BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[fake]

MOS has strong legs domestically??? don't think so. It was front loaded heavily. Multiple factor less than 2.3. can hardly call as good legs.

It had the same legs as IM3, Thor 2, AOU and more than TASM2. And Thor 2 even had the holidays to boost its legs. You can verify it if you don't believe me.

 

[jokesonm3]

MOS has strong legs domestically??? don't think so. It was front loaded heavily. Multiple factor less than 2.3. can hardly call as good legs.

Well then if that's the case then every film that i've just listed had worse legs than Man of Steel.

A Cap and Thor film post Avengers.

A really good X-men film etc.

All better received critically than MoS, and all have less competition than MoS.

And most of them were more hyped than MoS.

Yet at the end of the day Man of Steel still beat them domestically, so yes it did have good legs and a really good domestic total.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What's up with coming in here and downplaying the potential for success of this film DarthSkywalker? Apparently that's something considered quite rude to do in a box office forum right?

Why don't we ask SPIDEY if this is the same thing. And she is a Superman fan.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well then if that's the case then every film that i've just listed had worse legs than Man of Steel.

A Cap and Thor film post Avengers.

A really good X-men film etc.

All better received critically than MoS, and all have less competition than MoS.

And most of them were more hyped than MoS.

Yet at the end of the day Man of Steel still beat them domestically, so yes it did have good legs and a really good domestic total.

Do you know what legs are? It is the percentage of money a film makes after its initial weekend. Batman Begins, TDK, Avengers and GotG had very good to great multipliers.

If a movie opens big enough, it is kind of irrelevant.

 

[jokesonm3]

Do you know what legs are? It is the percentage of money a film makes after its initial weekend. Batman Begins, TDK, Avengers and GotG had very good to great multipliers.

Ok then if MoS did have bad legs, how did it make more domestically than all those films with worse reviews, tons of competition and less hyped than it's CBM competitors? Because let's be real, Superman films weren't that popular post SR, especially compared to two MCU superhero films post Avengers, yet still beat em, how exactly did that happen?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ok then if MoS did have bad legs, how did it make more domestically than all those films with worse reviews, tons of competition and less hyped than it's CBM competitors? Because let's be real, Superman films weren't that popular post SR, especially compared to two MCU superhero films post Avengers, yet still beat em, how exactly did that happen?

Because it opened bigger. MoS had a strong opening, but it did not hold very well. IM3 made more money then IM, but IM had far superior legs. Begins had much better legs then TDKR, even while making less money.

If MoS had Batman Begins legs, it would have made around 500m domestically.

 

[jokesonm3]

Because it opened bigger. MoS had a strong opening, but it did not hold very well. IM3 made more money then IM, but IM had far superior legs. Begins had much better legs then TDKR, even while making less money.

If MoS had Batman Begins legs, it would have made around 500m domestically.

Ok then, what do you think caused MoS to have bad legs then, was it its competition or was it it's reviews, because i doubt that it's the latter, MoS may have been mixed with critics and fans, but the audience loved it, it received an A- on Cinemascore and later on made $100M + on home release sales, so there was definitely some love for it by the GA, so what caused it's not-so-good legs?

 

[sf2]

Ok then, what do you think caused MoS to have bad legs then, was it its competition or was it it's reviews, because i doubt that it's the latter, MoS may have been mixed with critics and fans, but the audience loved it, it received an A- on Cinemascore and later on made $100M + on home release sales, so there was definitely some love for it by the GA, so what caused it's not-so-good legs?

how about GA chose to watch other new movies?
the WOM is mixed and no good enough to convince the GA.

 

[jokesonm3]

Well regardless of what type of legs its predecessor had, as long as BvS goes past a billion at the box office (which it will) then it's all good, which it will since it has tons of factors supporting that it will.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Ok then, what do you think caused MoS to have bad legs then, was it its competition or was it it's reviews, because i doubt that it's the latter, MoS may have been mixed with critics and fans, but the audience loved it, it received an A- on Cinemascore and later on made $100M + on home release sales, so there was definitely some love for it by the GA, so what caused it's not-so-good legs?

A combination of crazy competition and it being very divisive. I love MoS. Saw it 4 times in theaters. But it was incredibly divisive.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

fake didn't seem to like me actually looking up The Fast Series numbers.

Well regardless of what type of legs its predecessor had, as long as BvS goes past a billion at the box office (which it will) then it's all good, which it will since it has tons of factors supporting that it will.

I think if things go well it could be huge. DC just needs to finally catch fire overseas. I think the basic premise will result in an initial surge for the film domestically. If it is received well, there is no reason it can't go past 500m. People want good Superman and Batman. They crave it. You just need to give it to them.

 

[jokesonm3]

A combination of crazy competition and it being very divisive. I love MoS. Saw it 4 times in theaters. But it was incredibly divisive.

Divisive to the critics yes, but to the audience i don't think so, i mean both the Cinemascore of the film being an A- and its audience score on RT being in the 70's percentile is a good indication that it was considered to be good to the GA rather than being mixed or divisive.

