Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN: $196.5M Overseas Total / $361.024M Global Total #AntMan

 

[InCali]

Do you think that ant man hurt itself by having swearing in it? In the uk it was classified a 12. So a lot of parents with younger children would have watched something else. I can only remember 2 times they swore in the film. Was it really necessary as it might have cost them a couple of $mill?

Now that you mention it, I remember wondering if that could hurt BO #s for people with young children. It was PG 13 (parental guidance; some material inappropriate for children under 13), but I'm not sure how closely people really pay attention to that sort of thing.

When my kids were about 6 and 8, I wasn't really concerned about PG 13, but other parents may be more sensitive to that sort of thing. Frankly, I figured my kids were hearing it at school. On the preview, they dubbed the cussing between Rudd and Douglas so hearing $#!t in the movie surprised me a little.

The bottom line is that I wasn't too worried too much about language and nudity of the PG 13 variety when my kids were younger. When my son, however, wanted to see Silence of the Lambs a couple years later, I gave him a flat "no". That movie creeped me out, gave me a dream I'll never forget, and I was an adult. I wasn't going to let a 10 year old watch it.

So, I guess you could say that in my family, we don't give a $#!t....I mean a stuff(ing) about PG 13. I noted a lot of families with young children (who seemed to enjoy it immensely) at each of the 3 showings I attended.

 

[InCali]

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN: $196.5M Overseas Total / $361.024M Global Total #AntMan

I love your posts (including the arithmetic and use of words ). They serve as a reminder about just how well people, in general, liked this movie. Getting to a 3x DOM multiplier is not a small feat and this one will do better than that. At this point, I can see another 15-20M from existing markets WW and when it hits Japan, SK, and China, it is entirely possible to have a 500M+ WW movie. (Which was what I wanted to put on the poll......Does anyone know why that was left off?? Just an oversight??)

Anyway, thanks for this.

 

[Docker2.0]

I'd be shocked if it hit $500M WW. When does it hit China? Dang it man! What's up with these long waits for movies to be released in other countries?! Putting out bootlegs has to hurt this thing.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Anyway, thanks for this.

Hey, I copy/paste tweets with the best of 'em.

I just get a continuing kick out of the fact this movie even exists. I liked the character as a kid but never, ever thought we'd get an Ant-Man movie. That we did and it's doing well restores just a little of my long-lost faith in humanity.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'd be shocked if it hit $500M WW. When does it hit China? Dang it man! What's up with these long waits for movies to be released in other countries?! Putting out bootlegs has to hurt this thing.

China is just coming to the end of a foreign film blackout period. I think Terminator just opened there this weekend. There's an unofficial release date of September 18 for Ant-Man, but neither China nor Disney has confirmed it. It would be a pretty crappy date as you have (if I recall correctly) Terminator, Pixels, Rogue Nation and Minions all opening in China between now and then.

 

[InCali]

I'd be shocked if it hit $500M WW. When does it hit China? Dang it man! What's up with these long waits for movies to be released in other countries?! Putting out bootlegs has to hurt this thing.

Why would that shock you? It looks to hit about, and probably over, $380 without the 2nd largest market in the world. And Japan, in particular, is also a major market. If it clicks, and i think there's a good chance it will, I could see it doing 120M+ combined. That doesn't look out of the question at all from where I'm sitting. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but that looks like it's on the table.

As far as the bootlegs go, I'm not "AS" worried about that. Sure, that could hurt it some, but I don't think it's going to have that much effect (though what I know about this could be hidden in a sock and you probably couldn't find it without turning it inside out). I'm a fan of 3D and, IMO, the 3D part of this was very important to this movie. If the OS market is as 3D crazy as I've read on this website, people are going to want to see the real deal in 3D and not some low quality version. I saw it in both and the 3D was really important to the film....maybe not "Hugo" (the best 3D I've ever seen) important, but very important.

 

[InCali]

China is just coming to the end of a foreign film blackout period. I think Terminator just opened there this weekend. There's an unofficial release date of September 18 for Ant-Man, but neither China nor Disney has confirmed it. It would be a pretty crappy date as you have (if I recall correctly) Terminator, Pixels, Rogue Nation and Minions all opening in China between now and then.

Maybe that wouldn't be so bad?? If AM opens after everything else has played, maybe that'll set it up for a good run??

Don't know much about this sort of thing, but it seems like a later release date could play in its favor; especially since there's nothing else but juxtaposed carp after they run through the movies you mentioned (not that even all of them are good).

MI:RN and Minions would give any movie a tussle. Hopefully they'd wait a couple weeks before releasing AM. MI isn't in 3D, but I think Cruise is pretty big OS; not sure about China in particular though.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It's opening after, for sure, but the releases are getting jammed together:

Rogue Nation Sep. 8
Minions Sep. 13
Pixels Sep. 15
Ant-Man Sep. 18 (maybe, not confirmed)

 

[InCali]

One thing I noticed this morning about AM. It's projected to be in 8th place at the BO in it's 6th week of release; which is pretty darn good. Beyond that, every, single movie that is in front of it has been in release at LEAST 2 weeks less and there's only 1 of those which is MI:RN (4th week in release). Outside of RN, only one movie has been in release 3 weeks less (The Gift and AM is hot on its heels).

