BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[third3ye]

1) Rogue One

2) Civil War

3) Finding Dory

4) Beasts

5) Zootopia

Borrowing the list above, 4 out of those 5 films are from Disney, just to point out the kind of year they'll be having. Jungle Book also has a really good chance of topping Fantastic Beasts, based on early reviews and current OS performance. 2016 could be a year when no other studio except Disney has a billion dollar film, and Disney could potentially have 4 of them, possibly 5 if Jungle Book really overperforms, just utter dominance in 2016. Among rival studios, the ones with the best shots to join the billion club are Fantastic Beasts and ID: Resurgence, but I think most would agree it's a big reach for those films to hit a billion. No X-Men film has ever done a billion and I don't believe Apocalypse will buck that trend, especially going head to head with Alice 2. Also only the final HP film was able to crack a billion, so I don't think Fantastic Beasts will get there given the loose connection to the original films.

My list for top WWBO performers in 2016, in this order:
1. Rogue One
2. Civil War
3. Finding Dory
4. Zootopia
5. photo finish between BvS, Jungle Book, and Fantastic Beasts (might be closer than ppl give Jungle Book credit for)

 

[MadVillainy]

I really think people are sleeping on Independence Day Resurrection. I think it'll be in the top 5.

I would bet my house on it if Smith was returning, but I still think the nostalgia will push it high

If I had to guess
1. Rogue One
2. Civil War
3. Finding Dory
4. Fantastic Beats
5. Independence Day or Zootopia
6. Jungle Book.

EDIT: Actually I just saw that there's a new Ice Age movie coming out. While I havent watched any of them since the 2nd one (ugh) they make a good deal of change overseas. The last one made over 877 mill WW. I think that might be up there too in the top 10

 

[third3ye]

I really think people are sleeping on Independence Day Resurrection. I think it'll be in the top 5.

I would bet my house on it if Smith was returning, but I still think the nostalgia will push it high

The main reasons I doubt it'll do as well as the original (which did an incredible $817m back in 1996), even with a much higher theater count and 3D, is that Will Smith isn't returning and the concept feels very BTDT these days. Plenty of alien and destruction pr0n films get released year after year since the 90s, hard to say audiences will flock to the theaters for this sequel, which I think is safe to say no one really asked for.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I really think people are sleeping on Independence Day Resurrection. I think it'll be in the top 5.

Yup. I feel the same.

 

[MadVillainy]

The main reasons I doubt it'll do as well as the original (which did an incredible $817m back in 1996), even with a much higher theater count and 3D, is that Will Smith isn't returning and the concept feels very BTDT these days. Plenty of alien and destruction pr0n films get released year after year since the 90s, hard to say audiences will flock to the theaters for this sequel, which I think is safe to say no one really asked for.

I still think the hype is huge.

I dont think, especially after the third, that many people were asking that much for Jurassic World. At least from what i remember.

Of course with Smith it wouldve been bigger and you also bring up a good point that damn near every summer we get an alien invasion, destruction film so it does take the wind out of IDR's sails a bit.
But IDR has a great release date (despite not actually opening on Independence Day weekend for some reason). Legend of Tarzan which I dont think will be a problem and The Purge 3 open up the weekend after. And besides Tarzan there isnt a PG13 action movie until Star Trek Beyond almost a month later. Ninja Turtles opens up earlier in the month and Warcraft (which I dont think will make money) will open about 2 weeks before.

And I dont think expectations are that high on IDR. Everyone remembers Independence Day as the cheesy, fun action movie so even if critics bash it as long as it sells on the action it'll be ok.

It's going to be fun and I wouldn't discount how much nostalgia will play in

 

[InCali]

I still think the hype is huge.

I dont think, especially after the third, that many people were asking that much for Jurassic World. At least from what i remember.

Of course with Smith it wouldve been bigger and you also bring up a good point that damn near every summer we get an alien invasion, destruction film so it does take the wind out of IDR's sails a bit.
But IDR has a great release date (despite not actually opening on Independence Day weekend for some reason). Legend of Tarzan which I dont think will be a problem and The Purge 3 open up the weekend after. And besides Tarzan there isnt a PG13 action movie until Star Trek Beyond almost a month later. Ninja Turtles opens up earlier in the month and Warcraft (which I dont think will make money) will open about 2 weeks before.

And I dont think expectations are that high on IDR. Everyone remembers Independence Day as the cheesy, fun action movie so even if critics bash it as long as it sells on the action it'll be ok.

It's going to be fun and I wouldn't discount how much nostalgia will play in

It could be yuge.

 

[dark_b]

BvS still didnt make 300 million domestic?

i just found out that MOS also didnt make 300 domestic

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Pretty blah Monday numbers so far:

The Boss $1.63M
MBFGW2 $436k
Zootopia $782k
Hardcore Henry $427k

No sign of BvS numbers, as usual. Only about half an hour to market close tho, so...

 

[Kanon]

Do we know the Monday numbers yet for sure? As of Sunday, it needed about 3.4M. Monday will give us a more solid idea whether the day is today or tomorrow. Today seems likely, but I wouldn't write it in blood just yet unless you have more information than I do. I'd say above 1.6 pretty much does it (and that seems likely, but stranger things have happened).

If it can't make 3.6M with Monday+Tuesday, it would be truely a disgrace.

I'm not sure if it would be "underperforming", pretty sure it fits the description if someone expects that number for sure and it doesn't perform as well

 

[InCali]

Pretty blah Monday numbers so far:

The Boss $1.63M
MBFGW2 $436k
Zootopia $782k
Hardcore Henry $427k

No sign of BvS numbers, as usual. Only about half an hour to market close tho, so...