Plus if MoS out today i can guarantee that it would've made more than $700M worldwide.

 

[Val_Zod]

It is must see for their fans. BvS is must see for the fans of DC and the characters. It is the same for Marvel and Daredevil. You bring up Hunger Games and F7, but they have different audiences, especially the former.

The audience for these big films is not limited to just fans of the source. These studios pump money into them for a large demo of people to watch them. I don't think there will be a large enough contingent of people who are fans of the Daredevil series that will not atleast go see BvS opening weekend. Anyway, I don't know why there's so much discussion on what is a baseless rumor from non credible site.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Divisive to the critics yes, but to the audience i don't think so, i mean both the Cinemascore of the film being an A- and its audience score on RT being in the 70's percentile is a good indication that it was considered to be good to the GA rather than being mixed or divisive.

Plus if MoS out today i can guarantee that it would've made more than $700M worldwide.

If it wasn't divisive it would have made more money, at least domestically. It's opening was very good, but not that good. A good example is Batman Begins. It opened low, but people kept seeing it for a good long time. TDK did the same thing, started from a higher place and thus set the world on fire. We can talk competition but all those crazy articles and discussions online about the death and destruction weren't isolated. I disagree with them completely, but they were totally a thing.

Can't figure out what is going to happen internationally with BvS. MoS was soft, but DC has never been that big overseas. Perhaps this new type of film will change that. Anything between 600m and 1.3bil would not surprise me. I do think the floor is 600m this time around.

 

[jokesonm3]

fake didn't seem to like me actually looking up The Fast Series numbers.


I think if things go well it could be huge. DC just needs to finally catch fire overseas. I think the basic premise will result in an initial surge for the film domestically.

What i've seen according to the international legs of Man of Steel in the world's top 10 international film markets (which are China, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Mexico, Spain, Italy and Australia)

Every market had MoS drop to either 2nd or 3rd place in the international film markets all because of those two films, Monsters University and World War Z and in some cases Despicable Me 2.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=superman2012.htm

Batman v Superman not only opens on easter which is celebrated a lot in the US and a lot of other major film markets, but it has near zero competition until CW or even JB but that is over a month away.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The audience for these big films is not limited to just fans of the source. These studios pump money into them for a large demo of people to watch them. The point fake is trying to make is March is a viable month. The fact 3 different kinds of films could pull over 100m in March, 2 of which made around the ballpark of 150m is proof enough.

Of course they are not. But there is different relevance among the general audience. Otherwise they'd all make the same money. I am talking about BvS as a draw itself. There is no problem with March, outside of soft weekdays after the initial opening.

 

[jokesonm3]

If it wasn't divisive it would have made more money, at least domestically. It's opening was very good, but not that good. A good example is Batman Begins. It opened low, but people kept seeing it for a good long time. TDK did the same thing, started from a higher place and thus set the world on fire. We can talk competition but all those crazy articles and discussions online about the death and destruction weren't isolated. I disagree with them completely, but they were totally a thing.

Can't figure out what is going to happen internationally with BvS. MoS was soft, but DC has never been that big overseas. Perhaps this new type of film will change that. Anything between 600m and 1.3bil would not surprise me. I do think the floor is 600m this time around.

It never made more money because competition was fierce, Monsters University took a good portion of the kids audience and to some extent the family audience while World War Z took a good portion of the teens and adult audience, competition was the key issue here not a divisive view, now if MoS was straight up panned by critics then i would've agreed plus mixed films don't necessarily do bad box offices, both the Hunger Games and the Hobbit films makes tons with some of their films being mixed.

Plus i have to say that if BvS does make less than $900M worldwide then the DCEU's as good as dead.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What i've seen according to the international legs of Man of Steel in the world's top 10 international film markets (which are China, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Mexico, Spain, Italy and Australia)

Every market had MoS drop to either 2nd or 3rd place in the international film markets all because of those two films, Monsters University and World War Z and in some cases Despicable Me 2.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=superman2012.htm

Batman v Superman not only opens on easter which is celebrated a lot in the US and a lot of other major film markets, but it has near zero competition until CW or even JB but that is over a month away.

Thirst for a film can overcome competition. Just look at what JW did and Inside Out was out the next week.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=28&p=.htm

We can talk about competition, but the film still needs to get people to go see it. Why I think reviews are important here. They usually go hand in hand with WOM.

 

[jokesonm3]

Well this films called Batman vs Superman, so if sheer anticipation doesn't win people over then sheer curiosity will.

 

[jokesonm3]

Thirst for a film can overcome competition. Just look at what JW did and Inside Out was out the next week.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=28&p=.htm

We can talk about competition, but the film still needs to get people to go see it. Why I think reviews are important here. They usually go hand in hand with WOM.

