BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

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It's no coincidence that whatever "critics" say is amazing, the GA don't like as much. And when these same "critics" say something is "rotten" or whatever the **** they call it on that site, the GA like it. (edit : the image is not to compare the movies)

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What I find interesting about these stats is the review counts. Like technically mos has more fresh scores than stm. How and why, pretty much says plenty when it comes to RT.

If Snyder makes a good film, the critics will acknowledge it. Seriously, let's completely let go of this nonsense idea that the critics have a chip on their shoulder against him.
Just like the other generalization you were keen on(preconceptions 'not' affecting criticism). This similar proclamation requires more work on your part than the opposing stance. Rather all one has to do is show the existence of such things(like with the last one) to be demonstrably correct for the opposition points to sheer and or mere existence whereas your stance makes a bolder claim; that of one not the other. Case in point, look up the notorious Joanna Robinsion of vanity fair's unapologetic thoughts on Zack Snyder.
Verbalized to a point in her stint on her entertaining slashfilm podcast review on the film. It's very easy to see her stance but even easier to see it's existence. Will someone like this likely review(cause she's one of these people that officially does this apparently) the film 'fairly' if it's great? Perhaps. But where will someone like this fall if the film is just ok. Perhaps the same place they did last time who knows I guess. The way you say 'good film', one would think this wasn't entirely subjective Maybe if instead of critics you suggested as well 'good critics'(interesting notion). People will like what they like, especially when it comes to giving a movie a pass for 'being fun' or what not. Perhaps if this was science magazine but with film criticism it's unfortunately not so.

Long story short, I think the nonsense as you put it, will continue.
 
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What I find interesting about these stats is the review counts. Like technically mos has more fresh scores than stm. How and why, pretty much says plenty when it comes to RT.

Just like the other generalization you were keen on(preconceptions 'not' affecting criticism). This similar proclamation requires more work on your part than the opposing stance. Rather all one has to do is show the existence of such things(like with the last one) to be demonstrably correct for the opposition points to sheer and or mere existence whereas your stance makes a bolder claim; that of one not the other. Case in point, look up the notorious Joanna Robinsion of vanity fair's unapologetic thoughts on Zack Snyder.
Verbalized to a point in her stint on her entertaining slashfilm podcast review on the film. It's very easy to see her stance but even easier to see it's existence. Will someone like this likely review(cause she's one of these people that officially does this apparently) the film 'fairly' if it's great? Perhaps. But where will someone like this fall if the film is just ok. Perhaps the same place they did last time who knows I guess. The way you say 'good film', one would think this wasn't entirely subjective Maybe if instead of critics you suggested as well 'good critics'(interesting notion). People will like what they like, especially when it comes to giving a movie a pass for 'being fun' or what not. Perhaps if this was science magazine but with film criticism it's unfortunately not so.

Long story short, I think the nonsense as you put it, will continue.

That's so crazy, only a few minutes hearing her talk about Snyder and her self-admitted "prejudice" against him is backed up by several clear, well-defined criticisms that have been repeated ad nauseam by countless other movie critics and online writers.
It's almost like they're judging each individual film on it's own merit and finding the same general problems within the content itself, and that if he were to fix these perceived problems (for example, she admits that his portrayal of women in MoS was an improvement upon his previous movies) this supposed "bias" would go away. Heck, it's almost like this "bias" doesn't exist....
Again I pose this question. What is more likely: a large enough group of unrelated film critics around the globe have a secret conspiracy against Snyder and his work, or comic book movie fans who frequent superhero message boards have a problem when film critics don't like their preferred movie as much as they do, so they chalk it up to some "bias" to justify it?
 
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She says she hates Snyder and refuses to give him credit ever.
https://***********/jowrotethis/status/293798732313526274

That's not well-reasoned.

And of course bias exists, whether it be for or against certain creators or genres. Maybe it exists against Snyder and DC in general right now, maybe there's an rising bias against superhero movies and the supposed homogenization of Hollywood, maybe not. I doubt any of us trusts critic consensus all the time.
 
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Yep, pure biasism.

Makes me sick that she's already written her review for BvS to the Justice League Part Two. :o
 
Movie is gonna make serious bank!!
 
That's so crazy, only a few minutes hearing her talk about Snyder and her self-admitted "prejudice" against him is backed up by several clear, well-defined criticisms that have been repeated ad nauseam by countless other movie critics and online writers.
It's almost like they're judging each individual film on it's own merit and finding the same general problems within the content itself, and that if he were to fix these perceived problems (for example, she admits that his portrayal of women in MoS was an improvement upon his previous movies) this supposed "bias" would go away. Heck, it's almost like this "bias" doesn't exist....
Again I pose this question. What is more likely: a large enough group of unrelated film critics around the globe have a secret conspiracy against Snyder and his work, or comic book movie fans who frequent superhero message boards have a problem when film critics don't like their preferred movie as much as they do, so they chalk it up to some "bias" to justify it?

