BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[Poni_Boy]

So a movie goes from a nearly 70% drop to less than a 50% drop in one week. Unless they fixed the movie and made it better over the past week, this isn't going to happen...

Well, to be fair, there's only so much it can drop. More than 50% is just terrible any way you slice it at this point.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I think it's possible it holds better since its second weekend drop was relative to its huge OW.

Good point. I'm sticking with a 60-65% drop according to Watchmen and Snyder's other film Sucker Punch

 

[johnboy3434]

So a movie goes from a nearly 70% drop to less than a 50% drop in one week. Unless they fixed the movie and made it better over the past week, this isn't going to happen...

The further you drop on the first week, the less there is to lose on the second. I'm not just being a smartass, that's how the math can work out. Percentage-wise, the movie hasn't been in freefall this week like it was last week.

 

[Stark Bauer]

The further you drop on the first week, the less there is to lose on the second. I'm not just being a smartass, that's how the math can work out. Percentage-wise, the movie hasn't been in freefall this week like it was last week.

Yeah it's definitely evening out. I still think we will be seeing daily drops of 60% until it levels out at 50% by the time the Jungle Book comes out

 

[Kanon]

Well, to be fair, there's only so much it can drop. More than 50% is just terrible any way you slice it at this point.

More than 50% is very likely though. I believe we should expect 26M, but 22M-25M is a very possible outcome.

 

[Poni_Boy]

More than 50% is very likely though. I believe we should expect 26M, but 22M-25M is a very possible outcome.

Cosigned

 

[Stark Bauer]

I'm going to keep arguing a 60-65% drop lol.

For starters, BvS dropped 70% WITHOUT competition. Now we have some form of competition with The Boss. It will be even worse next week when The Jungle Book actually steals away some of its IMAX/premium screens. I'm expecting a drop of at least 500 theatres for week 4

 

[SomeOldGuy]

UPDATE: Warner Bros. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is now looking like it will come in lower with a -50% to -55% decline with $23.1M to $25.65M which is just shy of the three century mark with a running cume through its third weekend of $296.4M-$298.9M. Now, Warners wasn’t expecting the Zack Snyder film to cross $300M this weekend, rather during CinemaCon this coming week. I hear that the magic number internally which will really make Warner execs truly happy is $800M. Despite buzz that advance ticket sales are clicking for Melissa McCarthy headliner The Boss, the R-rated pic is now looking at a $8M Friday –including last night’s near $1M — and a $21M FSS. Older women plan their visits to the cinema in groups, so there’s a chance that its ticket sales could improve by nightfall. STX Entertainment’s first person shooter Hardcore Henry is looking at $2.4M for today, coming in closer to the lower end of its projections with $7M. Fox Searchlight’s Demolition isn’t set to wow with a $1M to $1.5M opening for the weekend. More later.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-weekend-box-office-batman-v-superman-melissa-mccarthy-1201734178/

 

[Kanon]

I'm going to keep arguing a 60-65% drop lol.

For starters, BvS dropped 70% WITHOUT competition. Now we have some form of competition with The Boss. It will be even worse next week when The Jungle Book actually steals away some of its IMAX/premium screens. I'm expecting a drop of at least 500 theatres for week 4

That kind of drop would be a tragedy, and would lose to The Boss for sure. I'm not saying it's impossible, BTW, just a big hit, something to talk about for years to come.

 

[Poni_Boy]

UPDATE: Warner Bros. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is now looking like it will come in lower with a -50% to -55% decline with $23.1M to $25.65M which is just shy of the three century mark with a running cume through its third weekend of $296.4M-$298.9M. Now, Warners wasn’t expecting the Zack Snyder film to cross $300M this weekend, rather during CinemaCon this coming week. I hear that the magic number internally which will really make Warner execs truly happy is $800M. Despite buzz that advance ticket sales are clicking for Melissa McCarthy headliner The Boss, the R-rated pic is now looking at a $8M Friday –including last night’s near $1M — and a $21M FSS. Older women plan their visits to the cinema in groups, so there’s a chance that its ticket sales could improve by nightfall. STX Entertainment’s first person shooter Hardcore Henry is looking at $2.4M for today, coming in closer to the lower end of its projections with $7M. Fox Searchlight’s Demolition isn’t set to wow with a $1M to $1.5M opening for the weekend. More later.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-weekend-box-office-batman-v-superman-melissa-mccarthy-1201734178/

