Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Vincanws]

Wow....Close to $300M without china, japan and S.korea. Well.....I think its conclusive now. Anything with a marvel stamp is gonna gross loads and loads of $$$.

Bring on that squirrel girl adaptation.....

I hope Marvel doesn't begin thinking they can always be guaranteed success just because of their "stamp". Like putting out any old crap, and expecting people to follow. But it's a romantic idea...

 

[Flint Marko]

The only reason their stamp means anything is because they are consistently turning out quality films that people love to watch. If they stop doing that, their audience will dry up. I'm sure they know this.

 

[Raiden]

Marvel has been playing behind the 8 Ball from the beginning, so they take nothing for granted. Instead of well-known superheroes like Spider-Man and the X-Men, they had to make movies for B or C-list superheroes like Iron Man, Thor, and Capt. America. And they had to do it while borrowing loans from Merrill Lynch. I think that's why they had success with GOTG and Ant-Man because they've been doing it since Day One. Marvel has no safety blanket like WB has with Batman.

 

[KangConquers]

Am I the only person who sees this film's performance as lowing the marvel stamp a bit? Don't get me wrong, this was a great film, but before Ant-Man, it looked like no new Marvel film was going to gross below $500 M worldwide.

Yes this film had a lower budget, yes it had low expectations, yes it a lot going against it...but let's call the film what it is. A modest success that has yet to hit the black.

 

[Raiden]

Am I the only person who sees this film's performance as lowing the marvel stamp a bit? Don't get me wrong, this was a great film, but before Ant-Man, it looked like no new Marvel film was going to gross below $500 M worldwide.

Yes this film had a lower budget, yes it had low expectations, yes it a lot going against it...but let's call the film what it is. A modest success that has yet to hit the black.

Ant-Man still hasn't opened in China and Japan. It still has a chance to gross over 500 mil WW.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Am I the only person who sees this film's performance as lowing the marvel stamp a bit? Don't get me wrong, this was a great film, but before Ant-Man, it looked like no new Marvel film was going to gross below $500 M worldwide.

Yes this film had a lower budget, yes it had low expectations, yes it a lot going against it...but let's call the film what it is. A modest success that has yet to hit the black.

People weren't expecting this to make $500 million worldwide. Indeed, some people thought/hoped it would be an outright failure.

 

[InCali]

Am I the only person who sees this film's performance as lowing the marvel stamp a bit? Don't get me wrong, this was a great film, but before Ant-Man, it looked like no new Marvel film was going to gross below $500 M worldwide.

Yes this film had a lower budget, yes it had low expectations, yes it a lot going against it...but let's call the film what it is. A modest success that has yet to hit the black.

Not everything Marvel does is going to hit a home run (though I think AM did just "fine"). Those are unrealistic expectations. Ant-Man was also about introducing another interesting (IMO one of the more interesting) characters to MCU and setting the scene for the future. If you can do that and make money at the same time, why not? I'm sure Marvel thought this through before deciding to go forward. GotG probably set unrealistic expectations in the minds of some.

EDIT: Saying it has yet to hit black after barely two weeks of release (and frankly, it's probably pretty close to break even as I write) with China, Japan, and other markets left to open sounds like you could be talking about just about any relatively high budget movie ever made (maybe 100M +??). Remove China from other BO successes, give them 16 days of release and see if they are in the black. I suspect most aren't in the black after 16 days of release.

 

[GL's Light]

There were people who thought/hoped Ant-Man would fail. On the other hand, there were people who thought/hoped that no Marvel film would now make less than $200 million domestic and $600 million worldwide. Both were wrong. But Ant-Man will end up as a substantial success.

 

[InCali]

There were people who thought/hoped Ant-Man would fail. On the other hand, there were people who thought/hoped that no Marvel film would now make less than $200 million domestic and $600 million worldwide. Both were wrong. But Ant-Man will end up as a substantial success.

I thought neither. I probably overestimated how well AM would do at the box office. I figured in excess of 500M WW, but, for some reason, the poll didn't seem to want to accommodate me. Haven't figured out why it's missing 500-600M. Seems like kind of a big gap to me.

I thought it would do about 10M better opening weekend.

 

[InCali]

IMDB has Ant-Man opening in China on 9/18. Does anyone know if that's confirmed?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

IMDB has Ant-Man opening in China on 9/18. Does anyone know if that's confirmed?

