Box Office Numbers (& Competition)

[Advanced Dark]

300 Tracking around 50 million opening. That's massive for an R rated film but I doubt it'll cross 45 million.

<H2 class=entry-header>WEEKEND TRACKING: '300' to Open with Nearly $50 Million

by Steve Mason

March 8, 2007

The question this weekend at America’s multiplexes is not, “Which movie will be #1?” Instead, the industry is asking, “How high will 300 go? If you read FantasyMoguls.com regularly, you know that I love 300 (Warner Bros). Here are some quotes from my own review, which went online last weekend:

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“Frank Miller’s graphic comic comes to life on the big screen thanks to director Zack Snyder’s directorial virtuosity, and the result is the wildest, bloodiest, most visually striking and flat-out fun movie-going experience in ages.”
“The over-the-top histrionics match the hyper-stylized look and the psychotically supercharged mayhem, and it all adds up to one of the most kick-ass two hours of wild fun in movie history.”
“In his Henry V moment (like “We few, we happy few” in the St. Crispin’s Day speech), Leonidas announces, “Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.” You may not remember Zack Snyder’s 300 “for all time,” but you won’t forget it any time soon.
In fact, I now put 300 on my list of the Best War Movies and the Best Comic Book Movies of all time.
TOP 10 WAR MOVIES OF ALL TIME
10. The Deer Hunter
9. The Guns of Navarone
8. M*A*S*H
7. Three Kings
6. Glory
5. 300
4. Braveheart
3. Full Metal Jacket
2. Apocalypse Now
1. Bridge On the River Kwai
If you’ve never seen Bridge On the River Kwai, put it in the Netflix queue right away. I’ve never been a big fan of Platoon or Saving Private Ryan, but a lot of you would probably have them on this list. Glory is underrated and so is Three Kings. And yes, 300 is now in my all-time Top 5.
TOP 10 COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS OF ALL TIME
10. American Splendor
9. Blade (only the first one)
8. The Crow
7. Batman Returns (the one with Michael Keaton and Michelle Pfeiffer as Catwoman)
6. Sin City
5. V For Vendetta
4. Spider-Man (both of them)
3. X-Men (all 3 of them)
2. 300
1. Batman Begins (Christopher Nolan version with Christian Bale)
American Splendor is based on the comic and Paul Giamatti is a funny sob. Blade and The Crow are both cool. The Tim Burton Batman Returns was really good before that version of the series went south (Batman & Robin? What a joke). V for Vendetta is very underrated, Batman Begins is a classic and, yes, 300 is that good.
This is a case where the movie is as good as the marketing hype. Sometimes, average or even lame movies get fantastic marketing, and they score big – like Ghost Rider and Wild Hogs. Other times, great movies don’t quite get sold right – like Zodiac. Here’s a case where the planets have aligned. It’s a one-of-a-kind original with a killer look, hip source material, Internet hype, great TV, outdoor and print ads and, best of all, no other distributor will be opening a wide release against it.
As has been discussed on our message boards here at FantasyMoguls.com, the big strike against 300 is its completely deserved R-rating. Here are the all-time Top 6 opening weekends for R-rated pictures:
1. The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7 million
2. Passion of the Christ - $83.8 million
3. Hannibal - $58 million
4. 8 Mile - $51.2 million
5. The Matrix Revolutions - $48.4 million
6. American Pie 2 - $45.1 million
I’m of the opinion that 300 will finish between $45-$50 million for the 3-day – but it can go higher. Warner Bros execs are trying to keep expectations low and are telling people they’ll be thrilled with $28-$30 million, but nobody else in town has a projection that doesn’t start with a 4. It won’t beat Ice Age 2: The Meltdown’s $68 million as the biggest March opening ever, but it will likely be the 2nd biggest March opening in history ahead of the first Ice Age ($46.3 million).
Here’s how I see the Top 10 finishing this weekend (3/9-11):
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $48.3
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $20.6 million
3. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $6.3 million
4. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $5.3 million
5. Norbit (Paramount) - $3.1 million
6. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $2.9 million
7. The Number 23 (New Line) - $2.8 million
8. Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) - $2.6 million
9. Breach (Universal) - $2 million
10. Amazing Grace (IDP Films) - $1.9 million

