BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[chicagodave]

Agreed this movie is not a failure but definetely a massive dissapointment. Especially domestically where it looks like it wont even beat out Deadpool which considering it was rated R is even more incredible.

 

[Kobra]

After seeing the full movie, yes, I agree. I'm not shocked it didn't make a billion either.
However if you had told me or WB a few months back that BvS would limp it's way to $830 million worldwide, there would certainly be some shock. You don't spend as much money as they did hoping to make less than a billion. You can deny that all you want, but you won't be able to re-write history.

I don't think you understand that it doesn't really matter what they or you hope for. All evidence available points out to the fact that there was always a good chance this movie could make less than a billion. If you choose to ignore some important factors such as Zack's background, MOS's performance and Affleck's poor mass appeal, that's another story.

When I say "audiences didn't care for what they saw", I'm again referring to the massive box office drop that, if you've been paying attention, has only gotten steeper and steeper with each week. That's really all that I need to show this movie wasn't particularly well received. As Kahran pointed out:

That's kind of a vague statement. What does "well received" really means? Because the reality is that neither you or i know what percentage of the audience needs to like a movie like this in order for it to break a billion. If 60% liked the movie, that's still the majority. Maybe that's not enough people to make a lot of money though.

You can try and blame the drop primarily on the poor critical reception but had this been embraced by audiences in any significant way the numbers would look quite different. People went and saw the film in droves on opening weekend and it didn't seen the WOM was strong enough to get others interested.
If you're going to try and convince us that audiences did indeed like a movie as front-loaded as this, the burden of proof is on you. But with the underwhelming cinemascore (on the same level as Catwoman and GL), the massive drop in RT audience score (which may not seem super low but keep in mind it started with tens of thousands of very high votes before people had actually got the chance to see it), as well as the general conversation that has surrounded the film since it's premiere (the sad Affleck video is still in the news cycle on google), you're fighting an uphill battle.

I'm not trying to blame it on anything in particular, unlike you and others.I'm simply pointing out other plausible factors that most of you seem to want to ignore. Obviously, if the audiences had liked it a little better, it would have made more money. But it probably would have made more money too if the critical reception had not been so horrendous.

 

[Clark-Kent]

I think it's a good thing that the movie made enough money so that Studio keeps making DC movies but at the same time it's good that this movie under-performed, this way they will have to make movies that are "Box-Office friendly".

That is, those movies that general audience will go and see multiple
times in the theaters, for that, they have to make sure that movies are entertaining and interesting.

Hope WB learn from their mistakes.

I guess that's a good way to look at it. It did bad enough for a wake up call, but good enough to where it didn't bomb and just end the future of the DCMU. Out of this we really need Snyder to listen to where he's falling short. Bring us some joy

 

[kedrell]

Given that $2.36m Friday number for BvS(it's 4th Friday), it's very close to what IM3 made on it's 5th Friday(it's running a scant 4% ahead of IM3's number in that match up) so I did a projection using IM3's 5th weekend as a model and accounting for that 4% lead BvS's 4th weeknd has on it and came up with a $8.84m weekend projection for this 4th weekend for BvS. Now to see if it holds. Zootopia is only $250k behind on Friday and given that animated family movies tend to have much better internal multipliers on weekends than live action movies do it looks very likely that it'll beat BvS for the weekend and take the #4 spot on the chart leaving BvS in 5th place and this weekend is likely it's last time in the top 5.

 

[Wylie Times]

Lex Luthor could have saved himself some time. Instead of having that convoluted (and nonsensical) plan to take down Superman and Batman all he had to do was sent Melissa McCarthy and some jungle animals to take them down.

 

[Iceman]

Agreed this movie is not a failure but definetely a massive dissapointment. Especially domestically where it looks like it wont even beat out Deadpool which considering it was rated R is even more incredible.

What exactly is a failure? Only a film that loses money? If Episode VIII makes $1 profit is it still a success, just a disappointment? t:

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How many weeks does it have left in theater most likely?

