I think. You will NEVER find an exact 1:1 correlation between any two separate entities. Statistics is all about getting close; not being exactly on the nose.

 

[Flint Marko]

So it's possible that BvS won't even hit 900 million?

 

[Webhead38]

So it's possible that BvS won't even hit 900 million?

If foreign territories continue to erode in the same fashion anything over $825 million might also be out of play. One thing is for certain, one billion is off the table.

 

[mightiest_mortal]

So it's possible that BvS won't even hit 900 million?

imo even 850 is a real push. I'm not sure 900 is feasible at this point.

 

[Flint Marko]

Wow. So is it safe to say this movie is a massive financial disappointment?

 

[JOE]

I was figuring IM3 numbers for this movie... Damn.

 

[wobbly]

So it's possible that BvS won't even hit 900 million?

At the moment, yes. $850mil ww might be the ceiling in the end.

Needs a reasonable 3rd weekend. Doesn't feel like it will.