BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[rogbngp]

The only thing that's kinda making it difficult for us to believe that this film will get an RT score in the 90's percentile is Zack Snyder himself.

Critics can love Terrio's script, Ben and the cast's performance, Fongs cinematography, Zimmer's score etc. but i have a feeling that critics are somehow gonna blame Snyder on anything they could find, hell even in this day and age a film with a 75% on RT is like a 90% for a Snyder film lol, i still believe that out of all the critics that are gonna review this film for RT post embargo already have a predetermined biasism for Snyder and might give BvS a rotten review just because he made it.


But all in all from what Jurassic World has taught us, as long as this film has an Rotten Tomatoes score of a minimum of 70+ then i believe that it'll be good enough to have some good legs throughout April and have a good total worldwide Box Office run.

If BvS is chock-full of popcorn fun, thrills and excitement, with excellent performances, a bit of humor sprinkled in, giving us heartfelt, human connection moments, and well executed overall, then critics can also laud this "rehabilitated" Snyder that they're now seeing. They might be like "Hooray, he's alright now, he finally listened to us!" I.e., He's finally joined the mainstream. He could even be the toast of the town.

Anyway, if the film is all that the RT score will be in the 90s I do believe. The question is how edgy will Snyder be as an artist in his own right. I love the almost radical approach to the entire project that Snyder took with MoS (a deliberately controversial reinvention of a myth). I want to see him keep that same edge, but he has to somehow blend his very artistic, creative and visionary themes into a mainstream blockbuster. If he has subtly encoded them (and he is very good at that, I think), I think that is his best bet for achieving that balance.

There is so much riding on the success of this film that Snyder must deliver a mainstream crowd-pleaser. Snyder has to know that all too well. I suspect that the influence of Terrio and Affleck (Ben is in certain respects an even better director than Snyder) should be felt here. Can you imagine the conversations that must have taken place when Snyder, Affleck, and Terrio discussed how to make this film a surefire success?

 

[jokesonm3]

If BvS is chock-full of popcorn fun, thrills and excitement, with excellent performances, a bit of humor sprinkled in, giving us heartfelt, human connection moments, and well executed overall, then critics can also laud this "rehabilitated" Snyder that they're now seeing. They might be like "Hooray, he's alright now, he finally listened to us!" I.e., He's finally joined the mainstream. He could even be the toast of the town.

Anyway, if the film is all that the RT score will be in the 90s I do believe. The question is how edgy will Snyder be as an artist in his own right. I love the almost radical approach to the entire project that Snyder took with MoS (a deliberately controversial reinvention of a myth). I want to see him keep that same edge, but he has to somehow blend his very artistic, creative and visionary themes into a mainstream blockbuster. If he has subtly encoded them (and he is very good at that, I think), I think that is his best bet for achieving that balance.

There is so much riding on the success of this film that Snyder must deliver a mainstream crowd-pleaser. Snyder has to know that all too well. I suspect that the influence of Terrio and Affleck (Ben is in certain respects an even better director than Snyder) should be felt here. Can you imagine the conversations that must have taken place when Snyder, Affleck, and Terrio discussed how to make this film a surefire success?

I agree that from an audience perspective this film just needs to be some good old popcorn fun in order to ensure it has a good repeating value and strong legs at the Box Office.


And i really wish that this film gets a high RT score then the rest of Snyder's filmography so he really needs to bring in his A game for this film.

I mean let's look at the cast and crew for a second:

He's got an amazing screenwriters

He's got a talented cast

He's got a brilliant Composer

He's got a great cinematographer

He's got an awesome fight choreographer

He's got some damn good source material to work on.

He's got a concept with some unimaginable hype levels.

He's got WB pulling all their resources to market the hell outta this film

He's got a great release date on Easter weekend a time proven to be financially successful

He's got weeks of virtually no major competition for BvS to stay number one at the BO.

And finally everything that he and WB/DC have worked on in order to create a cinematic universe relies solely on this film.

So compared to every other film he has ever made in his career which had a couple of issues from the crew.

This film right here, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice has so many factors in place to help Snyder make a fantastic film.

