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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at the BoX Office

BoX office worldwide gross


  • Total voters
    14
  • Poll closed .
I may need to adjust mine too.
- Internationally it's doing much worse than Strange.
- Reviews and word of mouth is good but not exceptional. There are many people who find it meh, both here and everywhere I happened to have seen.
- Like I said before, the sad tone, slow pacing and very long runtime is going to affect its legs. Multiverse of Madness was a fast-paced two hour movie with many cameos and details that people felt the need to see again. I haven't heard anyone proclaiming they're going to see Wakanda Forever again any time soon.
Next weekend's drop is going to clear things out more.
U haven't heard anyone say they're gonna see it again--- ur frame of reference isn't even 1% of the population that's super silly . But hey u have been consistent with going on the lower side of things for this movie (u and 2 others) and to be fair I've been equally consistent the other way. My first prediction that it would have the biggest November of all time is true and we'll check back in wk 3 for the others. A few others also said it wouldn't do as well as the first internationally I believe:

Like for like, up to this point it's outperforming the original internationally- so out of the gate it's ahead (they didn't include China or Russia so the comparison is like for like).

Many people point to the long run time hindering the film’s opening numbers, but the strong reception should see this one leg out quite nicely.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney) is a per-theater average of $40,946 (4,396 theaters estimated at $180 million) Larger than what Dr.Strange did but since Wakanda Forever had less theaters showing it and a longer run time it came up short of Dr.Strange even though more people per theater showed up to this!

I say by wk 3 it jumps ahead of Strange bot domestically and internationally but up to that will lag behind. Time will reveal all either way-- but regardless of all that no can deny it's a huge success and a win for the MCU!
 
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In the US, Wakanda Forever and Multiverse of Madness had a very similar opening. I gave my arguments as to why I think it will probably make a bit less but I can't know until at least next weekend and since right now they're both very close, it remains to be seen which one will have a better overall run.

However, in international markets, Panther opened pretty much everywhere with almost 220 million less. It's not a matter of opinion here. It simply won't make as much in the rest of the world.
 
In the US, Wakanda Forever and Multiverse of Madness had a very similar opening. I gave my arguments as to why I think it will probably make a bit less but I can't know until at least next weekend and since right now they're both very close, it remains to be seen which one will have a better overall run.
However, in international markets, Panther opened pretty much everywhere with almost 220 million less. It's not a matter of opinion here. It simply won't make as much in the rest of the world.
that's not true-- I will search the article that gave the international break down. I didn't make the #s up it did a comparison of what was made and said 'like for like- it is currently outpacing the original black Panther market for market (they subtracted the markets where it's not playing right now for a fair comparison). So while it may make less if u figure in places it played in 2018 vs places it's playing now, it's making more comparing the spots it's currently playing now!

also think it'll take the lead in 3rd wk so 2 wks won't be enough for me to be convinced but if that's not the case by the 3rd wknd then it won't catch it in my opinion
 
If it hits a billion that’s a success
900 million would be good
800 million disappointment
700 million bad
600 million disaster

im thinking it hits 900 million
 
Hmm well you have to know the production budget first. If it doubles its production budget then I think its a success. Not sure if they need to recoup Marketing costs through the boX office but lets assume its another $100 million

I'm guessing
$100 million - marketing
$200 million - production
For a total of 300 million

If they double that amount at the boX office alone I say its a success? More money would come from merchandise, product placement, sponsorships, digital download, renting, physical media, cable rights and streaming.
 
If it hits a billion that’s a success
900 million would be good
800 million disappointment
700 million bad
600 million disaster


im thinking it hits 900 million

Okay, I know everyone and their mother on the internet likes to think that they're box office experts, but in what universe would something akin to 700 or 800 million be considered bad or a disappointment? It's not like this film's budget ballooned due to some extensive reshoots or effects that needed to be reworked.
 
Okay, I know everyone and their mother on the internet likes to think that they're box office experts, but in what universe would something akin to 700 or 800 million be considered bad or a disappointment? It's not like this film's budget ballooned due to some extensive reshoots or effects that needed to be reworked.
Bvs made 850 million and was considered a disappointment. Also black panther losing 500 million from the first I think would be a cause for concern
 
Some box office experts say it’s 2.5 the budget but that’s still argued over
The film is already halfway from $625 million.

Marvel Studios as a whole at least have a 2.3 multiplier (opening weekend worldwide). $330 million x 2.3 is $759 million. Worst case scenario it barely hit the $700 million mark.
 
Black panther 3 will absolutely happen no question. The budget you are probably right about. These last few mcu movies budgets have gone completely insane
Maybe there's also price inflation happening with movie making.

Wakanda Forever didn't look like a $250 million movie.

Talokan didn't look that impressive. Namor's room looked like a cheap TV set.
 
