BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[jokesonm3]

Haven't we already established that the transformers franchise is a textbook example of critics not affecting box office barely?

 

[Urich Leeds]

Haven't we already established that the transformers franchise is a textbook example of critics not affecting box office barely?

WOM based on reviews (RT scores, and the like) usually affect CBMs more than they do other films. Especially stateside.

 

[rogbngp]

This film looks like its going to deliver in a lot of key ways for the general audience--and I think that bodes well for a decent RT score. BvS will be fun escapism. The action should be phenomenal. People should love seeing Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman brought together. The fight between Batman and Superman figures to be entertaining as hell, but the trinity battling Doomsday? Man, that should be epic. Remember how great the fight between Superman and Zod was? Here we'll be treated to the trinity slugging it out against one of the most devastating foes in comic book history.

This will also be a bit of a quirky and surprising film, I think. I think it is going to feel a lot like a comic book--but in a really good way. The question is will critics get that. Many may not. And because Snyder is a bold, risk-taking director, of course there will be things to nitpick about by film critics and nerds like us. But the GA isn't going to be affected by those things, really. At the bottom line, in terms of the characters, story, and action, the film will probably keep the general audience on the edge of its seat.

There is reason to be very optimistic that Tomatometer will be fresh. At least 60+%. If it fires on all cylinders I dunno, maybe even high 80s to low 90s.

 

[rogbngp]

Oh, also--I know this sounds possibly sexist, but if Wonder Woman steals the show (let's faced it, that 'trinity united' money shot was like wow), then I think women who aren't CBM fans going along to see it with bfs or husbands may be especially won over. Provided everything else is up to snuff, especially if Gal kills it in this movie critics will swoon.

 

[jokesonm3]

WOM based on reviews (RT scores, and the like) usually affect CBMs more than they do other films. Especially stateside.

I still believe that the audience scores have a bigger impact on WOM and box office legs, i think of it in this scenario:

Whether folks like or hate this film, the action in it is whats going to sell the film, you can tell by reaction videos that folks are really excited about both fights, Batman vs Superman and the trinity vs Doomsday.

Now add this to the fact that for a month of this films release as i've stated earlier in this thread has absolutely ZERO major competition affecting its rain, meaning folks have nothing to watch in cinemas apart from batman and superman fighting each other which is a key seller.

Legs wise this films gonna do what Jurassic World did this summer, good reviews or not the concept of the guy who directed one of the mops action packed films ever 300 is now directing a film where Batman and Superman two iconic as hell superheroes are gonna fight each other, this raises optimism, curiosity and most importantly hype, so in summary just like JW folks will watch this movie and give it strong legs because of two reasons:

1) Batman and Superman are gonna fight each other.

2) nothing else good to watch for a month apart from Batman v Superman.

And with these two reasons everyone will watch BvS again and again and again thus ensuring it big legs, lol if Man of Steel had a release date like BvS then it would've gotten like $700m-$750m instead of $668m in a competition heavy time.

Insane hype + festive release date + zero competition for a month = strng OW and Strong WOM & legs.

 

[jokesonm3]

This film looks like its going to deliver in a lot of key ways for the general audience--and I think that bodes well for a decent RT score. BvS will be fun escapism. The action should be phenomenal. People should love seeing Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman brought together. The fight between Batman and Superman figures to be entertaining as hell, but the trinity battling Doomsday? Man, that should be epic. Remember how great the fight between Superman and Zod was? Here we'll be treated to the trinity slugging it out against one of the most devastating foes in comic book history.

This will also be a bit of a quirky and surprising film, I think. I think it is going to feel a lot like a comic book--but in a really good way. The question is will critics get that. Many may not. And because Snyder is a bold, risk-taking director, of course there will be things to nitpick about by film critics and nerds like us. But the GA isn't going to be affected by those things, really. At the bottom line, in terms of the characters, story, and action, the film will probably keep the general audience on the edge of its seat.

