BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[DarthAlani]

Going with a $195 million OW. I'm expecting a huge marketing push for this. WB is pretty much the best in the business at marketing.

 

[ArmsHeldOut]

I still can't believe they're making a Huntsman sequel. Why?

 

[jokesonm3]

I still can't believe they're making a Huntsman sequel. Why?

No idea, getting rid of that twilight chick was a plus though lol.

 

[PacificBoy]

Not to mention that China is gonna have a big impact of the BvS box office thanks to its yearly expansion.

I mean think about this, While MoS made $63M in China, Terminator Genysis and San Andreas, to obviously bad films of 2015, each made $100M in China, so we can see here, reviews don't mean anything for the chinese box office, for as long as there's action, it'll make a lot.

So if lets say MoS also released in 2015 and made $100M in China rather than $63M in 2013, it definitely would've past the $700M dollar mark.

I'm no box office expert but I think you can draw a rough parallel between how JW fared in 2015 and how BvS potentially might do in China based on how Jurassic Park 3D and MoS did in 2013.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/yearly/?yr=2013&p=.htm

Both are franchise, brand name driven rather than star driven. Both first installments are recent (in China at least) and thus fresh in the memory of a fast-expanding movie audience, and as importantly did well on their first pass. So for starters it's safe to predict a similar multiplier for a USD200-250m BO. More if the movie really clicks for the local audience.

The trinity doesn't sell itself as much here as it does in the west, nor does the versus angle. Batman himself is pretty popular. Had a few Bale-Batman memes doing the rounds in Chinese social media a few years back. Superheroes are generally in fashion though. Merchandise sells and you see superhero paraphernalia most everywhere in the big four cities. The GA, however, routinely mistakes Batman and Superman for Marvel heroes. . Which isn't a bad thing in this case to get more butts on seats.

Its success in China depends on its release date, the length of its run due to the blackout blockade, and the movies, both local and foreign, that are pitted against it. Going back to JW, it only had a clear 9 day run or so before, but made all that money anyway. Being well reviewed in the western press matters less here, as you've pointed out. Teminator G and San Andreas' success were helped by the star power of their leads. Arnie is still popular and The Rock is a newly minted superstar here thanks to the Furious series. Chinese audiences will flock to see their favorite stars on the big screen.

 

[Marvin]

Do you know what legs are? It is the percentage of money a film makes after its initial weekend. Batman Begins, TDK, Avengers and GotG had very good to great multipliers.

If a movie opens big enough, it is kind of irrelevant.
...
If MoS had Batman Begins legs, it would have made around 500m domestically.

I think people put to much stake in this kinda thinking to be honest. For example let's look at the new star wars, it's supposedly 'coming for james cameron' in all sorts of ways yet it probably has no chance of messing with his films 'legs'. However the day it overtakes his films will there be any talk of well it's all for not because had it had avatars legs it would have done so and so? Or things of that like?
I for one doubt it. The biggest 'thing' is how much the films make, followed closely by their profit. As far as these realms are concerned anyways.

In this realm it's simply a matter of how much it makes. If a movie makes 10billion with the worst legs ever..I digress.

Thirst for a film can overcome competition. Just look at what JW did and Inside Out was out the next week.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=28&p=.htm

We can talk about competition, but the film still needs to get people to go see it. Why I think reviews are important here. They usually go hand in hand with WOM.

It's very easy to say "usually".
I for one think competition is one of the most overlooked ever present factors and has always factored in(even with the cbms of 2014 most recently). Unless something is an event, my pals and I always weigh our options when going to watch something. Especially when the matter of watching it a second weekend arises, and this is key when discussing legs.

What you are arguing here on the matter of 'thirst overcoming competition' taken to it's logical conclusion suggests that if TFA and JW(AOU) were to literally switch places then things would play out no differently for any of them, when it comes to legs. It's just too convenient imo.

 

[jokesonm3]

I agree with Marvin about the true importance of competition in a box office analysis.

I still believe that competition is a bigger threat to a film's box office legs then critical opinion.

Unless of course the film downright sucks.

In an alternate reality where Man of Steel opened on the 25th of March 2013 rather than June and just like Batman v Superman has no competition for weeks, then I honestly believe that it would've made $740M to $840M which would've been amazing.

So at the end of the day i believe that Competition was Man of Steel's biggest issue rather than its critical score.

 

[Tensor]

True. That and overseas gross was low for some reason I can't figure out.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think people put to much stake in this kinda thinking to be honest. For example let's look at the new star wars, it's supposedly 'coming for james cameron' in all sorts of ways yet it probably has no chance of messing with his films 'legs'. However the day it overtakes his films will there be any talk of well it's all for not because had it had avatars legs it would have done so and so? Or things of that like?
I for one doubt it. The biggest 'thing' is how much the films make, followed closely by their profit. As far as these realms are concerned anyways.

