BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[Lily Adler]

I remember Fanboys screaming for months that BVS would flourish due to lack of competition, and stay on top for weeks. Now look at it, can't even beat a universally panned, low budget, R-rated comedy.

And next week it will fall out of the top 5.

The power of Snyder...

 

[Poni_Boy]

Are they owned by WB? They spin for BvS have been very apparent and embarrassing. Not just this week either.

No but Penske (owner) is close friends with WB folks. If you read the Deadline pieces carefully you can see where the writers slip in little bits of how they really feel about this movie's performance even though the whole article has a forced "everything's great!" theme

 

[johnboy3434]

No but Penske (owner) is close friends with WB folks. If you read the Deadline pieces carefully you can see where the writers slip in little bits of how they really feel about this movie's performance even though the whole article has a forced "everything's great!" theme

Eh, I tend not to get involved in conspiracy theorizing unless the source in question is actually owned by the company being discussed. For example, I know Time-Warner has a stake in RottenTomatoes, but the majority owner is Comcast... and the results were so bad they could hardly be trying to spin it, anyway.

 

[Arach Knight]

Especially when there is no other competition in the theater, and this should not be a significant threat to a movie of BvS status.

Batman v Superman has been out for exactly fifteen days, and it still got trounced by a critically panned R rated comedy. And Zootopia was released three weeks before Batman v Superman, yet Zootopia still has enough box office draw to be comfortably in third place. So you are correct, Batman v Superman should be succeeding since it's only competition are a month old family film, and a low-interest comedy. Yet, the fact that Batman v Superman barely outperformed the former, and got beat out by the latter, does not bode well.

This film has no legs. By now, toxic word-of-mouth has done enough damage to make people opt out of seeing this film in favor of waiting thirty more days for the other superhero blockbuster, Captain America Civil War. The only way I believe this film will retain enough momentum to inch closer to the $1 billion mark is if they do a rerelease in June of the R rated director's cut.

 

[kedrell]

Wouldn't that mean BvS needed 500 to break even? I'm mainly missing the part that accounts for the 400million dollar discrepancy is all.

Well I said we didn't really know what the marketing budget was for IM2 which causes some uncertainty...and even the production budget reports are not 100% sure what was spent on it(some say $170m, some say $200m but that at least gives us a range to work with). Now blockbusters typically spent about $75m on marketing, give or take $25m. This was 6 years ago and marketing budgets have ballooned out of control since then with behemoths like BvS & TASM2 spending $150-200m on marketing alone. We have al least a good idea of what BvS spent there($150m is what's being said) so we can zero in on what the movie needs to earn to be profitable from theatrical release only. Studios tend to negotiate with exhibitors to the tune of the studios keeping 50%-66% of their box office revenue depending on the film itself. Bigger more guaranteed winners(which is a group BvS surely would have been placed in prior to release) probably command a higher % for the studio as they are a safer bet for the exhibitors to bring in lots of $. The less sure a movie is to be a hit then the exhibitors probably want a higher percentage on the initial box office.

So let's assume BvS had a 66% cut for the studios(and I'm only talking DOM here....OS is a whole other story as each individual country has their own tax laws and different % that the studio gets to keep) with a $250m production budget and a $150m marketing budget for a $400m sum they need to recoup. The movie is heading for around a $340m DOM finish(or so) so the studio would get back $227m towards that $400m hole they are in. That means they would need to have a profit of $173m from OS to break even. I don't know what % all averaged out studios get from OS because not all countries are created equally. Some have stringent taxes(china almost certainly does as I've heard that studios only keep 15% of their earnings there) and others not as much. I know damn well that when you average them all out the % studios would keep would be less than 50% by a considerable margin which is why North America is still so important to them as it's not only the world's biggest market but also the one most friendly to them tax-wise. But let's ballpark the OS take for studios to be 35%, which is probably close. That's means BvS would need around $495m OS added to the DOM total to break even at $835m. Now most were saying $800m to break even so I buy that, my OS % is probably a bit low. But it's in the ballpark.

