BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[GR8GODZILLAGOD]

Wow. So is it safe to say this movie is a massive financial disappointment?

Oh absolutely. With how much the budget was for this plus marketing, WB must've been expecting this to make well over a billion.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So it's possible that BvS won't even hit 900 million?

Statistically speaking it's an improbability. Not even $800 million is a lock at this point. If the drops plateau exactly where they are we're looking at north of $850. If they decline exponentially.. well.

Also, thanks guys who contributed reference info to my new sig. Should help the new guys out

 

[Webhead38]

Wow. So is it safe to say this movie is a massive financial disappointment?

It's a big disappointment in terms of the movie's performance, but the studio will make plenty of money after the merchandise and DVD sales are configured in. But in terms of keeping their financial backers and those who fund future projects, this is surely creating problems. I would expect an announcement in the coming weeks that Justice League will be pushed back. They can't say it now even if they have made that decision because it would further impact the business BVS is doing. But the writing is on the wall. Snyder's treatment is not appealing and they will have to do more than change directors. I'm sure they have to make considerable changes on the script as well. Otherwise they would still be shooting Snyder's movie. WB has a big PR mess on their hands.

 

[db85usa]

Don't try. You're basically on the right track I think. You will NEVER find an exact 1:1 correlation between any two separate entities. Statistics is all about getting close; not being exactly on the nose.

That's exactly why I'm not playing that game, lol. With my projections (and I've been pretty spot on not to say in a braggadocios way) I've used the following films to compare BvS to up to this point: HP DH2, Hunger Games, and Spider-Man 3.

I have gone over countless surveys, reviews, percentages, spoken to a few insiders and these three films are the ones I've used as a barometer. HP DH2 & Spider-Man for its drops, Hunger Games for nearly an identical release schedule and close OW number compared to BvS. I have not used Furious 7 to draw comparisons. I haven't budged yet on my projection for this film so it will remain:

$330M domestic
$550 foreign - that leaves us with $880M worldwide. With the way the film is trending down, that number falls $10 million short of Spider-Man 3's worldwide total. Domestically, this film will slowly get to $330M and that's where it ends.

 

[Iceman]

Oh absolutely. With how much the budget was for this plus marketing, WB must've been expecting this to make well over a billion.

I reckon (completely my guesses) WB were looking at $1.1-1.2B on the conservative side, hoping for more of course, maybe $1.2B-$1.5B. I don't think they would have even thought below $1B was a possibility, even with a poor reception. That said I think the bigger priority than making money on this film was setting the foundation and building momentum for their cinematic universe, thereby guaranteeing a minimum level and degree of safety for their future films. But on that front it's been an even bigger failure.

 

[db85usa]

Statistically speaking it's an improbability. Not even $800 million is a lock at this point. If the drops plateau exactly where they are we're looking at north of $850. If they decline exponentially.. well.

Also, thanks guys who contributed reference info to my new sig. Should help the new guys out

What's neat is the first weekend most of us really have no idea where the film might end up and can only look to the RT score, audience reactions, the late embargo, etc. then we all said we'll know if this film will get to $1 billion once we know the weekday figures after OW and they were pretty modest, then it was easy to say this film wouldn't gross $1B because it was facing a 65-70% 2nd weekend drop.

Now the picture is even more clearer. There is absolutely no chance this grosses past $900M and now $850M is not a given anymore. If the film continues to have these ginormous drops, then yeah, I'm not 100% sold it can even gross past $800M worlwide. One has to look at this with a realistic mindset. I think this weekend is important for WB. Drop 50-55% then its not so bad but drop 60-65% (which is what I'm expecting,) then its just gonna keep snowballing until the theaters pull it.

 

[The Joker]

It's shocking to think a Batman vs Superman movie might not even hit 800 million, and with no competition in theaters. Unbelievable.

 

[db85usa]

It's shocking to think a Batman vs Superman movie might not even hit 800 million, and with no competition in theaters. Unbelievable.

Yeah just think if the movie had a 75% RT score, 'A' CinemaScore, good WOM, this thing could have easily grossed $1.3-$1.5 billion worldwide. Its BATMAN and SUPERMAN FFS!

 

[JOE]

It's shocking to think a Batman vs Superman movie might not even hit 800 million, and with no competition in theaters. Unbelievable.

I think 800M is doable, 900M is out of reach IMO.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Drop 50-55% then its not so bad but drop 60-65% (which is what I'm expecting,) then its just gonna keep snowballing until the theaters pull it.

