Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[third3ye]

*cough* Something to remember is, when estimating break even points? Be careful not to accidentally double stack. When studios talk about only get X percent overseas, part of that reduced percentage is because of local subsidiaries spending money on. . . overseas distribution and marketing. So, that "40% overseas" revenue figure is already accounting for overseas marketing. You don't also add X million to the expenses column.

Really, its best to just ignore marketing costs, unless there's some reason to believe they are unusually high ( TASM 2 ). Half of them are funny money transfers between corporate divisions, or contract barter between companies with no cash changing hands; the other half are typically balanced out by tax breaks and product placement.

All good points. Not every overseas distributor covers P&A though and it varies depending on the agreements negotiated with all those distributors. Also I'm not sure such an agreement should affect theater rental %s as that's worked out between the distributor and the theater chain, but overseas distributors are allowed to recover P&A costs they've spent prior to sending money to Disney so there is some of that going on in lowering Disney's net take from IBO. Given that and the fact that Disney owns distribution in some international territories, it's probably safe to assume that Disney's P&A spend isn't 100% domestic only. And regarding marketing costs by film, every studio does it on their books. Granted there is an allocation method behind it as a good chunk of these costs are shared overhead within the studio, but at the end of the day a film's P&L whether for internal studio accounting or participation accounting does get assigned a marketing budget. Clearly we can get analysis paralysis here, I just used some rough industry estimates to guesstimate a break-even, but lots of good points brought up.

 

[GL's Light]

From BoxOffice.com:

ANT-MAN took in $3.32M on Monday. Domestic total stands at $109.54M.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

Yup, those are the biggies remaining. There's also Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Lebanon, Latvia, South Africa, Mongolia, Austria and Greece, per IMDb.

Opend here last wednesday

 

[JtheDreamer]

*cough* Something to remember is, when estimating break even points? Be careful not to accidentally double stack. When studios talk about only get X percent overseas, part of that reduced percentage is because of local subsidiaries spending money on. . . overseas distribution and marketing. So, that "40% overseas" revenue figure is already accounting for overseas marketing. You don't also add X million to the expenses column.

Really, its best to just ignore marketing costs, unless there's some reason to believe they are unusually high ( TASM 2 ). Half of them are funny money transfers between corporate divisions, or contract barter between companies with no cash changing hands; the other half are typically balanced out by tax breaks and product placement.

Great post and said it better than I was able to.

There is no way this film isn't profitable.

 

[Vincanws]

So they want to get to around $390M roughly worldwide to just break even?

DOM marketing + budget: 50M + 130M = about 180M needed

Dom: $160M gross x 55% take = $88M
Overseas: $230m gross x 40% take = $92M (assumed foreign marketing included in the 40%)

$88M+$92M = $180M net

$180M less 50M less 130M = 0 break even

 

[SomeOldGuy]

There is no way this film isn't profitable.

I have complete faith that Hollywood's famous accounting system will ensure that Ant-Man never comes close to making a dime. t:

 

[third3ye]

I have complete faith that Hollywood's famous accounting system will ensure that Ant-Man never comes close to making a dime. t:

That's net proceeds accounting, different from internal studio accounting.

 

[JKKS085]

Good monday numbers. It keeps holding better than CATFA both on week days and week ends and is close to catch up its dailies. Fingers crossed it's going to manage a good hold this week end against MIRN.

 

[JKKS085]

Just had a look at Deadline's 2014 breakdown and foreign rentals (excluding China) are generally 38.5% to 40% of foreign box office.

Right. They got 36.35% for CATWS and 40% for GOTG before factoring in foreign releasing costs.
Much lower percentages when you factor them in.

To add to the conversation they reportedly spent 78 and 79,4 millions in P&A costs for CATWS and GoTG overseas releases, I doubt they spent that much for Ant-Man.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Hope this continues to get good WOM so it can make as much as possible, really enjoyed this.

 

[samsnee]

It's official. A talking raccoon and tree are less weird than a man who talks to ants.

 

[Marvel]

Hope this continues to get good WOM so it can make as much as possible, really enjoyed this.

That's the key. Word of mouth continues to be exceptional. Everyone is talking up Ant-Man.

 

[Flint Marko]

I can't get over the fact that an Ant-man movie was ever made, let alone one as good as it is.

It's official. A talking raccoon and tree are less weird than a man who talks to ants.

I said for quite a while that Ant-man would be a considerably tougher sell than Guardians.

 

[InCali]

Good monday numbers. It keeps holding better than CATFA both on week days and week ends and is close to catch up its dailies. Fingers crossed it's going to manage a good hold this week end against MIRN.

MIRN is getting some very solid reviews and I suspect it will be an over performer with pretty good staying power. The trailers (esp the one on how they did the jet scene) have been pretty kick @$$. I heard they had to do 8 takes of that scene. LOL. I don't know if that's true, but it makes a pretty good story. I'd like to try something like that. That's one of the most rad things I've ever seen. People at work didn't believe Cruise actually did that scene. I had a hard time believing it even when I saw the trailer.