IM2 however could have had a combined budget of anywhere from $220m($170m+$50m) to $300m($200m+$100m). Like BvS, it was a sure hit and so probably commanded a better % from DOM exhibitors(I'll guess a 60/40 split in the studio's favor...not quite as good as what I gave BvS). OS has changed a lot in the last 6 years but I'll keep that % the same at 35%. IM2 made $312m DOM so that's $187m towards the budget. It made $311m OS so that counts as $109m towards the budget for a total of $298m that they got to keep going towards the budget leaving them anywhere from $2m in the hole to a profit margin of $78m(again, only talking theatrically here). Worth noting is Marvel's notorious frugality so I'd bet it landing closer to the $78m profit level than the other end. I can totally see Marvel in 2010(this is pre-Disney empire days) only being willing to spend $50m on marketing.

So BvS could still very well end up making less profit for WB than IM2 did for Marvel even though they are playing at different levels.

 

[Kanon]

Well I said we didn't really know what the marketing budget was for IM2 which causes some uncertainty...and even the production budget reports are not 100% sure what was spent on it(some say $170m, some say $200m but that at least gives us a range to work with). Now blockbusters typically spent about $75m on marketing, give or take $25m. This was 6 years ago and marketing budgets have ballooned out of control since then with behemoths like BvS & TASM2 spending $150-200m on marketing alone. We have al least a good idea of what BvS spent there($150m is what's being said) so we can zero in on what the movie needs to earn to be profitable from theatrical release only. Studios tend to negotiate with exhibitors to the tune of the studios keeping 50%-66% of their box office revenue depending on the film itself. Bigger more guaranteed winners(which is a group BvS surely would have been placed in prior to release) probably command a higher % for the studio as they are a safer bet for the exhibitors to bring in lots of $. The less sure a movie is to be a hit then the exhibitors probably want a higher percentage on the initial box office.

So let's assume BvS had a 66% cut for the studios(and I'm only talking DOM here....OS is a whole other story as each individual country has their own tax laws and different % that the studio gets to keep) with a $250m production budget and a $150m marketing budget for a $400m sum they need to recoup. The movie is heading for around a $340m DOM finish(or so) so the studio would get back $227m towards that $400m hole they are in. That means they would need to have a profit of $173m from OS to break even. I don't know what % all averaged out studios get from OS because not all countries are created equally. Some have stringent taxes(china almost certainly does as I've heard that studios only keep 15% of their earnings there) and others not as much. I know damn well that when you average them all out the % studios would keep would be less than 50% by a considerable margin which is why North America is still so important to them as it's not only the world's biggest market but also the one most friendly to them tax-wise. But let's ballpark the OS take for studios to be 35%, which is probably close. That's means BvS would need around $495m OS added to the DOM total to break even at $835m. Now most were saying $800m to break even so I buy that, my OS % is probably a bit low. But it's in the ballpark.

IM2 however could have had a combined budget of anywhere from $220m($170m+$50m) to $300m($200m+$100m). Like BvS, it was a sure hit and so probably commanded a better % from DOM exhibitors(I'll guess a 60/40 split in the studio's favor...not quite as good as what I gave BvS). OS has changed a lot in the last 6 years but I'll keep that % the same at 35%. IM2 made $312m DOM so that's $187m towards the budget. It made $311m OS so that counts as $109m towards the budget for a total of $298m that they got to keep going towards the budget leaving them anywhere from $2m in the hole to a profit margin of $78m(again, only talking theatrically here). Worth noting is Marvel's notorious frugality so I'd bet it landing closer to the $78m profit level than the other end. I can totally see Marvel in 2010(this is pre-Disney empire days) only being willing to spend $50m on marketing.

So BvS could still very well end up making less profit for WB than IM2 did for Marvel even though they are playing at different levels.

A deadline article estimated that Warner would keep 55% of DOM, 40% of OS, except for China where WB gets the 25%.

 

[Sithborg]

So, The Boss is likely to beat BvS. Wow.

 

[kedrell]

A deadline article estimated that Warner would keep 55% of DOM, 40% of OS, except for China where WB gets the 25%.

