Birds of Prey BoP Box Office Thread

[Limonade]

Warner Bros do invest in their talent and sometimes they strike lucky as we've seen with Bradley Cooper on A Star is Born or Todd Phillips with Joker but sometimes it doesn't as we've seen with Michael B Jordan with Just Mercy and now Margot Robbie with Birds of Prey. Even Clint Eastwood isn't immune to flops but when he hits, he hits big and WB are likely hoping their relationship with Margot will bear fruits, she's working on the Barbie movie with Greta Gerwig which has a lot of potential.

That make sense. This seemed likely with Zack Snyder too.

 

[Jonwo]

That make sense. This seemed likely with Zack Snyder too.

Once you had a couple of hits, a studio is more likely willing to suck up any flops. It's the same with Guy Ritchie, the Sherlock Holmes films being a success meant WB was willing to back both The Man from UNCLE and King Arthur which both did badly.

 

[Moncton]

Please WB for any future Harley film, enough with the background songs in the trailers. We get it, you can find songs, now let's put the emphasis on story and character

 

[Greenlite]

Monday Box Office: ‘Birds Of Prey’ Drops 72% For $35M Cume

The hope is that Warner Bros. and DC Films’ Birds of Prey has the domestic legs of a LEGO sequel and the overseas oomph of a Fifty Shades sequel.

Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) earned $2.2 million on Monday to bring its four-day domestic total to $35.21 million. That title change that you’ve seen at AMC and elsewhere is not an official title change. While it’s possible that Margot Robbie vehicle will get retitled “Harley Quinn: Birds of Prey” when it comes to Blu-ray, DVD and VOD, for now it’s just an SEO-friendly change for vendors and theaters. Yes, that’s probably the title Warner Bros. and DC Films should have gone with initially, but c’est la vie. That 72% drop from Sunday to Monday is right between the three LEGO movies and the two Fifty Shades sequels on this same weekend.

John Wick: Chapter 2 earned $2.6 million (-67% from an $8 million Sunday) after a $30.4 million opening weekend. The LEGO Batman Movie dropped a harsh 82% from Sunday after a $53 million launch. That makes sense as it was a kids flick, and the kids were back in school. Ditto The LEGO Movie 2 (-85.8% on Monday after a $34 million launch) and The LEGO Movie (-83% on Monday after a $69 million debut) on this same weekend in 2019 and 2014. Fifty Shades Freed dropped 62% on Sunday on this weekend in 2018 after a $38 million debut, while Fifty Shades Darker dropped 58% on its first Monday after opening with $46.6 million over its opening weekend.

In terms of expectations, Birds of Prey was expected to open better than, for example, Dark Phoenix and (because several folks asked me about this) Ford v Ferrari. While I hailed the $31 million launch of James Mangold’s $97 million-budgeted Ford v Ferrari as a likely win, that judgment was predicated on an A+ Cinemascore, a likely seat at the awards season table and the (correct) presumption that it would leg out to nearly four times its opening weekend. It ironically didn’t take off overseas, and its $222 million global cume isn’t quite what Fox and Disney wanted. Moreover, in this franchise-driven world, a $31 million launch for the Matt Damon/Christian Bale flick (and eventual Best Picture nominee) was considered a near-miracle.

Birds of Prey came in well below Warner Bros.’ cautious $45 million projections and the $50-$55 million guestimated by the tracking services. To the extent that the tracking was wrong, it’s just one of many, many instances over the last year where tracking painted far too rosy of a picture compared to what actually occurred. It’s not quite as blown of a call as Solo, which went on the tracking boards at a $170 million Fri-Mon Memorial Day debut in 2018 but ended up with $103 million for the holiday, but it still stings. Tracking estimates should never be treated as ironclad predictions, but the popularity of recent DC Films flicks and the strong pre-release reviews certainly offered cause for optimism.

I would argue that many of the “too high” pre-release guestimates are a result of the services (or the number crunchers) not necessarily taking into account the whole “Netflix Curve.” There is a huge swath of general moviegoers who, even five or six years ago, viewed theatrical moviegoing as a casual/impulsive entertainment option but now only go to theaters when there is something they specifically want to see in theaters. They otherwise either wait for streaming/VOD or just ignore the movie altogether while they binge something on Disney+, Netflix or Hulu. We’ll see if Sonic the Hedgehog delivers on the pre-release over/under $45 million Fri-Mon guestimates. If not, it may be less about the movie and more about the tracking.


Birds of Prey’s ultimate fate will be decided this coming weekend. If it holds akin to a LEGO sequel/spin-off (-39% for the weekend), then that’s good. It drops closer to a Fifty Shades sequel (-55%), that’s bad. If it drops like John Wick: Chapter 2 (-46%), well, that’s something of a draw. Broadly speaking, Warner Bros. is hoping that it has the domestic legs of a LEGO movie and the overseas oomph of a Fifty Shades sequel. And if its global cume really ends up closer to a Conjuring movie (around $320 million) than Dark Phoenix, Terminator: Dark Fate and Men In Black: International (around $260 million), then the DC flick will be a mild hit and a minor disappointment.

