Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[parkerpete]

FF doesn't need a decade if Marvel Studios can take over and incorporate them to MCU.

One trailer with the words 'Marvel Studios' and a shot of a comic-accurate Doctor Doom, and that movie is in the black.

 

[Hero_of_Time98]

One trailer with the words 'Marvel Studios' and a shot of a comic-accurate Doctor Doom, and that movie is in the black.

I agree, that sounds AWESOME. As for the FF coming to the MCU, well Fox has the rights until 2021 if I'm not mistaken. I don't see Fox just outright selling the rights to Marvel but I see two scenarios.

1. Fox doesn't do another FF movie, since the last three movies have been horrible bombs both critically and at the box office. The FF brand from Fox is tainted and I don't think Fox investors want to see them finance another FF movie that will lose them $100 million+. The rights will just revert back to Marvel by 2021, just in time for Phase 5 to start in pre-production.

2. Fox does another FF movie, not wanting to make money off of it, but to keep it out of Marvel's hands. Look, we all know an FF MCU movie would be a success. I have faith in Feige and his team. I bet Fox does that, too. They may be stubborn enough to make another FF movie, even if it doesn't perform well, just to keep the rights. Remember, Fox and Marvel, actually Fox and Disney, despise one another. I'm sure Fox isn't too please still that they lost Star Wars to Disney. So I'm sure they are a lot of sour apples at Fox who could care less about the Mouse House. It wouldn't surprise me one bit that Fox will try to keep the rights just to spite Disney.

Of those two scenarios, obviously the second one is more dramatic but I have to believe that the executives at 20th Century Fox aren't interested in doing another FF movie. Even though the FF rights also have a lot of cosmic characters associate with them. I think in 5 years, we'll be hearing about an FF movie from Marvel Studios in production once the rights revert. Fox will have X-Men forever and I think that's fine; for now at least. I enjoy the X-Men movies but I don't like the FF movies but I know I would watch one if Marvel was in charge, not Fox.

 

[Comic Book Guy]

inb4 C. Lee asks why we're talking about FF in a Captain America box office thread.

 

[hafizbat]

It's not confirmed that any of them are ending their runs, but there will also be BP, Captain Marvel, Dr Strange, Ant-Man and GOTG. Then there are properties like The Inhumans, The Runaways etc.

Right now FF is a poisoned well of a property thanks to Fox. It needs maybe a decade to rest before it can be revived. Maybe the 5th Phase and by then rights will have reverted.

I wonder who's up next for the MCU treatment after all these new kids are integrated.

As sad as I'll be when Phase 3 is over and the original Avengers are (probably) done, it's also exciting to see how much Marvel can do with all these lesser known characters. They "rolled out the B-list" back in 2008 and turned them into the biggest icons in today's world. The sky is the limit.

In a dream scenario, BP could become Marvel's Batman. Captain Marvel could be the next WW. GotG was already an instant classic, and a whole trilogy is in the works. Dr. Strange could be a totally fresh and mysterious type of movie, different from any other CBM. I don't see Ant-Man becoming huge, but his movies will be fun crowd-pleasers.

 

[Cretaceous Clay]

I don't see Ant-Man becoming huge

 

[Flint Marko]

One trailer with the words 'Marvel Studios' and a shot of a comic-accurate Doctor Doom, and that movie is in the black.

I would lose my mind.

 

[parkerpete]

I agree, that sounds AWESOME. As for the FF coming to the MCU, well Fox has the rights until 2021 if I'm not mistaken. I don't see Fox just outright selling the rights to Marvel but I see two scenarios.

1. Fox doesn't do another FF movie, since the last three movies have been horrible bombs both critically and at the box office. The FF brand from Fox is tainted and I don't think Fox investors want to see them finance another FF movie that will lose them $100 million+. The rights will just revert back to Marvel by 2021, just in time for Phase 5 to start in pre-production.

