Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup. Still better than CA:TFA and Thor.

I think there are more theaters doing discount Tuesday's now vs. then.

 

[Tymminator]

Great holds. Too bad there are no imminent up holidays coming up where it could enjoy a much deserved bump.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Great holds. Too bad there are no imminent up holidays coming up where it could enjoy a much deserved bump.

What about Labor Day Weekend?

 

[Tymminator]

What about Labor Day Weekend?

It's the closest one, but it's in a month from now, most of the domestic will be made by then I figure and that will be a pretty small bump.

Still I guess, better than nothing.

 

[InCali]

Nice Tuesday hop again.

Yeah. That's something I didn't notice until someone brought it up last week. Someone theorized that it was the discount some theaters offered on Tuesday that was responsible. It's nice having that pool of students available during the day. Ant-Man's numbers are doing just fine. Not spectacular, but solid and we've got another cool character for future use (2 characters if you count Giant-Man).

 

[third3ye]

Me likey the daily numbers this week, hoping Ant-Man can hold onto the #2 spot this weekend and beat out Vacation over the 3-day.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Me likey the daily numbers this week, hoping Ant-Man can hold onto the #2 spot this weekend and beat out Vacation over the 3-day.

It looks like that could actually happen. Vacation stalled out of the gate with just $3.8 million yesterday (its opening day) and that includes the $1.2 million from Tuesday previews. Still, my guess is Vacation comes out a few million ahead in the end.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Me likey the daily numbers this week, hoping Ant-Man can hold onto the #2 spot this weekend and beat out Vacation over the 3-day.

I think WOM has helped a lot, after seeing I told all of my friends to do the same, I am sure many others have done exactly that after seeing it as well.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$3,005,710 for Wednesday per boxoffice.com. That puts it up to about $116.8 million domestic.

 

[InCali]

I think WOM has helped a lot, after seeing I told all of my friends to do the same, I am sure many others have done exactly that after seeing it as well.

Vacation is 28% on RT. I don't pay critics much attention, but others do. I think it could dip below 20M because of the Wednesday opening and an R rating. If it ends up there, it's in Ant-Man territory. I'm going to the Howard Hughes Center Cinemark XD with my wife Friday at 1pm to see MI:RN. It's still at 93% on RT. That's rarified air for an action thriller. A lot of the reviews are good but aren't great, but even the critics are giving it a solid reception.

 

[InCali]

$3,005,710 for Wednesday per boxoffice.com. That puts it up to about $116.8 million domestic.

It'll be pushing 135M by the end of the weekend. It should end up way north of 150 when all is said and done.

 

[JKKS085]

It'll be pushing 135M by the end of the weekend. It should end up way north of 150 when all is said and done.

Yep, it should be just shy of 135M after the week end (probably around 133.5M/134M). If it manages to hold better than CATFA once again I have a hard time seeing it miss 160M. After its third week end CATFA grossed another 32M dom, at the moment Ant-Man's dailies are on par or slightly ahead so another 32 millions after the week end isn't far fetched and would put it around 166M.

CATFA grossed 13M in its third week end, if Ant-Man grosses closer to 14M I think it even has a chance at hitting 170M.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Yep, it should be just shy of 135M after the week end (probably around 133.5M/134M). If it manages to hold better than CATFA once again I have a hard time seeing it miss 160M. After its third week end CATFA grossed another 32M dom, at the moment Ant-Man's dailies are on par or slightly ahead so another 32 millions after the week end isn't far fetched and would put it around 166M.

CATFA grossed 13M in its third week end, if Ant-Man grosses closer to 14M I think it even has a chance at hitting 170M.

Hopefully this happens then, the movie deserves to be a success and I think $160 million domestic would be a great haul, with good International numbers giving it a decent WW total.

 

[InCali]

Yep, it should be just shy of 135M after the week end (probably around 133.5M/134M). If it manages to hold better than CATFA once again I have a hard time seeing it miss 160M. After its third week end CATFA grossed another 32M dom, at the moment Ant-Man's dailies are on par or slightly ahead so another 32 millions after the week end isn't far fetched and would put it around 166M.

CATFA grossed 13M in its third week end, if Ant-Man grosses closer to 14M I think it even has a chance at hitting 170M.

When I saw it the first time, my reaction was that a 3x multiplier wasn't out of the ballpark. I thought it would gross over 60M on opening weekend however so my initial projection was quite a bit higher.

 

[InCali]

I'm not normally a big fan of the gross-out comedy genre; though I will confess to doing an awful lot of laughing when I saw Animal House.

Vacation has an R rating and bad reviews. We'll see. I'd say maybe $24M??

EDIT: I didn't realize until just now that Vacation opened today instead of Friday.....I think that means less than $24M. Could open at #3 if it gets bad WOM, but will probably hang on to #2.

MI:RN will do, IMO, near 60M (which is way up from what people were saying a couple of weeks ago.....but don't forget that I'm probably wrong.....again t: ). Given that there's really no new family friendly fare this weekend, I think Ant-Man will easily stay in 3rd with maybe mid to higher teens?? Pixels will drop like a rock and Minions will basically track Ant-Man; only lower.

So sayeth the guy who knows nothing.....

OK, I've changed my mind after looking at the Wednesday figures. Ant-Man, I believe, has a real chance to end up #2 this week after MI:RN. Vacation brought in 800K more on Wednesday, but I believe that included the 1.2M from Tuesday evenings. That means on Wednesday proper, that Ant-Man actually took in more than Vacation. EVEN IF IT DIDN'T take Tuesday into account, I could have Ant-Man pegged at #2 with those numbers. Wednesday openings tend to drag down weekend BO numbers; especially if the movie doesn't play that well to the audiences. Your front loading takes place before Fridays.

