Box Office Numbers (& Competition)

[Carp Man]

I'm going to see Ghost Rider for the 3rd time tonight with my Mom and Dad who have yet to see it. They just got back from out of the country and didn't even know it was out yet.

Cool.

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ 5:30 show out here in SoCal. This will be my last time in theatres I'm sure.

 

[Carp Man]

Fridays estimates are in. Updates below. $ 5,950,000.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Fantasy Mogul revised down to 18.5 million for the weekend.

UPDATED 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Ghost Rider' Wins with $18.5 mil with '23' a Distant 2nd; 'Reno' #4; 'Grace' #9; 'Astronaut' #10; 'Montaigne' Wins PTAby Steve Mason

February 24, 2007
After Hollywood enjoyed a very successful President’s Day weekend, with 6 movies scoring more than $10 million, there was hope that this weekend (2/23-25) would continue the roll. Instead, the holdovers suffered major drops in business and all 4 new major releases opened to disappointing business. Sony’s $110 million dollar comic book adaptation Ghost Rider will roll to a second consecutive weekend win, but Johnny Blaze is running on fumes. The Mark Steven Johnson-directed action flick generated an estimated $6 million on Friday, which should translate to a $18.5 million weekend, but that’s down a staggering 59%. Despite a 10-day cume of $77 million by Monday morning, there is no way that Ghost Rider will crack $100 million with business falling off so dramatically.

The Nic Cage vehicle will do enough to hold off the new Jim Carrey film The Number 23 (New Line). Coming into the weekend, the poorly-reviewed Joel Shumacher pic, the TV adaptation Reno 911!: Miami (Fox) and Buena Vista holdover Bridge To Terabithia all looked to score in the high teens, and the battle for 2nd place was expected to be close. Instead, New Line’s horror/thriller will score an estimated $14.9 million to finish 2nd for the weekend after a $5.3 million Friday. Since Bruce Almighty opened to a $67.9 million weekend back in 2003, Carrey has only had one movie top $15 million in its opening 3-days – Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events with a $30 million weekend. Based on my projections, The Number 23 should finish its domestic run with a cume of $25-$30 million, making it an unmitigated disaster.

Bridge To Terabithia, which received sparkling reviews and a better-than-expected President’s Day weekend opening, added an estimated $3.5 million on Friday, and, with a nice Saturday and Sunday matinee bounce, it will finish the weekend with approximately $13.5 million. That’s a steeper than expected 40% drop for the Disney/Walden Media adaptation of the Newbery Medal-winning children’s novel. Meanwhile, Fox’s Reno 911!: Miami, which is half-owned by Paramount, appears to be a major disappointment. Despite a strong showing in the late-week industry tracking, especially with Under 25’s, Reno managed only $4.0 million Friday, and with an estimated 3-day of $11 million, it’ll finish no better than 4th for the weekend. Rounding out the Top 5 is Norbit (Paramount), which will suffer a less-than-expected drop-off of 42% for a 3-day of $10.5 million after a $3.1 million Friday. By Monday morning, Eddie Murphy’s bawdy comedy will have banked just over $75 million.

The other 2 major new releases are officially box office misses. The nicely-reviewed Polish Brothers film The Astronaut Farmer (Warner Brothers) starring Billy Bob Thornton managed only an estimated $1.2 million on Friday, which should add up to a meager 3-day of $3.2 million. It was even worse for The Abandoned (After Dark), which apparently has an apropos title, with an estimated $275,000 on about 1,000 screens on Friday, and an expected weekend gross of just under $1 million.

