Box Office Numbers (& Competition)

[Advanced Dark]

If that was a response to my quote Advanced Dark I only said that because after a week of nothing but snow storms I am sure people would have better things to do then see a movie. You know like go outside get some fresh air etc

They can get fresh air when the walk outside to get in the car to go to the movies. I'm assuming it's kind of cold still where it snowed. So I'd rather be in where it's warm like a theatre myself.

 

[GL's Light]

If SBD's estimate is the more accurate then that would put a $ 43 million 3-day weekend within much easier reach.

 

[Heretic]

The word of mouth on daredevil was kinda iffy...

The word of mouth on this movie is atrocious.

Myscreening was sold out...but people were flocking for the doors long before it was over...I predict a QUICK decline in sales.

 

[Movies205]

Showbiz Data says 15.9 million.

Daily Grosses [more]


Estimates for Friday, February, 16, 2007
Title Daily Total
Ghost Rider 15.9 15.9
Bridge to Terabithia 6.3 6.3
Norbit 4.5 46.6
Music and Lyrics 4.1 9.7
Daddy's Little Girls 3.0 8.7

SBD is not more reliable, Box Office Mojo is, trust me, I follow the box office every week, if it is, I'll be really surprised.

 

[AssMan]

They can get fresh air when the walk outside to get in the car to go to the movies. I'm assuming it's kind of cold still where it snowed. So I'd rather be in where it's warm like a theatre myself.

Everyones different & I just think not everyone will rush off to the movie theaters after a full week of snow storms & there are countless places to go to to be warm & enjoy yourself with friends & stuff & be loud & talk etc.

 

[Movies205]

Everyones different & I just think not everyone will rush off to the movie theaters after a full week of snow storms & there are countless places to go to to be warm & enjoy yourself with friends & stuff.

I doubt it, looking at the numbers, anyone who wanted to see this movie did, these movies tend to be very front loaded, hence why the percentage is higher for the opening weekend factoring into the over-all domestic total.

 

[Excel]

i forsee 110-115 million total; theres just simply nothing in its way.

 

[AssMan]

I doubt it, looking at the numbers, anyone who wanted to see this movie did, these movies tend to be very front loaded, hence why the percentage is higher for the opening weekend factoring into the over-all domestic total.

I am waiting to see until NEXT WEEKEND to get a good idea with how the box office will be

 

[Movies205]

i forsee 110-115 million total; theres just simply nothing in its way.

Next Week: Number 23 and Reno 911- The darkness of Number 23 is going take away some of the crowd, as well as Reno 911 taking the college crowd

Week After that: Zodiac- Another Dark Movie that looks really good and Black Snake Moan- will take the geek crowd.

And by that time GR legs will have given way...

 

[GL's Light]

If it follows the typical trends of the comic book genre for this time of year you're looking at around $ 100 million domestic and $ 180-190 million worldwide. That would be a return of between 1.5 and 1.58 on its production budget, which would be a shaky result.

 

[Movies205]

If it follows the typical trends of the comic book genre for this time of year you're looking at around $ 100 million domestic and $ 180-190 million worldwide. That would be a return of between 1.5 and 1.58 on its production budget, which would be a shaky result.

Let's say for a hypothetical sake, this movie makes a 200 mil worldwide... The general rule is the studio makes about half of that, so they got a 100 mil return on it. There still 20 mil to factor in... Well with DVD and TV Rights they'll end up making some decent cash on it. And in the end for a mediocre movie, I think this is all Sony is expecting, and I wouldn't be surprised if a sequal is green-lit or not, since by the time it's on DVD it'll have developed a following making a sequal easier to put out. Because realistically 200 mil worldwide for GR is really good.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

I believe 100-120 Mill Domestic

60-80 Worldwide


Total cinema gross of anywhere between 160 Mill - 200 Mill.

With DVD and Rental sales probably around 10-20 Mill. Toys and other merchandise another few mils...