To answer your question, how about both and more? Only again you are asking us to declare one doesn't exist? Surely, you see where this logically concludes.
Moreover who said anything about a ‘secret conspiracy’? May as well cite ‘criminal conspiracy’ to really paint that painting. Nah, it’s just an accepted bias, no hiding, just like there is no hiding about the bay or Tarantino or Abrams or any of them really. Is what it is.

As for this idea that her bias is justified? If you have an issue with a direction style and you present 'well defined' though hotly argued criticisms, that doesn't then mean the next film has to cater to your inclinations to be considered an improvement to anyone but you, especially when you are submitting your reviews into some official tally and thus making an argument for the general quality of the film not personal. Like if someone said they hate that the humor and tone in ‘all’ the mcu films undermine the drama, and they make 'well defined though hotly argued criticisms’(like the dozens I see on the boards), that if the next mcu film does the right thing and caters to my criticism then I will grant it an improvement generally speaking? Even though people are still actively punching all sorts of holes in my line on thinking? This is a bias imo. I hating action in films, or romance in all hollywood films, same deal.
As pointed out towards the end, mos supposedly being the first snyder movie without rape is some great accomplishment(in her opinion). Then dude says well the owl movie didn't have it either(so it’s not all he does). Ok, then the other other dude points out how the two prior adaptations had rape in the original content so whatever feminist issue she is taking upon the director is perhaps ill found and her real issue is with (the well received) Watchmen or 300 original and seminal works? She doesn't read comics apparently. As for sucker punch it’s a metaphor about the sexually assaulted then breaking free and thus rape in the material may lend itself to…all of it a debate is the point. Heck maybe if moore wanted to improve watchmen in the future he'd do the right thing, for that next installment of his could overcome this particular bias generally speaking by doing the right thing. Effectively arguing that in order to improve his book he need meet my well defined bias.

I pose this question, just because you can argue your bias(to the point where people agree) doesn't mean it's not a bias. Ask any intelligent mcu hater to argue their hate. Right or wrong that doesn't mean they don't have a 'bias' going into the next mcu movie, it also doesn't mean the bias can't be overcome with a certain kind of movie but that a better movie for this person is automatically a better movie, is sham imo
. I personally care little for this particular issue(thus never bring it up), I just figured I'd try and point something out. Directors and artists in general, all of them have to work against their biased receivers, 'justified' or not. Not always a bad thing either. Suggesting reception of art is fair however? That I can't accept. Critics having a title that coaxes the public into thinking they are above this bothers me. But that's another thread.
 
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Avengers 2 suffered from the Floyd vs Pac. fight. They were estimated to do $220m+ after Thursday's showings. Also add in the fact that the reviews weren't stellar like the 1st one.

I still love the first Avengers, but AOU was one of the big disappointments last year. I knew it was going to be different from the first, but plot-wise and character-wise it was overstuffed, unsatisfying, and no real emotional connection to any of the characters. I'm glad Whedon stepped away from the MCU when he did, he doesn't do sequels well.

I don't think that the reviews or RT score affected the Avengers 2 box office honestly.

I mean if Jurassic World can get away with doing gangbuster numbers with a 71% un certified score on RT then the Avengers 2 sure can.

It wasn't just the RT score, but word caught on that JW delivered and people came out in droves. Nostalgia and franchise goodwill only goes so far if the film can't deliver elsewhere. People enjoyed it enough to recommend it to their friends and family, fueling that impressive $208M opening and giving it a nice 3x multiplier when it left theaters.

BVS doesn't have the nostalgia that fueled JW and TFA's successes, but it is a novelty for several reasons. Curiosity might bring out the MOS haters to see if Snyder improved, DC fans will come to see how well Affleck and Gadot play Batman and WW, and everyone else will come out for the 'event' status.
 
She says she hates Snyder and refuses to give him credit ever.
https://***********/jowrotethis/status/293798732313526274

When you call yourself a professional writer/critic and say "I hate so and so and will never give them credit ever", that is the moment I stop taking you seriously.
 
OW numbers for this movie will be interesting. I'm hoping it breaks 200M if not then get super close to it.
 
I'm baffled now lol. :funny:

Are we taking $200M domestically OW or domestically overall?

Haha, I was talking about OW numbers domestically. Should have been more clear in my first post I guess lol. My bad.
 
Haha, I was talking about OW numbers domestically. Should have been more clear in my first post I guess lol. My bad.

Ah now i get it lol. :woot:

And yeah that would be amazing if BvS does that OW domestically!

