Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[spiderman2]

Do you mean the international numbers or the worldwide OW number? The latter is kind of useless because release schedules vary so much. As for openings in those foreign markets, I think comparing them to other MCU flicks (as I did above) is more useful than TDK, HP, or SW since Marvel's films all tend to have similar legs. Also, if it is looking to open better than any previous MCU film (in an apples-to-apples comparison), then it is going to compare favorably to everything (except TFA which is in a league of its own).

I mean the OW OS numbers? I was just wondering how that compares to other big movies and TFA while it did great OS over all its USA numbers where the really crazy thing considering it brook the USA over all record by like 230m or something.

 

[spiderman2]

To be fair Deadline put $200-230M for the OS OW in the title, while $250M was a high outlier. Either way, that would be a fantastic start. In the same territories, BvS opened to about $110M so CW would be doing much better in the same markets. If it hits $230M this weekend, $1B overseas is easily within reach.

Wait so you are telling me that this movie may make over twice as much has Bvs did OS on its OW in comparison? Wow!

 

[Gerontophobe]

Wait so you are telling me that this movie may make over twice as much has Bvs did OS on its OW in comparison? Wow!

Exactly, it is going to be huge if it hits that. (I should point out the $230M is a little higher than the actual weekend number since that includes Wednesday and Thursday for the markets that open early; the BvS number takes this out.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I mean the OW OS numbers? I was just wondering how that compares to other big movies and TFA while it did great OS over all its USA numbers where the really crazy thing considering it brook the USA over all record by like 230m or something.

It would compare favorably but like I said, it is apples-to-oranges since the market composition varies so much. Here's the chart you're probably looking for. $230M would be about the same as SM3 (8th all-time) but that had a wider opening.

 

[spiderman2]

It would compare favorably but like I said, it is apples-to-oranges since the market composition varies so much. Here's the chart you're probably looking for. $230M would be about the same as SM3 (8th all-time) but that had a wider opening.

While that is confusing because with that chart 230 would be like 26m less then Bvs. I thought you said something about it making like twice has much OW OS not 26m less?

 

[brandeezy89]

I don't think you can compare weekend OS numbers for BvS with this movie. BvS opened in every OS territory at one time.

 

[Gerontophobe]

While that is confusing because with that chart 230 would be like 26m less then Bvs. I thought you said something about it making like twice has much OW OS not 26m less?

I don't think you can compare weekend OS numbers for BvS with this movie. BvS opened in every OS territory at one time.

Correct. I broke down what BvS opened to in the same territories that CW is opening its first weekend, so that way it is an apples-to-apples comparison. It is very unlikely CW will make more than BvS opened to overseas this weekend because it isn't opening in a lot of big markets (most importantly China) like BvS did.

 

[moped]

Looks like this just broke the opening day record in South Korea.

 

[samsnee]

I don't think you can compare weekend OS numbers for BvS with this movie. BvS opened in every OS territory at one time.

I'm sure some will.

 

[JOE]

I'm sure some will.

It's not a fair comparison, which is why those numbers are skewed. Only 2 numbers matter, the DOM and OS totals after it's run. WW as well obviously.

 

[samsnee]

I know that but I can see some people who will try to say that BvS had a better opening. We fans are the only ones who pay attention to the smaller details.

 

[third3ye]

Doesn't matter, the uneducated fans can celebrate about BvS global opening, but that'll be short lived because by the 2nd weekend, I expect CW to have outgrossed BvS over the same period. Final cume won't even be a fair fight.

 

[Johnglen]

I know that but I can see some people who will try to say that BvS had a better opening. We fans are the only ones who pay attention to the smaller details.

Meh , the numbers will speak for themselves in the end. This will crush BvS , there will be no comparison in the final bo results .

Oh amazing opening is South Korea looking at 100 million $ final bo number there, AOU did 82.4 .