Oh, it will hang around for a bit, I think. It's only in day 22 and even FantFourStick got 63 days (at least until Fox stopped reporting, it was still in 131 theaters then) and that was a way bigger disaster. And it will get a little boost once it hits the second-run (aka dollar) theaters. But most of that time it will be scrounging for the box office equivalent of peanuts. IMO it's got maybe $10 million domestic left in it between the end of this weekend and the opening of Civil War. After that, peanuts.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm just curious how much good will SS or WW bring before JL, IF they decide to go ahead with JL on schedule.

Because let's be honest, if big top movies like JL aren't spending $250M just in production costs you worry that WB is cheaping out on their product. But with as much as they put in BvS, you would think they'd be a little shy doing so. Again my point, for a movie like JL, how do you not go all in again?

 

[Kanon]

We should stop using "dissapointment not failure". Dissapointment is when something is expected to do something and doesn't make it, wich is a failure. Is the same thing, the difference is that dissapointment is what you feel, and failure is what the movie IS.

 

[WilliamK99]

What exactly is a failure? Only a film that loses money? If Episode VIII makes $1 profit is it still a success, just a disappointment? t:

Not true, if I have a 100 bucks and am supposed to invest it and make a profit and come back with 110 it is a disappointment

My brother gets same amount of money and comes back with 400 bucks, now compared to him I am a failure.... WB tried to get from Step 1 to Step 10 in one step and they fell on their face...Not with just this movie but with many more movies in their movie universe... They havent built up the good will with the public to have them forgive a lukewarm performance....

 

[GreenKToo]

I have no doubt that WB was expecting at least a billion, and Probably 98% of us were as well. Some were even thinking that 1.5 billion + was possible.
I know some liked it, but not enough did to go back for more and that's where you get your billion from, repeat viewings.

 

[kedrell]

We should stop using "dissapointment not failure". Dissapointment is when something is expected to do something and doesn't make it, wich is a failure. Is the same thing, the difference is that dissapointment is what you feel, and failure is what the movie IS.

I'd say failure is the overall bracket that contains disappointment at one end of the spectrum and a flop/bomb at the other end. A flop or a bomb means that the movie is going to lose money, ultimately. A disappointment means it just failed to perform as expected. Many disappointments like BvS will still end up making money so they cannot be considered bombs/flops. But all are under the umbrella of being called failures because they failed at something. This only takes into account box office, not critical reception which is separate. BvS is a box office disappointment and a critical bomb. I think that is an accurate description.

 

[kedrell]

I'm just curious how much good will SS or WW bring before JL, IF they decide to go ahead with JL on schedule.

Because let's be honest, if big top movies like JL aren't spending $250M just in production costs you worry that WB is cheaping out on their product. But with as much as they put in BvS, you would think they'd be a little shy doing so. Again my point, for a movie like JL, how do you not go all in again?

My concern is that because of BvS, SS now starts off it's lifespan in theaters in a hole which isn't fair to the movie. But fair or not, it is how it is. Such are the rules of the expanded universe franchise model. It IS a sequel to BvS at the same time being(I'm sure hopefully as far as the filmmakers are concerned) a kickoff to it's own sub-franchise. It now starts off with a negative mark against it before it's even had a chance to show all it can be. Unfortunate, but thems da breaks.

 

[brandeezy89]

I think it's a good thing that the movie made enough money so that Studio keeps making DC movies but at the same time it's good that this movie under-performed, this way they will have to make movies that are "Box-Office friendly".

That is, those movies that general audience will go and see multiple
times in the theaters, for that, they have to make sure that movies are entertaining and interesting.

Hope WB learn from their mistakes.

Of course WB will continue to make DC movies, what other properties do they have that has the potential to bring in a billion at the BO? The Harry Potter universe maybe but it's a whole different cast. I think that's why they want to buy the Bond franchise.