Btw quick question, for the folks that get to see BvS a week early before the reviews kick in.

Since their all BvS fans who were willing to travel to the theatres just to see a trailer, do you think that their hype can generate strong word of mouth for the film prior to its release?

Because if they can then that $200M domestic OW would sound more likely to happen.
 
Directors and artists in general, all of them have to work against their biased receivers, 'justified' or not. Not always a bad thing either. Suggesting reception of art is fair however? That I can't accept.
Strictly speaking, of course there is no such thing as objective review, as every personal opinion is defined by one's own tastes. Bias is built-in.

As you said though, every artist has to deal with this with every project they put out. But by far, Zack has been the most used figurehead to be painted as an exception in that he "unfairly" gets the most negativity thrown towards him for "no reason". And that I simply find fascinating.

Never mind that critics have little time to focus their negative energy on a single person, but Zack isn't the only artist to have consistent divisive or middling reviews over the course of their career. So why does the discussion ultimately always boil down to Zack's films not being judged fairly? Why is there almost never a fanboy consensus that his style is simply not the type to unite audiences, and be done with it? It's not like he's a newcomer. He's been doing this over a decade. At some point I would think people would come to terms with how critics and fans are receptive to his films.

If one were to take a collective opinion of an artist/performer who had consistently been garnering rave reviews over their lifespan, it would be baffling to presume there was an unfair confirmation bias in favor of their work over others. Same should apply for the opposite. After a certain amount of time, I don't try to analyze ulterior motives (consciously or not), but just a present fact of "it is what it is".
 
Let's look at optimistic, pessimistic and realistic scenarios for OW numbers. MoS did 128M with Walmart included and with Father's Day helping Sunday holds. Now Walmart was not fully sold out, but we can take a 50% number as a lot of shows were sold out, and if Sunday was a normal day MoS would have fallen 35% based on historical comparisons.

So that means the OW of MoS if it released on a normal weekend would have been around 116M split up as 14M previews, 35M Friday, 35M Saturday, 28M Sunday.

Now BvS needs to beat each of those numbers by 10M to break the March OW record and TDKR i.e. 24M preview, 45M Friday, 45M Saturday, 38M Sunday. The biggest advantage BvS has on OW is Good Friday and Easter i.e. a holiday Friday and a Sunday where the whole family is already outside together and looking for a movie to watch.

Last year Furious 7, Jurassic World and Mockingjay 2 all ended with around 18M in previews and AOU got 27M in previews. Star Wars is an anomaly with the 55M it did in previews. TDKR had done 30M at midnight. I have no idea why I am throwing out those numbers, but MJ2, Furious 7 and Jurassic World had very little promotion of "Watch it at previews" and F7 and JW didn't take off till mid-Friday when it turned out both were being underestimated.

So if the BvS campaign can drill the "March 24th early shows everywhere" message, I think a 20-22M previews is possible. Friday is the big day and will decide how the OW will go, if reviews are good and the early screening word of mouth is good, then a 50M+ Friday is definitely possible, around 52-55M or even higher can be expected.

Saturday will fall a bit from Friday to around 45M, and Sunday will fall around 20% to 37M, together giving us a 154-165M OW as a pretty realistic target which will lead to around a 400-450M finish.

Pessimistically, it doesn't do much more than MoS did and ends with around a 130M OW and a 350M finish. Optimistically, word of mouth just catches fire and it ends with a 190M+ OW and a 500M+ finish.
 
That was a good read Fake, really interesting. :up:

But i doubt with reviews like let's say MoS mixed, we won't get something as low as $130M unless it's really bad like T4 bad.

Plus i highly believe that the initial strong word of mouth set by the DC fans that get to see this film early, coupled with the fact that during Easter Weekend, fridays are really strong compared to the the weekends .

I highly believe that Friday for BvS, we'll get a figure of the $80M+ range based on those factors.
 
Strictly speaking, of course there is no such thing as objective review, as every personal opinion is defined by one's own tastes. Bias is built-in.

As you said though, every artist has to deal with this with every project they put out. But by far, Zack has been the most used figurehead to be painted as an exception in that he "unfairly" gets the most negativity thrown towards him for "no reason". And that I simply find fascinating.

Never mind that critics have little time to focus their negative energy on a single person, but Zack isn't the only artist to have consistent divisive or middling reviews over the course of their career. So why does the discussion ultimately always boil down to Zack's films not being judged fairly? Why is there almost never a fanboy consensus that his style is simply not the type to unite audiences, and be done with it? It's not like he's a newcomer. He's been doing this over a decade. At some point I would think people would come to terms with how critics and fans are receptive to his films.