Keep in mind that theaters are likely to start pulling it this weekend regardless. Typically movies are only locked in for the first two weeks and it certainly isnt performing well enough to justify 4,000+ theaters anymore. That will only make things worse IMO.

 

[kalhawj]

What's Monday's number?

 

[-Arya-]

It's shocking to think a Batman vs Superman movie might not even hit 800 million, and with no competition in theaters. Unbelievable.

That's what Zack Snyder will do for ya. Maybe he should have chosen a different position for his career; Director of photography perhaps.

 

[jokesonm3]

It's shocking to think a Batman vs Superman movie might not even hit 800 million, and with no competition in theaters. Unbelievable.

I'm going to forever remember that $81M Opening Day number that BvS grossed, as the biggest 'What if?' in Box Office history.

I mean could you imagine the box office this film would've made, if it had great legs like Zootopia, coupled with its half a billion opening weekend?

It definitely would've made somewhere between, $1.2 Billion to $1.5 Billion at the global box office.

God, such wasted potential.

 

[db85usa]

Keep in mind that theaters are likely to start pulling it this weekend regardless. Typically movies are only locked in for the first two weeks and it certainly isnt performing well enough to justify 4,000+ theaters anymore. That will only make things worse IMO.

Oh, yeah. Its inevitable but what I meant was they're really gonna start pulling it. That theater count will drop faster than a toupee in a hurricane.

 

[Poni_Boy]

What's Monday's number?

3.1 million roughly

 

[Poni_Boy]

Keep in mind that theaters are likely to start pulling it this weekend regardless. Typically movies are only locked in for the first two weeks and it certainly isnt performing well enough to justify 4,000+ theaters anymore. That will only make things worse IMO.

Yep. And it's guaranteed to lose all but maybe 5% of IMAX screens for Jungle Book the following weekend.

 

[db85usa]

I'm going to forever remember that $81M Opening Day number that BvS grossed, as the biggest 'What if?' in Box Office history.

I mean could you imagine the box office this film would've made, if it had great legs like Zootopia, coupled with its half a billion opening weekend?

It definitely would've made somewhere between, $1.2 Billion to $1.5 Billion at the global box office.

God, such wasted potential.

4 more months friend, and you will be able to relax and watch SS

 

[kalhawj]

3.1 million roughly

Yep if international doesn't pull through 800-850 WW is where we are looking at BvS. Shame, this movie could have pull 1.5+ billion had it been a hit for everyone. I hope this is a wake-up call to WB and make JL the movie we all want. I love BvS so I hopeful WB will make the necessary changes needed to give us a fun lighthearted assemble movie that's a hit with Critics and fans of all ages.

 

[Tymminator]

My guess is $3.4 million.

Rth is reporting 3.1 million for Monday.

Good job.

 

[InCali]

Oh absolutely. With how much the budget was for this plus marketing, WB must've been expecting this to make well over a billion.

"I" was expecting it make well over 1B. I hope SS and (especially) WW end up being good. If they are, DC can probably recover (much like X-Men, hopefully, did after the Origins and Last Stand fiasco). While I think DC has gotten a little bit bruised up, most people care more about seeing a good movie rather than who makes the movie. There's some of the latter, but to most of us, that's less important.

 

[InCali]

Oh, yeah. Its inevitable but what I meant was they're really gonna start pulling it. That theater count will drop faster than a toupee in a hurricane.

That's a terrible analogy.

 

[db85usa]

Because of BvS box office performance, WB is re-shooting scenes for Suicide Squad to make it more "fun" interesting.

 

[FunkMiller]

It's shocking to think a Batman vs Superman movie might not even hit 800 million, and with no competition in theaters. Unbelievable.

It's kind of restoring my faith in humanity a bit. Bad movie does badly once people realise it's bad. If this thing had soared I would have been seriously worried about society in general

 

[GR8GODZILLAGOD]

Because of BvS box office performance, WB is re-shooting scenes for Suicide Squad to make it more "fun" interesting.

Was that confirmed or was it a rumor? If it's true it has me worried. I don't see how well that would mesh with the tone of the film if they're just tacking on humor in there.

 

[kalhawj]

Ironman 3 did $4,615,742 it's second Monday so if BvS did 3.1 Mil perhaps it can still pull through to 850+ mill. I guess we won't know for sure until after it's third weekend. International might surprise us.