There is reason to be very optimistic that Tomatometer will be fresh. At least 60+%. If it fires on all cylinders I dunno, maybe even high 80s to low 90s.

Oh, also--I know this sounds possibly sexist, but if Wonder Woman steals the show (let's faced it, that 'trinity united' money shot was like wow), then I think women who aren't CBM fans going along to see it with bfs or husbands may be especially won over. Provided everything else is up to snuff, especially if Gal kills it in this movie critics will swoon.

100% agree with this, the fights are what's gonna sell this film, and a lot of female film goers are eagerly anticipating a kick ass Wonder Woman!

 

[Wally_West]

Opening Weekend: 197 million
Overall Domestic: 450-500 million
International: 600-650 million
World wide: 1-1.5 billion.

 

[jokesonm3]

You know domestically i believe that this film will perform fantastically, what im worried about is the films international take.

I mean MoS for example, every major market it's opened in stayed at the number one spot at the box office in its first week while dropping to 2nd place or lower on its second week, all due to heavy competition.

BvS on the other hand has weeks of no major competition and opens in the late march easter weekend similar to Furious 7 this year, and that film has generated $1.1 billion dollars in just the foreign box office through its entire run, i hope BvS does a performance like that.

Quick question but does anyone know how big Batman and Superman are internationally?

 

[PacificBoy]

As I mentioned earlier, Batman and Superman in the same movie for the first time doesn't sell itself as much here in the far east, where they're well known but less culturally relevant icons. It's more 'pretty cool' rather than something seminal. Just like The Avengers before it.

It's still quite anticipated, in the way any tent-pole movie is, and should make plenty of bank. RT and other western critical reception seem to matter less here. What can dent the BO takings are other big local Japanese, Korean, Chinese movies opening around the same time. And in China's case, what movies they'd like to position ahead of foreign films for whatever political reasons. Piracy is also a bit of a factor.

 

[jokesonm3]

Is there a site the can tell us all the film release dates opening in China in 2016?

 

[PacificBoy]

I don't know of any personally, and I don't think there's a reliable one because China tends to release its dates for foreign movies quite late as compared to the rest of the world. Look at Star Wars' opening in China for example.

 

[jokesonm3]

I just hope that April is clear of any major competition in China for BvS.

Shockingly Man of Steel was knocked out of 2nd place by a Chinese film called Tiny Times which itself bombed at just $77 million but still hurt MoS in China.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2013&wk=26&p=new

 

[PacificBoy]

Does BvS have any scenes or moments pandering to the Chinese? It does help, both in securing a good date and BO returns. As shallow as it sounds.

 

[jokesonm3]

Does BvS have any scenes or moments pandering to the Chinese? It does help, both in securing a good date and BO returns. As shallow as it sounds.

Nah not shallow since that's what Transformers 4 did lol.

In terms of scenes in China im not so sure, but Furious 7 didn't have any scenes in China that I recall of.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

So who wins the 2016 box office... BvS or Civil War?

 

[PacificBoy]

Nah not shallow since that's what Transformers 4 did lol.

In terms of scenes in China im not so sure, but Furious 7 didn't have any scenes in China that I recall of.

I think Furious 7 had these things going for it in China: One, a favourable release date and lack of competition. Two, one of the biggest Chinese movie distributors invested in the movie and backed it in terms of nation-wide theatre release. Three, Chinese audiences (quite surprisingly IMO) dug the movie as a tribute to Paul Walker's passing, indicating how beloved the Fast characters have become over time.

 

[jokesonm3]

So who wins the 2016 box office... BvS or Civil War?

Not to start a Marvel vs DC war here but i based my answer in hype, release date and clear space from competition.

I say Batman v Superman will make more, why?

Well first there's the hype, there is no denying that over the past two years this film has been building up an insane amount of hype from its announcements to its recent trailer views, in fact everytime WB/DC announces something BvS related it trend a lot in social media, with tons of news articles produced over this announcement, plus when the latest trailer of BvS release the hashtag #BatmanvSuperman trended No 1 in the US, the UK and worldwide for 8 hours straight, i was timing it, plus stayed at No 1 on the front page of Reddit for 7 hours and was trending on facebook for a day and a half, so there is an insane amount of hype in this film.

