BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[Marvin]

I think a billion is pretty much there for the taking. So long as the movie isn't garbage.

The last movie wasn't garbage(for general audiences), not sure why this one would have any chance of being as such.
I can only imagine

 

[fake]

My expectation is the March OW record and the TDKR OW number. Anything around that will be big, especially since March lends itself to good legs.

 

[TDKR1977]

The last movie wasn't garbage(for general audiences), not sure why this one would have any chance of being as such.
I can only imagine

Agreed. For the record, I loved MOS and think it gets bashed unfairly.

 

[jokesonm3]

Warner Brothers highest grossing film is currently Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two at $1.3 billion in its worldwide box office gross.

I want Batman v Superman to beat that.

 

[Marvin]

Agreed. For the record, I loved MOS and think it gets bashed unfairly.

Agreed.
yea, I didn't mean to imply you did.
I was making the point that 'garbage' is likely off the table, is response to your post.

 

[revenant78]

My friend (Marvel) and I (DC) were just talking about box office numbers for BvS and CA: CW. I'm going to give the edge to CA due to the inclusion of so many Avengers. I'm thinking that could do close to a 1B. I'm not quite sure about BvS though. I'm thinking 800m maybe. I don't know if WB would consider that a failure or not. I'd like to see it crack the billion mark.

 

[jokesonm3]

Under a billion is a massive failure for a film of this magnitude.

Especially given the extra circumstances this film has over Civil War.

 

[Rowsdower!]

I think it will hit a billion but the way people are talking on this board it makes me worry it will bomb. I keep seeing people comment about how "terrible" it looks ever since that last trailer. Is the GA sentiment like this, or is it just very vocal superhero trolls? I don't know. I've seen a few iffy things but nothing that makes me think it looks remotely bad. Yet the way people have been talking about it over the past month, you'd think it was FANTFOURSTIC or something.

 

[False Prophet]

Yeah, if BvS doesn't make a billion, it would be considered a box office disappointment, at least by fans. I can't imagine WB would be happy either. The last two Batman films alone got a billion each.

My dream is for this to make 1.5b and SS to make .8b, so that the first three movies of the DCEU will have combined for 3b, and I'll have the luxury of responding to any concerns with '3 movies, 3 billion, brah'.

 

[Tensor]

I think it will hit a billion but the way people are talking on this board it makes me worry it will bomb. I keep seeing people comment about how "terrible" it looks ever since that last trailer. Is the GA sentiment like this, or is it just very vocal superhero trolls?

Nope. GA loved the trailer #2, because that was their intended audience. They already hooked fans and followers with their CC trailer.

 

[jokesonm3]

Believe me mate there is a very big difference between the general audience and fanboys.

And it's the latter that's nitpicking the hell outta this film while the GA are definitely gonna watch this film as early as possible either out of sheer hype or curiosity.

Regardless there will be tons of butts on theatre seats come opening week.

 

[Rowsdower!]

I truly hope so. I NEED this movie to succeed, but critically and commercially. A box office of $1B+ and an RT score of 75% or more is all I care about. I'm sure there will still be trolls who denounce it without even giving it a fair shake, and fine, f**k 'em, they were going to hate it anyway. But I hope the vast majority likes it. There was talk in another thread of whether the film will be deemed a success if it gets a reception like Age of Ultron did last summer. That would be fine with me, even though that movie also got nitpicked (but to a lesser degree than MOS).

 

[jokesonm3]

For me as long as it's 70+ on RT.

If Jurassic World can get away with an RT score of 71% on Rotten Tomatoes and still make more than $1.6 Billion then that's fine enough for me.

 

[Zarex]

Under a billion is a massive failure for a film of this magnitude.

Let's say BvS comes in at a mere $935M. That would represent a 40% increase over the first BCEU film and set up billion dollar grosses for the JL films. How can that be considered a "massive failure"?

Especially given the extra circumstances this film has over Civil War.

What are these "extra circumstances"?

 

[Val_Zod]

Let's say BvS comes in at a mere $935M. That would represent a 40% increase over the first BCEU film and set up billion dollar grosses for the JL films. How can that be considered a "massive failure"?



What are these "extra circumstances"?

Depends. What would be the critical reaction? I imagine a critical response that is lukewarm, with those numbers would be a failure, as it fails to launch the DCEU. those numbers would also suggest it pulled in a much smaller audience than the TDK trilogy did, given they will have inflated ticket prices and 3d to bolster up the gross. Considering WB is marketing this very strongly, they want a strong opening weekend. On top of a barren release date, they're should be no reason for this film not to hit a billion, unless its a critical dud. Its a very different market than before. A billion is not as elusive as it once was, specifically for some films. Its also seems weird you would cite numbers that are just under a billion. I think WB would even consider just baseline billion a little disappointing.

