BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 8

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The movie would need a 70-80% drop week 2 for it to even approach flop territory
60% would give it a decent return and then a 40 or 50 the following week would give it another.
Its already approaching the record for opening weekend in china

1 billion + is almost easy at this point
 
Deadpool's Monday was on United States Federal Holiday (no school and no work for a lot of people) and it had a recommend rate of 92% and Cinemascore of A
According to Deadline "Advance ticket sales firms are reporting that BvS is already generating 30% more repeat business than is typical, and late night shows are bigger than even Warner Bros. calculated.".

i think you guys are gonna be surprised by the drop % next week
 
It was nothing but doom, gloom and negativity yesterday. I guess negative people always tend to be the most vocal.
 
Honestly, I think all the buzz about bad reviews has sort of peeked people's curiosity and made them want to see for themselves.

I feel like if it'd just got mediocre ones, maybe the opening weekend wouldn't have been as strong :funny:
 
deadpool had a higher monday than avengers

I was just about to say this. There is only a short list of films that grossed $20 million or more on a Monday following opening weekend:

X-Men: The Last Stand $20M
Shrek 2: $23M
The Dark Knight: $24M
POTC At World's End: $25M
Jurassic World: $25M
Indiana Jones 4: $26M
Spider-Man 2: $27M
Star Wars TFA: $40M & $31M

I don't know if BvS can join that club but if it grosses $10-$12 million on Monday, then that is not a good sign going forward into its 2nd weekend.
 
That "biggest superhero opening ever" is such a spin job. AoU was $392m without China which opened a week later with $150m.. $542m is the real number.

I mean it's actually kind of embarrassing that Warner Brothers and fans are trying to frame it that way..

China for AOU came two weeks later and you have to remember it opened in europe like a 1- 2 weeks before it came out in the us.
What that 542m is for almost a month not 2 weeks.
 
Honestly, I think all the buzz about bad reviews has sort of peeked people's curiosity and made them want to see for themselves.

I feel like if it'd just got mediocre ones, maybe the opening weekend wouldn't have been as strong :funny:

Or maybe the movie is not a the best one, but it is not worse than many other good sh movies
 
29% RT score could not pull BvS down, the opposite will happen. People who were hesitant to see the movie because of poor RT score will go to see the movie because of the huge opening. This makes the RT score irrelevant.

And what about the B Cinemascore and only 60% recommend rate???


Better WOM and this thing should have easily done $450-$460m WW OW. But i'm sure you spinsters won't focus on that..
 
Well said. The fact that something so pathetic and mediocre is going to get rewarded irks me to no end. No one cares about Transformers, but the fact that Batman and Superman are being reduced to that is disappointing.

It definitely is the end times isn't it. :csad:
 
biggest worldwide opening for a superhero movie to date
Some of that is down to day and date of china as well but its gotta be somewhat a pyrrhic victory for WB since it would have been even bigger if the critics didn't savage the film.

All in all just get it right with Justice League and the DCEU will be big

You guys are REALLY overestimating how much impact critics have on the box office for these types of films.

People were going to go see this movie regardless of how poor the reviews were. Tickets were being bought WELL before any critics had reviewed the film.
 
And what about the B Cinemascore and only 60% recommend rate???


Better WOM and this thing should have easily done $450-$460m WW OW. But i'm sure you spinsters won't focus on that..

Post some WOM stats because in one of the older threads, Deadline posted an article that had WOM very good. We're talking 80% with parents and kids under the age of 12.
 
I don't know if BvS can join that club but if it grosses $10-$12 million on Monday, then that is not a good sign going forward into its 2nd weekend.

What would be a reasonable, but encouraging, Monday gross?
 
For some reason my posts from this morning were deleted so I guess I'll just repost (Zod bless Google Docs).

It's easy to understand this "hater hater hater" stuff if everyone would shelve their like/dislike of the movie itself and look at what it represents. BvS represents the live action realization of many comics fans most favorite heroes. It's the first time they are ever seen together on the big screen in their history. It's the tent pole of all tent poles to usher in the most famous comic book superteam ever. It comes on the heels of a film that had a lukewarm reception. It comes after a three year wait, one year of which was inexplicable and very frustrating for even a casual fan. It comes with an insane amount of publicity. It comes with an Oscar winning screenwriter who was the Great White Hope of this franchise. It comes on months and months of reports of positive word of mouth, some going as far as to say studio execs gave it standing ovations in test screenings. It comes with equal parts anticipation and skepticism. It's without the doubt the most talked about movie this summer. No matter where you turn there is a promotion for this movie. Everyone knows about it. Grandmothers, priests, neighbors who don't really go to the movies. Over the past few months fans were given a downpour of visual engagement and promises that THIS was the movie they've been waiting forever for and THIS was the movie that would absolutely satisfy them. Amid the whispers and stories of problems surrounding it, hardly anyone gave up hope. Fans waved their BvS banners loud and proud and struck down anyone who tried to even manage their expectations. We're they wrong? Hell no. That is the movie they were sold. But it's not the movie they got. What a Beautiful Lie.