2. Fox does another FF movie, not wanting to make money off of it, but to keep it out of Marvel's hands. Look, we all know an FF MCU movie would be a success. I have faith in Feige and his team. I bet Fox does that, too. They may be stubborn enough to make another FF movie, even if it doesn't perform well, just to keep the rights. Remember, Fox and Marvel, actually Fox and Disney, despise one another. I'm sure Fox isn't too please still that they lost Star Wars to Disney. So I'm sure they are a lot of sour apples at Fox who could care less about the Mouse House. It wouldn't surprise me one bit that Fox will try to keep the rights just to spite Disney.

Of those two scenarios, obviously the second one is more dramatic but I have to believe that the executives at 20th Century Fox aren't interested in doing another FF movie. Even though the FF rights also have a lot of cosmic characters associate with them. I think in 5 years, we'll be hearing about an FF movie from Marvel Studios in production once the rights revert. Fox will have X-Men forever and I think that's fine; for now at least. I enjoy the X-Men movies but I don't like the FF movies but I know I would watch one if Marvel was in charge, not Fox.

Well I don't want to incur the wrath of C. Lee for being off-topic, so let me just say that the huge box office bump of the next Sony/Marvel Spider-Man film off of the positive vibes of Civil War will probably be enough to convince Fox that they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by reaching a similar sharing deal with the FF properties. I mean, why just let the rights revert back when you can still get something for them? And why make ANOTHER reboot in less than a decade, when the last one was a legendary flop and you could add the MCU boost to your franchise and access to their creative team?

I'm saying it now: After Civil War destroys the box office and single-handedly revives Spidey as a film franchise, Fox will reach a deal to share FF. This will happen not long after the receipts for 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' come in.

 

[TalismanRing]

That's great for Fox but Marvel and Disney doesn't need it. Why settle for a deal where they'll have to share profits and success means never getting the rights back vs just waiting them out and getting it all?

Disney made the deal with Sony because Spider-Man is their flagship character who sells $1b+ worth of merchandise a year that Disney fully owns and profits from. The SM IP hurting hurts their merchandising profits. Sony was still making SM movies that made money - albeit much less than they wanted, ergo licensing wasn't reverting back any time soon. Adding SM to their films lifts those films revenues and also increases merchandising profits.

That's a completely different scenario than with FF & Fox. Fox lost so much money they'd have a lot of difficulty trying to convince their board and shareholders to ever make another. F4 merchandise makes comparative pennies for Marvel. Why should Marvel give up one of the coveted spots on their film schedule to make less than they would producing a film they wholly own and profit from? 100% of The Inhumans is better for them than 50% of the F4 provided they could even get 50% of the film profits while having to deal with another studios creative decisions, budgeting and marketing ideas and decisions. It's much better for Disney to wait it out even if it's not what F4 fan want to hear.

 

[parkerpete]

That's great for Fox but Marvel and Disney doesn't need it. Why settle for a deal where they'll have to share profits and success means never getting the rights back vs just waiting them out and getting it all?

Disney made the deal with Sony because Spider-Man is their flagship character who sells $1b+ worth of merchandise a year that Disney fully owns and profits from. The SM IP hurting hurts their merchandising profits. Sony was still making SM movies that made money - albeit much less than they wanted, ergo licensing wasn't reverting back any time soon. Adding SM to their films lifts those films revenues and also increases merchandising profits.

That's a completely different scenario than with FF & Fox. Fox lost so much money they'd have a lot of difficulty trying to convince their board and shareholders to ever make another. F4 merchandise makes comparative pennies for Marvel. Why should Marvel give up one of the coveted spots on their film schedule to make less than they would producing a film they wholly own and profit from? 100% of The Inhumans is better for them than 50% of the F4 provided they could even get 50% of the film profits while having to deal with another studios creative decisions, budgeting and marketing ideas and decisions. It's much better for Disney to wait it out even if it's not what F4 fan want to hear.