</H2>
http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/03/weekend_trackin_1.html

 

[Carp Man]

Thursdays #'s are in. Update below. $ 617,326. Down 41 % from last Thursday. GR looses 261 theaters. Down to 3,347. Week by week totals :

Week 1 $ 58,690,097
Week 2 $ 24,386,602
Week 3 $ 14,084,307

 

[Advanced Dark]

Ghost Rider might even get a boost this weekend thanks to sold out 300 showings.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Wow HUGE weekend at the box office:

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/03/exclusive_early_1.html

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES: '300' with $60 million; Spartan War Epic 3rd Biggest R-Rated Opening and 2nd Biggest March Opening; 'Hogs' Still Strong with $27.8 million
by Steve Mason
March 10, 2007
The weekend belongs to Zack Snyder&#8217;s 300 (Warner Bros), which is fulfilling the months of internet buzz, marketing hype and fanboy anticipation with a $25.5 million Friday and an estimated 3-day gross of $60 million.

The bloody, violent, over-the-top, R-rated war picture adapted from Frank Miller&#8217;s graphic novel got an early start with 12:01am screenings across the country including IMAX locations. My sources have indicated that 300 broke the midnight IMAX box office record set by last Summer&#8217;s Superman Returns, another Warner Bros. release. 300 will almost certainly smash the opening weekend IMAX record of $5 million set by Superman Returns. Batman Begins, also from Warner Bros., is the 3rd best IMAX opening weekend with $3.1 million.

If my numbers for this Spartan war epic hold, this will be the all-time 3rd best opening weekend for an R-rated movie:

1. The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7 million
2. Passion of the Christ - $83.8 million
3. 300 - $60 million
4. Hannibal - $58 million
5. 8 Mile - $51.2 million

By Monday morning, 300 will also be the all-time 2nd best opening weekend for a March release trailing only Ice Age 2: The Meltdown:

1. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $68 million
2. 300 - $60 million
3. Ice Age - $46.3 million

The poorly-reviewed Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) will take the #2 spot with $7.5 million on Friday. That should translate to a far better-than-expected 3-day of $27.8 million. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) added $1.7 million to kick-off the weekend and will have banked another $7.4 million by Monday morning good for 3rd. Ghost Rider (Sony) will finish 4th with an estimated $7 million after the Nicolas Cage vehicle picked up $1.9 million Friday. Meanwhile, David Fincher&#8217;s Zodiac (Paramount) continues to disappoint with $1.9 million Friday and an estimated $6.6 million for the weekend, which is enough to round out the Top 5.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $25.5 million
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $ 7.5 million
3. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $2 million
4. Zodiac (Paramount) 1.9
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1.7
6. Norbit (Paramount) - $1.3 million
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $1.2 million
8. The Number 23 (New Line) - $1.1 million
9. Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) - $1 million
10. Breach (Universal) - $700,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $60 million
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $27.8 million
3. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $7.4 million
4. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $7 million
5. Zodiac (Paramount) - $6.6 million
6. Norbit (Paramount) &#8211; $4.1 million
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $3.1 million
8. The Number 23 (New Line) - $3 million
9. Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) - $2.6 million
10. Breach (Universal) - $1.6 million

Exactly like I thought. 25-30 for Friday and 60 million for the weekend. My estimate:

http://www.superherohype.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11339262&postcount=37

 

[Carp Man]

I knew it would be huge. Really looked good. Shame Fox could not get FF 2 clip, or trailer on there with it. We still have to wait for SM 3.

 

[Advanced Dark]

It's good for the industry to see 300 doing so well. Goes to show a bloody R rated film if done right can make huge money too.

 

[GL's Light]

Holy moley! I thought 300 would do well, but I wasn't anticipating an opening weekend of over $ 60 million.

This should pave the way for Zach Snyder to get a greenlight for Watchmen with a good-sized budget.

 

[Carp Man]

Holy moley! I thought 300 would do well, but I wasn't anticipating an opening weekend of over $ 60 million.