In this realm it's simply a matter of how much it makes. If a movie makes 10billion with the worst legs ever..I digress.

I said sometimes legs are irrelevant depending on how they start. But what film is going to open to 10 billion? None of course. It is an extreme example. If BvS opens at 200m plus domestically, it should be fine. But if it opens at 200m and pulls under 500m somehow, that isn't a good sign moving forward.

The two biggest ideas is money for the film itself and gauging interest in the series and potential sequels. You throw good money after good. It is why TFA had to make 1.5bil to be considered a success. It is why TASM2 getting 700m was a failure. Why we are seeing BvS instead of MoS2. These films cost a lot of money. Over 400m easily when you are all said and done.

I am curious why you think TFA won't have Cameron's films legs when three weeks in, it is still outpacing Avatar and Titanic heavily, and already has a 3x multiplier with the biggest opening ever. But that is for the Star Wars thread.

It's very easy to say "usually".
I for one think competition is one of the most overlooked ever present factors and has always factored in(even with the cbms of 2014 most recently). Unless something is an event, my pals and I always weigh our options when going to watch something. Especially when the matter of watching it a second weekend arises, and this is key when discussing legs.

What you are arguing here on the matter of 'thirst overcoming competition' taken to it's logical conclusion suggests that if TFA and JW(AOU) were to literally switch places then things would play out no differently for any of them, when it comes to legs. It's just too convenient imo.

The thing is, other films ran from TFA. They did not want to compete, and that includes Rogue Nation, Kung Fu Panda and BvS. It is why its legs will not be touched. No other major film wanted to play that game. Will you take that into account when moving TFA and JW or AoU? That is a demonstration of draw power.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I agree with Marvin about the true importance of competition in a box office analysis.

I still believe that competition is a bigger threat to a film's box office legs then critical opinion.

Unless of course the film downright sucks.

In an alternate reality where Man of Steel opened on the 25th of March 2013 rather than June and just like Batman v Superman has no competition for weeks, then I honestly believe that it would've made $740M to $840M which would've been amazing.

So at the end of the day i believe that Competition was Man of Steel's biggest issue rather than its critical score.

The competition was a huge factor. But what other huge film has had competition that hurt it that much? Like any of the to 50 of all time.

Personally, I think they should have flipped Pacific Rim and MoS. WB wanted both franchises, and Pacific Rim didn't end up catching fire and they hurt MoS for it. How much? Not sure, but it wasn't 200m worth. There is a difference between saying the legs were hurt, and saying they were cut off.

 

[jokesonm3]

If BvS manages to make $200M OW then first of all i'd pop a fresh bottle of expensive champagne to celebrate.

And secondly i find it near impossible for it to make under $500M if it does that kind of OW, i mean it'll have to be Green Lantern bad, with a 70% drop off on second week to kinda do that.

 

[baerrtt]

No idea, getting rid of that twilight chick was a plus though lol.

As someone who doesn't care for Kristen Stewart that was a dumb move by Universal. The first film largely did as well as it did because of the top billed Stewart's Twilight fandom.

 

[jokesonm3]

As someone who doesn't care for Kristen Stewart that was a dumb move by Universal. The first film largely did as well as it did because of the top billed Stewart's Twilight fandom.

And the next film will do better since she's not in it.

 

[jokesonm3]

The competition was a huge factor. But what other huge film has had competition that hurt it that much? Like any of the to 50 of all time.

Personally, I think they should have flipped Pacific Rim and MoS. WB wanted both franchises, and Pacific Rim didn't end up catching fire and they hurt MoS for it. How much? Not sure, but it wasn't 200m worth. There is a difference between saying the legs were hurt, and saying they were cut off.

Well not $200M that'll be insane, but let's say a $50M increase both domestically and internationally over the course of 5 weeks would've been doable with no competition.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If BvS manages to make $200M OW then first of all i'd pop a fresh bottle of expensive champagne to celebrate.

And secondly i find it near impossible for it to make under $500M if it does that kind of OW, i mean it'll have to be Green Lantern bad, with a 70% drop off on second week to kinda do that.

Damn right they are getting drunk if that happens.

It would not be impossible. IM3 actually is a good example. But if it is opening that large, you would think it would be because the buzz is great and thus under 200m would be very unlikely. But if it did somehow happen, that wouldn't be great going forward. I'd be worried about Wonder Woman.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

And the next film will do better since she's not in it.

They lost a fantastic young actress. Yes, very good for that film.

Well not $200M that'll be insane, but let's say a $50M increase both domestically and internationally over the course of 5 weeks would've been doable with no competition.

I don't disagree with that. I still don't know why they released the film in that buzz saw, while basically giving Pacific Rim free air. All the reports before the release seemed to show a real confidence in MoS. WB seemed legitimately shocked by the reaction the film got.

