BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline goes over the numbers...

ard that $800M internally is the happy number for Warner Bros executives. Yes, BvS will turn a profit after ancillaries are counted. However, theatrically, BvS is still in the red. Per our film finance sources, BvS has to hit $925M to profit theatrically after a $250M production cost and worldwide P&A of $165M. Currently, estimated rentals for BvS are $25M out of China, $166M U.S./Canada, and $200.2M from foreign. All together that equals $391.2M in rentals for BvS to its total global $415M spend, so $23.8M to go before theatrical break-even.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/batman-...tice-worldwide-box-office-records-1201738083/

 

[parkerpete]

Looking at these numbers, it's not surprising that JL hasn't started shooting as they said they would. There is no way they can keep Snyder after this debacle.

It really shouldn't have taken him torpedoing their world-building franchise for WB to wake up, but here we are.

 

[Tymminator]

I thought it's cool that we have a BvS positive thread, but after looking in there it comes of more as a delusional thread...they really don't get how bad this is.

I think I said 833M WW awhile back...I'll stick to that.

 

[Raiden]

Deadline before with an expected take of 925 million said it will likely turn a minimum profit of $207.9M once all revenue streams are accounted. If ending at 850 million, it would be 132 million in profit according to that report. It would put the break even around 720 million.

AOU grossed 1.4 billion WW and yet Disney came out and said they're disappointed. I can only imagine what WB truly feels behind closed doors.

 

[jaymes_e06]

AOU grossed 1.4 billion WW and yet Disney came out and said they're disappointed. I can only imagine what WB truly feels behind closed doors.

When?

 

[Zarex]

AOU grossed 1.4 billion WW and yet Disney came out and said they're disappointed. I can only imagine what WB truly feels behind closed doors.

That was a rumor spread by Bleeding Cool that was later discredited by Robert Iger. Deadline estimated Disney earned nearly $400M in profit on the film.

 

[Bruce Malone]

When?

The sources at Disney say these tensions have been building for some time, and when Avengers: Age of Ultron "underperformed," Feige was able to leverage this with the House of Mouse to move the film side away from Perlmutter and the Committee. They reportedly still have stronger ties to the TV side of things, so they aren’t completely out of the picture, but this is a titanic shift.

Why Disney Executives Apparently Think Avengers 2 Was A Failure

 

[Wylie Times]

When?

Just google "Disney", "Age of Ultron", and "disappointment".

Also just look at the box office returns of The Avengers and Age of Ultron. AOU ended up making less than Avengers. Studios are always going to be disappointed if a sequel makes less than the original because they always pour more money and resources into the sequel.

 

[jaymes_e06]

Just google "Disney", "Age of Ultron", and "disappointment".

Also just look at the box office returns of The Avengers and Age of Ultron. AOU ended up making less than Avengers. Studios are always going to be disappointed if a sequel makes less than the original because they always pour more money and resources into the sequel.

I know all of that and I wasn't asking you but thanks...

Why Disney Executives Apparently Think Avengers 2 Was A Failure

Yeah that's what I thought and thanks. My point in asking was it's not an outright statement which is different. It's no diffrent than articles posted on BvS about their disappointment in its bo returns.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Justice League can get there if the reviews are utterly glowing. However, we're already off to a bad start with this picture and Snyder still on board.

Blood is in the water now. No other studio is going to be scared of putting their movie near a DC film.

WB better hope Squad kills at the box office.

 

[Logan0327]

Blood is in the water now. No other studio is going to be scared of putting their movie near a DC film.

WB better hope Squad kills at the box office.

umm what?? BVS and MOS had over 100 million OW if your name isn't Marvel,Pixar Or Star Wars you aint putting a film next to justice league lol

 

[Mysteryman]

Blood is in the water now. No other studio is going to be scared of putting their movie near a DC film.

WB better hope Squad kills at the box office.

Blood may indeed be in the water but a couple of successes could change that.
If both SS and WW do well that could flip the dynamic once again.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's a bit sad that the Box Office pressure to potentially "save" the whole DCEU has now fallen on SS and WW two films that were not supposed to have that pressure on them and in fact were supposed to benefit from following BvS.

 

[Wylie Times]

I know all of that and I wasn't asking you but thanks...