One bright spot this weekend is Amazing Grace (IDP Films). Produced by Walden Media, a company whose mission is to create family-friendly and Christian-themed films, has succeeded with this period piece about the writing of the world’s most beloved hymn. Despite being on only 791 screens, Amazing Grace generated $1.45 million on Friday and is expected to crack the Top 10 for the weekend with an estimated $4.2 million. Walden Media has certainly had its misses like I Am David ($288,000 domestic), big budget Around the World in 80 Days ($24 million domestic), Hoot ($8.1 million) and How To Eat Fried Worms ($13 million domestic), but its resume is filled with a growing number of hits. Because of Winn-Dixie ($32.6 million) was a nice little mini hit, and Charlotte’s Web ($81.5 million domestic), Holes ($67.4 million), The Chronicles of Narnia ($291.7 million domestic) and Bridge To Terabithia (currently in release) are all solid or mega hits. They’ve got 12 more films in development or production including 2008’s Narnia sequel, so they are a company that can’t be underestimated.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $6 million
2. The Number 23 (New Line) - $5.3 million
3. Reno 911!: Miami (Fox) - $4 million
4. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $3.5 million
5. Norbit (Paramount) - $3.1 million
6. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $2.75 million
7. Breach (Universal) - $2 million
8. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls - $1.5 million
9. Amazing Grace (IDP Films) - $1.45 million
10. The Astronaut Farmer (Warner Bros) - $1.2 million
* The Abandoned (After Dark) - $275,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $18.5 million
2. The Number 23 (New Line) - $14.9 million
3. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $13.5 million
4. Reno 911!: Miami (Fox) - $11 million
5. Norbit (Paramount) - $10.5 million
6. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $8.8 million
7. Breach (Universal) - $6.3 million
8. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls - $4.7 million
9. Amazing Grace (IDP Films) - $4.2 million
10. The Astronaut Farmer (Warner Bros) - $3.2 million
*The Abandoned (After Dark Films) - $975,000

In the weekend PTA chase, the French film Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) should finish on top with a 3-day PTA of $8,660. The 5-time Cesar Award nominee raked in $2,960 per at 2 locations on Friday. New Yorker’s Bamako, an African drama set in Mali, should come in at just over $8,000 per at 2 locations and a 2nd place finish. French Canadian film Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance Atlantic) will score just under $8,000 for the weekend good for 3rd followed by The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) and Amazing Grace.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations - $2,960 PTA
2. Bamako (New Yorker) – 2 locations - $2,845 PTA
3. Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance Atlantis) – 27 locations - $2,769 PTA
4. The Number 23 (New Line) – 2,759 locations - $2,505 PTA
5. The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) – 49 locations - $2,216 PTA
6. Ghost Rider (Sony) – 3,620 locations - $1,998 PTA
7. Amazing Grace (IDP Films) – 791 locations - $1,836 PTA
8. Reno 911!: Miami (Fox) – 2,702 locations - $1,711 PTA
9. Breach (Universal) – 1,493 locations - $1,342 PTA
10. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) – 3,139 locations - $1,299 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations - $8,660 PTA
2. Bamako (New Yorker) – 2 locations - $8,024 PTA
3. Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance Atlantis) – 27 locations - $7,990 PTA
4. The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) – 49 locations - $6,316 PTA
5. Amazing Grace (IDP Films) – 791 locations - $5,309 PTA
6. The Number 23 (New Line) – 2,759 locations - $5,183 PTA
7. Ghost Rider (Sony) – 3,620 locations - $5,110 PTA
8. Breach (Universal) – 1,493 locations - $4,219 PTA
9. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) – 3,139 locations - $4,141 PTA
10. Reno 911!: Miami (Fox) – 2,702 locations - $4,071

Still well outpacing Daredevil overall which made 102 million. We passed Norbit.

 

[Carp Man]

18.5. My lowend prediction. I thought it could make 20.

 

[GL's Light]

Oh c'mon that would mean it's gonna make only 5 million on Sat and 5 on Sunday. We all know that's not gonna happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see 9-10 million on Saturday. I'll say 9...and 5 on Sunday.

Like I said, 2.8 is the low end of the scale. Hellboy got a 2.8 multiplier on its second weekend as a result of a small Saturday increase (+ 8.32%) followed by a regular-sized Sunday decrease (- 33.47%).

The most common multiplier in the range is around 3.1 and that's what I expect GR to get. That would result from a typical increase of 30-40% on Saturday followed by a drop of 30-40% on Sunday.

To get $ 9-10 million on Saturday would require an increase of 50-60%, which is a lot higher than the second weekend norm for the genre.

 

[Advanced Dark]

It still can we'll see but the whole weekend was a bit of a letdown for every single film. Not one made as much as expected. Many flopped hard. Ghost Rider had a weekend in line with Daredevil's 2nd weekend.

 

[Carp Man]

Fantasy Mogul revised down to 18.5 million for the weekend.



Still well outpacing Daredevil overall which made 102 million.

I agree with him. 59% drop, being the only thing really out there. That's a disapointment. It's beter then DD. 100 million is going to be a strugle. It would need about 24 million after this weekend to crack 100 domestic.

 

[Advanced Dark]

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/02/updated_3day_es_1.html#more

Forgot the link to the above estimate update. Maybe Sony will buy a few million worth of tickets this weekend and give them away for charity to raise that up a bit and get a write off.