This should pave the way for Zach Snyder to get a greenlight for Watchmen with a good-sized budget.

Let us temper a bit. It had midnight showings, plus it is on IMAX, and we saw 1st hand what IMAX can mean to a movie. See SR. Still it is great to see.

 

[GL's Light]

Let us temper a bit. It had midnight showings, plus it is on IMAX, and we saw 1st hand what IMAX can mean to a movie. See SR. Still it is great to see.

Nah, this doesn't need any qualifiers. Even taking the midnight screenings and IMAX into account, this is a great opening - it'll probably set a new March record. A month ago, most expectations were that it'd do Sin City-type numbers. Instead its opening weekend will make almost as much as Sin City did in its entire domestic run.

Also, bear in mind that 300's production budget is only $ 60 million. It could well do three times its budget in domestic box office alone. Massive hit here, with no qualifications whatsoever.

 

[Carp Man]

Fridays estimate is in. Update below. $ 1,915,000. Down 37.6 % from last Friday.

 

[Carp Man]

Nah, this doesn't need any qualifiers. Even taking the midnight screenings and IMAX into account, this is a great opening - it'll probably set a new March record. A month ago, most expectations were that it'd do Sin City-type numbers. Instead its opening weekend will make almost as much as Sin City did in its entire domestic run.

Also, bear in mind that 300's production budget is only $ 60 million. It could well do three times its budget in domestic box office alone. Massive hit here, with no qualifications whatsoever.

This does not surprise me. It appears to be a well done movie. It looked sharp. I thought 40 to 50. 60 opening weekend, 50 % drop next weekend, makes 90 million, plus Monday thru Thusday. Will easily top 100 million its 1st 10 days. And that for a March movie would be outstanding. Just like GR has perpormed well in a typicaly slow month. This bodes well for the rest of the year. And the rest of the year starts with SM 3. What a year this will be. SM 3, FF 2, Transformers, TMNT, POTC 3, Harry Potter, and the hits keep on comming. Big business this year for the movie studios. This may well be a record breaking year for the whole movie industry.

 

[superion]

GR looks like its running out of gas a bit to early overseas. It will probably make about $120 million domestic but it may not make it to even $100 million overseas with its weak Japan opening. A sequel is going to be iffy at best.

 

[Advanced Dark]

based on what? IT'S BEEN #1 three weeks in a row overseas. still 100-110 overseas was expected. Nothing is running out early. It's performing weaker than expected in some markets and much stronger than expected in others. Update tomorrow.

 

[fire>everything]

Sounds to me like it's had a pretty solid run, and is still motorin' along.

 

[superion]

based on what? IT'S BEEN #1 three weeks in a row overseas. still 100-110 overseas was expected. Nothing is running out early. It's performing weaker than expected in some markets and much stronger than expected in others. Update tomorrow.

Constantine another supernatural theme superhero movie made over $150 million overseas. I was expecting something in that range from GR especially with Nic Cage in the movie. Big stars tend to help movies draw bigger audiences overeseas then here thats why they get paid the big bucks.

In any event with its $120 million budget I was hoping for at least $250 million total worldwide. Constantine made $231 million worldwide I want GR to at least beat that number but it looks like it may not even surpass that.

 

[Advanced Dark]

should do 120-125 domestic & 90-110 overseas.

 

[Upset Spideyfan]

Just about what I figured

It'll probably get across 100 million, but not by much.

 

[Advanced Dark]

box office update

http://www.fantasymoguls.com/

SATURDAY PM 3-DAY ESTIMATES UPDATE: '300' w/$24.5 million on Saturday; New 3-Day Estimate is $66 milion
by Steve Mason
March 10, 2007
SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE – It looks like 300 (Warner Bros) is suffering a Saturday drop-off with many of the rabid fanboys having rushed out to see the movie Thursday midnight and Friday. After a $27.8 million opening day, the Zack Miller-directed Spartan war epic will deliver an estimated $24.5 million on Saturday. By the end of the weekend, 300 will have banked an estimated $66 million. That’s far above industry expectations as the $60 million adaptation of the Frank Miller graphic novel enjoys the all-time 3rd biggest 3-day opening for an R-rated film, trailing only The Matrix Reloaded ($91.7 million) and The Passion of the Christ ($83.8 million). By Monday morning, 300 will be at least the all-time 2nd biggest March opening, likely falling just short of Ice Age 2: The Meltdown ($68 million), but it’s going to be very close. Either way, the gang at Warner Bros is thrilled, especially after the studio's rough 2006, which included Poseidon, The Ant Bully, Superman Returns and Lady in the Water.

