BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[Black Narcissus]

It is must see for their fans. BvS is must see for the fans of DC and the characters. It is the same for Marvel and Daredevil. You bring up Hunger Games and F7, but they have different audiences, especially the former.

Ah, but you think marvel fans ain't going to see BvS? The geek nation ain't bigger than the GA.

 

[fake]

It is must see for their fans. BvS is must see for the fans of DC and the characters. It is the same for Marvel and Daredevil. You bring up Hunger Games and F7, but they have different audiences, especially the former.

So basically you are saying that if we neglect the movies which did well in March, no movies did well in March?

Before Furious 7 opened to 145M last year, no movie had opened to 100M in April, before Star Wars 7 the December record was 84M OW. Before "The Dark Knight" July had only seen one 100M opener. Before American Sniper opened to 100M 4 day, the January record was 44M. The basic point is that if you create a movie people want to see, people will see it anytime. Hollywood has realized this and is moving to year-round blockbusters.

What could have definitely affected BvS was if Uncharted 4 had released on March 25th as planned, anyone dropping 70$ on a game will most likely not watch a movie that weekend. But that would have basically just been maybe a 1-2M hit.

 

[Black Narcissus]

Nostalgia is a hell of a thing.

My granny is excited about this movie. The same demographic that gave Spielberg's recent snooze fest 30m+, is going to see this flick.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So what exactly are you saying tho? DD won't take away BvS #1 BO spot that weekend regardless

I never said it would take away the #1 spot. I am talking about how big it opens. Outside of GotG, superhero flicks haven't had the best legs since the Avengers. MoS faced stiff competition, but the legs were bad after a nice start. These films are frontloaded, have been for a while. Even TDKR was.

We can bring up how Furious 7 opened, and it did great. But it also had awful legs in the states. We have no idea how BvS will do overseas. DC hasn't really had a bust out hit overseas yet. Domestic totals matter. If BvS does as well as Furious 7 domestically, that is a problem if it doesn't do at least 800m overseas. Which it could totally do if it takes off in China or Europe in general.

MoS was the test. BvS can't be another one. It has to deliver. It is why I also think the reviews will be major. If Daredevil S2 comes out the same day, we are suddenly presented with how people spend their free time that weekend. We can say everyone will do both, but that just isn't true.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Even if this is confirmed (which it hasn't been) how would this affect the box office? I loved Daredevil season 1 and I will watch season 2 whenever I want. Why would this prevent anyone from seeing Batman V Superman?

The whole point of Netflix streaming is the benefit of watching at your own leisure. So some people will check out an episode or 2, see BvS than get back to DD when they feel like it.

There is no either/or.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

the only people who are actually staying home to watch daredevil first are the people who post/brag about it all over the internet

and even most of those people are filthy liars

Everyone (including Samuel L. Jackson's delightful grandmother) will be seeing this movie opening weekend. Believe it.

Nothing personal against DD because I love the character and I'm super stoked for Frank this season, but its not gonna affect Batman and Superman on the same screen for the first time ever. come on now.

 

[fake]

I never said it would take away the #1 spot. I am talking about how big it opens. Outside of GotG, superhero flicks haven't had the best legs since the Avengers. MoS faced stiff competition, but the legs were bad after a nice start. These films are frontloaded, have been for a while. Even TDKR was.

We can bring up how Furious 7 opened, and it did great. But it also had awful legs in the states. We have no idea how BvS will do overseas. DC hasn't really had a bust out hit overseas yet. Domestic totals matter. If BvS does as well as Furious 7 domestically, that is a problem if it doesn't do at least 800m overseas. Which it could totally do if it takes off in China or Europe in general.

MoS was the test. BvS can't be another one. It has to deliver. It is why I also think the reviews will be major. If Daredevil S2 comes out the same day, we are suddenly presented with how people spend their free time that weekend. We can say everyone will do both, but that just isn't true.

Furious 7 had the best legs among any Fast and Furious movie. The F&F movies are notoriously frontloaded, but Furious 7 still pulled out a 2.4X as opposed to the 2.2X multipliers of most of the franchise's movies.

Easter plus the Spring Break week helped it get the legs it needed. It would have got no better legs at any other place in the release calendar.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ah, but you think marvel fans ain't going to see BvS? The geek nation ain't bigger than the GA.

Not I am talking general apathy after MoS. Why do we assume that the General Audiences are into this? They very well could be, but MoS didn't really show that. It is why I feel like reviews will be really important. If the movie opens up to 200m, everything is beautiful. But I don't see a reason to think that is a lock.

So basically you are saying that if we neglect the movies which did well in March, no movies did well in March?

Before Furious 7 opened to 145M last year, no movie had opened to 100M in April, before Star Wars 7 the December record was 84M OW. Before "The Dark Knight" July had only seen one 100M opener. Before American Sniper opened to 100M 4 day, the January record was 44M. The basic point is that if you create a movie people want to see, people will see it anytime. Hollywood has realized this and is moving to year-round blockbusters.

