Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Themanofbat]

Those 40+% drops are awesome!!!

 

[JtheDreamer]

I felt early on that it could do 50-60M; esp. with the stellar reviews and the killer jet trailer explaining that Tom was crazy enough to actually do that stunt himself.

Someone said he did 8 takes. Does anyone know if that's BS or not? That is just whack.

The last MI did fairly well in theaters .... $694 million WW.

 

[GL's Light]

Deadline is currently expecting $45-50 million for M:I5, $15-16 million for Vacation and Minions, and $12 million for Ant-Man.

 

[JKKS085]

Deadline is currently expecting $45-50 million for M:I5, $15-16 million for Vacation and Minions, and $12 million for Ant-Man.

It is clear based on the Thursday number that MI-RN will hurt Ant-Man this week end. However I have a really hard time seeing a 4 millions gap between Minions and Ant-Man at the end of the week end. I'm not sure about the reasoning behind these numbers.
MI-RN numbers seem (sadly) realistic though.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I think $14M is possible for this third weekend for Ant-Man.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline update...Vacation sinking fast, MI surging:

Friday Update #2: Sources report that Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation is trending for a possible opening day close to $20 million. If that early projection holds, the well-reviewed Tom Cruise franchise pic could be heading for an opening weekend of $50 million or more.

Meanwhile, Vacation is heading for a three-day frame around $12-13 million, which would give it a disappointing five-day opening south of $20 million. The comedy franchise revival could even potentially rank behind Ant-Man and Minions for the weekend

 

[JKKS085]

Rth on the BoT boards puts MI-RN between 22.5 and 25M on Friday.
Ant-Man would be at 3.6M under Minions and Vacation at 4M.

That would put Ant-Man at around 12.5/13M for the week end (hopefully it's getting a good saturday bump and holds well on sunday to get closer to 13M).
If these numbers hold (especially the high end of the estimates) MI could get an opening we in the high 50's but I wouldn't rule 60M+ just yet as it would show very little frontloading.

 

[Marvel]

Saw MI: Rogue Nation today on Ant-Man's ticket (paid to see Ant-Man so it got my money ) and word of mouth is going to be strong for Rogue Nation. That's one high quality flick. I enjoyed it immensely.

 

[Mysteryman]

Deadline update...Vacation sinking fast, MI surging:

Friday Update #2: Sources report that Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation is trending for a possible opening day close to $20 million. If that early projection holds, the well-reviewed Tom Cruise franchise pic could be heading for an opening weekend of $50 million or more.

Meanwhile, Vacation is heading for a three-day frame around $12-13 million, which would give it a disappointing five-day opening south of $20 million. The comedy franchise revival could even potentially rank behind Ant-Man and Minions for the weekend

Not surprised about Vacation .
At least it looks like Ant Man won't be crushed by the competition.
The film seems to be holding its own.
And who knows?
Maybe it will overtake Vacation.

 

[Mysteryman]

Saw MI: Rogue Nation today on Ant-Man's ticket (paid to see Ant-Man so it got my money ) and word of mouth is going to be strong for Rogue Nation. That's one high quality flick. I enjoyed it immensely.

Is it fair to say that not all of the best bits are in the trailers and ads ?
Even with all that they showed ,
I feel that they were definitely holding back, which is a good thing.
Heck, they only released two clips .

 

[Raiden]

Saw MI: Rogue Nation today on Ant-Man's ticket (paid to see Ant-Man so it got my money ) and word of mouth is going to be strong for Rogue Nation. That's one high quality flick. I enjoyed it immensely.

I don't like Cruise, but I do like Renner and Pegg so I might catch it later on Redbox.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Morning update from deadline:

1). Mission: Impossible-Rogue Nation (PAR), 3,956 theaters / $20M Fri. / 3-day cume: $51.4M / Wk 1

2). Vacation (WB), 3,411 theaters / $4.35M Fri. / 3-day cume: $13.3M / Total cume: $19.7M /Wk 1

3). Minions (UNI), 3,575 theaters (-491)/ $3.65M Fri. (-46%)/ 3-day cume: $12.6M (-45%)/Total Cume: $287.5M / Wk 4

4). Ant-Man (DIS), 3,322 theaters (-546) / $3.5M Fri. (-52%) / 3-day cume: $11.9M (-52%)/Total cume: $131.4M/Wk 3

5). Pixels (SONY), 3,723 theaters (0)/ $3.1M Fri. (-66%) / 3-day cume: $10.2M (-57%)/Total cume: $45.7M/ Wk 2

6). Trainwreck (UNI), 2,960 theaters (-211)/ $2.8M Fri. (-47%) / 3-day cume: $9.3M (-46%)/Total cume: $79.2M/ Wk 3

7). Southpaw (TWC), 2,772 theaters (0) / $2.3M Fri. (-63%) / 3-day cume: $7.8M (-53%)/ Total cume: $31.9M/Wk 2

8). Inside Out (DIS), 1,904 theaters (-813)/ $1.5M Fri. (-31%)/ 3-day cume: $5.1M (-31%) /Total cume: $330M/ Wk 7