It doesn't matter if you liked this movie. It doesn't matter if you hated this movie. Truly, neither of those factor in. What matters is understanding that this entire experience was stillborn. Is this what you wanted this release to look like? DC fan civil war? Fans are divided almost equally and very brutally. Most haven't even seen this kind of vitriol in even Marvel vs DC debates. A movie that was supposed to unite a fan base ala Avengers has divided it quicker than anything else DC related has, quite possibly ever. Think about that. You may have liked the movie. That's for you to decide. But you cannot deny that the entire experience of this movie's production, release and fallout has been a frustrating, exhausting and unsatisfying one for all of us. We, who it was supposed to champion. It failed us. The filmmakers failed us. And the studio, who obviously knew this was on the horizon, failed us most of all. People aren't hating the movie, they're hating what the movie represents. A waste of a decade or more of hope and promise, leading to an unsure cinematic future. These characters deserved better and so did we.

And to the one or two Snarky McSnarksters who will undoubtedly pull the "relax bro it's just a superhero thing" to prove some nonsensical point. Of course it's just a superhero thing. But superheroes are important. If you don't believe that just Google "Batkid" and educate yourself.

And now, I'm off of here till the next big movie drops. It's been an eye opening three weeks, and an exhausting last three days being on here pretty much 24/7. Learned a lot. Took a ton of notes and screencaps I'll be putting to use next week. Seriously, both sides, thanks for the market research. You have no idea how helpful this has been. I'll leave you with two things to think about. Based on the past 5,000 posts as of 12:01 this morning:

42% of comments were on the negative side of this movie
48% were on the positive side
Less than 10% were completely off topic but still argumentative

39% of comments referenced Marvel and/or Fox and/or Sony in a negative way

33% of comments used the word "hater" or "troll"

38% of users are firmly in the "replace Zack Snyder" court

And here's a fun one: 8 new users with over 30 posts are accounts created on WB IPs in Burbank, CA. (And two of those created threads)

Also, Henry Cavill has been reading the board. Even last night. Be judgmental but kind.


Lastly, remember at the end of the day it really is only a movie. Even if it's a bad one. It could be worse. It could be a musical. #StayGold

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Whoa.

Gotta say Poni, you've made the aftermath of this movie much more interesting with your insider knowledge and clear experience in this field.

You're also hilarious, lol.
 
What would be a reasonable, but encouraging, Monday gross?

It depends on how much the official drop is going from Saturday to Sunday. If Sunday's gross truly is $37M then I can see a Monday gross in the $15M range which is pretty reasonable.
 
And what about the B Cinemascore and only 60% recommend rate???


Better WOM and this thing should have easily done $450-$460m WW OW. But i'm sure you spinsters won't focus on that..

Everything is possible. But according to the "cinemascore theory" we should have appreciated an evident drop even during this weekend. Yesterday I saw posts about worrying decreasing percentages of thickets sales for saturday and sunday.
 
Post some WOM stats because in one of the older threads, Deadline posted an article that had WOM very good. We're talking 80% with parents and kids under the age of 12.

he keep saying the same ancient cinemascore data:cwink:

deadline is reporting 30% more repeat business than usual
 
29% RT score could not pull BvS down, the opposite will happen. People who were hesitant to see the movie because of poor RT score will go to see the movie because of the huge opening. This makes the RT score irrelevant.

This makes no sense at all.

If they were hesitant to see the movie because of the RT score there is no logical reason they'd suddenly go see it because it did well at the box office. If anything those people would wait till someone they know goes to see the movie and they'd just ask them if it's good or not. Among the general audience the reception seems to be mixed.
 
Age of Ultron had 154 million at the 7 day mark in China. I looked it up

It had 85 million after 3 day mark
 
Could you imagine what the box office could've been if the movie was more well received!!
 
Or maybe the movie is not a the best one, but it is not worse than many other good sh movies

Sorry, I don't understand what your saying.

I loved the film. I'm just commenting that it's ridiculously bad reviews may have actually had an unforseen positive effect on the box office.
 
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