 

[WilliamK99]

Correct. I broke down what BvS opened to in the same territories that CW is opening its first weekend, so that way it is an apples-to-apples comparison. It is very unlikely CW will make more than BvS opened to overseas this weekend because it isn't opening in a lot of big markets (most importantly China) like BvS did.

BvS also has the distinct pleasure of having the worst multiplier of any movie opening up big opening weekend, this would have been negated had they done a staggered OS release...Instead the movie looks like it dropped like a brick...

 

[TalismanRing]

BvS also has the distinct pleasure of having the worst multiplier of any movie opening up big opening weekend, this would have been negated had they done a staggered OS release...Instead the movie looks like it dropped like a brick...

Not just looks like... it did drop like a brick.

It's O/S multiplier will be about 2.2 It held up slightly better O/S than the U.S. where it will struggle it hit a 2 multiplier.

In some O/S countries it held OK, like Mexico but it had about a 1.6 multiplier in China and Russia. Considering the WOM having it open up everywhere the same date was a very good idea.

 

[InCali]

Not just looks like... it did drop like a brick.

It's O/S multiplier will be about 2.2 It held up slightly better O/S than the U.S. where it will struggle it hit a 2 multiplier.

In some O/S countries it held OK, like Mexico but it had about a 1.6 multiplier in China and Russia. Considering the WOM having it open up everywhere the same date was a very good idea.

I don't think it WILL hit a 2.0 multiplier. It will need in excess of 12M to get there. It might get about 1.5M this week and maybe another 3M next weekend, then probably under 1M for next week. Then CA:CW opens and the curtain is going to drop like that brick you were talking about.

CA:CW looks like it is just going to SHRED. I think it is easily going to pass AoU DOM and WW and maybe The Avengers (WW). I don't think JW (WW) is out of reach either. I think I dramatically underestimated this movie at the BO (what else is new?).

 

[Iceman]

Lovely figure without the big markets excluded.

 

[third3ye]

Oh amazing opening is South Korea looking at 100 million $ final bo number there, AOU did 82.4 .

That's really impressive considering AoU was filmed in S. Korea and their press tour made a stop there IIRC. Such factors always give that territory a boost, and CW is looking to outperform AoU without it. I don't believe the CW press tour made a stop in S. Korea, I think Singapore and China were the only stops in Asia.

 

[Chesterfield]

Anyone have a link to the S.Korea BO news?

 

[Darkraid]

That's really impressive considering AoU was filmed in S. Korea and their press tour made a stop there IIRC. Such factors always give that territory a boost, and CW is looking to outperform AoU without it. I don't believe the CW press tour made a stop in S. Korea, I think Singapore and China were the only stops in Asia.

Evans has a huge fanbase in Korea. He did a Korean movie.

 

[InCali]

Evans has a huge fanbase in Korea. He did a Korean movie.

I'd forgotten about that. I really liked Snowpiercer and wish it had gotten a wider release in the US.

"Captain America" doesn't play that well in some other countries. I get more of an Avengers - Civil War vibe from the marketing; even though the Russos were clear that this was a story being told from Caps perspective.

The box office is going to be bigger than T-Rump's blow dryer.

EDIT: Still only one negative review on RT. That's pretty rare. And an 8.3 rating (higher than Zootopia or Jungle Book).

 

[TalismanRing]

Anyone have a link to the S.Korea BO news?

Here's the link. http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...ox-office-2016-bvs-dawn-of-collapse/?page=367

It a enormous record breaking OD but it's still too early to project legs. But I think it will 10 million admissions is very possible.

 

[Mysteryman]

Looks like this just broke the opening day record in South Korea.

And so it begins.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...ome-marvels-biggest-blockbuster/#5fbb48b044fa

 

[Chesterfield]

Here's the link. http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...ox-office-2016-bvs-dawn-of-collapse/?page=367

It a enormous record breaking OD but it's still too early to project legs. But I think it will 10 million admissions is very possible.

Thank you.