BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[InCali]

Yeah but Sunday was Mother’s Day— I don’t see a ton of mothers being taken to see Dr Strange. It actually outgrossed AOU for its Monday tally, which is a pretty impressive feat! We can use AOU as the litmus test it’s a nice comparison so far!

Good point about Mother’s Day. I hadn’t really considered that. Yeah, that’s going to make next weekend even more of a bellwether. I guess people aren’t in the habit of taking mom out to see a horror movie on Mother’s Day. Lol

 

[InCali]

When a movie opens this well, it doesn't matter if it loses even 60 to 65 percent of box office next weekend.

It does in terms of its multiplier when all is said and done, but 60% would not be a horrible drop. If you’re getting up to a 2/3 drop, that’s not good. That puts it in the low/mid 60M 2nd weekend. That would be a tough drop. The horror genre generally doesn’t hold well, but this appears to be some thing of a hybrid. I haven’t seen it yet so I can’t say for sure

 

[sdgrandia86]

Will see it in 3D and screen X later this week and a couple more times the following weeks.

 

[TheVileOne]

It does in terms of its multiplier when all is said and done, but 60% would not be a horrible drop. If you’re getting up to a 2/3 drop, that’s not good. That puts it in the low/mid 60M 2nd weekend. That would be a tough drop. The horror genre generally doesn’t hold well, but this appears to be some thing of a hybrid. I haven’t seen it yet so I can’t say for sure

I wouldn't consider this genuine horror. It's got some chills and horror adjacent elements, but it's not a true horror film. But by next weekend, it's likely going to easily surpass if not come close to the total take of the original. So it's pacing fine.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not sure Firestarter will be a big hit. Reviews are delayed, and Zach Efron is the lead. I'm guessing it will be panned. It's a remake and other than starting Drew Barrymore's career, not one of Steven Kings greatest hits. Seems like another week at no.1 and we'll see how WOM does. I would not be surprised if it comes in less than 60% drop.

 

[Prison Mike]

Seems like CA: Civil War is a pretty good comparison for box office

 

[Shuri]

I was hoping this would make 500m in NA, but looks like 450m will be hard. I still think it gets to a billion WW by the end of its run. That would be impressive especially without China and Russia.

 

[HammerDown]

The comparison with Age of Ultron continues and that scored a 459M domestic total.
Also AOU had a 77M second weekend. We'll see how DS:MOM will be able to keep up with those daily results.

 

[JKKS085]

-65% is a decent hold for a first Monday, that should be put into perspective because of the relatively muted Sunday numbers though.

For context:
- Age of Ultron was -74% (largely due to a big Sunday because of holdovers generated by the Pacquiao/Mayweather fight that happened on Saturday). Ended with a 2.4 multiplier.
- Civil War was -69% but with a smaller drop on Sunday than MoM. To keep in mind also, that movie was really frontloaded and cemented Marvel Studios event movies as front heavy bo performers regardless of reception. This one ended its domestic run with a 2.27 multiplier.
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 was -75%. Ended with a 2.66 multiplier.
And because Covid has and is still disturbing movie going habits, also for good measure:
- The Batman was -68% on its first Monday (that was after a super strong Sunday) and is looking to end its run with a multiplier around 2.75.

First Tuesday numbers are generally a little more telling but if I had to guess I’d say we’re looking at a movie with a potential final domestic gross of anywhere between 405 with a 2.15 multiplier to 455 with a multiplier of around 2.45. This is the range I see and right now I think it’s more likely to finish in the low-end of these estimates. I could be proven wrong though.

Also and it’s not entirely unrelated but I feel the movie came out a week too late. I understand the significance of being the first blockbuster of the summer season but a late April release really feels like the sweet spot for those films. Gives them more room to breathe before the Memorial-Day heavy hitters and the last two weekends of April are usually void of competition. Aside from Covid related fears, I don’t really understand why they sticked with that date after pushing IW and EG forward in 2018 and 2019.

 

[Iceman]

I’m happy with that Monday.

Thought it might have been worse.

 

[Iceman]

I was hoping this would make 500m in NA, but looks like 450m will be hard. I still think it gets to a billion WW by the end of its run. That would be impressive especially without China and Russia.

Yeah I said somewhere else that I would like if the MCU can start getting a billion dollars with regular films (non event-films, ie big teamups) without China and Russia.

 

[JKKS085]

Yeah I said somewhere else that I would like if the MCU can start getting a billion dollars with regular films (non event-films, ie big teamups) without China and Russia.

I think it’s clearly on the horizon. At least for sequels or movies featuring already established characters.
Brand recognition along with inflation driving ticket prices up everywhere should get them there quickly. Now to be clear MoM had a masterful marketing campaign, was riding high on the NWH hype and was the long awaited sequel of a film featuring a character that became a fan favorite in recent years so it may be an outlier of sorts as well.
I feel like Love and Thunder is going to be the real test. I fully expect it to be banned in China and in the Middle East too, it’s obviously not going to screen in Russia, and none of the previous Thor movies cleared 1B. It also seems to be a fairly self contained story (save for the GotG bits) and another filmmaker driven film so it can go either way.

Also after 2 years of Disney+ shows I’m curious to see the kind of impact those new characters will make once they cross over to the silver screen.

 

[TheVileOne]

Not sure Firestarter will be a big hit. Reviews are delayed, and Zach Efron is the lead. I'm guessing it will be panned. It's a remake and other than starting Drew Barrymore's career, not one of Steven Kings greatest hits. Seems like another week at no.1 and we'll see how WOM does. I would not be surprised if it comes in less than 60% drop.

Firestarter has a simultaneous release. Clearly they don't have high hopes for the theatrical box office.