Aaaaand there it is. First of half a dozen readjustments for the weekend

 

[Webhead38]

UPDATE: Warner Bros. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is now looking like it will come in lower with a -50% to -55% decline with $23.1M to $25.65M which is just shy of the three century mark with a running cume through its third weekend of $296.4M-$298.9M. Now, Warners wasn’t expecting the Zack Snyder film to cross $300M this weekend, rather during CinemaCon this coming week. I hear that the magic number internally which will really make Warner execs truly happy is $800M. Despite buzz that advance ticket sales are clicking for Melissa McCarthy headliner The Boss, the R-rated pic is now looking at a $8M Friday –including last night’s near $1M — and a $21M FSS. Older women plan their visits to the cinema in groups, so there’s a chance that its ticket sales could improve by nightfall. STX Entertainment’s first person shooter Hardcore Henry is looking at $2.4M for today, coming in closer to the lower end of its projections with $7M. Fox Searchlight’s Demolition isn’t set to wow with a $1M to $1.5M opening for the weekend. More later.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-weekend-box-office-batman-v-superman-melissa-mccarthy-1201734178/

I think that's allot of studio posturing there. Those numbers are way too inflated and there are no ticket receipts for today to back up what Friday will look like for BVS yet.

 

[db85usa]

Aaaaand there it is. First of half a dozen readjustments for the weekend

The professionals have been up and down on their predictions lol. Been saying for over a week that I expect $18-$22M this weekend. Really leaning on a figure somewhere in between that. If The Boss knocks it from the #1 spot, a lot of people in this thread are going to go

 

[wobbly]

'Happy' with $800mil?
I think not....

 

[Poni_Boy]

The professionals have been up and down on their predictions lol. Been saying for over a week that I expect $18-$22M this weekend. Really leaning on a figure somewhere in between that. If The Boss knocks it from the #1 spot, a lot of people in this thread are going to go

Yep. A lot of posturing going on there. I like Deadline for their quick posting of data but whenever they interject opinions I'm like

 

[MrsKent26]

I reckon it'll land around $800m or so, which is probably a good $300-400 million less than WB wanted.

 

[Kanon]

I don't have my numbers at hand, but I think ending the weekend with a $299M gross is close to the performance of F7 (I remember expecting that a few days ago)

 

[wobbly]

Aaaaand there it is. First of half a dozen readjustments for the weekend

They are already spinning that $800mil is happy days. By the time they are done the bar is gonna be subterranean....

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I don't have my numbers at hand, but I think ending the weekend with a $299M gross is close to the performance of F7 (I remember expecting that a few days ago)

One of the posters on bot put up this graph...

So yeah pretty close...

 

[johnboy3434]

I think implicit meaning of "happy" here is "happy given that things have been such a gut-punch thus far".

 

[Double B]

"Truly happy" with $800m?!!!!

On what earth?!

Yes I too am overjoyed when I break even without making a penny profit.

 

[Poni_Boy]

"Truly happy" with $800m?!!!!

On what earth?!

Yes I too am overjoyed when I break even without making a penny profit.

Isn't that why people work? To only pay the bills and have nothing left over? Murica

 

[Kanon]

Mmmm, I'm not sure they break even with $800M. It was reported that the budget+publicity was almost 415M, and the cut of the box office that goes to Warner (Deadline had it at 55% of DOM, 40% overseas, 25% of China), it's like $60M in the red.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Isn't that why people work? To only pay the bills and have nothing left over? Murica

So basically WB is exactly like when I got paid today. "Yay, I have money. (Does budget) Annnnd I'm broke."

 

[WilliamK99]

This movie was supposed to make a billion plus, anyone that says otherwise is full of crap. Two of the most iconic superheroes of all time and they can't even make 900 million, it has to be stinging WB in a huge way...This weekend will be another rude awakening IMO when they lose to a horrible comedy in the box office...

 

[jokesonm3]

True under a billion is a straight up disappointment.