 

[Iceman]

Not true, if I have a 100 bucks and am supposed to invest it and make a profit and come back with 110 it is a disappointment

My brother gets same amount of money and comes back with 400 bucks, now compared to him I am a failure.... WB tried to get from Step 1 to Step 10 in one step and they fell on their face...Not with just this movie but with many more movies in their movie universe... They havent built up the good will with the public to have them forgive a lukewarm performance....

Yes, that's the point.

(I didn't make a statement. 3 sentences, 3 question marks mean zero chances to be wrong. )

 

[paulogonza]

but the Justice League of production has begun in the 12th CinemaCon zack snyder and part of the cast sent a direct message from London in the presentation of the WB on DC films including concept art and cast messages on their characters
production began on April 11 confirmed via twitter by mark huges of forbes but filming has not yet second mark should start soon

 

[Logan0327]

damn looking at the numbers there is no way BVS even beats Deadpool domestically

deadpool in its 5th weekend did better than BVS in its 4th weekend

 

[InCali]

If its box office trend from last week (against Boss) stays the same going up against JB this weekend, it will make just under 9.5M. On one hand, movies tend to hold better after a few weeks, but, on the other hand, this week it has some serious competition.

So the Friday estimates are about a 10% increase lower than they were from last Friday. If it continues the trend from last week, it will bring in about 9M for the weekend. If it continues to do worse, well, it'll be under 9M.

The reason there's such a big difference between the estimates (500K) with just a 10% drop is that the initial drop is cumulative throughout the weekend.

 

[InCali]

damn looking at the numbers there is no way BVS even beats Deadpool domestically

deadpool in its 5th weekend did better than BVS in its 4th weekend

Deadpool??? It's probably not going to pass GotG if it goes below 10M this weekend and that's looking very, very likely from where I'm sitting. Deadpool isn't even in question. Think about that; GotG and Deadpool made more money at the box office than BvS. Crazy.....

 

[Kanon]

Not sure if anyone pointed this out, but today, at day 22, BvS falls behind F7 at the box office (BvS 22 days gross: 304M, F7 22 days gross: 307M)

EDIT: projected through Sunday, it would fall behind Deadpool (BvS 24 days gross: 310.9M, Deadpool 24 days gross: 311.4M)

 

[GreenKToo]

Im waiting for a showing of BvS now. There is about 20/30 folks here. Whats surprising is three jungle book showings are sold out . I'm talking noon , 1, and 2:30 wow.

 

[warcam]

Deadpool??? It's probably not going to pass GotG if it goes below 10M this weekend and that's looking very, very likely from where I'm sitting. Deadpool isn't even in question. Think about that; GotG and Deadpool made more money at the box office than BvS. Crazy.....

That is both sad and hilarious. Imagine if Deadpool had opened in China; its WW BO may have been more than BvS, too.

 

[kedrell]

Deadpool??? It's probably not going to pass GotG if it goes below 10M this weekend and that's looking very, very likely from where I'm sitting. Deadpool isn't even in question. Think about that; GotG and Deadpool made more money at the box office than BvS. Crazy.....

If that holds true then Zootopia is actually going to beat BvS DOM and that only opened with $75m vs BvS's $166m....almost a hundred million less! If ANYONE was still around who doubted the power or critical appraisal or WOM this should shut their yap...but good!

 

[kedrell]

Im waiting for a showing of BvS now. There is about 20/30 folks here. Whats surprising is three jungle book showings are sold out . I'm talking noon , 1, and 2:30 wow.

TJB is possibly going as high as $100m this weekend. It's another hit for Disney who you'd think would be getting kinda bored with winning at this point.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Im waiting for a showing of BvS now. There is about 20/30 folks here. Whats surprising is three jungle book showings are sold out . I'm talking noon , 1, and 2:30 wow.

That shouldn't be a surprise. Boxoffice.com is projecting a $95 million OW for JB. I wouldn't be surprised if it tops 100.