BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[InCali]

Studios don't usually publish their actual profit. I think TASM2 because of the Sony leaks, they only profited around $65 million. TASM2 had a $230M budget and probably a north of a $100M marketing cost. The Force Awakens, released it's numbers because when you make as much as they do why not, so they did $2B with a $900M profit.

All of Disney's subsidiaries prolly overcharged the movie so they could keep the profits down.....

Too bad about those meager merchandising profits for SW. I only paid $30 for my metal SW popcorn tub (but it doubles as one hell of an ice bucket). Still, the 2 to 1 ratio is in the ballpark.

 

[The Joker]

Anyone got any new WW predictions?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Anyone got any new WW predictions?

Not really new. Seems like best case scenario is in the high 800s. Feels like 860-something to me. Deadline thinks it will "only" drop 50-55% next weekend, which seems optimistic to me.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-jun...t-cut-criminal-box-office-preview-1201736035/

 

[wobbly]

Anyone got any new WW predictions?

Between $830 and $850mil for me atm. Depends on what's left of this things legs after Jungle book hits this weekend. Think old Sher Khan won't leave much but some battered stumps the way things look.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Think old Sher Khan won't leave much but some battered stumps the way things look.

In other words, just the...bare necessities?

 

[Webhead38]

Anyone got any new WW predictions?

Personally I think $850 to $855 million is the ceiling on this worldwide. Deadline seems to be in WB's back pocket in terms of putting the spin on this movie. The film loses all of it's premiums screens this Friday. How they surmise a similar drop from a weekend when they had the premium screens is beyond me.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Anyone got any new WW predictions?

The international drops have been really extreme.
Week 1: $256.5M
Week 2: $85M ($166M for full week)
Week 3: $34M ($65M for full week)
The very best scenario for BvS is an additional $50M overseas but I think something in the neighborhood of $35M is more likely. Domestically it might leg out to $340M which would mean a worldwide final of around $860M.

Basically I would say the ceiling is somewhere around $880M while the floor is probably around $830M, with something solidly in the middle most likely. Of course, I've consistently overestimated BvS so it may die even more quickly as JB rolls out.

 

[Vaibow]

Tragic really that it exhausted itself in 3-4 weeks. Oh well... the JL hype needs to do some amazing things.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I saw the Boss today. Good turn out. About as many people there as Batman v Superman during a weekend.

 

[Andreth]

why so expensive though? was it necessary to add so much budget? the whole Doomsday fight could have been done with less CGI effects, it looked like a red bull add.

Next time watch your budget WB/Snyder & Co!

 

[IncognitoWalrus]

Between $830 and $850mil for me atm. Depends on what's left of this things legs after Jungle book hits this weekend. Think old Sher Khan won't leave much but some battered stumps the way things look.

Just got back from a screening and my God, this is a remake that I didn't know I needed. The Jungle Book actually pushes boundaries in special effects and offers an interesting reinvention on the classic movie. Add in the nostalgia factor, and Batman v Superman has found its Kryptonite.

 

[Micromind]

I'm thinking 850 mil. is the ceiling.

 

[jaymes_e06]

In other words, just the...bare necessities?

Yet I can't forget about my worries and my strife for this film.

 

[FunkMiller]

So, who thinks the solo Batman movie announcement would still have happened yesterday, if this flick had made over a billion, and been Fresh on RT?

 

[mightiest_mortal]

So, who thinks the solo Batman movie announcement would still have happened yesterday, if this flick had made over a billion, and been Fresh on RT?

I think that announcing it now was a good idea, and that they should move forward WW.

If they can push back JL so it's behind WW and Batman then they could both help bring up hype for that film.

Not really new. Seems like best case scenario is in the high 800s. Feels like 860-something to me. Deadline thinks it will "only" drop 50-55% next weekend, which seems optimistic to me.

From what I've seen of its drop offs so far I think it's a case of thinking of the worst possible that you think it could perform, and then it will come in just below that.

 

[Black Adam]

So, who thinks the solo Batman movie announcement would still have happened yesterday, if this flick had made over a billion, and been Fresh on RT?

They still would of announced it, I think, since Batfleck would of been well received regardless. WB want their Batfleck movie.

 

[Webhead38]

So, who thinks the solo Batman movie announcement would still have happened yesterday, if this flick had made over a billion, and been Fresh on RT?

I think that would have happened regardless, because Affleck's part seems to have garnered the best reaction from critics and fans, so that's a no-brainer. Now this rumor they might release the R-rated version of BVS to theaters is hopefully just that - a rumor. The film is already too long and considered to be the wrong tone. I don't see the public engaging in a R-rated version anytime soon. It would also be a PR nightmare because it would be the studio conceding what they released was a mistake. That version should be restricted for the fans on DVD. I see no widespread demand for a theatrical release. I think Affleck will do very well as Batman in a stand alone. Get Snyder away and there's real potential.

In terms of BVS box office this week, I don't see it adding much to the tally before it has a sizable drop this coming weekend. Jungle Book seems to be all the talk. Even I'm pumped to see it.

 

[lukebrodyg]

Let me just say that in spite of the (likely) disappointing box office results, I'm glad WB is moving forward per the Cinemacon reel and message from Snyder and cast from the JL set.

While there's some things I hope change for JL and beyond, I'm glad the BVS story is continuing as someone who enjoyed the film.

 

[JOE]

So Spider-Man 2002 numbers without inflation roughly?

 

[Gerontophobe]

So Spider-Man 2002 numbers without inflation roughly?

Spider-Man 3 is the better comp due to the DOM/INT split, budget, legs, and worldwide final.

SM1: $115M OW, $404M DOM, $418M INT, $823M WW, $139M Budget
SM3: $151M OW, $337M DOM, $554M INT, $891M WW, $258M Budget
BvS: $166M OW, $340M DOM, $520M INT, $860M WW, $250M Budget

Note that all BvS numbers are middling projections and it may end up somewhat higher or lower.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So how many theaters do we think BvS will lose this weekend (or are there already figures)? This past weekend it was in 4,201, down only 154. Per BOM, JB will be in 3700, Barbershop in 2600+, and Criminal in 2500+. Also you have holdovers The Boss (3400) and HH (3000) that won’t lose theaters since its their second weekend.

Normally around this point superhero flicks shed 600-800 theaters unless they have good legs (which obviously BvS doesn’t). On the other hand, BvS did pull $5696 per theater last weekend. So what do you think?

 

[Erzengel]

I'd say at least 500 if not more.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Well, there's this:

Little Mowgli also is grabbing Imax space away from the superheroes this weekend, with 376 screens planned for The Jungle Book in the U.S. and (so far) 456 overseas. The film will be playing on 281 of those screens in China. Last weekend, Jungle Book opened on 69 Imax screens overseas. The film will also be on 463 PFL screens in the states.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-jun...t-cut-criminal-box-office-preview-1201736035/

I think you can pretty much subtract all those premium-priced screens from BvS just to start. Anecdotally, my local Cinemark has chopped BvS down to just four shows a day this weekend, none in 3D. Given that The Boss is making more money on like 700 fewer screens, I'd guess that 700 is the floor. More than 1,000 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Hurm...]

Does anyone know how BvS's box office compares to TASM2? I feel like the two films - in terms of what they were intended to achieve for their respective companies - are very similar products.

 

[Erzengel]

TASM2: $91M OW, $202M DOM, $506M INT, $708M WW, $230M Budget
BvS: $166M OW, $340M DOM (EST), $520M (EST) INT, $860M WW (EST), $250M Budget

Not really comparable.