What could have definitely affected BvS was if Uncharted 4 had released on March 25th as planned, anyone dropping 70$ on a game will most likely not watch a movie that weekend. But that would have basically just been maybe a 1-2M hit.

I never said ignore them. But they are different. Hunger Games captured arguably the most powerful force in the film industry. Teen girls. F7 had a lot of factors going for it, including tragedy and it being a beloved franchise. You bring up these films that did crazy money, while kind of ignoring how and why they did it.

I am curious, how big do you think this will open.

 

[Jekecy]

If Daredevil S2 comes out the same day, we are suddenly presented with how people spend their free time that weekend. We can say everyone will do both, but that just isn't true.

Being a different medium with vastly different consumption methods, I just don't think it'll play a big factor either which way. BvS has other things to climb over, DD is the least of its potential hurdles.

It'll be interesting if BvS has a "subpar" opening weekend though, as inevitably people start micro-analyzing what went wrong. I think that'll be the first time a film's opening weekend would be partly blamed on Netflix.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Furious 7 had the best legs among any Fast and Furious movie. The F&F movies are notoriously frontloaded, but Furious 7 still pulled out a 2.4X as opposed to the 2.2X multipliers of most of the franchise's movies.

Easter plus the Spring Break week helped it get the legs it needed. It would have got no better legs at any other place in the release calendar.

How exactly does this help your argument? This is a bad thing. That is not a good multiplier and only did better because of a holiday.

Even if this is confirmed (which it hasn't been) how would this affect the box office? I loved Daredevil season 1 and I will watch season 2 whenever I want. Why would this prevent anyone from seeing Batman V Superman?

The whole point of Netflix streaming is the benefit of watching at your own leisure. So some people will check out an episode or 2, see BvS than get back to DD when they feel like it.

There is no either/or.

It is an issue of time and how one chooses to spend it.

 

[Black Narcissus]

the only people who are actually staying home to watch daredevil first are the people who post/brag about it all over the internet

and even most of those people are filthy liars

Everyone (including Samuel L. Jackson's delightful grandmother) will be seeing this movie opening weekend. Believe it.

Nothing personal against DD because I love the character and I'm super stoked for Frank this season, but its not gonna affect Batman and Superman on the same screen for the first time ever. come on now.

I love her, but she once came at me with her shoe. My fast reflex caught her in a headlock tho.

 

[jokesonm3]

Well I don't know about you guys but Man of Steel had some great legs domestically, i mean even after both Monsters University and World War Z opened up in Man of Steels 2nd week ad dropped it to 3rd place on its 2nd week, and add the fact that it had mixed reviews from RT, this film still made more domestically than every superhero film from MoS to DOFP, and most of those films barely had any competition in the first place and most have better RT scores than MoS.

MoS: $291M

TW: $132M

THOR 2: $206M

TWS: $259M

ASM2: $202M

DOFP: $233M

All domestic.

So just like MoS i believe that BvS will have strong legs domestically as well.

 

[Bruce Malone]

As someone mentioned it's actually a small percentage of Netflix users who actually binge on whole 13 episode series in one weekend.

Most of the people I know who watch Netflix programs usually do 1 or 2 episodes at a time. It's mainly the online-bloggers who feel the need to watch all episodes at once, just so they can brag about the spoilers they know ahead of everyone.

 

[fake]

How exactly does this help your argument? This is a bad thing. That is not a good multiplier and only did better because of a holiday.

You said Furious 7 was frontloaded, I showed you it had the best legs of any of the F&F movies thanks to its release date. That should go the same way for BvS, extra legs helped by the holiday and spring break.

Since when is getting the best multiplier of your entire franchise a bad thing?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Being a different medium with vastly different consumption methods, I just don't think it'll play a big factor either which way. BvS has other things to climb over, DD is the least of its potential hurdles.

It'll be interesting if BvS has a "subpar" opening weekend though, as inevitably people start micro-analyzing what went wrong. I think that'll be the first time a film's opening weekend would be partly blamed on Netflix.

Not saying it is a huge hurdle, but if other things go against it, like reviews, don't give anyone an excuse to stay home.

On the otherhand, if it reviews well, it becomes the most see property. This film has the potential to be huge, but it also has a chance to come in below expectations.

Though again I would wonder why they would do this. If it really does mean nothing, why would they do it? Again I don't think it will happen, but if it does it is for a reason.

 

[jokesonm3]

Does know what the viewing stats for DD S1 were? like how many binged it quickly and how many took their time etc.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well I don't know about you guys but Man of Steel had some great legs domestically, i mean even after both Monsters University and World War Z opened up in Man of Steels 2nd week ad dropped it to 3rd place on its 2nd week, and add the fact that it had mixed reviews from RT, this film still made more domestically than every superhero film from MoS to DOFP, and most of those films barely had any competition in the first place and most have better RT scores than MoS.