Color me shocked!!! t:

I think it'll do above Boss numbers and will probably hit 300M today.

It didn't take as big of a hit this weekend as I thought it might so I think you're right that's it's leveling out; though I can't call 55% in the 3rd week a very strong showing.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Color me shocked!!! t:

Same. If they say anything it will probably be what they did last time: ignore Monday's total and crow about it passing $300M today (i.e. Tuesday).

I think it'll do above Boss numbers and will probably hit 300M today.

It didn't take as big of a hit this weekend as I thought it might so I think you're right that's it's leveling out; though I can't call 55% in the 3rd week a very strong showing.

It's just running out of room before it hits the ground.

 

[Stark Bauer]

BvS makes 900k-1.5M today therefore the Boss wins again

 

[Erzengel]

Yeah, if you're going to be a banned poster trying to sneak back in. Don't make it obvious.

 

[InCali]

BvS makes 900k-1.5M today therefore the Boss wins again

You guys.....You were never a cheerleader, were you? t:

Man, you're brutal.

 

[MadVillainy]

Yeah, if you're going to be a banned poster trying to sneak back in. Don't make it obvious.

What did I miss?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What did I miss?

Nada. SSDD.

 

[InCali]

Yeah, if you're going to be a banned poster trying to sneak back in. Don't make it obvious.

Some of the stuff Lee does is funnier than any post (don't know who did what, but just sayin'). It's like some of these people should just register as "Banned and Trying to Sneak Back on".

Back on subject. I was just checking out last Monday (just below 3.2M) and it isn't out of the question to lose 50% or more from that. 300M today is far from a sure thing (though I still think it likely).

 

[InCali]

Nada. SSDD.

And some of my perfectly good posts are gone too. I should know better than answer people who are clearly, well, I don't quite know how to describe them.

When we start talking about how box office multipliers aren't bad considering how bad movies are received, well, I dunno........

 

[third3ye]

I still think the hype is huge.

I dont think, especially after the third, that many people were asking that much for Jurassic World. At least from what i remember.

Of course with Smith it wouldve been bigger and you also bring up a good point that damn near every summer we get an alien invasion, destruction film so it does take the wind out of IDR's sails a bit.
But IDR has a great release date (despite not actually opening on Independence Day weekend for some reason). Legend of Tarzan which I dont think will be a problem and The Purge 3 open up the weekend after. And besides Tarzan there isnt a PG13 action movie until Star Trek Beyond almost a month later. Ninja Turtles opens up earlier in the month and Warcraft (which I dont think will make money) will open about 2 weeks before.

And I dont think expectations are that high on IDR. Everyone remembers Independence Day as the cheesy, fun action movie so even if critics bash it as long as it sells on the action it'll be ok.

It's going to be fun and I wouldn't discount how much nostalgia will play in

All good points, we'll just have to wait and see come June. Not sure I agree with the JP comparison, as the nostalgia factor is much much higher for the Jurassic films than ID4, and there's really no other game in town when it comes to a quality live action dino movie, particularly a franchise that Spielberg gave birth to. Even Emmerich has tried to one-up his own ID4 with other disaster flicks like Godzilla, 2012, and Day After Tomorrow, not to mention other filmmakers walking down that same path. From the trailers for ID:R, it doesn't seem like Emmerich is going for anything particularly new, other than making the aliens even bigger and borrowing the Earth setting from Robotech

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looking ahead to see how sales are trending, over at movietickets.com for the last 24 hours:

25% of tix sold have been for Jungle Book
11% for The Boss
9% for BvS
9% for Civil War (!)
6% for Zootopia

 

[Erzengel]

The 2 first non 3D shows for CW on Thursday are like pretty filled already.

 

[MadVillainy]

What do you guys think will be the top 5 movies this week.

I'm thinking
1. Jungle Book
2. Barbershop 3
3. Boss
4. BvS

 

[InCali]

Does SSH ever remind you of one of those old Twilight Zone (There was a Star Trek:TNG one too) episodes where people just disappear and no one can remember them?

I think BvS will finish "just" out of the top 5 DOM and prolly a little lower than that WW (2016). I also think CA:CW will come in 2nd to Rogue 1 because the latter has a very friendly corridor. There ain't squat happening early next year.

 

[Gerontophobe]

What do you guys think will be the top 5 movies this week.

I'm thinking
1. Jungle Book
2. Barbershop 3
3. Boss
4. BvS

I'm going to go with:
1. Jungle Book ($80M)
2. Barbershop ($25M)
3. Criminal ($15M, although it looks awful)
4. The Boss ($13M)
5. BvS ($11M)
6. Zootopia ($10M, edging ever closer to BvS)

 

[Gerontophobe]

Does SSH ever remind you of one of those old Twilight Zone (There was a Star Trek:TNG one too) episodes where people just disappear and no one can remember them?

I think BvS will finish "just" out of the top 5 DOM and prolly a little lower than that WW (2016). I also think CA:CW will come in 2nd to Rogue 1 because the latter has a very friendly corridor. There ain't squat happening early next year.

I wouldn't say the competition for Rogue one is nonexistent. I'm keeping my eye on Passengers (Chris Pratt + Jennifer Lawrence + sci-fi romance) and maybe Mena as well (Doug Liman + Tom Cruise). But yeah, there aren’t any huge weekends until the second frame of February (LEGO Batman + Fifty Shades + John Wick 2); Rogue One could hold on to first for four or five weekends depending how things fall.