Disney won't have to 'wait it out' because FOX has NO REASON to wait it out. They will want to reach a deal rather than simply give up the film rights for nothing, and like you said, they don't really want to be in the FF business anymore. Marvel knows the potential of the characters and will want more properties to develop once Phase 3 ends. Trust me, Marvel would much rather have the FF on their slate than 'Inhumans'.

Remember, GotG will probably still be going strong after Phase 3, and FF unlocks Galactus, Silver Surfer, Skrulls...

 

[Spiderdevil]

I wonder who's up next for the MCU treatment after all these new kids are integrated.

As sad as I'll be when Phase 3 is over and the original Avengers are (probably) done, it's also exciting to see how much Marvel can do with all these lesser known characters. They "rolled out the B-list" back in 2008 and turned them into the biggest icons in today's world. The sky is the limit.

In a dream scenario, BP could become Marvel's Batman. Captain Marvel could be the next WW. GotG was already an instant classic, and a whole trilogy is in the works. Dr. Strange could be a totally fresh and mysterious type of movie, different from any other CBM. I don't see Ant-Man becoming huge, but his movies will be fun crowd-pleasers.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Well I don't want to incur the wrath of C. Lee for being off-topic, so let me just say that the huge box office bump of the next Sony/Marvel Spider-Man film off of the positive vibes of Civil War will probably be enough to convince Fox that they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by reaching a similar sharing deal with the FF properties. I mean, why just let the rights revert back when you can still get something for them? And why make ANOTHER reboot in less than a decade, when the last one was a legendary flop and you could add the MCU boost to your franchise and access to their creative team?

I'm saying it now: After Civil War destroys the box office and single-handedly revives Spidey as a film franchise, Fox will reach a deal to share FF. This will happen not long after the receipts for 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' come in.

LOL, like Marvel/Disney would care about that, at present GoGT is much more popular than F4, F4 are toxic, Marvel is gonna gain nothing from a shared deal

Things were different with Spidey, even the worst Spidey movie made close to 750M, he is the only Marvel hero who stands alongside Batman and Superman in terms of worldwide recognition, plus Sony's relationship with Marvel was always great, Feige produced most of the Spider-man movies and Avi Arad is pals with both the groups, meanwhile Fox and Disney are arch-rivals, twice they have made a sucker F4 movies just to keep the rights, that won't bode well with Marvel

 

[Spiderdevil]

Disney won't have to 'wait it out' because FOX has NO REASON to wait it out. They will want to reach a deal rather than simply give up the film rights for nothing, and like you said, they don't really want to be in the FF business anymore. Marvel knows the potential of the characters and will want more properties to develop once Phase 3 ends. Trust me, Marvel would much rather have the FF on their slate than 'Inhumans'.

Remember, GotG will probably still be going strong after Phase 3, and FF unlocks Galactus, Silver Surfer, Skrulls...

Ironically, no one gives a **** about F4 anymore, all the tug of war is for the said Villains who will benefit other Marvel movies

 

[Zarex]

Disney won't have to 'wait it out' because FOX has NO REASON to wait it out. They will want to reach a deal rather than simply give up the film rights for nothing, and like you said, they don't really want to be in the FF business anymore. Marvel knows the potential of the characters and will want more properties to develop once Phase 3 ends. Trust me, Marvel would much rather have the FF on their slate than 'Inhumans'.

Remember, GotG will probably still be going strong after Phase 3, and FF unlocks Galactus, Silver Surfer, Skrulls...

Unless you are thinking that Disney - DISNEY! - handed over X-Men TV rights to FOX for a minority stake in "Legion" and "Hellfire", there's an excellent chance that the deal has already been made.

 

[JOE]

What's the rumour going around with Fox and Disney?

 

[Zarex]

What's the rumour going around with Fox and Disney?

On 10/14/15 Marvel and FOX announced that they were working together to put two television shows based on X-Men characters onto the FOX and FX Networks. Marvel gave up their exclusive control over Marvel branded television programming, strengthened FOX's control over the X-Men character family and increased competition at a time of peak super-hero on TV and film. Some of us suspect that there is no way Disney would agree to this deal unless FOX signed off on an early release of the FF character family rights.

