Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[InCali]

Ant-Man actually gained a little over Wednesday yesterday, hauling in $363,707 to take it just over $166.1 million domestic. Still in a healthy 1,690 theaters this weekend.

What did FF do? Where did you find this. I couldn't. Nevermind. Just found it.

 

[kedrell]

Deadline says $757k which is dead in the middle of the range I expected for it($675k-$860k) and amounts to a 108% bump from Thursday. I'm guessing a $1.25m-$1.5m Saturday and around a $750k Sunday for between a $2.75m-$3m weekend(again, this falls right in line with prior expectations if true).

 

[InCali]

Deadline says $757k which is dead in the middle of the range I expected for it($675k-$860k) and amounts to a 108% bump from Thursday. I'm guessing a $1.25m-$1.5m Saturday and around a $750k Sunday for between a $2.75m-$3m weekend(again, this falls right in line with prior expectations if true).

You're frelling awesome. Wish I could pick your brain (at least the part that calcs this stuff out t: ).

 

[InCali]

Deadline says $757k which is dead in the middle of the range I expected for it($675k-$860k) and amounts to a 108% bump from Thursday. I'm guessing a $1.25m-$1.5m Saturday and around a $750k Sunday for between a $2.75m-$3m weekend(again, this falls right in line with prior expectations if true).

Any word on how FF did? Where they ranked numerically on Friday? Too low to be on a list? I thought it would probably finish out of the top 15 this weekend.

 

[bubbadoom]

Good news - Ant Man passed 50 Shades of Grey on Friday - who says size matters...?

And the third FF movie has yet to catch the third Insidious movie - ouch...

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Any word on how FF did? Where they ranked numerically on Friday? Too low to be on a list? I thought it would probably finish out of the top 15 this weekend.

Not quite. Boxoffice.con has it at 15:

15 Fantastic Four (2015) $1,475,000 -60% 1,675 -906 $881 $52,438,098 4 Fox

Here's Ant-Man for comparison:

10 Ant-Man $2,700,000 -33% 1,690 -326 $1,598 $168,832,526 7 Disney

It should catch up to Cap1 next weekend.

 

[JKKS085]

$3.05M for the week end down 25% from last week. $169.19M dom. $199.8M OS, $369.99M WW.

OS holdovers are pretty much done at this point (the film grossed $3.3M OS last week).
It should get another 11/12M dom at least (especially with Labor Day week end coming up next week). Without Japan/South Korea/China it's probably gonna gross around the $385M mark.

That would leave $65M to get from these 3 markets to gross $450M, $115M to get to $500M WW.

Anyways, Ant-Man is going to be the highest grossing solo cbm origin movie for a character not named Spider-Man, Superman or Iron Man. That is just crazy.

 

[TeeKay]

Good news - Ant Man passed 50 Shades of Grey on Friday - who says size matters...?

And the third FF movie has yet to catch the third Insidious movie - ouch...

 

[JKKS085]

Gap with CATFA is down to 2.4M after 45 days of release.
It's gonna get bigger after Monday numbers are reported because of CATFA's inflated Labor Day Monday on its 46th day of release.
If Ant-Man doesn't catch on with CATFA next week end the gap is surely gonna fall around/under 500k after Labor Day week end.

 

[InCali]

$3.05M for the week end down 25% from last week. $169.19M dom. $199.8M OS, $369.99M WW.

OS holdovers are pretty much done at this point (the film grossed $3.3M OS last week).
It should get another 11/12M dom at least (especially with Labor Day week end coming up next week). Without Japan/South Korea/China it's probably gonna gross around the $385M mark.

That would leave $65M to get from these 3 markets to gross $450M, $115M to get to $500M WW.

Anyways, Ant-Man is going to be the highest grossing solo cbm origin movie for a character not named Spider-Man, Superman or Iron Man. That is just crazy.

The last two weeks have been crazy good holds (each at about 75%). I would think that those 3 countries will EASILY be above $65M (even with the crazy financial situation). 115M isn't out of the question.

FF is another story. All things considered it had a mild drop this weekend; only dropping about 55% (OK, I did say "all things considered......" ). I would never have dreamed in my wildest dreams that Shaun the Sheep might pass FF in a daily or weekend box office tally, but I think there's a real chance that will happen.

 

[InCali]

$3.05M for the week end down 25% from last week. $169.19M dom. $199.8M OS, $369.99M WW.

OS holdovers are pretty much done at this point (the film grossed $3.3M OS last week).
It should get another 11/12M dom at least (especially with Labor Day week end coming up next week). Without Japan/South Korea/China it's probably gonna gross around the $385M mark.

That would leave $65M to get from these 3 markets to gross $450M, $115M to get to $500M WW.

Anyways, Ant-Man is going to be the highest grossing solo cbm origin movie for a character not named Spider-Man, Superman or Iron Man. That is just crazy.

So you think it's pretty much a lock to pass Thor's 181M DOM? Though Thor might not really be considered an origin movie per se.

 

[JKKS085]

So you think it's pretty much a lock to pass Thor's 181M DOM? Though Thor might not really be considered an origin movie per se.

