BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[Webhead38]

Batman & Robin now making more per screen average for the same time frame than BVS. And that's with half the price of tickets on 1600 fewer screens in 1997 (with competition in the summer).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

BvS losing 597 theaters this weekend, which is a smaller drop than I'd guessed.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2016&wk=16&p=.htm

 

[InCali]

BvS losing 597 theaters this weekend, which is a smaller drop than I'd guessed.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2016&wk=16&p=.htm

If they drop into the sub-10M neighborhood (which I think is entirely likely), I think it'll start an avalanche. I'm kinda bummed that the new Huntsman movie is getting such bad reviews. It didn't have to be that way. What a great cast.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If they drop into the sub-10M neighborhood (which I think is entirely likely), I think it'll start an avalanche. I'm kinda bummed that the new Huntsman movie is getting such bad reviews. It didn't have to be that way. What a great cast.

I saw the trailer in front of MBFGW2 (not my idea) a few weeks ago and oh my gawd, did it look dumb. It was like Thor + Frozen + hobbits = WTF? I'm hoping it falls into the so-bad-it's-good category...

 

[FunkMiller]

Canonical Correlation

I just looked this up on Wikipedia. Couldn't understand a bloody word of it, and I have a good basic grasp on quantum mechanics, and can bore people for hours at parties with the double slit experiment.

Bravo to you.

 

[Juan1193]

I predict 320-330 domestic. Overall it'll probably end up at 830 WW. I'm praying that Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman end up being good and make money!! I really want the DCEU to succeed

 

[InCali]

I just looked this up on Wikipedia. Couldn't understand a bloody word of it, and I have a good basic grasp on quantum mechanics, and can bore people for hours at parties with the double slit experiment.

Bravo to you.

This is sort of how it works.

Since this is a prediction thread and statistical analysis deals with prediction, there's actually a closer tie between the two than you might initially think. For example, say you want to predict the DOM box office total of a movie (BvS for example). What would you do? You would probably look at a bunch of factors, try to make sense of them and then come up with a number. You could do that subjectively (though there's a subjective element to everything) or you could try to quantify some number of variables (using statistical analysis) and weight them in order to come up with a predicted number. That would be a univariate analysis (in this case multiple regression) as you are only trying to predict DOM BO.

Supposing, however, you wanted to predict the DOM BO, WW BO, chance of a re-release, etc. Then you would have to come up with a group of variables that predicted multiple outcomes. Multivariate statistical techniques do just that and canonical correlation is one of those techniques.

Wasn't that exciting? (Brings down the house.....)

 

[Logan0327]

took BVS 20 days to hit 800 worldwide

let this sink in it took furious 7 12 days to hit 800 globally

 

[Joeyjojo72]

If they drop into the sub-10M neighborhood (which I think is entirely likely), I think it'll start an avalanche. I'm kinda bummed that the new Huntsman movie is getting such bad reviews. It didn't have to be that way. What a great cast.

Gd shame that Emily blunt is wasting her talents on this crap when she could be playing one of several prominent roles in the mcu. Or even one particular DC character. She should fire her agent asap. (OK edge of tomorrow turned out OK I guess)

 

[Black Adam]

Batman & Robin now making more per screen average for the same time frame than BVS. And that's with half the price of tickets on 1600 fewer screens in 1997 (with competition in the summer).

 

[samsnee]

took BVS 20 days to hit 800 worldwide

let this sink in it took furious 7 12 days to hit 800 globally

look for Justice League to feature song by Wiz Khalifa.

 

[FunkMiller]

This is sort of how it works.

Since this is a prediction thread and statistical analysis deals with prediction, there's actually a closer tie between the two than you might initially think. For example, say you want to predict the DOM box office total of a movie (BvS for example). What would you do? You would probably look at a bunch of factors, try to make sense of them and then come up with a number. You could do that subjectively (though there's a subjective element to everything) or you could try to quantify some number of variables (using statistical analysis) and weight them in order to come up with a predicted number. That would be a univariate analysis (in this case multiple regression) as you are only trying to predict DOM BO.

Supposing, however, you wanted to predict the DOM BO, WW BO, chance of a re-release, etc. Then you would have to come up with a group of variables that predicted multiple outcomes. Multivariate statistical techniques do just that and canonical correlation is one of those techniques.

Wasn't that exciting? (Brings down the house.....)

Gotcha. Thanks for that. Actually makes more sense put in somewhat simpler terms that wiki puts it in quantum theory is largely based on variables and predictions itself, which is what makes it fascinating, and bloody frustrating, even at the layman's level of my understanding. That bloody cat is still in that box*, and waveforms keep insisting on collapsing, whether we want them to or otherwise.

*or not.

 

[InCali]

I predict 320-330 domestic. Overall it'll probably end up at 830 WW. I'm praying that Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman end up being good and make money!! I really want the DCEU to succeed

That's about where I see it DOM also although I think the WW numbers will be a little higher. Maybe 10 to 15M higher.

We shouldn't be wondering whether or not it will pass GotG.

 

[metaphysician]

Tragic really that it exhausted itself in 3-4 weeks. Oh well... the JL hype needs to do some amazing things.

Nah, its tragic that the movie is so terrible. It cratering is more like comedy, at this point.

Anyway, with the reviews Jungle Book is getting, I can't imagine it will draw much more BO. Not with the drop rates sans competition. I'm predicting single digit weekend gross this upcoming weekend, and probably not high single digit either.

 

[Poni_Boy]

$900 mil break even point. Production cost $300 mil. Just new info I heard

 

[Bruce Malone]

This was never about this one film being just profitable it was needed to be a big success as it was the true launch pad for so much of the DCEU.

If this film doesn't crack a billion (which it won't), i'll say that no future DCEU film among those already announced will.

The announced solo Batman is a hesitant maybe, too early to call for sure.

 

[The Joker]

It's got slim to no chance to make it close to 900 mil.

 

[Chesterfield]

Is that 900 million to break even confirmed??

 

[lukebrodyg]

Boy has this thread reached new depths.

 

[Tilapia]

We've heard a billion as a break even point, 900 would be a major boon. This is ASM2 all over again. You needed a billion without blinking. They utterly failed.

Justice League has to get there. I don't know how, but it has to get there. I would sign for 950 though... most importantly a good film. Tall order seems like.

 

[Hurm...]

Justice League can get there if the reviews are utterly glowing. However, we're already off to a bad start with this picture and Snyder still on board.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$900 mil break even point. Production cost $300 mil. Just new info I heard

Ow. But that jibes with deadline saying 925. Ow ow ow.

 

[Clark-Kent]

Is that 900 million to break even confirmed??

Deadline before with an expected take of 925 million said it will likely turn a minimum profit of $207.9M once all revenue streams are accounted. If ending at 850 million, it would be 132 million in profit according to that report. It would put the break even around 720 million.

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

Justice League can get there if the reviews are utterly glowing. However, we're already off to a bad start with this picture and Snyder still on board.

Snyder's movies have been making less profit with each release. I wouldn't be surprised if JL1 costs more than BVS yet still fails to crack a billion.

 

[Tilapia]

With marketing costs, there is no doubt in my mind the break even is north of 900 or at least very close to the 9. I'm not an industry insider, but these are the kinds of figures we see more of, crazy high numbers needed just to break even.

Imagine investing 400-500 million in securities in this market uptrend post 2009, as opposed to producing and marketing a film. With a ten percent return, that's 50 million in your pocket (pre-tax) at the end of the year. To think that WB wouldn't even get that kind of return on their flagship movie of the decade after Harry Potter? Inexcusable. Time and money... down the drain.

Sorry people. I had to put things into context. I'll get over it though.