Next is the release date, BvS opens up on the 25th March 2016 (as per my sig) which is also good friday of Easter 2016, now how profitable is the easter box offices? Furious 7 opened on Easter 2015 this year and there is no denying that it made an insane amount of Box Office revenue ($1.5 billion as of today) so easter is a good release for BvS

Finally BvS has 4 weeks of virtually no competition releasing whatsoever until Disney's the Jungle Book on April 15th, all small films releasing near it aren't looking for major box office wins so thats a month of no competition, all billion dollar films this year have made passed a billion in way less than a month (see my posts on the last page) so BvS should role past a billion in the weeks of no competition it has, Civil War has the Angry Birds film and neighbors opening two weeks after it, both two different target audience and X-men Apocalypse 3 weeks from Civil War so Civil War has some competition

And thats my final answer.

 

[jokesonm3]

I think Furious 7 had these things going for it in China: One, a favourable release date and lack of competition. Two, one of the biggest Chinese movie distributors invested in the movie and backed it in terms of nation-wide theatre release. Three, Chinese audiences (quite surprisingly IMO) dug the movie as a tribute to Paul Walker's passing, indicating how beloved the Fast characters have become over time.

Man it is insane how much the world loves Paul Walker for his final film to do Avengers level revenue.

Btw how is Warner Bros relationship with the chinese film market?

Because from what ive seen WB's highest grossing film this year San Andreas made over $100 million at the chinese box office a week and opened a week before that juggernaut of a film Jurassic World.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=CH&id=sanandreas.htm

 

[PacificBoy]

Man it is insane how much the world loves Paul Walker for his final film to do Avengers level revenue.

Btw how is Warner Bros relationship with the chinese film market?

Because from what ive seen WB's highest grossing film this year San Andreas made over $100 million at the chinese box office a week and opened a week before that juggernaut of a film Jurassic World.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=CH&id=sanandreas.htm

I think should be quite good? Have been quite a few ventures between them.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Not to start a Marvel vs DC war here but i based my answer in hype, release date and clear space from competition.

I say Batman v Superman will make more, why?

Well first there's the hype, there is no denying that over the past two years this film has been building up an insane amount of hype from its announcements to its recent trailer views, in fact everytime WB/DC announces something BvS related it trend a lot in social media, with tons of news articles produced over this announcement, plus when the latest trailer of BvS release the hashtag #BatmanvSuperman trended No 1 in the US, the UK and worldwide for 8 hours straight, i was timing it, plus stayed at No 1 on the front page of Reddit for 7 hours and was trending on facebook for a day and a half, so there is an insane amount of hype in this film.

Next is the release date, BvS opens up on the 25th March 2016 (as per my sig) which is also good friday of Easter 2016, now how profitable is the easter box offices? Furious 7 opened on Easter 2015 this year and there is no denying that it made an insane amount of Box Office revenue ($1.5 billion as of today) so easter is a good release for BvS

Finally BvS has 4 weeks of virtually no competition releasing whatsoever until Disney's the Jungle Book on April 15th, all small films releasing near it aren't looking for major box office wins so thats a month of no competition, all billion dollar films this year have made passed a billion in way less than a month (see my posts on the last page) so BvS should role past a billion in the weeks of no competition it has, Civil War has the Angry Birds film and neighbors opening two weeks after it, both two different target audience and X-men Apocalypse 3 weeks from Civil War so Civil War has some competition

And thats my final answer.

Great post. I do hope and believe BvS will easily cross 1 billion.

 

[jokesonm3]

Great post. I do hope and believe BvS will easily cross 1 billion.

It will thanks to the chinese box office, in fact it was thanks to them that all the 2015 films that past a billion dollars was thanks to the performance boost by China.