I think people are overestimating Vacation when they talk about 20M (which is down from previous expectations) and underestimating Ant-Man when they talk low teens. If it pulled in 3M on a Wednesday (as opposed to 2.6M for Vacation), I don't see why it can't average substantially more than Vacation on weekend days. We'll see.

So sayeth the guy who knows nothing.......

 

[JKKS085]

20M we is dead for Vacation. It's probably going to fall short of that in its 5-days cume. The film is going to fall under Ant-Man today with Ant-Man regaining the virtual top spot (MI-RN previews are going to go higher than 2.75M, hopefully), even with a reasonable jump on Friday and Saturday it's poised to come short of 15M for the 3 days we. I can even see it going as low as 13/14M which is indeed Ant-Man territory.
Vacation is really performing horribly showing a crazy front-loading.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

My guess for the weekend is MI:RN #1 (that's a lock) and Minions #2 (it seemed to be picking up a bit toward the end of the week and may have edged out Ant-Man for No. 1 on Thursday). After that I think we get a big pile-up between Ant-Man, Pixels and Vacation (and maybe Trainwreck) in the $10-15 million range. It'll be fun to watch who lands where.

 

[JKKS085]

My guess for the weekend is MI:RN #1 (that's a lock) and Minions #2 (it seemed to be picking up a bit toward the end of the week and may have edged out Ant-Man for No. 1 on Thursday). After that I think we get a big pile-up between Ant-Man, Pixels and Vacation (and maybe Trainwreck) in the $10-15 million range. It'll be fun to watch who lands where.

The same thing happened last week between Ant-Man and Minions (well Minions actually did better on Wednesday and Thursday and the gap was higher going into the week end) but Ant-Man seems to get better jumps on Fridays and Saturdays and better holds on Sundays.
Now MI-RN is definitely more competition for Ant-Man than it is for Minions, targeting similar demos, but I'd be really surprised to see Minions picking up steam so late especially with Inside Out still playing strong. Based on a 2.75M Thursday and the pattern of jumps and drops it displayed in previous week ends I can see it doing 12.5/13M. Ant-Man is probably going to go a little bit higher than that.

There's likely going to be two groups ; Pixels, Trainwreck and Southpaw around the 10/11M mark ; Ant-Man, Vacations and Minions around the 13/15M mark. And hopefully MI-RN well ahead of that with a great opening week end.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

How the intl BO looking?

 

[GL's Light]

After a slow start, M:I5 has come on strong in pre-sales in the last few days and early word is that it made over $5 million in Thursday previews. Looks like it might well break out to a $60 million plus opening, which would be Cruise's biggest in a long time.

Edit to add: Deadline reports the Thursday previews a bit lower at $4 million. Then they say this about its weekend prospects:

Conservative projections peg M:I5 with an opening in the low-$40M range, which puts the $150M-budgeted pic under the first FSS of Mission: Impossible III ($47.7M). However, some industry execs believe that the film could potentially beat those conservative projections with a $50M+ opening thanks to the high praise critics have been lavishing on the Tom Cruise sequel, which has a Rotten Tomatoes fresh score of 92% that is a tad below Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol’s 93%.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How the intl BO looking?

Hard to say because openings are so spread out. Generally speaking, from what I've been able to glean here and there online, it's doing OK but not great in Europe, with the UK and Russia being a bit stronger, and France and Germany/Austria weaker. South America sounds like a bust; Minions is all the rage. OTOH it packed houses in Hong Kong and Taiwan, so it looks like a hit in Asia...but it doesn't open in S. Korea and Japan for a while and is still waiting on a China release date.

 

[InCali]

After a slow start, M:I5 has come on strong in pre-sales in the last few days and early word is that it made over $5 million in Thursday previews. Looks like it might well break out to a $60 million plus opening, which would be Cruise's biggest in a long time.

Edit to add: Deadline reports the Thursday previews a bit lower at $4 million. Then they say this about its weekend prospects:

I felt early on that it could do 50-60M; esp. with the stellar reviews and the killer jet trailer explaining that Tom was crazy enough to actually do that stunt himself.

Someone said he did 8 takes. Does anyone know if that's BS or not? That is just whack.

 

[InCali]

After a slow start, M:I5 has come on strong in pre-sales in the last few days and early word is that it made over $5 million in Thursday previews. Looks like it might well break out to a $60 million plus opening, which would be Cruise's biggest in a long time.

Edit to add: Deadline reports the Thursday previews a bit lower at $4 million. Then they say this about its weekend prospects:

Quote:
Conservative projections peg M:I5 with an opening in the low-$40M range, which puts the $150M-budgeted pic under the first FSS of Mission: Impossible III ($47.7M). However, some industry execs believe that the film could potentially beat those conservative projections with a $50M+ opening thanks to the high praise critics have been lavishing on the Tom Cruise sequel, which has a Rotten Tomatoes fresh score of 92% that is a tad below Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol’s 93%.

Currently at 93% on RT with an audience rating of 4.3/5. The audience rating doesn't surprise me for this kind of movie when it's a good one, but I'm a little bit surprised by 2 consecutive 93% for a franchise like this. It looks like they want to strike with MI:6 while the iron is hot.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Ant-Man's global total is now at nearly $240M WW. Hopefully by this weekend it'll pass more than $300M globally.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

‏@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN took in $2.71M on Thursday. Domestic total stands at $119.53M.