I think "part" of the reason Ant-Man is doing so well during the week is because school is out all over the country. Don't get me wrong, it's a really good movie, but having that pool of people available during the day doesn't hurt. Same with JW. It was gonna be huge, but not AS huge as it was if it had opened in May IMO.

 

[InCali]

I can't get over the fact that an Ant-man movie was ever made, let alone one as good as it is.



I said for quite a while that Ant-man would be a considerably tougher sell than Guardians.

And you were right. The thing about GotG was that the marketing struck platinum. Those trailers were soooooo good. That and the movie was different as well as being really, really well done.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

MIRN is getting some very solid reviews and I suspect it will be an over performer with pretty good staying power. The trailers (esp the one on how they did the jet scene) have been pretty kick @$$. I heard they had to do 8 takes of that scene. LOL. I don't know if that's true, but it makes a pretty good story. I'd like to try something like that. That's one of the most rad things I've ever seen. People at work didn't believe Cruise actually did that scene. I had a hard time believing it even when I saw the trailer.

I think "part" of the reason Ant-Man is doing so well during the week is because school is out all over the country. Don't get me wrong, it's a really good movie, but having that pool of people available during the day doesn't hurt. Same with JW. It was gonna be huge, but not AS huge as it was if it had opened in May IMO.

MI:RN should be a crowd-pleaser and I expect it to do well, but it doesn't seem to be building up a lot of steam ahead of this OW. The Vacation remake, which is getting terrible reviews, started previews last night and could surprise. It's a gross-out comedy, which isn't my style but a lot of people like that kind of thing. YMMV, I guess. It'll be interesting to see if Ant-Man can hang onto third place.

 

[InCali]

MI:RN should be a crowd-pleaser and I expect it to do well, but it doesn't seem to be building up a lot of steam ahead of this OW. The Vacation remake, which is getting terrible reviews, started previews last night and could surprise. It's a gross-out comedy, which isn't my style but a lot of people like that kind of thing. YMMV, I guess. It'll be interesting to see if Ant-Man can hang onto third place.

I'm not normally a big fan of the gross-out comedy genre; though I will confess to doing an awful lot of laughing when I saw Animal House.

Vacation has an R rating and bad reviews. We'll see. I'd say maybe $24M??

EDIT: I didn't realize until just now that Vacation opened today instead of Friday.....I think that means less than $24M. Could open at #3 if it gets bad WOM, but will probably hang on to #2.

MI:RN will do, IMO, near 60M (which is way up from what people were saying a couple of weeks ago.....but don't forget that I'm probably wrong.....again t: ). Given that there's really no new family friendly fare this weekend, I think Ant-Man will easily stay in 3rd with maybe mid to higher teens?? Pixels will drop like a rock and Minions will basically track Ant-Man; only lower.

So sayeth the guy who knows nothing.....

 

[Themanofbat]

MI:RN should be a crowd-pleaser and I expect it to do well, but it doesn't seem to be building up a lot of steam ahead of this OW. The Vacation remake, which is getting terrible reviews, started previews last night and could surprise. It's a gross-out comedy, which isn't my style but a lot of people like that kind of thing. YMMV, I guess. It'll be interesting to see if Ant-Man can hang onto third place.

Vacation is not a remake... it's the continuing story of Rusty Griswald and his family... Clark is in the movie also...

Admittedly, I'm sure we'll see a LOT of "redo's" from the first one, but it IS a continuing storyline... Just sayin'...

 

[SomeOldGuy]

EDIT: I didn't realize until just now that Vacation opened today instead of Friday.....I think that means less than $24M. Could open at #3 if it gets bad WOM, but will probably hang on to #2.

According to WB Vacation pulled in $1.2 million in previews last night, so yeah, figure by the end of Thursday they'll have taken in a few million that would have gone into the weekend.

 

[GL's Light]

Pre-sales are weak for M:I so far. It's going to need a lot of walk-up business. Tom Cruise hasn't opened a movie to more than $40 million in almost a decade.

 

[InCali]

Pre-sales are weak for M:I so far. It's going to need a lot of walk-up business. Tom Cruise hasn't opened a movie to more than $40 million in almost a decade.

Hey, I never said I was smart or good at the game. t:

EDIT: I haven't bought a ticket because I didn't really think I needed to, but they'll get their $15 out of me.

 

[GL's Light]

You never know. It might break out late in the day.

 

[GL's Light]

From BoxOffice.com:

ANT-MAN took in $4.27M on Tuesday. Domestic total stands at $113.81M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Nice Tuesday hop again.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Nice Tuesday hop again.

Yup. Still better than CA:TFA and Thor.