Reviews will only hurt Batman v Superman's chances of making a lot if its reviews are under 65% on rotten tomatoes, anything more is gravy to the meal.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It never made more money because competition was fierce, Monsters University took a good portion of the kids audience and to some extent the family audience while World War Z took a good portion of the teens and adult audience, competition was the key issue here not a divisive view, now if MoS was straight up panned by critics then i would've agreed plus mixed films don't necessarily do bad box offices, both the Hunger Games and the Hobbit films makes tons with some of their films being mixed.

Plus i have to say that if BvS does make less than $900M worldwide then the DCEU's as good as dead.

How much do you know about box office? Because you are saying a lot of strange things. The Hobbit series all under performed at the domestic box office easily outpaced by the LotR. The Hunger Games first two films were by far the best received by critics and did really, really good. The last two were not, and shed a lot of domestic box office.

Just look:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=hungergamesshowdown.htm

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/search/?search=hunger+games

 

[fake]

fake didn't seem to like me actually looking up The Fast Series numbers.


I think if things go well it could be huge. DC just needs to finally catch fire overseas. I think the basic premise will result in an initial surge for the film domestically. If it is received well, there is no reason it can't go past 500m. People want good Superman and Batman. They crave it. You just need to give it to them.

People have to eat sometimes and can't be online 24/7. The only thing those numbers show is F&F being crazy consistent, and with an opening weekend 50M more than the previous installments, it still managed the same legs which is amazing. The higher the opening goes, the weaker the legs get normally for established franchises since more of the audience shows up early.

If BvS opens to 160M, I fully expect over 400M for it. Getting back to the original point, DD S2 will have little to no impact on the OW for this, the movie will live or die at the box office by itself.

 

[jokesonm3]

How much do you know about box office? Because you are saying a lot of strange things. The Hobbit series all under performed at the domestic box office easily outpaced by the LotR. The Hunger Games first two films were by far the best received by critics and did really, really good. The last two were not, and shed a lot of domestic box office.

Just look:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=hungergamesshowdown.htm

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/search/?search=hunger+games

Well the Hobbit franchise was mostly mixed and still made either more than a billion or under a billion at the worldwide box office.

And by the hunger games i meant the last two.

 

[jokesonm3]

But forget talking about Man of Steel, here's why i think that Batman v Superman will do really great at the box office if it gets an RT score of 65+ for arguments sakes.

Anticipation: Ever since its announcement back in SDCC 2013 to its latest marketing materials from trailers to merchandise, BvS has been successful in that, in fact every time a new trailer releases it trends on various platforms of social media, like Facebook, reddit, twitter etc. in single vieos it's first teaser trailer that was initially leaked has mare than 50 million views on its main video and million of views in other videos, it's comic con trailer has over 60 million views in a single video with tens of million of views in other videos on youtube, this film has more trailer views then, minions, Jurassic World, Furious 7 etc. 3 films that made a ton this year, there is no denying that the hype is insane for this film.

Opening Week: Batman v Superman opens in 42 markets including the US on the 25th of March 2016, that's good friday of Easter 2016, and if the marketing push for Man of Steel, a superman film living of the box office legacy of Superman Returns can make more OW then a lot of other cbm films including some MCU films post Avengers then i'm sure that the BvS opening weekend will be high.

Competition: Man of Steel's biggest downfall box office wise was its competition, there's no denying that MU and WWZ hurt the film financially both domestically and internationally, BvS however has no major competition on easter and all through most of April until Civil War, or Until the Jungle Book, and that is 4 weeks ahead of BvS, that is a month of no competition and 4 weeks at No1 at the box office, and most films take about a month or less to make their overall totals:

How long it took to cross $1B at the WW BO:

AOU: 24 days to $1B

F7: 17 days to $1B

JW: 13 days to $1B

Release dates from BvS to late april:

March 25th:

- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

- The Disappointments Room

- I Saw the Light

- My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

April 1st:

- Collide

- God's Not Dead 2

- Keeping Up with the Joneses

- Rings

- Green Room

April 8th:

- Before I Wake

- The Boss

- Demolition

- Money Monster

April 15th:

- Barbershop: The Next Cut

- The Best Man Wedding

- Criminal

- Everybody Wants Some

- Amityville: The Awakening

-The Jungle Book

April 22nd:

- The Huntsman: Winter's War

- Keanu

These are all the films coming out in the first month of Batman v Superman's release, the two highlighted bold are the only ones i believe will threaten BvS Number 1 spot at the Global Box Office, that's a month of no competition.

So at the end of the day BvS has got:

- Insane hype

- opening on holiday weekend

- weeks of no competition

So with all these factors in place, how much do you predict BvS will make DS?

 

[jokesonm3]

Not to mention that China is gonna have a big impact of the BvS box office thanks to its yearly expansion.

I mean think about this, While MoS made $63M in China, Terminator Genysis and San Andreas, to obviously bad films of 2015, each made $100M in China, so we can see here, reviews don't mean anything for the chinese box office, for as long as there's action, it'll make a lot.

So if lets say MoS also released in 2015 and made $100M in China rather than $63M in 2013, it definitely would've past the $700M dollar mark.