 

[JOE]

On 10/14/15 Marvel and FOX announced that they were working together to put two television shows based on X-Men characters onto the FOX and FX Networks. Marvel gave up their exclusive control over Marvel branded television programming, strengthened FOX's control over the X-Men character family and increased competition at a time of peak super-hero on TV and film. Some of us suspect that there is no way Disney would agree to this deal unless FOX signed off on an early release of the FF character family rights.

Wow, had no idea that was going on. There's no way Fox is going to go through with a sequel for FF, so why wouldn't they sell to Marvel or at least make a deal. With Cap, Thor and Iron Man all on their way out (in the next 3-5 years) it would be HUGE if they could scoop up the FF rights.

 

[Mysteryman]

So, how about that CW box office?
Any predictions or thoughts for today?

 

[Mysteryman]

After seeing the new Spidey TV spot, does that lead anybody to adjust their predictions at all?

 

[JOE]

After seeing the new Spidey TV spot, does that lead anybody to adjust their predictions at all?

I voted in the 1.2-1.3B predicting it would fall somewhere between IM3 and AoU... However, I think this movie has the potential to pass AoU. Heck, even the first Avengers movie if the legs are strong.

The only thing that worries me is Apocalypse coming out after CW's third week.

 

[Superhero 101]

And don't forget Alice 2

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I'm wondering what the walk ups for this movie will be like. I usually don't pay attention when it comes to presales for Marvel films because usually Marvel films don't do big business with presales. So I never thought presales were a great indicator for predicting box office for these movies. I remember when the first Avengers came out and lurking on some box office forums, people were surprised by the record breaking box office the movie had because the presales weren't mind blowing. The walk ups were amazing though.

 

[InCali]

I wonder who's up next for the MCU treatment after all these new kids are integrated.

As sad as I'll be when Phase 3 is over and the original Avengers are (probably) done, it's also exciting to see how much Marvel can do with all these lesser known characters. They "rolled out the B-list" back in 2008 and turned them into the biggest icons in today's world. The sky is the limit.

In a dream scenario, BP could become Marvel's Batman. Captain Marvel could be the next WW. GotG was already an instant classic, and a whole trilogy is in the works. Dr. Strange could be a totally fresh and mysterious type of movie, different from any other CBM. I don't see Ant-Man becoming huge, but his movies will be fun crowd-pleasers.

I'm a little late to the show, but think CW can do about 1.4B. I'm really looking forward to DS this year. I thought the trailer was awesome. I'm hoping we can get FF back in the Marvel fold and believe that a "good" FF movie will do very well. I'd love to see them with the Inhumans and agree that the villains would be a great + for MCU.

 

[Solaire]

Is this film a lock for a billion? Yeah the other event film was too but won't get there, how helpful can reviews and word of mouth be?

 

[InCali]

I'm wondering what the walk ups for this movie will be like. I usually don't pay attention when it comes to presales for Marvel films because usually Marvel films don't do big business with presales. So I never thought presales were a great indicator for predicting box office for these movies. I remember when the first Avengers came out and lurking on some box office forums, people were surprised by the record breaking box office the movie had because the presales weren't mind blowing. The walk ups were amazing though.

I like to go to Friday early matinees so I almost never buy my tix early. I also like to sit way up front so I usually never have a problem getting the seat I want. I'll prolly just stroll into the theater and get my tix. One exception was when TFA came out last Dec. I had to buy a 5am showtime about a month early and just snuck in before all the good seats were gone. That was insanity. I'm going to check the Chinese Theater IMAX now and see what's up.

 

[InCali]

Is this film a lock for a billion? Yeah the other event film was too but won't get there, how helpful can reviews and word of mouth be?

Very. It doesn't mean you will or won't like a movie, but when the "other" movie gets 28% and there's only 1 bad review (intentionally done I think) for CW, it absolutely affects the box office. With the reviews and WOM this is getting, it's going to do very, very well. There's also a lot of confidence coming from the studio.