 

[jokesonm3]

Let's say BvS comes in at a mere $935M. That would represent a 40% increase over the first BCEU film and set up billion dollar grosses for the JL films. How can that be considered a "massive failure"?



What are these "extra circumstances"?

Just $800M is what I consider to be a massive failure, $935M i still call a failure too given the sheer magnitude of this film and what it has to support it.

- Tens of millions of views on youtube and other sites.

- Tons of social media buzz throughout it's 3 years of development outmatching any other film of 2016.

- Opening on the Easter Weekend 2016 a time proven to be financially profitable thanks to Furious 7 opening big on Easter 2015.

- Literally weeks of no major competition till Civil War in May.

- One of the top 5 most anticipated films of 2016 in China the second biggest film market in the world. https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/687260908796686336

- Placed 3rd on Fandango's most anticipated films of 2016 behind Rogue One and Finding Dory. http://deadline.com/2016/01/rogue-o...ry-2016-fandango-most-anticipated-1201675461/

- And finally it's called BATMAN vs SUPERMAN, if the GA don't see this film early out of hype then they'll definitely see it out of curiosity.

With all these factors in play for this film then yes, it would be a huge disappointment if this film only makes $935M, especially since we have had a year with five billion dollar plus films from multiple RT scores from great to mixed.

 

[PacificBoy]

- One of the top 5 most anticipated films of 2016 in China the second biggest film market in the world. https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/687260908796686336

Just to qualify the anticipation a bit: Douban, the online site referred to in that tweet, is a pan-Chinese site, subscribed to by local and overseas Chinese as well as any non-native Mandarin speakers. It's foremost a cultural user-generated receptacle for criticism and discussion of books, music, movies, and tends to be favoured by denizens of Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen rather than those from tier two cities and below (where a chunk of moviegoers are from).

So, while it's an indication of Chinese interest, it's not quite representative of the moviegoing public in China. Saying all that, BvS should be a big draw over here with audiences ever-keen on Hollywood blockbusters.

 

[jokesonm3]

Just to qualify the anticipation a bit: Douban, the online site referred to in that tweet, is a pan-Chinese site, subscribed to by local and overseas Chinese as well as any non-native Mandarin speakers. It's foremost a cultural user-generated receptacle for criticism and discussion of books, music, movies, and tends to be favoured by denizens of Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen rather than those from tier two cities and below (where a big chunk of moviegoers come from).

So, while it's an indication of Chinese interest, it's not quite representative of the moviegoing public in China. Saying all that, BvS should be a big draw over here with audiences ever-keen on Hollywood blockbusters.

Ahh, apologies for that, thanks for the heads up.

 

[PacificBoy]

No reason to apologise, Jokes. I otherwise agree with your assessment of BvS' chances.

 

[jmc]

I truly hope so. I NEED this movie to succeed, but critically and commercially. A box office of $1B+ and an RT score of 75% or more is all I care about. I'm sure there will still be trolls who denounce it without even giving it a fair shake, and fine, f**k 'em, they were going to hate it anyway. But I hope the vast majority likes it. There was talk in another thread of whether the film will be deemed a success if it gets a reception like Age of Ultron did last summer. That would be fine with me, even though that movie also got nitpicked (but to a lesser degree than MOS).

It needs to be a critical success more than a financial success to me.

 

[jokesonm3]

It needs to be a critical success more than a financial success to me.

We talking 70+ critical success or 90+ critical success on RT?

 

[jmc]

High 80's - low 90's. This series got off to a rocky start and it needs this next one to correct the course. Basically this next film needs to be a lot better than the last which left people with mixed feelings. That can't be allowed to happen again.

 

[jokesonm3]

A tad high isn't it? i mean the High 80's - low 90's bracket is reserved for the best of the best of Superhero films with only a handful reaching that.

Plus it's a Snyder film, critics don't like him lol.

Honestly for me as long as it's certified fresh then it's A-ok with me.

Plus in this day an age Box Office equals sequels for Hollywood.

 

[jmc]

I think if the series is to be a long term investment it's important it show it can reach a certain level of quality. No, I don't think it's a tad high, I think it's exactly what they should be aiming for.

 

[jokesonm3]

Well yeah me too, i hope to high heavens it reaches a score like that, that would be amazing.

But for the average cbm film especially a Snyder film, that's like finding a feather in a hurricane lol.