Don't have the overseas Mon/Tues numbers yet

I think just under 20M weekend DOM would be a good result?

 

[jmc]

Between BOP and GCS, I always felt GCS should have been the first film with HQ in a villain role, and now I can't see why they would push forward with any more solo HQ projects Even if SS2 does great, there will be an argument that it wasn't because of Margot's HQ, but due to other factors. The character needed better set up.

I don't understand why it was never the BoP and GCS in the one movie. To me, that is easiest slam dunk WB could have made. Tell me what DC fan wouldn't be in line for seeing Batgirl, Canary, Huntress, Harley, Ivy and Catwoman in the one movie?

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't understand why it was never the BoP and GCS in the one movie. To me, that is easiest slam dunk WB could have made. Tell me what DC fan wouldn't be in line for seeing Batgirl, Canary, Huntress, Harley, Ivy and Catwoman in the one movie?

That would have been exciting but given how this film performed, I'm glad they didnt use Ivy, Oracle and Catwoman. The first two could show up in a Batman movie sequel.

 

[jmc]

That would have been exciting but given how this film performed, I'm glad they didnt use Ivy, Oracle and Catwoman. The first two could show up in a Batman movie sequel.

It would have been an entirely different movie of course. But yeah, I'm kinda glad Barbara Gordon and the others were spared from this. Still, on paper you look at those two teams and you can't help but think what could have been.

 

[psylockolussus]

It would have been an entirely different movie of course. But yeah, I'm kinda glad Barbara Gordon and the others were spared from this. Still, on paper you look at those two teams and you can't help but think what could have been.

But there should be a separate movie for both groups if they have to like cross paths and co headline a film. I thought the formation of Bop in Harley Quinn was, not ideal and tacked in. If it were me, they should have made a Harley Quinn movie without Black Canary and the Huntress. If it did well, follow it up with GCS then, do a Bop movie then after those three movies, a crossover with the two girl groups.

 

[jmc]

But there should be a separate movie for both groups if they have to like cross paths and co headline a film. I thought the formation of Bop in Harley Quinn was, not ideal and tacked in. If it were me, they should have made a Harley Quinn movie without Black Canary and the Huntress. If it did well, follow it up with GCS then, do a Bop movie then after those three movies, a crossover with the two girl groups.

I disagree. I think you hit it out of the park immediately and base the franchise around women battling women, because even though BoP is at it's core Oracle, Canary and Huntress, there's been other characters who have played a role in the group over the years, Lady Blackhawk, Hawkgirl, Vixen, etc. Same with the Sirens, you can expand that group as well to encompass female villains of the wider DCU, Lady Shiva, Talia, Livewire, Killer Frost, etc. I see the logic in building up to a team up, but that's kinda what they were intending to do with this film, so as far as I'm concerned you swing for the fence immediately.

 

[-JKR-]

Finally an analysis which makes sense. And as I've been saying, the R-rating wasn't the problem, but they should have pushed that aspect more in trailers, by making Red band ones:

Harley Quinn has better SEO, so Birds of Prey is getting a new name

 

[Milk Tray Guy]

The title change appeared last night on ticket sites for major theaters. A Warner Bros. representative told The Verge that the name change is part of a “search expansion for ticket sites,” making it easier for people to find the movie.

You'd think that would have occurred to them before.

 

[Iceman]

I don't understand why it was never the BoP and GCS in the one movie. To me, that is easiest slam dunk WB could have made. Tell me what DC fan wouldn't be in line for seeing Batgirl, Canary, Huntress, Harley, Ivy and Catwoman in the one movie?

I’m sure most fans really want to see that. But they’ve struggled to introduce just the BoP here so it could have been hard for them to introduce everyone in the one film. BoP, GCS and then BoP vs GCS could have been great if executed well. It’s a strange one as Harley was so good but the films might have been better served with keeping Harley and BoP separate to begin with.

 

[Fincher]

But they’ve struggled to introduce just the BoP here so it could have been hard for them to introduce everyone in the one film.

That's why I was never keen on that vs. idea.

 

[godisawesome]

I’m sure most fans really want to see that. But they’ve struggled to introduce just the BoP here so it could have been hard for them to introduce everyone in the one film. BoP, GCS and then BoP vs GCS could have been great if executed well. It’s a strange one as Harley was so good but the films might have been better served with keeping Harley and BoP separate to begin with.

The way I see it is that Harley Quinn would have been better served herself, and have served better for, The Gotham City Sirens, while the BoP, as a concept, honestly work best when you use their original formula and basic setup.