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE - The weekend belongs to Zack Snyder’s 300 (Warner Bros), which has fulfilled the months of internet buzz, marketing hype and fanboy anticipation with a $27.7 million Friday and an estimated 3-day gross of at least $60 million. I’m told that if these numbers need to be revised by Monday, they will go north.

The bloody, violent, over-the-top, R-rated war picture adapted from Frank Miller’s graphic novel got an early start with Thursday night 12:01am screenings across the country including 57 IMAX locations. My sources tell me that all of those IMAX screenings sold out, breaking the midnight IMAX box office record set by last Summer’s Superman Returns, another Warner Bros. release. 300 will almost certainly smash the opening weekend IMAX record of $5 million set by Superman Returns. Batman Begins, also from Warner Bros., is the 3rd best IMAX opening weekend with $3.1 million.

If my numbers for this Spartan war epic hold, 300 will be the all-time 3rd best opening weekend for an R-rated movie:

1. The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7 million
2. Passion of the Christ - $83.8 million
3. 300 - $60 million
4. Hannibal - $58 million
5. 8 Mile - $51.2 million

By Monday morning, 300 will also be, at least, the all-time 2nd best opening weekend for a March release trailing only Ice Age 2: The Meltdown:

1. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $68 million
2. 300 - $60 million
3. Ice Age - $46.3 million

It’s still possible that this sword and sandals epic may exceed Ice Age 2 by Monday morning.

300 probably helped the poorly-reviewed Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) to a far better-than-expected $7.5 million Friday which should translate to a 3-day of $27.8 million. Because many moviegoers were sold out of 300, they were forced to see another movie, and Hogs was the beneficiary. Also, teen boys too young to be admitted to 300 without a parent may be buying tickets to see the PG-13 Travolta/Lawrence/Allen/Macy teaming, then “crossing over” to see the Leonidas and friends in their rumble with Xerxes and the Persians. After its 2nd weekend, Wild Hogs’ total domestic box office haul will be $77.2 million.

Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) finished 5th on Friday adding $1.7 million to kick-off the weekend, but its Saturday and Sunday matinee business will likely lift it to $7.4 million for the weekend and a 3rd place finish. The adaptation of the Newbery Medal-winning children’s novel’s cume will be $67.5 million by Monday. Ghost Rider (Sony) generated $2 million on Friday and will be #4 for the weekend with $7 million bringing its to-date domestic take to $104.3 million. Meanwhile, David Fincher’s Zodiac (Paramount) continues to disappoint with $1.9 million Friday and will pick up no more than an estimated $6.6 million for the weekend. The well-reviewed serial killer pic will have a 10-day total of $23.5 million.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $27.8 million
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $ 7.5 million
3. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $2 million
4. Zodiac (Paramount) $1.9
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1.7
6. The Number 23 (New Line) - $1.3 million
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $1.25 million
8. Norbit (Paramount) - $1.2 million
9. Amazing Grace (IDP Films) - $752,000
10. Breach (Universal) - $700,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $60 million [$60 million cume]
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $27.8 million [$77.2 million cume]
3. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $7.4 million [$67.5 million cume]
4. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $7 million [$104.3 million cume]
5. Zodiac (Paramount) - $6.6 million [$23.5 million cume[
8. The Number 23 (New Line) - $3.6 million [$29.7 million cume]
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $3.5 million [$43.55 million cume]
6. Norbit (Paramount) – $3.4 million [$87.4 million cume]
9. Amazing Grace (IDP Films) - $2 million [$10.9 million cume]
10. Breach (Universal) - $1.8 million [$28.3 million cume]