If one were to take a collective opinion of an artist/performer who had consistently been garnering rave reviews over their lifespan, it would be baffling to presume there was an unfair confirmation bias in favor of their work over others. Same should apply for the opposite. After a certain amount of time, I don't try to analyze ulterior motives (consciously or not), but just a present fact of "it is what it is".

Like Bay, the movies unite audiences just fine. The discussion as far as I'm concerned is that of an extremely finite amount of the audience we like to call critics. An artists makes something for himself and his audience and whether critics accept or understand this is what it is. Jackson Pollock could tell you all about that, seeing as how critics took a while to decide what his audience already knew.
If everyone that loves nolan has been doing so from a place of bias that could easily be questioned too if someone wanted to I suppose. The idea that it doesn't exists is the issue. What arbitrates this is the masses, an entire world of biases from every which way makes it then as fair as one could ask.
My measure of accomplishment in art, is the communication of finding an audiences and speaking to them. The kid that can paint his mother's favorite crayola at will. The techno dj that can captivate an entire generation in ways mozzarts old stuff does absolutely nothing for. Seeking out the bias and catering to those people, the mastery of art is connecting to an your audience in my artistic opinion. Your audience likes to laugh, you make them laugh well vs make a so called 'good movie' by whomever at the time decides what that is. Why we let some tea spoon of the world audience somehow let their personal opinion decide any of these conversations...I'm not really cool with but that's beside the point I suppose.

As for why the discussion has brought this upon Zack and no one else. I have a feeling it might have to do with the fact that this discussion is about this his follow up to his last film. Otherwise people would be bringing this up on some other person. Some people don't like his style and they are bound to not see past that again(admittedly) regardless of if the movie is 'worthy' of praise or not. It happens. That it happens with critics and we can't see past that enough to not let them as in JRob here, inform our discussions in this place..again not a fan. Is what it is as you say. I'm not really one to bring it up.

Spider-Man 3 faced Shrek 3 and POTC3 in its second/third weekend. It doesn't get much bigger than that. Yet all 3 performed wonderfully at the box office.

Memory serves, spm3 didn’t have much competition in it’s second week. That alone is the crux of all of this, for the later you face big competition in your run the better for you. It’s far easier to deal with a mega movie cutting your 5th weekend hundred thousand in half vs a mega film cutting your opening in half and thus on. The more time you have to make your big money in peace the better. Point being, not having your second weekend kamikazeed is worse than having your third.

Second point, did any of these 2007 films face bigger than 145 million worth of direct and diverse competition in their second weekend? Building off of the first point, when Spiderman 3's third weekend did happen, there wasn't 145million worth of direct competition cutting it’s legs off before it even got started.

Moreover, the idea that facing off with more than one film with more than one of your demos being far more difficult than a solitary competitor is crucial in any of these comparisons. It's like if you have a film out, and people walk into the theater and see another option, it's probable that they will still choose your film if they don't like that other one. Now if you give them say 5 other big options all different types, the probability goes down: "Oh well I'm not feeling harry potter...but you know that winter soldier is also out so maybe we should watch that instead of Jurassic world, nah I wanna see a big comedy but luckily hang over isn't out so perhaps we can see that other thing from last week fine...." Point here being people that didn't watch shrek that third weekend were more likely to watch spm3 than nothing at all…vs the people that opted out of monsters U, instead watching WWZ over MOS.

Lastly, This idea that mos would have made more if the audience liked it better. Yea no kidding, name a movie where this isn’t applicable. If Avengers had more people enjoying it, it may have made starwars/avatar let alone JW money. The point is how much did it make. Last I checked approaching 300mill isn’t all that likely for many cbms. I feel like if the movie made 350 then people here could still claim that if it wasn’t so divisive then it would have made more like 400mill..
At what point does the domestic haul tell us if people liked it, if it’s making this much more than the average non event cbm, than maybe people liked it, more than the last one anyways. If people liked it more is always in the heavy subjective realm, again see Jurassic World, could have made much more if peopled liked it. What isn’t as subjective it the clear indicator of competition for one can imagine a scenario in which no other movies that year let alone that weekend opened and predicted some sort of result. As for if people liked it or not....I can already see the RT argument rolling in peoples minds..

One needs to ask themselves not if all those 2007 films made money, clearly they did, but rather how much more any of these films would have made with less competition. All those movies were big closers to mega trilogies so perhaps the numbers they pulled in is technically on the lower end for them vs what they could have made with no competition. We've already seen the difference between MoS' numbers and a superman Reboot with far less comp. All those 2007 examples could have made more, I argue this in light of how much more each of their prior sequels made, films which themselves in fact and truly performed ‘wonderfully’ as you say. About a hundred million more it seems... With that and to answer your proposition in simplest terms, perhaps competition did play a role, I wouldn’t rule it out.
 
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