If you only want a specific person to respond to one of your comments, you ask questions via PM instead of in a public forum.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

umm what?? BVS and MOS had over 100 million OW if your name isn't Marvel,Pixar Or Star Wars you aint putting a film next to justice league lol

Disney isn't scared and Universal had like a 2 billion dollar year with their franchises. They ain't scared of Justice League if it's Fast8 or something.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Deadline goes over the numbers...

ard that $800M internally is the happy number for Warner Bros executives. Yes, BvS will turn a profit after ancillaries are counted. However, theatrically, BvS is still in the red. Per our film finance sources, BvS has to hit $925M to profit theatrically after a $250M production cost and worldwide P&A of $165M. Currently, estimated rentals for BvS are $25M out of China, $166M U.S./Canada, and $200.2M from foreign. All together that equals $391.2M in rentals for BvS to its total global $415M spend, so $23.8M to go before theatrical break-even.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/batman-...tice-worldwide-box-office-records-1201738083/

Deadline is generally really positive about everything (it's kind of annoying, really, and their reviews are useless) so I found it rather amusing the shot they took at BvS in an article about BvS passing $800M WW:

Coming out of the Civil War screening at CinemaCon yesterday, it’s everything everyone wanted BvS to be: funny, smart, a mirror to society, new faces and sublime character trajectories.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Disney isn't scared and Universal had like a 2 billion dollar year with their franchises. They ain't scared of Justice League if it's Fast8 or something.

Not to mention is JL is tonally at all like BvS then it won't be a true four-quadrant film. The counter-programming, especially animated family fair, could be rather fierce. Just look at how BvS barely touched Zootopia's legs.

 

[Stark Bauer]

This is sort of how it works.

Since this is a prediction thread and statistical analysis deals with prediction, there's actually a closer tie between the two than you might initially think. For example, say you want to predict the DOM box office total of a movie (BvS for example). What would you do? You would probably look at a bunch of factors, try to make sense of them and then come up with a number. You could do that subjectively (though there's a subjective element to everything) or you could try to quantify some number of variables (using statistical analysis) and weight them in order to come up with a predicted number. That would be a univariate analysis (in this case multiple regression) as you are only trying to predict DOM BO.

Supposing, however, you wanted to predict the DOM BO, WW BO, chance of a re-release, etc. Then you would have to come up with a group of variables that predicted multiple outcomes. Multivariate statistical techniques do just that and canonical correlation is one of those techniques.

Wasn't that exciting? (Brings down the house.....)

That actually made sense. So basically, instead of focusing on the frog on the log, we are looking at the bigger picture, so not only the frog but all creatures in the pond.

 

[Stark Bauer]

$900 mil break even point. Production cost $300 mil. Just new info I heard

The bar is raised!!!!


RELEASE THE KRAKEN LOL

 

[Brother Jack]

A movie that has Batman fight Superman and Wonder Woman getting her debut not breaking a billion is clown town. These are the most famous superheroes in history. Overwhelming success should have been a given.

 

[Mysteryman]

I thought it's cool that we have a BvS positive thread, but after looking in there it comes of more as a delusional thread...they really don't get how bad this is.

I think I said 833M WW awhile back...I'll stick to that.

The positivity thread has nothing to do with box office.
Most of the people there want to talk about how much they love BVS.
That is not a place to talk about the gloom and doom of the financials.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Disney isn't scared and Universal had like a 2 billion dollar year with their franchises. They ain't scared of Justice League if it's Fast8 or something.

LOL. Marvel and other studios wouldn't be foolish enough to release day and date with JL or another DC film. The difference now is, now they have seen that DC movies' legs are not very good. So instead of giving JL a cushion of 4 weeks or more, they will not be afraid to move their releases even 2 weeks after JL because of BvS' steep drops.

For example, if Disney could have foreseen the BO performance of BvS, the jungle book would have opened a week or two earlier and would not have to fear losing any money to BvS.

 

[Tymminator]

The positivity thread has nothing to do with box office.
Most of the people there want to talk about how much they love BVS.
That is not a place to talk about the gloom and doom of the financials.

That's why if they talk about how much they love be it, that makes sense, it's why if they don't talk about box office, that also makes sense, it's why if they talk about how much it's huge box office success, I call that delusional.

How many screens is this holding in China still?

 

[jaymes_e06]

If you only want a specific person to respond to one of your comments, you ask questions via PM instead of in a public forum.

You don't make any sense... stop.

 

[Wylie Times]

You don't make any sense... stop.

If you have a problem with my posts put me on your ignore list. Otherwise stop complaining about people responding to your public posts on a public forum.