As far as I know, nope. Marvel has announced it will be released in China but the Chinese govt hasn't given it a date yet (Pixar is in the same boat with Inside Out). I'm actually hoping the 18th isn't accurate because that would be just five days after Minions opens in China.

 

[Mike5575]

There were people who thought/hoped Ant-Man would fail.

Like who? Black Widow fans? Well, haters can go back where they came from. Ant-Man is a success.

 

[InCali]

Like who? Black Widow fans? Well, haters can go back where they came from. Ant-Man is a success.

There's this weird phenomenon going around that I don't understand. It seems like there are Fox comic book fans that don't like MCU/Disney and some Marvel fans who don't like DC and vice versa and so on and on.

Personally, I just want to see cool, fun movies. The ONLY reason I wouldn't want a DC or Marvel (or any) movie make money is if it sucks. I can't bring myself to root for Crapformers, for example and wish it would either change hands or go away. It's okay to have your biases, but it seems like some people just want studio X to fail. Don't get that one.....why wouldn't you want to see a cool Ant-Man movie (which it was). I saw the same thing with GotG.....another flop by Marvel.

 

[Docker2.0]

You know why people want F4 to fail though. They want that property back at Marvel because Fox really doesn't care about it. They just want money for it. I think most Marvel Zombies will admit they are fine with Xmen being at Fox because they are basically their own universe but F4 fit perfectly in the MCU. I don't get the Marvel/DC thing though. That is childish as Arad.

 

[InCali]

You know why people want F4 to fail though. They want that property back at Marvel because Fox really doesn't care about it. They just want money for it. I think most Marvel Zombies will admit they are fine with Xmen being at Fox because they are basically their own universe but F4 fit perfectly in the MCU. I don't get the Marvel/DC thing though. That is childish as Arad.

For myself, I'd like to see the FF with Marvel because I think they'd do a better job with the property and I really really want to see a killer FF movie. X-Men I'm not as worried about because I think Fox has done a pretty good job with them (esp the first/last two). If they can make a good movie, cool, keep the property. I still wonder how X-Men will fare when Jackman does leave. I think he's kind of been the glue that holds everything together. We'll see.

 

[Docker2.0]

For myself, I'd like to see the FF with Marvel because I think they'd do a better job with the property and I really really want to see a killer FF movie. X-Men I'm not as worried about because I think Singer has done a pretty good job with them (esp the first/last two). If they can make a good movie, cool, keep the property. I still wonder how X-Men will fare when Jackman does leave. I think he's kind of been the glue that holds everything together. We'll see.

Fixed it for you.

It's going to be a sight to see once Singer leaves how Fox handles it.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

There's this weird phenomenon going around that I don't understand. It seems like there are Fox comic book fans that don't like MCU/Disney and some Marvel fans who don't like DC and vice versa and so on and on.

Personally, I just want to see cool, fun movies. The ONLY reason I wouldn't want a DC or Marvel (or any) movie make money is if it sucks. I can't bring myself to root for Crapformers, for example and wish it would either change hands or go away. It's okay to have your biases, but it seems like some people just want studio X to fail. Don't get that one.....why wouldn't you want to see a cool Ant-Man movie (which it was). I saw the same thing with GotG.....another flop by Marvel.

I hate FOX-Men with a passion. I swore a solemn vow to never again financially support any Fax Marvel property after X3 and Origins. I have stuck to this. Now that's not to say I haven't seen all of the films but I do not go to the theater or give them money in any way. I thought First Class was pretty good and DoFP was decent, but I just don't feel they really understand the property to do it justice and they rely way too much on Jackman's Wolvie. Also the Channing as Gambit really pisses me off since he is so wrong for my fave X-Man. I am saying this as a fan of Channing too. I def want F4INO to bomb and bomb as hard as possible so the rights go back to Marvel, that's where they belong and the staple of characters they bring fits better in the MCU. As for the whole Marve vs DC thing, I always rib my DC friends but I am looking forward to their films. I do have my reservations because the last thing the genre needs is for any studios to start cranking out bad CBM's but besides a few idiot trolls here on the forums I have never seen anyone that takes it all that seriously.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

A little more info on overseas performance and release dates from boxoffice.com:

This weekend saw strong holds in Europe, highlighted by France (-29%), Spain (-36%) and Germany (-39%). Top grossing territories are the UK/Ireland ($19.9M), Mexico ($13.2M), Brazil ($10.9M), Russia ($10.5M), France ($9.7M), Taiwan ($9.4M), and Australia ($9.3M). Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man opens in Italy on August 12, South Korea on September 3 and Japan on September 19. It is awaiting a confirmed release date in China.