MoS: $291M

TW: $132M

THOR 2: $206M

TWS: $259M

ASM2: $202M

DOFP: $233M

All domestic.

So just like MoS i believe that BvS will have strong legs domestically as well.

MoS had awful legs. I love it, but it's legs were destroyed by the other releases and a split general public.

As someone mentioned it's actually a small percentage of Netflix users who actually binge on whole 13 episode series in one weekend.

Most of the people I know who watch Netflix programs usually do 1 or 2 episodes at a time. It's mainly the online-bloggers who feel the need to watch all episodes at once, just so they can brag about the spoilers they know ahead of everyone.

It is how I do it as well. Mainly do to work. That is how I spend my free time.

 

[fake]

Not I am talking general apathy after MoS. Why do we assume that the General Audiences are into this? They very well could be, but MoS didn't really show that. It is why I feel like reviews will be really important. If the movie opens up to 200m, everything is beautiful. But I don't see a reason to think that is a lock.


I never said ignore them. But they are different. Hunger Games captured arguably the most powerful force in the film industry. Teen girls. F7 had a lot of factors going for it, including tragedy and it being a beloved franchise. You bring up these films that did crazy money, while kind of ignoring how and why they did it.

I am curious, how big do you think this will open.

I am expecting the March OW record, and maybe more than TDKR. If you want to get really specific about movie opening big in March, before THG the previous record holder was Alice in Wonderland which did 116M (132M adjusted). That movie had nothing going for it apart from "Here is Johnny Depp in a weird costume again" and still managed to be huge and gross over 1B WW despite March.

Last year, in back to back weeks March saw Cinderella, Insurgent, Home all open to 50-70M and Get Hard do 35M and Furious 7 was still able to get to 145M despite the large number of movies holding well. This year, Zootopia and London has Fallen are pretty much the only 2 movies which i think will open well enough, Allegiant is primed for a major fall from Insurgent leaving a 3 week box office vacuum prior to BvS.

 

[jokesonm3]

MoS had awful legs. I love it, but it's legs were destroyed by the other releases and a split general public.

As a superman film, living off the legacy of Superman Returns from the eyes of the general audience, it still made more domestically then a lot of other well critically received and less competed superhero films.

So how does it have awful legs?

 

[Jekecy]

Though again I would wonder why they would do this. If it really does mean nothing, why would they do it? Again I don't think it will happen, but if it does it is for a reason.

To capitalize on a time where people are potentially primed for a "superhero weekend". Whether one or both are good, people are going into that date expecting to go with at least one of them. It can only benefit them if the other one is good, getting individual(s) even more pumped up for more superhero treats. Best case scenario they'll complement each other. Worst case, I think people have already made their mind based on other factors.

 

[fake]

Not saying it is a huge hurdle, but if other things go against it, like reviews, doThough again I would wonder why they would do this. If it really does mean nothing, why would they do it? Again I don't think it will happen, but if it does it is for a reason.

Free publicity. A lot of outlets will report on it and increase awareness for both properties and the release date. It is as simple as that, someone who didn't know about Daredevil now knows it exists. Just the same way the discussion was brought into this thread upon a rumor.

Sisters took full advantage of that this year with the #YouCanSeeThemBoth hashtag when it released at the same time as Star Wars 7.

 

[Bruce Malone]

What's up with coming in here and downplaying the potential for success of this film DarthSkywalker? Apparently that's something considered quite rude to do in a box office forum right?

 

[jokesonm3]

MoS might have been divisive and mixed with the critics and fans, but the GA loved it, an A- on Cinemascore and $100M + on home release sales? Yeah folks really enjoyed MoS.

 

[sf2]

Well I don't know about you guys but Man of Steel had some great legs domestically, i mean even after both Monsters University and World War Z opened up in Man of Steels 2nd week ad dropped it to 3rd place on its 2nd week, and add the fact that it had mixed reviews from RT, this film still made more domestically than every superhero film from MoS to DOFP, and most of those films barely had any competition in the first place and most have better RT scores than MoS.

MoS: $291M

TW: $132M

THOR 2: $206M

TWS: $259M

ASM2: $202M

DOFP: $233M

All domestic.

So just like MoS i believe that BvS will have strong legs domestically as well.

MOS has strong legs domestically??? don't think so. It was front loaded heavily. Multiple factor less than 2.3. can hardly call as good legs.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You said Furious 7 was frontloaded, I showed you it had the best legs of any of the F&F movies thanks to its release date. That should go the same way for BvS, extra legs helped by the holiday and spring break.

Since when is getting the best multiplier of your entire franchise a bad thing?

Just looked up the numbers. The best legs in the series belong to Fast 5 and Furious 6. At least for the last 4 movies.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=fastandthefurious.htm

86m opening, 209m overall. 2.43x

97m opening, 238m overall. 2.45x

147m opening, 353m overall. 2.40x