 

[Carp Man]

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/02/updated_3day_es_1.html#more

Forgot the link to the above estimate update. Maybe Sony will buy a few million worth of tickets this weekend and give them away for charity to raise that up a bit and get a write off.

LOL. You wish.

 

[Upset Spideyfan]

I said it before and I'll say it again, this movie was critic proof and was going to make a good opening weekend no matter what (Hell, I saw it knowing about the poor reviews).

The low second weekend is evidence that people saw it and went "meh"

 

[Arkady Rossovich]

You're a troll Jourmugand. Stop sending me private messages asking me if this movie is a failure every day. I thought you were serious at first but it's clear you're just trolling. I could see asking once but you keep asking over and over and over. You're on my ignore list go away.

How am i a troll?Im just asking questions.It seems like your the troll for repling to this thread non stop and trying to save this movie when it will end up being average.Im not the only one saying this,you just need to think realistically.

 

[The Kid]

What really kicked me in the balls about this was that critics and fanboyz expected a movie called GHOST RIDER to be some bloated epic scale film of biblical proportions.

Think about it. Ghost. Rider.

That's a Saturday Matinee Serial.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Just got back from my 3rd and likely my last theatrical viewing...I enjoyed it just as much. I also kept an eye out for some supposed inconsistencies which it turns out did not exist. When Nic parks his bike in front of the news van...when the van leaves all we see it do is back up...it does not go forward. Also at the end remember Nic takes control of the demon with in him earlier on and also he's on hollowed ground so Mephistopholes can only scream and go away.

Another thing that I realized is Blackheart might come back. Think about it. He never had a soul to begin with. So when he filled himself up with the souls and GR gave him the stare...it seemingly worked on him and seared the souls in him. However he COULD do without them. We'll see how that pans out. There were a few other issues I had the first time around that I didn't catch the last time but it turns out they were not issues at all. The movie kind of zips ahead at times that might leave some people (including myself) behind on the first viewing.

Lastly, the theatre was packed at 5:30 PM showing and there were people lined up for the next showing. The 18.5 million was early speculation so we might be surprised yet again. We'll see.

 

[Advanced Dark]

I said it before and I'll say it again, this movie was critic proof and was going to make a good opening weekend no matter what (Hell, I saw it knowing about the poor reviews).

The low second weekend is evidence that people saw it and went "meh"

How is 18-20 million low for a second weekend? You mean the apparent yet to be confirmed 59% drop. I think it's more of a case of a lot of repeat viewing over the 4 day holiday weekend that made Ghost Rider earn a record breaking 52 million. I saw it twice over those 4 days as had alot of other people. I think the huge fan rush disipated this weekend but it still made 20 million.

Another reason why your statement is ridiculous is every other movie dropped more than expected and dissapointed including every new release. Even Tarabithia dropped more than expected.

February 24, 2007
After Hollywood enjoyed a very successful President’s Day weekend, with 6 movies scoring more than $10 million, there was hope that this weekend (2/23-25) would continue the roll. Instead, the holdovers suffered major drops in business and all 4 new major releases opened to disappointing business. -Fantasy Moguls

The only movie that made more than expected this weekend was Norbitt.

Put things in perspective. How is a 20 million dollar second weekend low? LOL

 

[YJ1]

^ 5:30 show out here in SoCal. This will be my last time in theatres I'm sure.

As long as Ghost Rider is at the theatre, I'm PAYING to see GR but simply walking in to whatever showing of another film that I want to see. My theatre is large enough to do this with ease. (Shhhhhhhhhhh ... don't tell anyone.) I feel better when my money goes to a Marvel film and the theatre owners don't care. They get their cut regardless.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Originally Posted by Advanced Dark
Oh c'mon that would mean it's gonna make only 5 million on Sat and 5 on Sunday. We all know that's not gonna happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see 9-10 million on Saturday. I'll say 9...and 5 on Sunday.

Quote=GL's Light;11262615]Like I said, 2.8 is the low end of the scale. Hellboy got a 2.8 multiplier on its second weekend as a result of a small Saturday increase (+ 8.32%) followed by a regular-sized Sunday decrease (- 33.47%).

The most common multiplier in the range is around 3.1 and that's what I expect GR to get. That would result from a typical increase of 30-40% on Saturday followed by a drop of 30-40% on Sunday.