100 Million + profit would do Sony good.

 

[GL's Light]

Let's say for a hypothetical sake, this movie makes a 200 mil worldwide... The general rule is the studio makes about half of that, so they got a 100 mil return on it. There still 20 mil to factor in... Well with DVD and TV Rights they'll end up making some decent cash on it. And in the end for a mediocre movie, I think this is all Sony is expecting, and I wouldn't be surprised if a sequal is green-lit or not, since by the time it's on DVD it'll have developed a following making a sequal easier to put out. Because realistically 200 mil worldwide for GR is really good.

Sure, but don't forget that they also have to cover the costs of marketing and distibution. The film certainly won't lose money. It'll turn a profit after ancillaries. But the level of return usually needed for a sequel to get greenlit is around 2.4 or 2.5 (although there are notable exceptions, such as Hellboy 2 and perhaps, if it gets made, Superman Retruns 2).

A Ghost Rider sequel with Nic Cage would almost certainly be prohibitively expensive given the likely level of return on investment from this film. There may still be another Ghost Rider film, but I think it could well feature a new GR played by a younger (and much cheaper) actor so that they can bring the budget down.

 

[Advanced Dark]

The drop off next weekend will appear larger than it really is because this weekend has a Holiday monday after it like what happened to X3. So when there's a 65% drop off it's really not that bad considering next weekends Sunday will be followed by a work day.

 

[zanos]

I predicated about 70-80 million in the boxoffice thread before the film was released and I'm sticking with that.

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ LOL It'll have that by the end of next weekend.

 

[The Guardian]

15+ TO START IS PRETTY GOOD!!!

 

[Movies205]

Sure, but don't forget that they also have to cover the costs of marketing and distibution. The film certainly won't lose money. It'll turn a profit after ancillaries. But the level of return usually needed for a sequel to get greenlit is around 2.4 or 2.5 (although there are notable exceptions, such as Hellboy 2 and perhaps, if it gets made, Superman Retruns 2).

A Ghost Rider sequel with Nic Cage would almost certainly be prohibitively expensive given the likely level of return on investment from this film. There may still be another Ghost Rider film, but I think it could well feature a new GR played by a younger (and much cheaper) actor so that they can bring the budget down.

Very true, but you know I've said it once these dark properties go the completely the wrong way. DAredevil the exception, there really no way else you can go about it and maybe even GR to an extent, but definately Constantine... These movies could be awesome if you focus on what make them great, which is the characters, the dark world which they walk the line of good and evil, this is why Blade 1 was awesome, why Blade 2 was great... That was so successful because it didn't get carried away with budget and action, but focused on what a lower-budget brings, the higher budget you get the harder it is to keep that atmosphere because you have all this ridiculous **** happening.

 

[bingy13]

I'm thinking that this won't make it over 80-90 million.

 

[IronMan_2005]

15.9 Alright!!

I'll be seeing it tonight with my bros. and tomorrow with my daughter

 

[Tempest19]

COOL... let's hope this keeps up, I want to go "back to hell" again.

 

[Carp Man]

15 Mil on Friday....

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Calculating based off the multipliers of Daredevil and Constantine, this will most likely make 40 mil by the time the weekend is out, all in all, a success for ghost rider. Which according to my projections means that the movie will barely crack 100 mil, tapering off at about 105 mil.

40 to 50 this weekend would indeed be a suscess, and seeing how the 2nd movie on the list made 6.1 million, that bodes well. This movie is not going to make huge #'s, and anyone who expected it to is living in fantasy land. If this makes 250 WW, Fox, and Marvel will be very pleased. This movie is a tune up for what comes next, Spider-Man 3, and FF 2.

 

[Saved]

I want to see it again. It was way better than Hulk, Daredevil, Elektra, and Superman Returns. I'd say combine their ticket sales, and you got ghost rider. I'd rather pay to watch Ghost Rider, than see all the other 4 I mentioned for free.

 

[Selene]

SBD is not more reliable, Box Office Mojo is, trust me, I follow the box office every week, if it is, I'll be really surprised.

Box Office Mojo is the movie bible next to the IMDB. I agree the most accurate info will be located there.

 

[Mr. Socko]

I agree with all except Daredevil. Yes, it was better than DD, but I wouldn't say "way better"(I'm speaking of the DC).

Usually, a studio wants to make profit on a domestic level before going into a sequel.