 

[Marvin]

Nah not shallow since that's what Transformers 4 did lol.

In terms of scenes in China im not so sure, but Furious 7 didn't have any scenes in China that I recall of.

Actually it was very much harped upon when tf did it. But it's seemingly become accepted for everyone since then. I still remember when terms like "if it wasn't for china" were used in a negative connotation, only now for this whole china thing to be embraced and even championed by fans and the like.

times change I guess.

 

[Val_Zod]

These are my predictions for the box office take between December 2015 and 2016.

1. Force Awakens - pretty much the most anticipated film in history since The Phantom Menace, the only difference being this film will satisfy both critics and fans around. It will wipe out anything in its path for the next month and a half. Probably going to be the 3rd film in history to reach the 2b club un-adjusted.

2. Batman v Superman - while Starwars is the most anticipated film of this period, if there was any film in the vicinity that could claim the 2nd spot, it's DOJ. Arguably the most discussed cbm in history prior to it's release, the film also has a prime release date, and will be the first tentpole following Force Awakens 3 months following.

3. Finding Dory - alot of people underestimate this film. Pixar has recently re-earned their luster as the best animation studios, with Inside Out, an original film that made over 700m. Finding Nemo was one of Pixar's most prolific films, and now it's getting a sequel. This film will play to family audiences, which will propel it to the over bill club.

4. Civil War - I honestly believe Marvel fatigue will set in with this flick. While it will make bank, the film just lacks that event flair of "everyone has to see this" like with AOU or BvS, not to mention it releases directly after a film with a similar premise. However, despite that, I expect this to probably be one of Marvel's best entries, and a fan favorite. The 1b club is safe to say, but I don't expect it to shoot way pass that.

5. Rogue One - following the biggest film of all time, Rogue One is going to see similar intakes as the Hobbit films. That said, I expect numbers a little over or under 1b. With a diverse and unique premise for a Starwars movie, I expect alot of rewatchability with this one.

 

[jokesonm3]

These are my predictions for the box office take between December 2015 and 2016.

1. Force Awakens - pretty much the most anticipated film in history since The Phantom Menace, the only difference being this film will satisfy both critics and fans around. It will wipe out anything in its path for the next month and a half. Probably going to be the 3rd film in history to reach the 2b club un-adjusted.

2. Batman v Superman - while Starwars is the most anticipated film of this period, if there was any film in the vicinity that could claim the 2nd spot, it's DOJ. Arguably the most discussed cbm in history prior to it's release, the film also has a prime release date, and will be the first tentpole following Force Awakens 3 months following.

3. Finding Dory - alot of people underestimate this film. Pixar has recently re-earned their luster as the best animation studios, with Inside Out, an original film that made over 700m. Finding Nemo was one of Pixar's most prolific films, and now it's getting a sequel. This film will play to family audiences, which will propel it to the over bill club.

4. Civil War - I honestly believe Marvel fatigue will set in with this flick. While it will make bank, the film just lacks that event flair of "everyone has to see this" like with AOU or BvS, not to mention it releases directly after a film with a similar premise. However, despite that, I expect this to probably be one of Marvel's best entries, and a fan favorite. The 1b club is safe to say, but I don't expect it to shoot way pass that.

5. Rogue One - following the biggest film of all time, Rogue One is going to see similar intakes as the Hobbit films. That said, I expect numbers a little over or under 1b. With a diverse and unique premise for a Starwars movie, I expect alot of rewatchability with this one.

Buuuuuut............. what will it make?

 

[jokesonm3]

Actually it was very much harped upon when tf did it. But it's seemingly become accepted for everyone since then. I still remember when terms like "if it wasn't for china" were used in a negative connotation, only now for this whole china thing to be embraced and even championed by fans and the like.

times change I guess.

Yeah i still believe that China's going to be the second biggest revenue for BvS box office, the question is how much?

I'm hoping for $250m - $300m+ since films like San Andreas and Terminator Genysis both made $100m+ in China alone.