 

[GL's Light]

The weekend actual:

ANT-MAN took in $12.80M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $132.33M.

 

[InCali]

A little more info on overseas performance and release dates from boxoffice.com:

Wow. That sounds pretty strong. Is that uncommon for those countries? I'm not sure what the BO patterns are in other countries.

 

[InCali]

I hate FOX-Men with a passion. I swore a solemn vow to never again financially support any Fax Marvel property after X3 and Origins. I have stuck to this. Now that's not to say I haven't seen all of the films but I do not go to the theater or give them money in any way. I thought First Class was pretty good and DoFP was decent, but I just don't feel they really understand the property to do it justice and they rely way too much on Jackman's Wolvie. Also the Channing as Gambit really pisses me off since he is so wrong for my fave X-Man. I am saying this as a fan of Channing too. I def want F4INO to bomb and bomb as hard as possible so the rights go back to Marvel, that's where they belong and the staple of characters they bring fits better in the MCU. As for the whole Marve vs DC thing, I always rib my DC friends but I am looking forward to their films. I do have my reservations because the last thing the genre needs is for any studios to start cranking out bad CBM's but besides a few idiot trolls here on the forums I have never seen anyone that takes it all that seriously.

Hey DJ, why don't you stop holding back and tell us what you really think next time? t:

I see the Jackman thing the same way you do.

 

[InCali]

Fixed it for you.

It's going to be a sight to see once Singer leaves how Fox handles it.

That's true too. Sometimes we tend to focus a lot more on the people in front of the camera rather than behind the scenes people. Those behind the camera can be every bit as important. Thanks for the reminder.

The first movie I saw from Singer was The Usual Suspects and I was flat out BLOWN away.

 

[Lilbaz]

How does this compare to thor/cap first films? They both got sequels.

I think comparing it to GotG would be unfair as that was a big space film blockbuster. We hadn't had one in a while so people were interested.

 

[JKKS085]

How does this compare to thor/cap first films? They both got sequels.

I think comparing it to GotG would be unfair as that was a big space film blockbuster. We hadn't had one in a while so people were interested.

It's playing pretty much like CATFA dom with similar holds despite a much smaller opening. It will probably finish 6-8% behind its 176M gross.
It's doing much better os though and there's a decent chance that it could exceed Thor's ww gross before the end of its run.
And that's on Marvel's smallest production budget yet (130M) meaning that Ant-Man is probably going to be more profitable for the studio than both CATFA and Thor.
Now when it comes to sequel opportunities there are other parameters and Marvel's plate is pretty much full up until 2019 (even though they coumd still schedule a third film that year).

 

[superion]

I hate FOX-Men with a passion. I swore a solemn vow to never again financially support any Fax Marvel property after X3 and Origins. I have stuck to this. Now that's not to say I haven't seen all of the films but I do not go to the theater or give them money in any way. I thought First Class was pretty good and DoFP was decent, but I just don't feel they really understand the property to do it justice and they rely way too much on Jackman's Wolvie. Also the Channing as Gambit really pisses me off since he is so wrong for my fave X-Man. I am saying this as a fan of Channing too. I def want F4INO to bomb and bomb as hard as possible so the rights go back to Marvel, that's where they belong and the staple of characters they bring fits better in the MCU. As for the whole Marve vs DC thing, I always rib my DC friends but I am looking forward to their films. I do have my reservations because the last thing the genre needs is for any studios to start cranking out bad CBM's but besides a few idiot trolls here on the forums I have never seen anyone that takes it all that seriously.

I want all the Marvel properties back at Marvel eventually including X-Men that's why I will not see any Fox or Sony Marvel film anymore. Then I want the MCU to be rebooted starting with an Captain America and the Invaders movie set in WWII followed by the FF film introducing the modern MCU and than films for the Hulk, Thor, Spider-Man, Iron-Man, the X-Men and the Avengers.