Unless Marvel pulls it from theaters too early, it's going to do $180M+.
And when I was talking about the best grossing origin movies I meant worldwide and not just dom.

The slightly optimistic (but not unrealistic scenario) is as follow: Ant-Man's gonna do $850/900K this week. It's going to be just around/above 170M before next week end. Next week end's probably gonna look like 3/3.1M for the 3-days, 3.8/4M for the 4 days putting it's total at about 174M dom (or maybe slightly under). After its 53rd day of release CATFA went on grossing an additional 3.1M before the end of its theatrical run. Ant-Man's daily numbers should be something like 50% ahead of CATFA's at this point so it can realistically gross another 6.2M or so (maybe more). It's just gonna take a few better holds (which is not unrealistic because it's already playing in more theaters than CATFA) and it could definitely pass Thor.

 

[Tymminator]

Ant-man is firmly well planted as a MCU tent-pole.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That would leave $65M to get from these 3 markets to gross $450M, $115M to get to $500M WW.

It would take something very unusual to miss $450 million and $500 million is definitely doable. Asia has been the one place Ant-Man seems to have clicked. In every market I've been able to find comps for its matching or exceeding Guardians' numbers from last year:

Guardians / Ant-Man
HK $3.3 / $6.9
Malaysia $5.8 / $6.4
Philippines $5.3 / $5.3
Singapore $4.7 / $4.5
Thailand $3.4 / $3.2

I haven't been able to find a GotG number for Taiwan but it was reported that Ant-Man passed Guardians' total in 11 days. Last figure I have for Ant-Man in Taiwan is $9.2 million.

Here's how GotG did in the three upcoming markets:
China $96.5
SK $10.0
Japan $9.5

So if it just equals Guardians it will top $500 million.

 

[InCali]

It would take something very unusual to miss $450 million and $500 million is definitely doable. Asia has been the one place Ant-Man seems to have clicked. In every market I've been able to find comps for its matching or exceeding Guardians' numbers from last year:

Guardians / Ant-Man
HK $3.3 / $6.9
Malaysia $5.8 / $6.4
Philippines $5.3 / $5.3
Singapore $4.7 / $4.5
Thailand $3.4 / $3.2

I haven't been able to find a GotG number for Taiwan but it was reported that Ant-Man passed Guardians' total in 11 days. Last figure I have for Ant-Man in Taiwan is $9.2 million.

Here's how GotG did in the three upcoming markets:
China $96.5
SK $10.0
Japan $9.5

So if it just equals Guardians it will top $500 million.

I hadn't looked into the details, but my sense was that AM was performing well in the Asian market generally. Thanks for the breakdown.

 

[Comic Book Guy]

Is there word about Ant-Man in China yet?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Not yet.

 

[InCali]

Not yet.

That might be a good thing. I'd like to see it delayed until later Sept/Early Oct.

 

[InCali]

Ant-Man stayed in the top 10 for this weekend just behind Jurassic World. I think that it will remain there next weekend passing Jurassic World which got a bunch of IMAX showings (was that just for this week or next weekend also). I also think Ant-Man may pass The Gift next weekend; although that will be close. Next to Ant-Man, The Gift has had probably the best holds of those movies in the top 10. The only new wide release this weekend is Transporter.

Man, what a dismal string of releases. Can you imagine what the FF box office would be if there was ANY new competition (SOC was about it)......

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend actuals are in. Ant-Man gained about $20k over initial estimates to $3,073,116. That gives it a domestic total of $169,205,642 and edges it over the $369 million WW mark to $369,005,642. (All #'s per boxoffice.com.)

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I guess by the end of its global run, if China announces that damn release date for when they'll release Ant-Man, Ant-Man will make $450M, enough to go above Thor and push the MCU past $9 billion worldwide.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$9 billion WW for the MCU will happen.

Probably also worth noting that Ant-Man is now only about $1.6 million away from passing Cap1 WW.

 

[InCali]

I guess by the end of its global run, if China announces that damn release date for when they'll release Ant-Man, Ant-Man will make $450M, enough to go above Thor and push the MCU past $9 billion worldwide.

If China is in the mix, 450M is a deadbolt lock. 475 prolly is too.

 

[InCali]

Weekend actuals are in. Ant-Man gained about $20k over initial estimates to $3,073,116. That gives it a domestic total of $169,205,642 and edges it over the $369 million WW mark to $369,005,642. (All #'s per boxoffice.com.)

And kept it in #8 for the weekend (same as last weekend) with a drop of less than 25%. That's the best hold of any movie that took in at least 1.5M (edging out Minions). I think my guess that it would remain in the top 10 until the weekend after Memorial Day is still in play.

 

[InCali]

$9 billion WW for the MCU will happen.

Probably also worth noting that Ant-Man is now only about $1.6 million away from passing Cap1 WW.

10B will also. It's just a matter of when (next year); not if. My guess is CA:CW will do the trick. I think people will see it as sort of an Avengers movie as opposed to a straight up Captain America movie (which, for obvious reasons, doesn't always draw that well in some other countries).