BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[jokesonm3]

At the end of the day, people can look at any amount of pointers, hints, trends etc. for what B v S will make make.

At the end of the day....

Massive comic book fan base + Batman & Superman on screen together for first time + build up to Justice League and wider DCCU = guarranteed success.

Oh there's no denying that Batman v Superman is guaranteed to be big in the Box Office.

Question is how big?

 

[Mandon Knight]

$1B - $1.5B I reckon....

 

[elgaz]

I think BvS will do big numbers.

It has a number of advantages in its favour :

1) MOS has already preceded it so the audience has some expectation of the tone and style of this new DC universe being introduced in BvS. With MOS, there were a few people expecting a Donner-style Superman but that should no longer be an issue.

2) It has not just one global icon in the form of Superman as one of the lead characters, but also another in the form of Batman. Even fans with no interest in Superman may watch this film because of that.

3) It has a strong returning cast from MOS, and also a very credible new cast in the form of Ben Affleck, Jeremy Irons and so on.

4) It has a villain - Lex Luthor - who is arguably more known to the GA than Zod was. Luthor is the iconic Superman villain above all others.

I look at Nolan's Batman films as following a similar template. Batman Begins is a brilliant film and it had a moderately successful box office, but it didn't do amazing numbers - just under $380mil worlwide. There are many reasons for that; you can blame Batman & Robin for leaving a sour taste in the GA's mouth when it came to all things Batman, you can blame it on BB being quite a different take on Batman than the kid-friendly Schumacher films which came before, you can blame it on Nolan being a relatively unknown quantity at that time.

Irrespective of those reasons, the film set up a new structure for the Batman universe with a new tone, a new style and a more credible approach with the word 'realism' often thrown into the mix. So when The Dark Knight was released and did it's amazing $1 billion+ numbers, the GA had an idea what was coming (and more to the point, liked it) and I think that had a huge impact on the success of that film. I see MOS as paving the way for BvS in the same way.

Plus, it was just a brilliant film too which led to great word of mouth. Whether this happens with BvS remains to be seen yet.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I think BvS will do big numbers.

It has a number of advantages in its favour :

1) MOS has already preceded it so the audience has some expectation of the tone and style of this new DC universe being introduced in BvS. With MOS, there were a few people expecting a Donner-style Superman but that should no longer be an issue.

2) It has not just one global icon in the form of Superman as one of the lead characters, but also another in the form of Batman. Even fans with no interest in Superman may watch this film because of that.

3) It has a strong returning cast from MOS, and also a very credible new cast in the form of Ben Affleck, Jeremy Irons and so on.

4) It has a villain - Lex Luthor - who is arguably more known to the GA than Zod was. Luthor is the iconic Superman villain above all others.

I look at Nolan's Batman films as following a similar template. Batman Begins is a brilliant film and it had a moderately successful box office, but it didn't do amazing numbers - just under $380mil worlwide. There are many reasons for that; you can blame Batman & Robin for leaving a sour taste in the GA's mouth when it came to all things Batman, you can blame it on BB being quite a different take on Batman than the kid-friendly Schumacher films which came before, you can blame it on Nolan being a relatively unknown quantity at that time.

Irrespective of those reasons, the film set up a new structure for the Batman universe with a new tone, a new style and a more credible approach with the word 'realism' often thrown into the mix. So when The Dark Knight was released and did it's amazing $1 billion+ numbers, the GA had an idea what was coming (and more to the point, liked it) and I think that had a huge impact on the success of that film. I see MOS as paving the way for BvS in the same way.

Plus, it was just a brilliant film too which led to great word of mouth. Whether this happens with BvS remains to be seen yet.

Without straying too far off topic but related, Begins had very little 'push' behind it back in 2005, not many people, beyond core fans knew it was coming out so Box Office was really only ever going to be those REALLY interetsed in seeing a Batman film, like you say, the world was very different for TDK, the world and his wife went to see it, and I believe we will be talking HUGE numbers for DoJ, because Superman & Batman are simply so iconic, to GA as well as us fans, people will want to see it, plus WW in film form for the first time. So much for people to latch onto.

 

[Marvin]

I do think competition was a factor in the international markets but I do believe that the film's divisive nature is what truly sank the film internationally. I mean it opened on par with ASM yet it ended up doing almost 120 million dollar less, which is insane!
Guardians proved that if you have the triple threat of a brand name (Marvel was the attraction even if GOTG was an unknown), quality (beloved by audiences) and a great release date (August with almost no competition) then even C level comic characters can outdo A listers like superman and spiderman.

Spiderman's brand was(is) very strong internationally, very known very cinematic. Even leading into that that last one. Regardless of it making only 100 mill less than mos domestically when the branding is strong in certain foreign markets momentum takes over imo. It's like TF4 brand over seas, fast furious, and mcu.
Speaking of, what I've noticed is very keen of marvel is they are seemingly selling full on avengers installments when it comes to their stuff overseas. I mention ant man due to those particular posters. As much as guardians sold it self it had that brand element.

Superman as known as he may be has never actually landed intl' prior to mos. If anything whey they think of him cinematically what's there to be historically appealing Returns or those dated movies that probably have as much play as the original mad max's? I'd argue it was the intl fanboys that gave mos a strongish start but not much more ala Begins. What's more this idea that box office cites predicted big numbers intl I don't see how they could have. There are speculation predictions like those summer forecast lists, and then there are ones based on outliers and stuff once they have initial numbers. How on earth could they have gotten any of that sort of info for japan and (big market) China if the films release was months out in those places? They didn't consider all factors, The way they did for other launches like mcu phase one. Just odd to see their mistake used against the film.
Lastly on predictions, these outlets under predicted mos' competition. Which had they done accurately could have improved the accuracy of said early predictions.

 

[Mysteryman]

I agree with Marvin about the true importance of competition in a box office analysis.

I still believe that competition is a bigger threat to a film's box office legs then critical opinion.

Unless of course the film downright sucks.

In an alternate reality where Man of Steel opened on the 25th of March 2013 rather than June and just like Batman v Superman has no competition for weeks, then I honestly believe that it would've made $740M to $840M which would've been amazing.

So at the end of the day i believe that Competition was Man of Steel's biggest issue rather than its critical score.

MOS certainly had a lot of competition in week two which slowed it down, to a degree.
How much it was slowed down, I leave for others here to debate.

 

[metaphysician]

Ah, but you think marvel fans ain't going to see BvS? The geek nation ain't bigger than the GA.

*waves* Contrary to popular belief, not everybody is going to see BvS. Everybody who hated MoS, for starters. . . and don't pretend its some trivial amount. Movies don't have that harsh of a drop from their opening weekend without at least some goodly chunk of the audience disliking them, and spreading the word.

 

[metaphysician]

So just like MoS i believe that BvS will have strong legs domestically as well.

Um, what? MoS had anything but strong domestic legs. It made 40% of its total domestic haul on opening weekend. That's worse than every other recent DC comics movie, save Green Lantern, and worse than every Marvel movie except Thor 2, which equaled. That's not "strong legs", that's "average legs at best."

 

[jokesonm3]

Um, what? MoS had anything but strong domestic legs. It made 40% of its total domestic haul on opening weekend. That's worse than every other recent DC comics movie, save Green Lantern, and worse than every Marvel movie except Thor 2, which equaled. That's not "strong legs", that's "average legs at best."

Dropped thanks to its major competition from Monsters University and World War Z NOT because of sheer hate for the film.

 

[rockandrollsoul]

*waves* Contrary to popular belief, not everybody is going to see BvS. Everybody who hated MoS, for starters. . . and don't pretend its some trivial amount. Movies don't have that harsh of a drop from their opening weekend without at least some goodly chunk of the audience disliking them, and spreading the word.

I disagree.

Firstly, this is not a typical sequel in the traditional sense. I venture to guess that even those who "hated" MoS will most likely still see this movie out of curiosity alone. Let's not forget that BvS features a new version of Batman, WW's (and Aquaman's) first appearance on film, and is the jumping off point for the DCEU. Even the skeptical will see it, if only to confirm their beliefs.

Secondly, I think most people's "hatred" for MoS is a bit over stated. Hatred is a passionate response that implies something deeper than simply disliking a movie or finding it mediocre or disappointing. MoS is a flawed film, but it's not a disaster. I think most who "hated" it were more at odds with the interpretation of Superman vs their idea of how he should be portrayed.

 

[metaphysician]

No offense to anybody but I think this whole thing about superman being 'too american' is non sense since MOS was highly anticipated and opened big world wide; it had the 2nd biggest opening of all time for a non sequel, set the june record (until JW) and internationally it opened slightly higher than AMS, especially in the big markets. However the film was divisive and it dropped like a rock. It could've done 800 mill WW and infact after MOS's opening weekend Boxoffice mojo predicted over 320 mill US and nearly 500 internationally had the film held up well, which it didn't.

3 factors usually determine whether a film breaks out or not:

- Marketing/brand recognition
- Quality
- Competition

MOS had the marketing and brand recognition but the heavy competition and especially the (arguably) lack of quality did the film in. BvS has the marketing, the novelty factor and the great release date so even if it lacks in quality it will break a billion IMO and infact if IM3 got to 1.2 billion because of the avengers boost then you can bet that BvS will do that and then some.

Where would BvS get its "Avengers boost" from? Its not playing off of any well-liked, highly successful movies.

 

[jokesonm3]

Where would BvS get its "Avengers boost" from? Its not playing off of any well-liked, highly successful movies.

Brand recognition from iconic heroes like Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman in the same film for the first time.

Those characters are are insanely famous and well known from multiple generations as compared to the founding heroes of the Avengers.

That's the kind of "Avengers boost" that BvS will receive.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I disagree.

Firstly, this is not a typical sequel in the traditional sense. I venture to guess that even those who "hated" MoS will most likely still see this movie out of curiosity alone. Let's not forget that BvS features a new version of Batman, WW's (and Aquaman's) first appearance on film, and is the jumping off point for the DCEU. Even the skeptical will see it, if only to confirm their beliefs.

I'd be one of those people. I didn't hate MoS completely, just thought it was very mediocre overall. Saying that, it really has no impact on my desire to see this, just a different animal....I'm expecting a great film this time and much bigger box office, 1.5 -1.8 billion. I think WB will benefit from the move to March with much less competition.

 

[rogbngp]

*waves* Contrary to popular belief, not everybody is going to see BvS. Everybody who hated MoS, for starters. . . and don't pretend its some trivial amount. Movies don't have that harsh of a drop from their opening weekend without at least some goodly chunk of the audience disliking them, and spreading the word.

Yeah, there is some truth to this, I think.

But at least among my CBM friends over the last two and a half years they have gradually arrived at a better understanding of what MoS is about, and appreciate it for what it is--and they (grudgingly) kind of like it now. So I know that is anecdotal, but these were fans that initially bitterly hated the film. Now they're like, mmm, yeah, okay I see where the film is coming from now and I can go with it well enough. (They still hold the Donner/Reeve iteration as more dear to their heart, though.) And these very same fans are actually eager to see BvS. Even if they will end up hating it, they have to see Bats and Supes (and Wonder Woman!) on screen together in a live action film for the first time. It's CBM history. They may not see it more than once, and its probably repeat viewings that really get the truly gargantuan ticket sales. But they will see it at least once for sure. Again, this is CBM history, and they want to participate in the big cultural event.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Brand recognition from iconic heroes like Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman in the same film for the first time.

Those characters are are insanely famous and well known from multiple generations as compared to the founding heroes of the Avengers.

That's the kind of "Avengers boost" that BvS will receive.

Amusing that you get all defensive whenever someone questions the potential of this films box office or MoS's success, yet just last week you were downplaying Civil Wars potential (in the CW forum) and posting a Forbes article you basically whined about because it predicts CW will be bigger then Ultron (and the biggest hit of the CBM's). I didn't really notice people crawling up your butt because of your opinion. Take a cue bud, you've given your opinion and others have offered theirs, time to accept it and move on. The film will be HUUUUUUGE, happy? No need to keep banging the same drum ad nauseam.

 

[jokesonm3]

Amusing that you get all defensive whenever someone questions the potential of this films box office or MoS's success, yet just last week you were downplaying Civil Wars potential (in the CW forum) and posting a Forbes article you basically whined about because it predicts CW will be bigger then Ultron (and the biggest hit of the CBM's). I didn't really notice people crawling up your butt because of your opinion. Take a cue bud, you've given your opinion and others have offered theirs, time to accept it and move on. The film will be HUUUUUUGE, happy? No need to keep banging the same drum ad nauseam.

Ok look here, I wasn't angry about the fact that they said Civil War might beat BvS in the box office, hell for all i know it might, we don't know, i was mad at how much they completely downplay the entire 2016 Box Office, when we've just had a financially epic year of films and how some folks there was gobbling that crap up.

I mean according to the 'Geniuses' of CinemaBlend, a glorified fanboy clickbait website, one film, just ONE film will soar past the billion dollar mark while others will get close to it, at a time where last year we had five films , FIVE films cross the billion dollar mark with absolute ease, mainly thanks to the expansion of the chinese film market and the growing interest in the cinema per year, but nope, folks over that board were still eating it up because they said that Civil War will be the only big film of the year while the other highly anticipated films of the year barely lived up to their hype, instead realising how big the entire global box office market is growing rapidly with films like F7, JW, AOU, Minions & SW7 all not only go past a billion but destroying nearly every box office record set by previous year in cinema history.

And that's why i was angry about that sad excuse for journalism and box office measurement, got it 'bub'?

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Amusing that you get all defensive whenever someone questions the potential of this films box office or MoS's success, yet just last week you were downplaying Civil Wars potential (in the CW forum) and posting a Forbes article you basically whined about because it predicts CW will be bigger then Ultron (and the biggest hit of the CBM's). I didn't really notice people crawling up your butt because of your opinion. Take a cue bud, you've given your opinion and others have offered theirs, time to accept it and move on. The film will be HUUUUUUGE, happy? No need to keep banging the same drum ad nauseam.

Please. Dude he responded to was trying to troll Man of Steel.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

And that's why i was angry about that sad excuse for journalism and box office measurement, got it 'bub'?

Oh, I got it. 'bub'. Sad and hilarious.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Please. Dude he responded to was trying to troll Man of Steel.

I don't know this particular troll. My advice, don't feed them and don't get so wrapped up in box office receipts that you get angry at clickbait articles.

 

[jokesonm3]

Oh, I got it. 'bub'. Sad and hilarious.

Yep, sad and hilarious like those idiots with careers over at Cinema Blend.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Yep, sad and hilarious like those idiots with careers over at Cinema Blend.

Never read Cinema Blend so can't speak to that. Never read Forbes film predictions until you posted it. Haven't gone back 'cause it didn't impress me. Life's too short. Go figure.

 

[jokesonm3]

Never read Cinema Blend so can't speak to that. Never read Forbes film predictions until you posted it. Haven't gone back 'cause it didn't impress me. Life's too short. Go figure.

Btw you know it was CinemaBlend that originally posted that clickbait article right? Not Forbes i trust their predictions.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Predicting-Top-10-Highest-Grossing-Movies-2016-103227-p10.html

 

[Zarex]

I would be surprised if BvS hits a billion at the BO. That would represent a 50% improvement over the preceding DCEU film, which had at best a mixed reception. And while iconic characters are being added in Gadot's WW and Affleck's Bats, the former has never appeared on film and the latter is replacing Bale's recently retired and very well received version of the character. It's coming out at a time of minimal competition, but also a traditionally slow time at the cinema - the film could break all sorts of March records and still not crack 10 figures.

If the Trinity have the chemistry required to pull off another superhero mash-up, I can see this hitting $900M and setting up billion dollar grosses for the Justice League films. If BvS does that this film will be very successful despite disappointing some fans.

 

[Tensor]

Yeah no. BvS is gonna break a billion no question.

 

[jokesonm3]

I would be surprised if BvS hits a billion at the BO. That would represent a 50% improvement over the preceding DCEU film, which had at best a mixed reception. And while iconic characters are being added in Gadot's WW and Affleck's Bats, the former has never appeared on film and the latter is replacing Bale's recently retired and very well received version of the character. It's coming out at a time of minimal competition, but also a traditionally slow time at the cinema - the film could break all sorts of March records and still not crack 10 figures.

If the Trinity have the chemistry required to pull off another superhero mash-up, I can see this hitting $900M and setting up billion dollar grosses for the Justice League films. If BvS does that this film will be very successful despite disappointing some fans.

Furious 7 opened last year around the same time BvS will release this year, the last month of March on easter and all throughout April have been proven to be financially successful in the past from films like F7 to TWS.

And the only ones angry in this day an age of Affleck as Batman and Gal as Wonder Woman are fanboys, the general audience is hyped the hell up for their appearance.

So with an intense amount of hype, an easter opening weekend AND clear skies till the release of Civil War, it would be a big surprise if this film DIDN'T go past a billion at the BO.