To get $ 9-10 million on Saturday would require an increase of 50-60%, which is a lot higher than the second weekend norm for the genre.

HA I told you. LOL

Estimates for Saturday, February, 24, 2007 TitleDailyTotal

Ghost Rider 9.1 74.0
Bridge to Terabithia 6.44 2.5
Number 23, The 5.8 11.6
Norbit 4.4 72.2
Reno 911!: Miami 3.9 8.0




So it's made 15 million Fri & Sat, and likely another 4.5-5 million on Sun even with the Oscars.

19.5-20 million for weekend.

 

[GL's Light]

$ 9.1 mil is a very good Saturday. That's an increase above the norm that one usually expects from the genre at this time of year. So, good going for GR there. With that Saturday number, the Sunday number should lift the 3-day weekend to above $ 20 mil - maybe $ 21 mil. So the drop could be around 54%. It's on track now for a good second weekend hold.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Estimates now 19.7 million:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117960108.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

'Ghost' story still on top
'Rider' beats box office newcomers
By IAN MOHR
'Ghost Rider' still on top.

On Oscar weekend, Sony's "Ghost Rider" ran roughshod over the B.O., taking in $19.7 million off 3,620. Pic's cume has hit $78.6 million over two frames in release.
"Ghost" easily beat out all newcomers over the frame, including New Line's "The Number 23."

Jim Carrey starrer scared up $15.1 million, off 2,759, for a per location average of $5,476.

Disney and Walden's holdover "Bridge to Terabithia" landed in third in its second frame, slipping just 40%. Fox's new opener "Reno 911: Miami" swerved into No. 4 in its debut.

Pic corralled $10.4 million off 2,702.

In other new openings, Warner Bros.' "The Farmer Astronaut" landed in ninth place in its debut. Pic performed under what the studio expected, reeling in $4.5 million off 2,155.

Samuel Goldwyn and Roadside Attractions' indie release "Amazing Grace" graced the top ten, coming up just behind "Farmer" with $4.3 million off only 791 screens for a per engagement average of $5,442.

 

[GL's Light]

So it performed better than I thought on Saturday but must have dropped quite steeply on Sunday (perhaps in part because of the Oscars) and ended up with a second weekend performance at the top of the range that I discussed before - basically an internal multiplier of around 3.2/3.3 (depending on how the actuals break down) and a drop of around 56-57%.

It's still tracking quite closely with Daredevil's trajectory and is likely to end up at around $ 115 million domestic.

 

[Kasady]

Great news. How'd it do overseas?

 

[Advanced Dark]

Actuals will be over 20 GL.

Overseas it's at 21.5 up to last Wed. Factoring in another 2 million for Thur. 23.5 and probably another 18+ million for the weekend since it opened in some big markets like Germany & France.

Ghost Rider is WELL over 100 million worldwide. Well over.

 

[Advanced Dark]

So it performed better than I thought on Saturday but must have dropped quite steeply on Sunday (perhaps in part because of the Oscars) and ended up with a second weekend performance at the top of the range that I discussed before - basically an internal multiplier of around 3.2/3.3 (depending on how the actuals break down) and a drop of around 56-57%.

It's still tracking quite closely with Daredevil's trajectory and is likely to end up at around $ 115 million domestic.

I never doubted your top range I just thought your low range was exaggerated. There was no competition similar to GR that gets people excited to go to the movies. bad reviews or not it was due for a big increase on Sat. I think the oscars will have an effect but still expect 5 million on Sunday. And I'm in agreement on your domestic gross of 115 million. I figured 115-120 max. I thought if we held on a bit stronger this weekend we might get close to 130 but 120 seems to be the max.

 

[ultimatefan]

A drop around 56%, not terrible, not great, it should make more than 100m, less than 120. It´s alright. With the poor performance of The Number 23, could have done a little better, though. Bridge to Terabithia had very good legs.

 

[superion]

Actuals will be over 20 GL.

Overseas it's at 21.5 up to last Wed. Factoring in another 2 million for Thur. 23.5 and probably another 18+ million for the weekend since it opened in some big markets like Germany & France.

Ghost Rider is WELL over 100 million worldwide. Well over.

It's going to need at least $250 million worldwide to be considered a success with its $120 million budet. Making $125 million domestic seems a long shot right now. To early to see how the foreign box office will do and if it can cover any short falls in the domestic box office. This is where DD failed. It made less than $80 million overseas.