The formula for how to have the Sirens work is actually kind of simple, but effective, and can work as a force multiplier, and I think it would have been improved by a Harley who goes full anti-hero for a film. She’s the crazy and zany one, Poison Ivy’s the more dour and serious one, and Catwoman’s the medium one who’s fun but sane... and all three can be used to play with each others’ characteristics a bit more naturally than the BoP could. Like, if you made it a story where Poison Ivy is trying to help her friend/crush Harley get out of the Joker’s control and they get caught up in a Catwoman vs Black Mask scenario, you can have Harley have her more dramatic moments drawn out by Ivy, Ivy can have her more joyous elements invigorated by her friend getting better, and have a running commentary on how Catwoman is viewed by the Gotham underworld.

But most importantly, because all three are villainesses, you don’t have to worry about moral ambivalence clouding their stories all that much - it’s a simple formula of them looking out for each other and having more virtuous motives than their enemies, while still being kinda evil themselves.

The BoP work better when they get to act more like a group of professional or professionally ambitioned heroes, and can hit the ground running with their more altruistic and banter-filled cop story. I think Black Canary got hurt here far more by trying to hammer her into a morally ambivalent story than by anything else, and honestly, if he’d spent more time with Huntress exchanging commentary, I think she would have been better.

I think they either should have gone with a Gotham Sirens movie... or gone with a Gotham Girls movie, where the BoP are initially opposed to and hunting down the Sirens, then Black Mask forces an alliance between them.

Ideally, I think a Harley/Ivy/Catwoman team making an alliance with a Huntress/Canary team (maybe with Oracle as their mission control and handy exposition helper) could have worked much better with the right ideas.

 

[writer0327]

I don't understand why it was never the BoP and GCS in the one movie. To me, that is easiest slam dunk WB could have made. Tell me what DC fan wouldn't be in line for seeing Batgirl, Canary, Huntress, Harley, Ivy and Catwoman in the one movie?

I would've been stoked, but I was also checking this one out. Hell, if you told me Harley, Cassandra Cain, Black Canary, and Huntress were in one film, I'd bet on all DC fans flocking to see it twice each on opening weekend. It all sounds great on paper.

 

[Greenlite]

I don't understand why it was never the BoP and GCS in the one movie. To me, that is easiest slam dunk WB could have made. Tell me what DC fan wouldn't be in line for seeing Batgirl, Canary, Huntress, Harley, Ivy and Catwoman in the one movie?

They tried that with BvS, Bat, Sup, WW etc, if it doesn't get great box office the narrative would be "why the F are they putting so many characters in one film, haven't they learnt from BvS? They should done one at a time and build towards an event film like Marvel does"

 

[Greenlite]

I’m sure most fans really want to see that. But they’ve struggled to introduce just the BoP here so it could have been hard for them to introduce everyone in the one film. BoP, GCS and then BoP vs GCS could have been great if executed well. It’s a strange one as Harley was so good but the films might have been better served with keeping Harley and BoP separate to begin with.

IMO the film is executed well thus the good receptions, just the opening is really soft, but legs will reflect the receptions in the 2nd weekend.

If they squeezed everyone in the first film of the "DC Girls" franchise and get decent money but fails critically, after SS, they're F'ed. The next film could be making JL type losses and kill off the brand.

 

[Erzengel]

I don't understand why it was never the BoP and GCS in the one movie. To me, that is easiest slam dunk WB could have made. Tell me what DC fan wouldn't be in line for seeing Batgirl, Canary, Huntress, Harley, Ivy and Catwoman in the one movie?

Because when you have one Studio who desperately was trying to retrieve their sold off properties to different Studios, WB and their ridiculous embargoes preventing characters from showing up in other media has been one of the most frustrating aspects for a company that has every single character under one umbrella.

 

[THE WOLF]

Fire whoever was in charge of marketing

 

[psylockolussus]

I disagree. I think you hit it out of the park immediately and base the franchise around women battling women, because even though BoP is at it's core Oracle, Canary and Huntress, there's been other characters who have played a role in the group over the years, Lady Blackhawk, Hawkgirl, Vixen, etc. Same with the Sirens, you can expand that group as well to encompass female villains of the wider DCU, Lady Shiva, Talia, Livewire, Killer Frost, etc. I see the logic in building up to a team up, but that's kinda what they were intending to do with this film, so as far as I'm concerned you swing for the fence immediately.

To me, it would just be introducing so many characters with Harley as the only one that appeared in a previous dceu movie. I felt like Black Canary and the Huntress were already underdeveloped in the movie despite having a small cast, and if they also had Catwoman, Poison Ivy and Oracle being introduced (plus villain/s that the both group would face),it would feel they are cramming everyone in 1 movie. Now if its a 3 hour movie, maybe they could work it out.