 

[TheVileOne]

-65% is a decent hold for a first Monday, that should be put into perspective because of the relatively muted Sunday numbers though.

For context:
- Age of Ultron was -74% (largely due to a big Sunday because of holdovers generated by the Pacquiao/Mayweather fight that happened on Saturday). Ended with a 2.4 multiplier.
- Civil War was -69% but with a smaller drop on Sunday than MoM. To keep in mind also, that movie was really frontloaded and cemented Marvel Studios event movies as front heavy bo performers regardless of reception. This one ended its domestic run with a 2.27 multiplier.
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 was -75%. Ended with a 2.66 multiplier.
And because Covid has and is still disturbing movie going habits, also for good measure:
- The Batman was -68% on its first Monday (that was after a super strong Sunday) and is looking to end its run with a multiplier around 2.75.

First Tuesday numbers are generally a little more telling but if I had to guess I’d say we’re looking at a movie with a potential final domestic gross of anywhere between 405 with a 2.15 multiplier to 455 with a multiplier of around 2.45. This is the range I see and right now I think it’s more likely to finish in the low-end of these estimates. I could be proven wrong though.

Also and it’s not entirely unrelated but I feel the movie came out a week too late. I understand the significance of being the first blockbuster of the summer season but a late April release really feels like the sweet spot for those films. Gives them more room to breathe before the Memorial-Day heavy hitters and the last two weekends of April are usually void of competition. Aside from Covid related fears, I don’t really understand why they sticked with that date after pushing IW and EG forward in 2018 and 2019.

First weekend of May is historically a good weekend to have for a tentpole release.

Yeah I said somewhere else that I would like if the MCU can start getting a billion dollars with regular films (non event-films, ie big teamups) without China and Russia.

Hollywood's deeply embedded relationship with China was bad for the industry. I'm glad it appears to finally be changing. A government should not be allowed to regulate and control your art and media.

 

[psylockolussus]

Seems like CA: Civil War is a pretty good comparison for box office

Given how Civil War was like Avengers 3, and this one is Strange Vs Wanda: Dawn of Illuminati, its pretty good.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, ahead of time I think most would be very happy with the numbers for this.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

First weekend of May is historically a good weekend to have for a tentpole release.



Hollywood's deeply embedded relationship with China was bad for the industry. I'm glad it appears to finally be changing. A government should not be allowed to regulate and control your art and media.

They should take it a step further— u don’t wanna play our movies fine, u don’t need to make our toys either. Having independence from China in the long run is the better option anyway.

 

[TheVileOne]

They should take it a step further— u don’t wanna play our movies fine, u don’t need to make our toys either. Having independence from China in the long run is the better option anyway.

While I personally would be OK with that, I'm not sure US-based companies are ready to give up those relationships because they likely benefit from the cheaper labor costs.

 

[psylockolussus]

I just don't want these big studios to rely on China's boX office numbers, like 1 billion is great but I'd rather have Marvel Studios be banned in that country (and the middle East) as long as Marvel Studios could do whatever they want in their films, like featuring LGBT characters in a lead role.

But i also think Marvel Studios should make an edit (for eXample, Eternals) that would pass the censorship of those countries - simply because i know there are HUGE Marvel fans living in those countries that would want to see these movies in the big screen - censored or not.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

I just don't want these big studios to rely on China's boX office numbers, like 1 billion is great but I'd rather have Marvel Studios be banned in that country (and the middle East) as long as Marvel Studios could do whatever they want in their films, like featuring LGBT characters in a lead role.

But i also think Marvel Studios should make an edit (for eXample, Eternals) that would pass the censorship of those countries - simply because i know there are HUGE Marvel fans living in those countries that would want to see these movies in the big screen - censored or not.

I think the fact that countries love Marvel as they do is the reason NOT to do an edited version. Remember the first time u seen a same sex couple kiss on tv and it was a big deal? They answer to that question depends on ur age if u we’re born in the 00s it’s probably never was a big deal, but this born before that time remember. Same goes for those countries— exposure to those sort of thing normalizes it which is good. The fans will likely get bootleg versions but that’s ok, that’s still exposure in a positive way.

 

[Prison Mike]

While I personally would be OK with that, I'm not sure US-based companies are ready to give up those relationships because they likely benefit from the cheaper labor costs.

And those increased costs will be passed down to the customer.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think the fact that countries love Marvel as they do is the reason NOT to do an edited version. Remember the first time u seen a same sex couple kiss on tv and it was a big deal? They answer to that question depends on ur age if u we’re born in the 00s it’s probably never was a big deal, but this born before that time remember. Same goes for those countries— exposure to those sort of thing normalizes it which is good. The fans will likely get bootleg versions but that’s ok, that’s still exposure in a positive way.

Not having an edited version takes away the opportunity from fans from those countries from not seeing majority of the movie in the big screen though. And those fans simply don't have the power to change the regulations of their government as much as they want to.

Bootleg and the small screen aren't the same eXperience at all compare to seeing the movie in the big screen with theater sound system.

The governments of those countries wouldn't lose anything by banning Marvel movies. The government of China and the Middle Eastern countries are simply not going to change their views because of a Hollywood movie. So the fans who live in those countries are the ones missing out. Imo, it wouldn't hurt to compromise, cut some scenes so the ones who are interested in watching the movie would get to see it in their nearest cinema.

 

[HammerDown]

BO results - DS:MOM || AOU
Monday……..…...13.3M || 13.2M
Tuesday……..…...12.6M || 13.1M

 

[InCali]

Seems like CA: Civil War is a pretty good comparison for box office

That was my thought pretty early on. I think CA:CW had a multiplier of about 2.25 and that's "about" where I thought this would be. Next weekend will tell a big story.

 

[kguillou]