BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[jokesonm3]

It will open to a pretty big Opening Weekend, around 170-185 range, that's clear. The main thing to watch is the drop going into next weekend, if it drops around 65%, then it will have an uphill climb to 1 billion.

65%?

Jesus it won't be Green Lantern bad.......

 

[Silver Surfer]

65%?

Jesus it won't be Green Lantern bad.......

It doesn't have to be that bad for a large drop to occur, some movies are simply front-loaded.

MOS had 64.8% drop

TDKR had a 61.4% drop

DOFP had a 64.2 % drop

 

[jokesonm3]

It doesn't have to be that bad for a large drop to occur, some movies are simply front-loaded.

MOS had 64.8% drop

TDKR had a 61.4% drop

DOFP had a 64.2 % drop

Man of Steel due to heavy competition from Monsters University and World War Z.

X Men - DOFP, due to competition from Godzilla and others.

TDKR due to the unfortunate Aurora shooting.

 

[Silver Surfer]

A movie with lasting box office power cuts thorough competition, a front loaded movie doesn't. If BvS is indeed in the front loaded category, competition or lack thereof will not help it.

 

[jokesonm3]

A movie with lasting box office power cuts thorough competition, a front loaded movie doesn't. If BvS is indeed in the front loaded category, competition or lack thereof will not help it.

Well for BvS competition or not everyones gonna watch it, the hypes ridiculous as per the trailer views from all trailers, and it's opening on easter, no ones at work or school, families want to go to the cinema with nothing on except for Batman v Superman and no competition for the weeks ahead, even if its not favoured by the critics its got plenty of action and humor to have legs for the coming weeks.

 

[Jonwo]

a good drop for BvS would be 50-55% depending on how high the OW is.

 

[jokesonm3]

I predict an OW of $185m - $210m.

 

[Black Narcissus]

100m dollars.

 

[jokesonm3]

 

[JOE]

100m dollars.

MOS even opened with 116M. Add Batman to the equation with Wonder Woman and Doomsday and you're predicting less? I think 140M is the minimum for OW.

 

[The Shape]

I predict an OW of $185m - $210m.

This sounds about right to me, but we'll see.

 

[jokesonm3]

This sounds about right to me, but we'll see.

Before the review embargo ends WB/DC will hype this film up with the super bowl and TV spots a month before release and during the pre ticket sales.

 

[kedrell]

I'm thinking more along the lines of $165m + or - $15m for the OW.

 

[jokesonm3]

If it does do lets say $190m then I expect a roughly 50% 2nd week drop off to a $95m-$100m.

Still basing this overall with

DOM: $400m

INT: $700m

WW: $1.1 billion

 

[Val_Zod]

It will open to a pretty big Opening Weekend, around 170-185 range, that's clear. The main thing to watch is the drop going into next weekend, if it drops around 65%, then it will have an uphill climb to 1 billion.

You have to consider the OS # that have become far more important in a landscape like this. Even if it were to drop 65% from your suggested opening, it could still breeze into 400m to high 300m domestically. The last Batman film did approximately 600m OS, and that was before the massive boom of the OS market. A billion will not be a problem for this. The real question is how much more will it make past a billion.

 

[jokesonm3]

You have to consider the OS # that have become far more important in a landscape like this. Even if it were to drop 65% from it's opening, it could still breeze into 400m to high 300m domestically. The last Batman film did approxiamtely 600m OS, and that was before the massive boom of the OS. A billion will not be a problem for this.

This.

 

[Wally_West]

If it does do lets say $190m then I expect a roughly 50% 2nd week drop off to a $95m-$100m.

Still basing this overall with

DOM: $400m

INT: $700m

WW: $1.1 billion

I don't see the Wonder Woman movie doing 1.1 billion but that would dope though.

 

[jokesonm3]

I don't see the Wonder Woman movie doing 1.1 billion but that would dope though.

 

[Snark88]

So with Civil War absolutely crushing BvS in terms of trailer views, is anyone else having second thoughts about which of these movies will make more box office money? I originally thought BvS would beat out Civil War, but I'm not so sure anymore. Civil War got 60+ million views in one day, while BvS got 9-10 in two days.

 

[jokesonm3]

Nope.

 

[Legendver2]

So with Civil War absolutely crushing BvS in terms of trailer views, is anyone else having second thoughts about which of these movies will make more box office money? I originally thought BvS would beat out Civil War, but I'm not so sure anymore. Civil War got 60+ million views in one day, while BvS got 9-10 in two days.

You're comparing CW first full debut trailer to BvS's second (or third if you count the extended teaser as a trailer) official trailer....apples and oranges man. A more accurate comparison would be with either the IMAX teaser, or SDCC trailer.

 

[jokesonm3]

You're comparing CW first full debut trailer to BvS's second (or third if you count the extended teaser as a trailer) official trailer....apples and oranges man. A more accurate comparison would be with either the IMAX teaser, or SDCC trailer.

This.

Pay attention Snark.

 

[joeshmow014]

So with Civil War absolutely crushing BvS in terms of trailer views, is anyone else having second thoughts about which of these movies will make more box office money? I originally thought BvS would beat out Civil War, but I'm not so sure anymore. Civil War got 60+ million views in one day, while BvS got 9-10 in two days.

Actually this last trailer of BvS got some 23 million views from youtube and facebook together in one day...Marvel is counting other sources (which they don't reveal) other than just facebook and youtube to get to that 60 million view number...so they're basically pulling numbers out their ass.

 

[The Shape]

Actually this last trailer of BvS got some 23 million views from youtube and facebook together in one day...Marvel is counting other sources (which they don't reveal) other than just facebook and youtube to get to that 60 million view number...so they're basically pulling numbers out their ass.

As indicated in my post in the trailer thread, both Marvel and DC should be and will be counting other sources to come to their one-week tallies. It make sense and is fair.

 

[GreenKToo]

IF its good, a billion + is very possible. Its gotta be good first tho.