9). Paper Towns (FOX), 3,031 theaters (0) / $1.6M Fri. (-75%) / 3-day cume: $4.9M (-61%)/Total cume: $23.9M / Wk 2

10). Jurassic World (UNI), 1,912 theaters (-733) / $1.2M Fri. (-44%) / 3-day cume: $4.1M (-42%) /Total cume: $631.4M/ Wk 8

11). Mr. Holmes (RSA), 901 theaters (+215) / $610k Fri. (-22%) / 3-day cume: $2.2M (-23%) /Total cume: $10.18M/ Wk 3

http://deadline.com/2015/08/mission-impossible-rogue-nation-vacation-box-office-1201488017

 

[GL's Light]

If that estimate holds, it'll be Tom Cruise's third biggest opening (unadjusted) in a starring role after War of the Worlds ($64.8 million in 2005) and Mission: Impossible II ($57.8 million in 2000).

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Seems like Ant Man is having a good hold his weekend which is good news, with its lesser budget it is going to be a success with these holds.

 

[JKKS085]

-52% is steep for a third week end drop though.
That's steeper than CATFA's third week end drop (-48%), while Ant-Man was so far holding a bit better (or on par with CATFA). MI-RN is definitely hurting its business. I'm still hoping for a week end closer to 12.5M (needs a 40% jump today and a 20% drop on Sunday).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

-52% is steep for a third week end drop though.
That's steeper than CATFA's third week end drop (-48%), while Ant-Man was so far holding a bit better (or on par with CATFA). MI-RN is definitely hurting its business. I'm still hoping for a week end closer to 12.5M (needs a 40% jump today and a 20% drop on Sunday).

Agree with all of that. I think you're seeing the impact of Ant-Man losing higher-ticket IMAX and 3D shows too. But in the end, props to Cruise. Like GL said this would be a boffo opening for him and there were a lot of people saying he wasn't a big draw anymore. Looks like crow will be served at a lot of Hollywood Sunday brunches.

 

[Mike Murdock]

Saw MI: Rogue Nation today on Ant-Man's ticket (paid to see Ant-Man so it got my money ) and word of mouth is going to be strong for Rogue Nation. That's one high quality flick. I enjoyed it immensely.

If you enjoyed it, why not actually support it with the money you spent to see it?

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

If you enjoyed it, why not actually support it with the money you spent to see it?

Agreed, doing stuff like that is just crazy to me, but to each their own I suppose.

 

[Flint Marko]

Does Ant-man have a chance of reaching $300 million WW?

 

[InCali]

Does Ant-man have a chance of reaching $300 million WW?

I think it will go well over 400M and maybe 450M.

 

[Flint Marko]

I think it will go well over 400M and maybe 450M.

Interesting, good to know. I voted for 300-400, I'd be a little disappointed if it didn't reach those heights.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yah, I think $400 million WW is a lock at this point.

Latest weekend estimates from BO:

MI $55 million
Vacation $13.9 million
Ant-Man $12.4 million
Minions $12 million
Pixels $10.3 million

 

[InCali]

Yah, I think $400 million WW is a lock at this point.

Latest weekend estimates from BO:

MI $55 million
Vacation $13.9 million
Ant-Man $12.4 million
Minions $12 million
Pixels $10.3 million

Man, Vacation just frelling ate it. (EDIT: They were talking about it doing double that just a week ago) Someone said (rightly) that Ant-Man is seeing the loss of premium theater showings. Vacation and Ant-Man (and Minions for that matter) could be close.

MI:RN probably will lose out to FF next weekend, but I don't think that's an absolute lock at this point in time. Next week is going to be VERY interesting.

 

[Docker2.0]

Man, Vacation just frelling ate it. (EDIT: They were talking about it doing double that just a week ago) Someone said (rightly) that Ant-Man is seeing the loss of premium theater showings. Vacation and Ant-Man (and Minions for that matter) could be close.

MI:RN probably will lose out to FF next weekend, but I don't think that's an absolute lock at this point in time. Next week is going to be VERY interesting.

Don't be so sure about that one. I wouldn't be shocked if MI:RN won that weekend. Even though Antman and Minions have been out for awhile, I still think it's enough competition to beat out the F4...............at least I hope anyway.

 

[InCali]

Don't be so sure about that one. I wouldn't be shocked if MI:RN won that weekend. Even though Antman and Minions have been out for awhile, I still think it's enough competition to beat out the F4...............at least I hope anyway.

In my own defense, I did say "probably". Say MI gets a higher BO than we expect (Say 63M for the sake of discussion). If it only had a 40% drop, it would come in at about 38M. That might very well beat out FF, but both of those numbers seem more than a little far fetched.

When I said it isn't an absolute lock, I was thinking that FF could pull a Vacation and take a dive like Battlin' Jack Murdock (Well, not his last fight). Say the last minute reviews just stink to high heaven. Who knows what'll happen to FF OW numbers then?