I mean he has to truly mess this film up in order to not give this film a certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and as long as i've supported this film since its announcement on SDCC 2013 and through all the casting controversies, through its year delay and through its near three years of fine tuning and development etc. i truly truly hope that this film delivers.

 

[jokesonm3]

Anyway with all these factors i've mentioned im still pegging the OW at $191M domestic.

 

[rogbngp]

Anyway with all these factors i've mentioned im still pegging the OW at $191M domestic.

Did I read yesterday that Collider Heroes is predicting a $200M OW? Or am I misremembering something I may have glanced at?

 

[jokesonm3]

Did I read yesterday that Collider Heroes is predicting a $200M OW? Or am I misremembering something I may have glanced at?

Yeah when Campea, Schnepp and Ellis of Schmoes Knows were talking about whether or not Daredevil will affect the BvS OW (before the DD release date was announced), Ellis said that even if it's true this films still making a $200M+ domestic Opening Weekend.

Which is awesome to to know that someone in the industry believes that, really hope it does. t:

I mean imagine a $200M+ OW with good legs since that rumor you mentioned earlier said that folks were craving more, if that's the case then this film will do Gangbusters numbers as long as it delivers.

 

[rogbngp]

I wish I could find the source of that rumor... When I Google it I get most reddit stuff talking about it but no link to a source. For all I know it's Heroic Hollywood. Not that Gonzalez is wrong all the time. IIRC Gonzalez did confirm that to his knowledge at least one advanced screening had taken place when the first apparently fake reddit "review" appeared.

 

[jokesonm3]

Oh yeah that rumor was some complete El Maybe nonsense so it's probably not true.

 

[mclay18]

The Collider crew is predicting $200M+ opening weekend

While a $200M+ opening would be spectacular, especially for March, BVS would need same kind of buzz surrounding Jurassic World (word-of-mouth pumped it from $125M+ to $207M) or TFA ($180M+ to $247M). Right now, I can't see it at that level.

$150M+ would be a sizeable bump from MOS's $116M opening. Anything significantly higher is just gravy.

 

[jokesonm3]

While a $200M+ opening would be spectacular, especially for March, BVS would need same kind of buzz surrounding Jurassic World (word-of-mouth pumped it from $125M+ to $207M) or TFA ($180M+ to $247M). Right now, I can't see it at that level.

$150M+ would be a sizeable bump from MOS's $116M opening. Anything significantly higher is just gravy.

And the buzz generated from fans that get to see Batman v Superman a week early will ensure it a strong word of mouth for a much higher opening weekend then $150M

 

[rogbngp]

While a $200M+ opening would be spectacular, especially for March, BVS would need same kind of buzz surrounding Jurassic World (word-of-mouth pumped it from $125M+ to $207M) or TFA ($180M+ to $247M). Right now, I can't see it at that level.

$150M+ would be a sizeable bump from MOS's $116M opening. Anything significantly higher is just gravy.

It's Batman and Superman (and Wonder Woman) together for the first time in a live action film. That's not a huge movie event?

 

[STARMAN]

I'm keeping expectations below a 200 opening weekend. You don't want to create scenarios where a 170 opening is a disappointment.

 

[rogbngp]

I'm keeping expectations below a 200 opening weekend. You don't want to create scenarios where a 170 opening is a disappointment.

Good point. At the bottom line I just hope it's a really entertaining movie!

 

[mclay18]

It's Batman and Superman (and Wonder Woman) together for the first time in a live action film. That's not a huge movie event?

It is a big movie event, but it has to tick enough boxes and satisfy enough people to hit that magic $200M+ in a weekend. Even Avengers 2 couldn't hit $200M, a highly-anticipated sequel to a well-loved movie.

Just because we have three movies that hit $200M+ on opening weekend, doesn't mean BVS will join their ranks. WB will be happy with it opening $150M+ or higher, and it'll cruise past $300M+ domestically. If it opens higher and closes above expectations, they'd be ecstatic.

 

[jokesonm3]

I'm keeping expectations below a 200 opening weekend. You don't want to create scenarios where a 170 opening is a disappointment.

Agreed, $200M+ plus would be insanely amazing but honestly as long as it's above $175M then im happy with it.