Point being that it's all estimation as we don't have exact numbers. They gave BvS less on DOM than I did and more on OS but it likely would have evened out in the end. Basically what the consensus is saying is true, BvS needs a minimum of $800m WW to cover WB's costs. Maybe more than that but definitely not less without some extra variable like product placement which was used in this film's predecessor's favor to cover all it's marketing costs. I didn't see that much obvious product placement in this movie(MoS was just gonzo with it all over the place) so I doubt they had the same deal worked out.

So even if this movie turns a profit(and I think it will), it's going to be by relatively razor thin margins(like less than $50m in pure profit earned for the studio to cover their other 2016 films). That's not good news for them at all as tentpoles aren't just supposed to justify their own existence $-wise but are supposed to prop up all the smaller films the studio has coming out for the year. BvS will provide scant cover for other WB films this year.

 

[kedrell]

So, The Boss is likely to beat BvS. Wow.

 

[Stark Bauer]

For those who think the box office for JL will be great no matter what, they should think back to another WB released film... The Matrix... Matrix Reloaded had a HUGE opening weekend but it sucked horribly... So bad that when Matrix Revolutions was released many stayed home refusing to waste their money on that crap... WB is on the verge of repeating history...

This. As I have said a few times already, The Boss will take number one with 24m. BvS makes under 20m.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Revising my estimates for the 5th time on how much BvS will make over the next 4 months domestically:

Week 1: $209 million actual, my prediction: 207
Week 2: $(64.2 actual) my prediction: 75 million (-64%)
Week 3: $25.78 (-60%)
Week 4: $7.7 million (-70%) *The Jungle Book is uncaged*
Week 5: $3.85 million (-50%)
Week 6: $1.93 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%) *Captain America: Civil War is deployed*
Weeks 8-16: $3 million

Grand Total: $316.46 domestic
+ 520 international
836.46 WW
They need to make 925 according to Deadline

Previous Predictions

Prediction #4 $333.75 million (2.01 multiplier)
Prediction #3 $351.1 million (2.115 multiplier),
Prediction #2 $362 million (2.18 multiplier),


Initial prediction #1
Week 1: $207 million
Week 2: $100 million
Week 3: $40 million
Grand Total: $382 million (1.906 multiplier),

 

[kedrell]

All I can say is that they better all hope their mother's change their names to Martha.

 

[luca_frontino]

To anyone blaming on Snyder, Nolan, Goyer, Terrio or WB, you're all projecting your personal preferences onto the masses. That's not how box office works.

This movie simply had not enough marketability to perform on par with Avengers for a series of different reasons, many of which we can only speculate on.

But, I dare tell you, if one of the lead actors died before the release of the movie, the box office gross would have gone through the roof, even if they released the same cut which is in theaters now.
It happened before with The Dark Knight and Furious 7, which outgrew their predecessors by a long margin.

 

[OdinSon]

To anyone blaming on Snyder, Nolan, Goyer, Terrio or WB, you're all projecting your personal preferences onto the masses. That's not how box office works.

This movie simply had not enough marketability to perform on par with Avengers for a series of different reasons, many of which we can only speculate on.

But, I dare tell you, if one of the lead actors died before the release of the movie, the box office gross would have gone through the roof, even if the movie released now was the same cut.
It happened before with The Dark Knight and Furious 7, which outgrew their predecessors by a long margin.

Right. RT score of 29% and cinema score of B says nothing about the movie. We are just projecting our personal preferences on the masses if we think it is bad.... Nevermind that the same can be said about those who think it is good. They too are projecting their personal preferences on the masses.

 

[FunkMiller]

To anyone blaming on Snyder, Nolan, Goyer, Terrio or WB, you're all projecting your personal preferences onto the masses. That's not how box office works.

This movie simply had not enough marketability to perform on par with Avengers for a series of different reasons, many of which we can only speculate on.

But, I dare tell you, if one of the lead actors died before the release of the movie, the box office gross would have gone through the roof, even if they released the same cut which is in theaters now.
It happened before with The Dark Knight and Furious 7, which outgrew their predecessors by a long margin.

Did you know The Nile is not just a river in Egypt?

 

[Stark Bauer]

To anyone blaming on Snyder, Nolan, Goyer, Terrio or WB, you're all projecting your personal preferences onto the masses. That's not how box office works.

This movie simply had not enough marketability to perform on par with Avengers for a series of different reasons, many of which we can only speculate on.

But, I dare tell you, if one of the lead actors died before the release of the movie, the box office gross would have gone through the roof, even if they released the same cut which is in theaters now.
It happened before with The Dark Knight and Furious 7, which outgrew their predecessors by a long margin.

Right. Because BATMAN and SUPERMAN are less marketable than Deadpool? I would argue that WB's marketing department were the real MVPs here. They were the saving grace for this movie in the weeks leading up to its release. They did their best with the final product they were given

Dude. Really. Someone has to die? Brandon Lee died in The Crow that didn't do much for its BoxOffice. Poorly written movies such as BvS deserves what it is getting. Zack Snyder films are notorious for being all style no substance no story.

 

[mightiest_mortal]

Wow. Every opportunity this film has to do badly it just really out does itself doesn't it?

 

[titansupes]

To anyone blaming on Snyder, Nolan, Goyer, Terrio or WB, you're all projecting your personal preferences onto the masses. That's not how box office works.

This movie simply had not enough marketability to perform on par with Avengers for a series of different reasons, many of which we can only speculate on.

But, I dare tell you, if one of the lead actors died before the release of the movie, the box office gross would have gone through the roof, even if they released the same cut which is in theaters now.
It happened before with The Dark Knight and Furious 7, which outgrew their predecessors by a long margin.

Oh, b******t.

 

[Light]

I will credit BVS for one thing, these batch of apologists that it has spawned are a new bred unto themselves. Some of the excuses I have heard leave you scratching your head.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Wow. Every opportunity this film has to do badly it just really out does itself doesn't it?

Yes. Aside from a bs opening weekend "record" yes this movie has failed on every level. It's tragic

 

[luca_frontino]

Right. RT score of 29% and cinema score of B says nothing about the movie. We are just projecting our personal preferences on the masses if we think it is bad.... Nevermind that the same can be said about those who think it is good. They too are projecting their personal preferences on the masses.

You're forgetting how much the mass audience's (including critics) appeal over dramas is quite poor.

"The Dark Knight" was a movie that, at its time of release, would not have made the same success without Heath's tragic demise, because it was essentially a crime drama featuring Batman, Joker and Two Face.
I remember leaving the theater kind of depressed by the movie, but I never would have dare call it a bad feature.

Now, go look up RT scores of all crime dramas released in a year.
They're always generally treated very poorly, because they don't have mass appeal.
For example, "Blitz" starring Jason Statham, a very dark movie which had a scene so violent I had to turn it off, stands at 6.2 on IMDb and 48% on RT with an average of 5.1/10 from critics and 36% with an average of 3/5 from audience.
Does it make the movie an objective disgrace?
No, I wouldn't dare judge it like that.
Technically, it's done very well, it's just not a family movie.
I might actually give it another chance when I'll be in the right mood to rewatch it.

To conclude, the market is now geared towards the Star Wars/Marvel packaging, but WB tried the same thing with Green Lantern and the audience responded badly, so how can you blame them for going the MoS/BvS route?

 

[Light]

Yes. Aside from a bs opening weekend "record" yes this movie has failed on every level. It's tragic

If you said two months ago that this movie couldn't lock a billion you would have been looked at like a mad man. I mean for crying out loud this is BatmanvSuperman on screen together for the first time, this is meant to be an event film.

 

[Poni_Boy]

If you said two months ago that this movie couldn't lock a billion you would have been looked at like a mad man. I mean for crying out loud this is BatmanvSuperman on screen together for the first time, this is meant to be an event film.

I did say it. And I was called a troll to no end. I would say I feel vindicated but this movie and everything surrounding its failure is so bad I just feel bad for it. BvS will be remembered as an Internet meme and nothing more. Like dancing Spidey in SM3

 

[Light]

I did say it. And I was called a troll to no end. I would say I feel vindicated but this movie and everything surrounding its failure is so bad I just feel bad for it. BvS will be remembered as an Internet meme and nothing more. Like dancing Spidey in SM3

Lol the amount of places I have seen the Martha gag been used I will have to agree with you there.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Any word on the international numbers for this weekend yet?