Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[InCali]

Since I had predicted $3.75m for the 4-day I'd say this was right down the line accurate.

What do you figure the daily DOM tallies to be this week (T-Th)?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Since I had predicted $3.75m for the 4-day I'd say this was right down the line accurate.

Yup, you had it nailed. Buy yourself a cigar! t:

 

[SomeOldGuy]

FWIW the poster who tracks China releases on the BOT boards says it will release there October 16, which would apparently be a favorable date, if a late one. I guess we'll see if that gets confirmed anytime soon.

 

[kedrell]

what do you figure the daily dom tallies to be this week (t-th)?

$600k

 

[kedrell]

Yup, you had it nailed. Buy yourself a cigar! t:

I quit smoking over a year and a half ago after 20 years of trying to quit. I have no desire to resume the habit.t:

 

[SomeOldGuy]

China date confirmed:

@ChinaBoxOffice: #AntMan will be released in China on Friday, October 16. @AntMan @DisneyStudios #ChinaBoxOffice http://t.co/4odky3tizF

 

[InCali]

China date confirmed:

@ChinaBoxOffice: #AntMan will be released in China on Friday, October 16. @AntMan @DisneyStudios #ChinaBoxOffice http://t.co/4odky3tizF

That's a good thing. Right? Does it being so late hurt it? Are there other "big" releases scheduled around then?

I think it's going to do really, really well in China. Now that this is official, I think 500M is just about a lock. Soon, we'll see just how high it can go.

Also, maybe a rubber cigar is in order??

EDIT: I wonder if Disney ended up having more influence than we thought due to the joint venture in China???

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'd go with a bubble gum cigar myself. t:

So far my understanding is that there's no other big Hollywood picture opening on the 16th. There will be several local productions plus the animated Little Prince from France. So far the closest announced Hollywood competition is Inside Out, which opens on the 6th.

I've no idea how being so late will impact it, if at all.

 

[InCali]

I'd go with a bubble gum cigar myself. t:

So far my understanding is that there's no other big Hollywood picture opening on the 16th. There will be several local productions plus the animated Little Prince from France. So far the closest announced Hollywood competition is Inside Out, which opens on the 6th.

I've no idea how being so late will impact it, if at all.

Sounds like a positive development to me.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

No big surprise, Ant-Man drops big after the holiday weekend, just $189,392 for Tuesday. Korea added another $622k on the 9th, putting its total there at $11.25 million.

 

[Web-Head]

No big surprise, Ant-Man drops big after the holiday weekend, just $189,392 for Tuesday. Korea added another $622k on the 9th, putting its total there at $11.25 million.

I contributed to that pretty funny that Ant-Man is still in theaters and Fantastic 4 isn't, haha.

 

[JKKS085]

No big surprise, Ant-Man drops big after the holiday weekend, just $189,392 for Tuesday. Korea added another $622k on the 9th, putting its total there at $11.25 million.

That's just 42% down from last week which is actually a decent hold.
It's 54th day is about 2.5 times bigger than CATFA's ($189K/$74K). If it keeps that ratio against CATFA until the end of its run, it's definitely beating Thor's 181M.

 

[kedrell]

Yes, I just did a comparison with Cap1 as a model, adjusting for the proportionate differences in their dailies and AM should make another $8m from this point on which would just put it $1m beyond Thor1. Not enough to pass PP2 from this year though unless something changes in it's favor beyond that model. It only needs an extra $1m to match PP2 so I'll continue to hope that happens. But at this point the limit looks to be around $184m. Would have loved for it to find another $7m+ beyond that and beat last year's TMNT movie but that's a serious long shot at this point to the point of being wildly unrealistic.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I love how I can always count on you guys to crunch the numbers and keep me updated well after all the other people move on to the next Marvel film

 

[InCali]

I love how I can always count on you guys to crunch the numbers and keep me updated well after all the other people move on to the next Marvel film

I know, right? Kedrell and OldGuy pretty much rock. I gotta keep up on their posts when movies come out that they follow.

 

[InCali]

Has anyone noticed that there seem to be a LOT of weekend warrior Ant-Man fans? There are a lot of movies that do better business during the week and then come the weekend, Ant-Man passes them. I wonder why that is. Maybe it's more popular with audiences who are old enough to have jobs and can't easily get to the theaters during the week or they have kids who want to see it and the weekend is a convenient time??? It definitely seems to pick up more during the weekend than a lot of its competitors.

 

[kedrell]

I love how I can always count on you guys to crunch the numbers and keep me updated well after all the other people move on to the next Marvel film

What can I say? I love applied mathematics and I love the MCU.

 

[kedrell]

Has anyone noticed that there seem to be a LOT of weekend warrior Ant-Man fans? There are a lot of movies that do better business during the week and then come the weekend, Ant-Man passes them. I wonder why that is. Maybe it's more popular with audiences who are old enough to have jobs and can't easily get to the theaters during the week or they have kids who want to see it and the weekend is a convenient time??? It definitely seems to pick up more during the weekend than a lot of its competitors.

Yes, for a long time Minions has been running just ahead of Ant-Man in the weekdays yet Ant-Man comes out ahead on the weekends.

 

[InCali]

Yes, for a long time Minions has been running just ahead of Ant-Man in the weekdays yet Ant-Man comes out ahead on the weekends.

Yes. And now with some movies that were released after Ant-Man. I think The Gift and Hitman. Jurassic was following that also I believe on the re-release to IMAX theaters.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I love how I can always count on you guys to crunch the numbers and keep me updated well after all the other people move on to the next Marvel film

Well, I gotta get my post count up somehow! t: I do admit to finding box office watching kind of fun. I'm sure it absolutely bores some people, but hey, different strokes and all that.

Wednesday's domestic take was $136,695. Korea did another $520k, putting Ant-Man at $11.8 million there heading into the weekend.

 

[InCali]

Well, I gotta get my post count up somehow! t: I do admit to finding box office watching kind of fun. I'm sure it absolutely bores some people, but hey, different strokes and all that.

Wednesday's domestic take was $136,695. Korea did another $520k, putting Ant-Man at $11.8 million there heading into the weekend.

Your other option would be to act like me and just blather on endlessly.

FF just got passed by Mistress America in the dailies and is a nose ahead of Dope. How's that for a headline?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Your other option would be to act like me and just blather on endlessly.

FF just got passed by Mistress America in the dailies and is a nose ahead of Dope. How's that for a headline?

I'm so disappointed to find that a movie called "Mistress America" isn't some kind of 50 Shades of Grey/Captain America mashup.

 

[kedrell]

What do you figure the daily DOM tallies to be this week (T-Th)?

$600k

Looking like I guessed high. It's more likely to be around $450K. That'll still put it at $174.5m heading into the weekend. I think at least $2m is do-able which would put it in a dead heat with Cap1 by the end of this weekend. Monday or Tuesday will see TFA fall.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$129,381 yesterday domestic, just over $900k for Friday in Korea. Drop in Korea versus last Friday is about 43% which bodes well. If that holds all weekend Ant-Man should do another $5 million+ there.

 

[InCali]

$129,381 yesterday domestic, just over $900k for Friday in Korea. Drop in Korea versus last Friday is about 43% which bodes well. If that holds all weekend Ant-Man should do another $5 million+ there.

5M + over the weekend? What do you think the total might be? I noted a couple of movies that opened around 9M and they did in the mid to high 20s total. Does that seem like a reasonable goal.....asks the guy who knows nothing about Korean box office.........