Bvs made 850 million and was considered a disappointment. Also black panther losing 500 million from the first I think would be a cause for concern
That's ridiculous-- no one on God's green earth is thinking this one has to perform equal or better to the original. The lead star passed away, the production was hit with Covid, Leticia was injured on set, overall audience for movies is at an all-time low--- all these factors were known going into this movie.

What MCU has done by having so many billion-dollar movies is make people think if u don't hit a billion then ur film wasn't a success and that's just not true. This movie is clearing 800 million no question about it and that is all the way in the black and profitable, and a billion isn't off the table at this point either,.

As for BvS-- yes that movie was also in the black and profitable the reason why people had the prevailing thought that it underperformed is that you had the coming together of the TWO BIGGEST COMICBOOK CHARACTERS IN THE WOLRD! Comicbook movies at that time were starting their peaks so you had all the ingredients for a billion dollar movie. When Ironman crosses a billion by himself, the expectation that Superman and Bataman along with Wonderwoman will easily clear that hurdle and that wasn't the case. So it was looked at as a disappoint based on what everyone thought could and would be-- but there's no way anyone can call it a box office failure-- disappointment yes, but not a failure by any definition of the word
 
That's ridiculous-- no one on God's green earth is thinking this one has to perform equal or better to the original. The lead star passed away, the production was hit with Covid, Leticia was injured on set, overall audience for movies is at an all-time low--- all these factors were known going into this movie.

What MCU has done by having so many billion-dollar movies is make people think if u don't hit a billion then ur film wasn't a success and that's just not true. This movie is clearing 800 million no question about it and that is all the way in the black and profitable, and a billion isn't off the table at this point either,.

As for BvS-- yes that movie was also in the black and profitable the reason why people had the prevailing thought that it underperformed is that you had the coming together of the TWO BIGGEST COMICBOOK CHARACTERS IN THE WOLRD! Comicbook movies at that time were starting their peaks so you had all the ingredients for a billion dollar movie. When Ironman crosses a billion by himself, the expectation that Superman and Bataman along with Wonderwoman will easily clear that hurdle and that wasn't the case. So it was looked at as a disappoint based on what everyone thought could and would be-- but there's no way anyone can call it a box office failure-- disappointment yes, but not a failure by any definition of the word
Aren’t we agreeing with each other that 800 million on that budget would be a disappointment?
 
that's not true-- I will search the article that gave the international break down. I didn't make the #s up it did a comparison of what was made and said 'like for like- it is currently outpacing the original black Panther market for market (they subtracted the markets where it's not playing right now for a fair comparison). So while it may make less if u figure in places it played in 2018 vs places it's playing now, it's making more comparing the spots it's currently playing now!

also think it'll take the lead in 3rd wk so 2 wks won't be enough for me to be convinced but if that's not the case by the 3rd wknd then it won't catch it in my opinion
Either I'm confused or you are. Who said anything about the original Black Panther? You made a comparison between Wakanda Forever and Multiverse of Madness, predicting that the former will make more money than the latter, while I made arguments against it, by stating clearly in my post that these two are the movies I was making parallels as well.

You want to prove the film is successful and be overly positive about it because you loved it. Good for you. I haven't seen it and don't particularly care how much money it makes. I was talking specifics. Multiverse had a much better start in the international box office. Wakanda can't compete that. Especially after opening pretty much in every major market that it was going to open. It's not a matter of opinion. It needs to have extraordinary legs in the US to cover the difference. Reviews and word to mouth have been good, but not that good.
 
Ok I take ur prediction and challenge it saying it will outgross Dr. strange both domestically and internationally even if it has a larger 2nd wk drop. It has positive word of mouth going for it; 94% verified score from fans on RT and an A CinemaScore that will, in my opinion make the difference so yeah I challenge ur prediction. After the 3rd wk (not 2nd) I'll bump this up for an update at that point we will have clearer picture as to which one of us will be correct. Think the first 2 wks it will lag behind but after the 3rd be ahead comparing like for like... we shall see!

haha i am excited. We shall see.
 
If it hits a billion that’s a success
900 million would be good
800 million disappointment
700 million bad
600 million disaster

im thinking it hits 900 million

let me simplify it: if it makes back its budget, that is ok

if it makes a profit (imo, of at least $100 million) it is a success.

I dont know the exact number for the budget and marketing but it has to at least double that to pull a profit iirc
 
Hmm well you have to know the production budget first. If it doubles its production budget then I think its a success. Not sure if they need to recoup Marketing costs through the boX office but lets assume its another $100 million

I'm guessing
$100 million - marketing
$200 million - production
For a total of 300 million

If they double that amount at the boX office alone I say its a success? More money would come from merchandise, product placement, sponsorships, digital download, renting, physical media, cable rights and streaming.


Agreed. $600-700 million minimum worldwide to be a certified success. I have zero doubt it will hit $600 million ww
 
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