 

[Greenlite]

What’s unclear is how much of the lengthy title came from Warner Bros. and how much of it was a creative decision from director Cathy Yan. The studio has been criticized for swapping out names on directors in the past: director Doug Liman originally wanted to name his 2014 action movie starring Tom Cruise Live Die Repeat, but Warner Bros. went with Edge of Tomorrow instead.

I'm pretty sure the suits were not the one who came up with Birds of Prey: and the emancipation of one Harley Quinn

lol

 

[brandeezy89]

Honestly i'm surprised Blair Rich didn't get fired along with Sue Kroll back in 2018 considering she was 2nd in command.

 

[Fincher]

Gotham City Sirens vs. Birds of Prey doesn't sound any more marketable to me than Birds of Prey and the Whatever of Harley Quinn. General audiences don't know the Sirens as a group or the Birds of Prey, so it's overloading them rather than providing maximum appeal. Gotham City Sirens by itself can be marketed because the GA knows Gotham City and knows Catwoman, Harley Quinn, and Poison Ivy as supervillains of Batman/Gotham City.

I also think it's a bad idea to start crafting a story from the point of view of needing to include all six of these characters when there's no reason why you strictly speaking need to. If there isn't enough room, you can push some of them to the background, but it doesn't matter that they're there if they're just going to be sidelined. It's a different matter if you come up with a story and including someone follows organically from the story you're telling.

If it was going to be a vigilante(s) vs. the Sirens story, I'd just start with Huntress and then include Renee Montoya so she has someone to talk to who isn't a character who demands attention, her equivalent of Jim Gordon/Alfred. Have Renee already be feeding Huntress information. It's easy to establish and intuitive because we've been down this road with Batman, and it gives someone who isn't fully in the loop about Huntress so Helena can tell her things or she can ask her things. If you want to bring up Batman, just have Renee ask Huntress if she knows Batman. And you can fix the imbalance between her vs. three Sirens by having Black Mask or someone opposing them on the other side, which also solves the problem of the audience not really wanting to dislike the Sirens. There's someone worse out there, and it allows Huntress to accomplish something by defeating Black Mask while the Sirens can continue being the Sirens.

If you have enough room left in the movie, you could have someone mysterious named Oracle helping Huntress out, setting up Birds of Prey without putting pressure on the movie to also develop Barbara Gordon.

 

[Iceman]

The way I see it is that Harley Quinn would have been better served herself, and have served better for, The Gotham City Sirens, while the BoP, as a concept, honestly work best when you use their original formula and basic setup.

The formula for how to have the Sirens work is actually kind of simple, but effective, and can work as a force multiplier, and I think it would have been improved by a Harley who goes full anti-hero for a film. She’s the crazy and zany one, Poison Ivy’s the more dour and serious one, and Catwoman’s the medium one who’s fun but sane... and all three can be used to play with each others’ characteristics a bit more naturally than the BoP could. Like, if you made it a story where Poison Ivy is trying to help her friend/crush Harley get out of the Joker’s control and they get caught up in a Catwoman vs Black Mask scenario, you can have Harley have her more dramatic moments drawn out by Ivy, Ivy can have her more joyous elements invigorated by her friend getting better, and have a running commentary on how Catwoman is viewed by the Gotham underworld.

But most importantly, because all three are villainesses, you don’t have to worry about moral ambivalence clouding their stories all that much - it’s a simple formula of them looking out for each other and having more virtuous motives than their enemies, while still being kinda evil themselves.

The BoP work better when they get to act more like a group of professional or professionally ambitioned heroes, and can hit the ground running with their more altruistic and banter-filled cop story. I think Black Canary got hurt here far more by trying to hammer her into a morally ambivalent story than by anything else, and honestly, if he’d spent more time with Huntress exchanging commentary, I think she would have been better.

I think they either should have gone with a Gotham Sirens movie... or gone with a Gotham Girls movie, where the BoP are initially opposed to and hunting down the Sirens, then Black Mask forces an alliance between them.

Ideally, I think a Harley/Ivy/Catwoman team making an alliance with a Huntress/Canary team (maybe with Oracle as their mission control and handy exposition helper) could have worked much better with the right ideas.

A lot of things there, and I agreed with them all.

 

[Iceman]

IMO the film is executed well thus the good receptions, just the opening is really soft, but legs will reflect the receptions in the 2nd weekend.

If they squeezed everyone in the first film of the "DC Girls" franchise and get decent money but fails critically, after SS, they're F'ed. The next film could be making JL type losses and kill off the brand.

I loved the film. The BoP themselves though could have got a lot more and better material though. Harley took the thing into orbit, but I think she could have done that without the BoP in her own film, while a film fully focusing on the BoP could have served them best. So you could have 4 films, Harley, BoP, GCS and then BoP vs GCS with everyone thrown in.