 

[PacificBoy]

True. That and overseas gross was low for some reason I can't figure out.

OS gross was low in relation to? For a superhero not named Spiderman, Batman and Iron Man in recent times, and in Cavil's first outing, I'd say the OS is solid, if unspectacular.

Despite Reeve's immortalisation of the role, Superman is seen as the archetypal American superhero by foreign viewers. There's a certain distancing to the character until MoS.

 

[jokesonm3]

Damn right they are getting drunk if that happens.

It would not be impossible. IM3 actually is a good example. But if it is opening that large, you would think it would be because the buzz is great and thus under 200m would be very unlikely. But if it did somehow happen, that wouldn't be great going forward. I'd be worried about Wonder Woman.

Wonder Woman and the rest of the DC films that are monumental gigantic (BvS, Justice League and solo Batman films) i'm pegging at $600M at the minimum.

Although Wonder Woman needs to move, animated films are financial kryptonite to Superhero films.

 

[jokesonm3]

I don't disagree with that. I still don't know why they released the film in that buzz saw, while basically giving Pacific Rim free air. All the reports before the release seemed to show a real confidence in MoS. WB seemed legitimately shocked by the reaction the film got.

Lol that's the wierd thing, i think it had something to do with coinciding with Superman's 75th anniversary i believe, which is stupid on Warner Bros hand, they would have made tons more if they opened Man of Steel on a better and clear release month like Pacific Rim, but noooo WB decided to be iconic and faithful.

Thankfully the heads of WB got their head out thier ass and chose Later March during easter to release the film, in fact the way a lot of Marvel films release on May i would love it if DC films have a tradition of opening in late May, providing that BvS does good there. t:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

OS gross was low in relation to? For a superhero not named Spiderman, Batman and Iron Man in recent times, and in Cavil's first outing, I'd say the OS is solid, if unspectacular.

Despite Reeve's immortalisation of the role, Superman is seen as the archetypal American superhero by foreign viewers. There's a certain distancing to the character until MoS.

That is a real part of it I think. Superman is almost too American for some overseas markets. Hence why the presence of Batman is a very good thing. Which is why I can't peg the overseas number at all. 600m, 1.3bil, I would not be shocked by either.

Wonder Woman and the rest of the DC films that are monumental gigantic (BvS, Justice League and solo Batman films) i'm pegging at $600M at the minimum.

Although Wonder Woman needs to move, animated films are financial kryptonite to Superhero films.

I am hoping Wonder Woman gets moved up. Feels quite a ways of away at this point. Not sure why either.

 

[jokesonm3]

That is a real part of it I think. Superman is almost too American for some overseas markets. Hence why the presence of Batman is a very good thing. Which is why I can't peg the overseas number at all. 600m, 1.3bil, I would not be shocked by either.

Isn't Captain America considered too American?

Because the Winter Soldier did really good ($115M) in communist China.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Lol that's the wierd thing, i think it had something to do with coinciding with Superman's 75th anniversary i believe, which is stupid on Warner Bros hand, they would have made tons more if they opened Man of Steel on a better and clear release month like Pacific Rim, but noooo WB decided to be iconic and faithful.

Thankfully the heads of WB got their head out thier ass and chose Later March during easter to release the film, in fact the way a lot of Marvel films release on May i would love it if DC films have a tradition of opening in late May, providing that BvS does good there. t:

Usually what happens with a release date like this, is that they want to do big business, enough to move into one of the more traditional dates. Suicide Squad and BvS are using these new release dates, to gain classic ones, which explains the early dates for Wonder Woman and JL Part 1.

 

[jokesonm3]

Although China is honestly a weird place where apparently critical reception don't mean jack there if you pump it up enough with hype.

I mean Terminator Genysis did $100M+ in China

WB's San Andreas with the Rock did $100M in China.

both in 2015 while MoS did $60M in china

Really strange.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Isn't Captain America considered too American?

Because the Winter Soldier did really good ($115M) in communist China.

But that isn't 200m, and really all big films should be looking to get 200m at least in China. Aggressive expansion is happening there. Which is good for BvS.

 

[PacificBoy]

That is a real part of it I think. Superman is almost too American for some overseas markets. Hence why the presence of Batman is a very good thing. Which is why I can't peg the overseas number at all. 600m, 1.3bil, I would not be shocked by either.

Bats has huge appeal for the up and coming Asian markets like China, South Korea, Taiwan, India and Indonesia. Even Japan is still growing.

 

[jokesonm3]

But that isn't 200m, and really all big films should be looking to get 200m at least in China. Aggressive expansion is happening there. Which is good for BvS.

But compared to MoS it is quite big.

Btw how big do you think BvS's domestic opening weekend will be?

Factoring in things like trailers views and it's Easter release of course.