While the above may be a little hard to follow, what it boils down to is that of the 7 movies in front of AM at this weekend's BO, 5 of them have been in release only 1 or 2 weeks and have been in release 4 or 5 weeks less than AM.

How's that for legs....

 

[InCali]

It's opening after, for sure, but the releases are getting jammed together:

Rogue Nation Sep. 8
Minions Sep. 13
Pixels Sep. 15
Ant-Man Sep. 18 (maybe, not confirmed)

Wow. They are really slamming them in there. I see what you mean. Maybe AM will be delayed by a week or so??? It would really help China's BO if they'd spread that out a little bit more. That seems like it would be hurting their theater owners as much as the studios/movies themselves.

EDIT: Maybe the lack of a release date means Disney is trying to negotiate a better release???

 

[InCali]

I wouldn't say it's lock to pass CATFA dom, however with another great hold this week end it's definitely within the ream of possibility. I'd be much more confident if Labor Day was next week end and not the week end after (Cap got a boost on its 7th week end, Ant-Man will get it on its 8th).
However AM is projected to do better on its 6th week end than Cap on its 5th so I wouldn't be surprised if it came ahead next week end even without the benefit of the Labor Day week end boost.

After the week end the gap between AM and CATFA should be down to around 4.2m.

I was thinking about how poorly CA played OS. First off, Captain America is probably going to be a pretty tough sell outside of.....America. AM, on the other hand, has all the (true) stuff people in other countries like to see. Specifically, corrupt U.S. government officials and business enterprises that would sell their own mother in order to make a profit. I'm not saying ALL of the above are corrupt, but we certainly know those people are there.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That what I'm hoping. Disney is spending $2 billion on a theme park in China so you'd think they have a little pull.

 

[rashad]

How's that for legs....

Crappy competition also helps.

 

[regnak]

Crappy competition also helps.

It started off against week 2 of minions which has kept a lot of theaters and hurt AM with families. If not for Minions AM would have likely gotten the $60 million opening it was projected for.

 

[kedrell]

If it can get to $460m WW(another $99m at this point) then 2015 will pass 2013 as the MCU's highest grossing year to date. That's entirely within the realm of possibility.

Only $77.5m left is needed for the MCU to cross the $9 billion WW mark. That WILL happen this year.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It started off against week 2 of minions which has kept a lot of theaters and hurt AM with families. If not for Minions AM would have likely gotten the $60 million opening it was projected for.

It also had the tail end of JW to contend with and Rogue Nation definitely took a bite out of it. But yeah, to rashad's point it didn't hurt that Pixels and Vacation were turds. Pixels especially could have hurt, so a vote of thanks to Adam Sandler. Never change, Adam, never change.

 

[kedrell]

Both Pixels and Fant4stic were dangerous for it and their bombing helped considerably.

 

[InCali]

Crappy competition also helps.

That's true, but you still have to have a good movie. Crappy competition didn't help FF that much (prolly cause it WAS the crappy competition LOL).

 

[InCali]

I think we can safely say that, overall, AM didn't have that stiff competition. Sure, there were some strong movies vying for the same audience, but that's always going to be the case. Not every movie around you is going to do the Fantastic Flop. 2 or 3 of them, is a big boost. 2 or 3 blockbusters can kill you.

 

[kedrell]

It certainly wasn't stiff competition given the time of year this was.

 

[chamber-music]

China really doesn't want foreign films getting a big foothold in the country which is why they slam Hollywood releases together or have them open on the same day.

The Marvel brand is pretty big in China and Ant-Man is the only superhero of the Hollywood bunch being released so it will do ok in China I imagine.

 

[InCali]

China really doesn't want foreign films getting a big foothold in the country which is why they slam Hollywood releases together or have them open on the same day.

The Marvel brand is pretty big in China and Ant-Man is the only superhero of the Hollywood bunch being released so it will do ok in China I imagine.

That's interesting. I didn't know that. The differences in how things are handled in China as opposed to here in the states always sort of blows my mind. The whole idea of some sort of regulatory body stopping the distribution of a film not made in the US seems utterly, well, foreign to me. I realize that most of the big moneymaker movies are US based, so that doesn't enter into the picture, but, even if it did, I just don't see a US governmental agency saying "OK, one month, that's it. We're pulling the movie". I think people would go nuts.

I'm not ragging on anyone. It's just a very different, difficult to grasp, idea for me.

 

[kedrell]

That's interesting. I didn't know that. The differences in how things are handled in China as opposed to here in the states always sort of blows my mind. The whole idea of some sort of regulatory body stopping the distribution of a film not made in the US seems utterly, well, foreign to me. I realize that most of the big moneymaker movies are US based, so that doesn't enter into the picture, but, even if it did, I just don't see a US governmental agency saying "OK, one month, that's it. We're pulling the movie". I think people would go nuts.

I'm not ragging on anyone. It's just a very different, difficult to grasp, idea for me.

Just the difference between a communist market like China's and a free market like in the USA.

 

[InCali]

Just the difference between a communist market like China's and a free market like in the USA.

I don't know that much about the Chinese economic system these days. I do know it has changed and there is a drift towards "free market" principles although the government is basically the major share owner in large conglomerates.

The level of governmental control seems odd to most of us in the US (and other countries). Lack of oversight also comes with a price. Witness the meltdown in the US 8 years ago. That probably didn't have to happen and wouldn't have happened if there had been someone minding the (oversight) store.