Mira Nair’s The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) appears to be winning the weekend PTA race with an $11,700 PTA at 6 locations yesterday. For the weekend, the story of a man from a traditional Indian family trying to fit into modern American city life will likely finish with a 3-day PTA of $11,700. 300 will be a very strong 2nd with just under $20,000 per location. The doc about monastery life, Into Great Silence (Zeitgeist) should finish 3rd for the weekend, followed by Wild Hogs and the new IFC drama Beyond the Gates.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 6 locations - $11,700 PTA
2. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,103 locations - $10,700 PTA
3. Into Great Silence (Zeitgeist) – 2 locations - $2,701 PTA
4. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) – 3,296 locations - $2,688 PTA
5. Beyond the Gates (IFC Films) – 1 location - $2,374 PTA
6. Exterminating Angels (IFC Films) – 1 location - $2,249 PTA
7. The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) – 127 locations - $1,458 PTA
8. Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) – 16 locations - $1,412 PTA
9. The Host (Magnolia) – 71 locations - $1,239 PTA
10. Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance Atlantis) –34 locations - $1,073 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 6 locations - $20,750 PTA
2. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,103 locations - $19,336 PTA
3. Into Great Silence (Zeitgeist) – 2 locations - $8,600 PTA
4. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) – 3,296 locations - $8,434 PTA
5. Beyond the Gates (IFC Films) – 1 location - $7,950 PTA
6. Exterminating Angels (IFC Films) – 1 location - $7,775 PTA
7. The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) – 127 locations - $4,358 PTA
8. Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) – 16 locations - $4,150 PTA
9. The Host (Magnolia) – 71 locations - $3,965 PTA
10. Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance Atlantis) –34 locations - $3,335 PTA

 

[Carp Man]

Weekend estimates are in. Updates below. $ 6.8 million. Down 41.1 % from last weekend. It has topped DD by about $ 1.7 million.

 

[Theweepeople]

What a joke it is to compare the profits of Ghost Rider with 300. It took 300 3 days to make up its budget with 70million dollars from domestic profits. Ghostrider has been out for 3 weeks and it has almost no possibility of making up it's budget(120million) on merely domestic profits. Without the worldwide gross this movie would be a huge disappointment. I'm still wondering how Avi Arad spent almost twice the budget of 300(action packed, great visuals, cool storyline) on a film that lacked action, had modest visuals, and an idiotic storyline. What's even more pathetic is a week from now 300 will have outgrossed Ghostrider.

 

[RED_Rider]

Theweepeople, you must be crazy to call GR's visuals modest. GR was a great film but even if you didn't like it, you must admit that visual effects were impressive. And 300 has no reall visual effect cuz everything beside acotrs is CG and a very nice but simple CG. And in everyway inclduing visuals Sin City was better than 300 and yet it grossed less than both GR and 300 and won no award. 300 may be R and it may be selling as hell but it doesnt make it the best superhero movie ever, 300 is not even close to that title. (If there was ever a movie that I would say was underrated and underlooked, its Batman Begins, The Best superhero film although Ghost Rider is my favorite character...)

 

[Upset Spideyfan]

300 is not a superhero movie.

 

[Mistopurr83]

Ghostrider has been out for 3 weeks and it has almost no possibility of making up it's budget(120million) on merely domestic profits.

Correction. GR had a budget of $110 million. So by after next weekend it will make back it's whole budget domestically. I find it impressive that it managed to be #4 this past weekend.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Correction. GR had a budget of $110 million. So by after next weekend it will make back it's whole budget domestically. I find it impressive that it managed to be #4 this past weekend.

And dont foret the DVD sales eventually as well.

 

[danoyse]

Holy moley! I thought 300 would do well, but I wasn't anticipating an opening weekend of over $ 60 million.

Me too! Everyone I mentioned to at work on Friday afternoon responded with "Really? Is that actually supposed to be good?" when I said I was seeing it, which had me thinking the early response wasn't very good...at least outside of the fanboy crowd.

Turns out that every show was totally sold out, and when we were leaving there was a line out the door for the midnight show. It was stunning.

Judging from the audience response, it's going to have fantastic word-of-mouth through the next few weeks. Hell, I want to see it again too. t: