BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[InCali]

I was reading a good article today about this and they said that WB benefits more from an unperformed BO than one where they didn't make the movie at all.

I suggest reading War and Peace, Les Miserables, and David Copperfield.

And, I would suggest that WB benefits more by making a killing on a property that should be shredding at the box office than by having said property underperforming. Doing nothing at all is not an option for a corporation and the comparison is, well, think about it. Those high profile properties are hard to come by and you need to maximize your profits from them (if that's your gig). If you want to look at studios in this light, the idea of a relay race comes to mind. Your anchor better run a strong race or the team is screwed.

 

[InCali]

i felt it was fun because unlike BVS even TDK had fun moments
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not to mention the funny dark humor brought on by the joker

A good point, but not what I was getting at. Yeah, there were some funny moments. Personally, I loved the BB restaurant scene where Bruce showed up with the gals who were "from Europe".

The Nolan movies were, overall (and strictly IMO) not "fun" movies (though they had fun aspects). I didn't consider TWS a "fun" movie either. GotG was a fun movie and I needed that after Crapformers: Age of SuckStinkTion and TASM2.

Anyone who puts MoS or BvS in the same category as the Nolan movies will have to, minimally, give me a lobotomy before I see it.

EDIT: Sorry I got off track on this one.

 

[Logan0327]

yikes deadline is projecting a 8.5 million weekend for BVS

 

[Webhead38]

^^^ Looks like my prediction was too generous at $9.2 million and I took into account the loss of IMAX and 3D screens. Batman and Robin is now whipping this film on per screen average gross and that's with BVS having twice the amount in ticket price and 800 plus more screenings in a noncompetitive month. Batman & Robin is also losing less screens at this point than BVS. So for all the hype over it's initial weekend gross, this film has collapsed harder and farther than the Schumacher film. And that's with Superman and Wonder Woman in it for help. Wow...

 

[Xeno]

yikes deadline is projecting a 8.5 million weekend for BVS

On Friday BvS made about $2.2M, which is pretty horrible. It's likely to end its domestic run around $325M.

 

[Orba]

yikes deadline is projecting a 8.5 million weekend for BVS

Yikes, that's below all of the projections for the weekend. Thats what, about a 63% drop?

What would a drop like this do to the projections for final domestic?

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

A good point, but not what I was getting at. Yeah, there were some funny moments. Personally, I loved the BB restaurant scene where Bruce showed up with the gals who were "from Europe".

The Nolan movies were, overall (and strictly IMO) not "fun" movies (though they had fun aspects). I didn't consider TWS a "fun" movie either. GotG was a fun movie and I needed that after Crapformers: Age of SuckStinkTion and TASM2.

Anyone who puts MoS or BvS in the same category as the Nolan movies will have to, minimally, give me a lobotomy before I see it.

EDIT: Sorry I got off track on this one.

I don't know why YOU would be having a lobotomy over someone else's opinion but... SIGH. Par for the course with the reactions around here.

 

[WBwins]

I don't know why YOU would be having a lobotomy over someone else's opinion but... SIGH. Par for the course with the reactions around here.

Welcome back Krypton Inc

 

[AnneFan]

I don't know why YOU would be having a lobotomy over someone else's opinion but... SIGH. Par for the course with the reactions around here.

It's madness.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Let's just say there is a certain drop off in quality from the Nolan films and Snyder's output thus far. And maybe (just maybe?) this discrepancy in part explains the disappointing box office.

 

[Mjölnir]

Not sure what you consider a bad movie. Batman Begins didn't make much and had great reviews. Superman Returns isn't exactly considered a bad movie, even though divisive, but ended up losing money. The fact is that we have worst movies than these two that have made a lot more money.

Having Batman and/or Superman in a movie isn't enough to make a lot of money. Even if the movies are good, they aren't guaranteed to make money.

I just pointed out pretty valid reasons to why the results shouldn't be shocking to anyone.

At the end of the day, the movie will still make a profit. Not quite as much as WB would like, but to make money is always better than to lose money, and the fact is that WB has lost money with DC characters in the past. So even though everyone is talking about this as if it was a big tragedy, WB is probably not that concerned.

A big reason why Batman Begins didn't do that well is likely that Batman & Robin almost killed the franchise. The reason there was hype for TDK isn't only due to Ledger's death, it was also that people eventually caught on that Begins was a good movie.

BvS of course comes after MoS, which wasn't universally liked, but it's not even remotely the same thing as B&R and Batman is trailing the TDK trilogy, so there's much more of a positive wind going for it.

It was seen by that the hype created the big opening weekend and the word of mouth set the drop off rate.

You're right in that it could certainly have been worse, but WB certainly hoped for more not just financially but as a foundation to build the entire DCEU on. They probably hoped to make at least IM3 numbers and in one single step basically catch up to the MCU in terms of popularity. Now they will have to keep building and I hope that SS and WW will be more liked. Especially since I can't have much hope for another Snyder film.

 

[metaphysician]

Deadline before with an expected take of 925 million said it will likely turn a minimum profit of $207.9M once all revenue streams are accounted. If ending at 850 million, it would be 132 million in profit according to that report. It would put the break even around 720 million.

That was including *all* post-release revenue sources, from VOD to Blu-Ray to broadcast TV licensing. If a movie needs those to make a profit, it has failed in theater.

 

[metaphysician]

With marketing costs, there is no doubt in my mind the break even is north of 900 or at least very close to the 9. I'm not an industry insider, but these are the kinds of figures we see more of, crazy high numbers needed just to break even.

Imagine investing 400-500 million in securities in this market uptrend post 2009, as opposed to producing and marketing a film. With a ten percent return, that's 50 million in your pocket (pre-tax) at the end of the year. To think that WB wouldn't even get that kind of return on their flagship movie of the decade after Harry Potter? Inexcusable. Time and money... down the drain.

Sorry people. I had to put things into context. I'll get over it though.

Which is something to consider: from the studio's perspective, its really not enough to just break even, and maybe turn a little profit. They need to get more benefit from having made the movie than they would have gotten for just sticking the production and marketing budget in bonds and index funds. Opportunity costs are a real thing, and while there are intangible benefits a movie production could earn ( like "good brand positioning for future products" ), BvS hasn't exactly earned any of those, either.

So, in the end, if your left with a movie that has at *best* no gains in brand power, no good positioning for future products, and which brought in less profit than buying a stack of government bonds? You have unhappy stockholders.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yikes, that's below all of the projections for the weekend. Thats what, about a 63% drop?

What would a drop like this do to the projections for final domestic?

It may flatline somewhere in the mid-320s now. 2x multiplier would be 332 and that looks increasingly out of reach.

 

[metaphysician]

Looking at these numbers, it's not surprising that JL hasn't started shooting as they said they would. There is no way they can keep Snyder after this debacle.

It really shouldn't have taken him torpedoing their world-building franchise for WB to wake up, but here we are.

Has this been confirmed? I thought they actually did start filming on the 11th?

 

[metaphysician]

umm what?? BVS and MOS had over 100 million OW if your name isn't Marvel,Pixar Or Star Wars you aint putting a film next to justice league lol

You won't put your film on the same weekend, but with the cratering drops they've tended to have, nobody will be reluctant to put their film out the *next* weekend. Especially since, with the reviews and reaction being even worse than with MoS, most marketers are going to assume their next big release will have worse performance ( they don't have the Batman card to play anymore, to prop up things ).

 

[Incarnadine]

Another brutal weekend for BvS. Even in today's short attention span movie going crows it's incredibly rare for a movie not to reach 2x its opening weekend, but it is a near certainty now that BvS will pull off this feat. After another big drop and what will surely be huge screen losses in the ensuing weeks as more big movies open I can't see it getting the $332m it needs to double its $166m OW. After this weekend it will be just under $311m, and that's if the estimates don't turn out to be a bit on the generous side.
Such a shame too, the idea had potential and the casting was decent enough, but the writing and direction was sorely lacking.

 

[Orba]

It may flatline somewhere in the mid-320s now. 2x multiplier would be 332 and that looks increasingly out of reach.

Yeah, but I won't rule out it getting that 2x multiplier as I think WB might try to nurse it over the line in order to avoid it, even if it means them having to keep in in the cinemas as long as they possibly can. Even doing a cinema release of the R-rated version despite the marketing costs being higher than the expected Box Office of a release like that.

 

[The Joker]

yikes deadline is projecting a 8.5 million weekend for BVS

Not surprised. I knew Jungle Book would be the final nail in the coffin for this movie.

A big reason why Batman Begins didn't do that well is likely that Batman & Robin almost killed the franchise. The reason there was hype for TDK isn't only due to Ledger's death, it was also that people eventually caught on that Begins was a good movie.

They were both drops in the ocean compared to the buzz created by the amazing worldwide marketing campaign for TDK;

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[Iceman]

That would be a huge fall at this stage!

 

[Flint Marko]

It's only "shocking" for people who aren't very realistic. If you play close attention to the cinematic history of these characters and some other factors, you will see that this movie always had a very high chance of making quite less than 1B. Even if it had been better received critically.

Nope, it had a real good shot at making a billion. Please note how front-loaded it was, clearly there was a huge appetite for seeing these icons face off. And yet it immediately suffered one of the biggest drops ever for a superhero movie with no real competition to speak of simply because audiences didn't really care for what they saw. It had all the potential in the world, but dropped the ball entirely. It's undeniable.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Lol at least he's consistent. Reminds me of a debate I had with a young earth Creationist recently. Some folks live in reality, some create their own.

 

[The Joker]

Nope, it had a real good shot at making a billion. Please note how front-loaded it was, clearly there was a huge appetite for seeing these icons face off. And yet it immediately suffered one of the biggest drops ever for a superhero movie with no real competition to speak of simply because audiences didn't really care for what they saw. It had all the potential in the world, but dropped the ball entirely. It's undeniable.

 

[WilliamK99]

Wow, that drop, usually in it's 4th week, a movie's legs stabilizes, no matter how hard it initially dropped, BvS is dropping harder than I have ever seen a movie drop before...But good thing WB planned for and wanted this to happen, at least that is the feeling I get when I read some of the rationalizing for this crash and burn at the Box Office...

 

[Kobra]

Nope, it had a real good shot at making a billion. Please note how front-loaded it was, clearly there was a huge appetite for seeing these icons face off. And yet it immediately suffered one of the biggest drops ever for a superhero movie with no real competition to speak of simply because audiences didn't really care for what they saw. It had all the potential in the world, but dropped the ball entirely. It's undeniable.

I never said it didn't have a good shot. I said there was no reason to be SHOCKED. Pay more attention, please.

When you say that "audiences didn't care for what they saw" what do you mean? 90% didn't like it? 80% didn't like it? What percentage needs to like a movie for it to make great money? And when you answer, provide mathematical proof of what you're saying, because i'm not interested in speculation being treated as facts. Also, provide me some proof that the critics horrible score didn't stop a lot of people from spending money on the movie. People that could probably have helped the movie to achieve 1B or way more.