 

[jokesonm3]

It is a big movie event, but it has to tick enough boxes and satisfy enough people to hit that magic $200M+ in a weekend. Even Avengers 2 couldn't hit $200M, a highly-anticipated sequel to a well-loved movie.

Well you can thank Mayweather running around in circles for that.

 

[rogbngp]

It is a big movie event, but it has to tick enough boxes and satisfy enough people to hit that magic $200M+ in a weekend. Even Avengers 2 couldn't hit $200M, a highly-anticipated sequel to a well-loved movie.

Just because we have three movies that hit $200M+ on opening weekend, doesn't mean BVS will join their ranks. WB will be happy with it opening $150M+ or higher, and it'll cruise past $300M+ domestically. If it opens higher and closes above expectations, they'd be ecstatic.

I agree. I think we only see $200M if the movie is truly a smash. I.e., if it's an amazingly fun film that gets tremendous word of mouth.

 

[brandeezy89]

Avengers 2 suffered from the Floyd vs Pac. fight. They were estimated to do $220m+ after Thursday's showings. Also add in the fact that the reviews weren't stellar like the 1st one.

 

[jokesonm3]

I don't think that the reviews or RT score affected the Avengers 2 box office honestly.

I mean if Jurassic World can get away with doing gangbuster numbers with a 71% un certified score on RT then the Avengers 2 sure can.

 

[metaphysician]

I can understand predicting a movie being a shoe in for $1B + but how can you predict a movie to be 90%+ on RT?

Indeed. I would say there's decent odds that *some* CBM in 2016 will be 90+, but that's partly because there are so many. BvS, CW, Deadpool, X-Men Apocalypse, Dr Strange, Suicide Squad- that's a lot of shots on goal. I certainly wouldn't make any strong guesses at which one, though, aside from "probably not BvS, given how much the critics hated the prior movie."

 

[Flint Marko]

Critics can love Terrio's script, Ben and the cast's performance, Fongs cinematography, Zimmer's score etc. but i have a feeling that critics are somehow gonna blame Snyder on anything they could find, hell even in this day and age a film with a 75% on RT is like a 90% for a Snyder film lol, i still believe that out of all the critics that are gonna review this film for RT post embargo already have a predetermined biasism for Snyder and might give BvS a rotten review just because he made it.

If Snyder makes a good film, the critics will acknowledge it. Seriously, let's completely let go of this nonsense idea that the critics have a chip on their shoulder against him.

 

[Nemeres]

I could actually see BVS and Snyder surprising people with a thoroughly well-received film, more out of the "anything that can happen will happen" cosmic law than anything else. Even the supporters are expecting it to be yet another divisive flick and preemptively discrediting RT and critics -- it feels that's the way it should go, while the surprising thing would be the opposite. And yet surprises is what I personally keep seeing at regular intervals this decade. Just two years ago, who would have thought that the latest Bryan Singer film would be better received than the latest by Whedon. That happened, so what wouldn't.

And there's the confidence this exudes from a risk standpoint. It's so brazenly doing so many unadvisable things, everything ranging from the "grimdark for everyone!" approach to the cramming of characters and rushed universe building, and this in a post-TASM2 era. It's so crazy that the actual message that comes across is "We know what we're doing. We think we're onto something". It almost feels like the nuts risk-taking that precedes a windfall at Poker.

 

[jokesonm3]

What this film needs is at least 70% on RT to be considered a moderately good film.

Besides those lucky yanks that get to enjoy this film a week early mainly consists of fanboys of this film correct?

I predict that those fans are gonna be the main contributor to this films early word of mouth and initial pre week hype for a good opening weekend.

 

[Angel0fDeath]

It's no coincidence that whatever "critics" say is amazing, the GA don't like as much. And when these same "critics" say something is "rotten" or whatever the **** they call it on that site, the GA like it. (edit : the image is not to compare the movies)

 

[jokesonm3]

As a DC fan i can safely say that every MCU film is superior to Superman Returns.

Even the dreaded Iron Man 3.

 

[Flint Marko]

It's no coincidence that whatever "critics" say is amazing, the GA don't like as much. And when these same "critics" say something is "rotten" or whatever the **** they call it on that site, the GA like it. (edit : the image is not to compare the movies)

I can think of dozens of different examples that prove this isn't the case. You're painting with an awfully large brush.