Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Comic Book Guy]

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice

#ChinaBoxOffice ANT-MAN earned est. $17M on Saturday. China's 2-day total is $29.8M. Opening weekend est. ~$44M.

In china, it will make $120m or more if it has normal legs here after.

Great stuff

 

[Tymminator]

It's going to A little over 450M before the weekend is over, 500M is a lock.

 

[Flint Marko]

Wow, now that's great news.

 

[Tymminator]

And it hasn't hit the dollar theaters yet in the states, so a few more million domestic will be a nice cherry on top.

 

[Vincanws]

Hey, I'd love to be wrong.

500 m would be beautiful.

Get loving...

 

[SomeOldGuy]

And it hasn't hit the dollar theaters yet in the states, so a few more million domestic will be a nice cherry on top.

It's still puffing along in Japan, too. Should be around $10 million total there after the weekend.

 

[kedrell]

If my math is right (always suspect) per reports it would be around $2.08 billion.

$2.15 billion

You were close enough though, IMO. This obviously is production budgets alone since they never report marketing budgets and there are other factors such as product placement and other things that can offset the costs by a considerable margin but those are rarely reported either. So using the standard 2X of the production budget to get into the black, after $4.3 billion all the rest is basically profit. Figuring that a ballpark of $9.1 billion will be where they are at when Ant-Man is completely tapped out, that Disney should have covered the $4 billion they bought Marvel for already and be a few hundred million $ in the black already with everything else from here on out simply adding to that black in their ledger.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Marvel_Cinematic_Universe_films#Box_office_performance


And this Fortune magazine article from about a week ago(10/08/2015) has further interesting things to say:

http://fortune.com/2015/10/08/disney-marvel/

One analyst said that by the time it was finished with The Avengers, Iron Man 3 and the Captain America and Thor sequels, Disney had probably paid for the acquisition of the entire company[by that point].

We tend to forget that they are making money on more than just whatever box office the movies bring in.

 

[Flint Marko]

Anyone who grew up loving superheroes has to admit that what Marvel and Disney have done together is insanity. There is a movie called "Ant-man" about a guy who shrinks and talks to ants; it grossed half a billion worldwide, received critical acclaim, and spawned a sequel. That alone is impressive, and they made it look easy.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

It's going to A little over 450M before the weekend is over, 500M is a lock.

Hahaha! Suck it haters!

 

[First Avenger]

Anyone who grew up loving superheroes has to admit that what Marvel and Disney have done together is insanity. There is a movie called "Ant-man" about a guy who shrinks and talks to ants; it grossed half a billion worldwide, received critical acclaim, and spawned a sequel. That alone is impressive, and they made it look easy.

Not according to Fox fanboys. :P

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ERCboxoffice: I'M HUGE IN CHINA: Marvel's ANT-MAN blew up China with $43.2M this weekend--2nd largest Disney/Marvel 3-day behind AVENGERS 2.

@BoxOffice: ANT-MAN: $275.9M Overseas Total / $454.6M Global Total #AntMan

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

$2.15 billion

You were close enough though, IMO. This obviously is production budgets alone since they never report marketing budgets and there are other factors such as product placement and other things that can offset the costs by a considerable margin but those are rarely reported either. So using the standard 2X of the production budget to get into the black, after $4.3 billion all the rest is basically profit. Figuring that a ballpark of $9.1 billion will be where they are at when Ant-Man is completely tapped out, that Disney should have covered the $4 billion they bought Marvel for already and be a few hundred million $ in the black already with everything else from here on out simply adding to that black in their ledger.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Marvel_Cinematic_Universe_films#Box_office_performance


And this Fortune magazine article from about a week ago(10/08/2015) has further interesting things to say:

http://fortune.com/2015/10/08/disney-marvel/



We tend to forget that they are making money on more than just whatever box office the movies bring in.

And Disney has MCU movies planned up till 2028.

They will have made quadruple their investment by then.

 

[ironman_rick]

Wow......Awesome performance in china. $450M in the bag now...

Hopefully another $50M from china in a week or 2 (movies tend to fall off pretty quickly there though).

 

[Raiden]

It's going to A little over 450M before the weekend is over, 500M is a lock.

Not bad for a "flavor of the week".

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Damn it's great to see it blow up in China! I just want to laugh and point at all the idiots that said this was a failure

 

[kedrell]

MCU = $9,017,651,580 and counting WW

 

[kedrell]

Not according to Fox fanboys. :P

Or DC fanboys.

 

[The Whizzer]

Gotta love how a film with a troubled production starring a C-list superhero that doesn't have much of a fanbase is absolutely killing it at the box office. At this point it seems like Marvel could make a movie starring The Whizzer and it would still stumble into a half billion dollar WW box office take.

 

[TeeKay]

Not bad for a "flavor of the week".

 

[Lilbaz]

And people think the market is oversaturated.

 

[kedrell]

Gotta love how a film with a troubled production starring a C-list superhero that doesn't have much of a fanbase is absolutely killing it at the box office. At this point it seems like Marvel could make a movie starring The Whizzer and it would still stumble into a half billion dollar WW box office take.

I expect to see him when they eventually do an Invaders movie.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

And people think the market is oversaturated.

The true test will be next year with around 7 superhero movies.

This year only had 3.

 

[kedrell]

Yeah but there were also like 10 superhero/comic book TV shows at least and I think the idea is that it all feeds the same sense of saturation.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I though this take on the saturation issue was on point.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?list=PLMJZetYQ7l2oqLLGdwCrVZrGEV36E2e2B&v=aFsEVF2pkfc

 

[MyDudeSpidey]

The sequel should make a lot more. Glad it's doing good numbers in China right now, though.