Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[third3ye]

Is this film a lock for a billion? Yeah the other event film was too but won't get there, how helpful can reviews and word of mouth be?

What the 'other film' has shown is, reviews and WOM play a HUGE role in getting your film over the billion mark, no matter how strong the IP is. Even then, I don't think CW is a lock for a billion, more like a very strong likelihood. I've heard through the grapevine the studio estimate for CW was under a billion, but studios always sandbag their estimates. I haven't seen any updated WWBO tracking yet though.

 

[InCali]

What the 'other film' has shown is, reviews and WOM play a HUGE role in getting your film over the billion mark, no matter how strong the IP is. Even then, I don't think CW is a lock for a billion, more like a very strong likelihood. I've heard through the grapevine the studio estimate for CW was under a billion, but studios always sandbag their estimates. I haven't seen any updated WWBO tracking yet though.

Yeah. I've noted that Marvel always seems to play low. Then when the numbers come in, it "exceeded" your expectations. I don't blame them. Everybody does it. I think a billion is a done deal. CA doesn't play very well OS, but this is as close to the Avengers as you can get without being an Avengers movie. Throw in Spidey and there you have it.

 

[Mysteryman]

I think CW owns at least the first two weeks in. May.
I do not know what comes out on the 20th.
Assuming that they are on top for three weeks, CW will face a battle with X_MEN -Apocalypse on the 27th.

 

[third3ye]

Yeah. I've noted that Marvel always seems to play low. Then when the numbers come in, it "exceeded" your expectations.

This is an industry-wide practice - under promise and over deliver. Rival studio estimates and outside analysts balance this out, former aiming high (for competitive reasons) and the latter being more realistic. I usually rely on analysts, but so far I haven't seen any early tracking news outside of DOM OW.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I think CW owns at least the first two weeks in. May.
I do not know what comes out on the 20th.
Assuming that they are on top for three weeks, CW will face a battle with X_MEN -Apocalypse on the 27th.

The third weekend will be competitive. Neighbors 2 and Angry birds are both opening and either/both could hit $50M. For CW, its best case is probably $60M but $50M seems more likely, so it may be very close.

For Memorial Day weekend, it might actually break $50M for the four-day but should be well behind XMA and Alice. If CW opens to $200M+, it could be past $500M domestically by the end of the holiday weekend.

 

[WilliamK99]

My prediction is 1.7 billion, I am basing it upon the fact that I want it to double BvS WW gross... I doubt it would get that high but it would be hilarious if it did....Beating BvS is a given at this point, annihilating it is what I desire...

 

[JOE]

My prediction is 1.7 billion, I am basing it upon the fact that I want it to double BvS WW gross... I doubt it would get that high but it would be hilarious if it did....Beating BvS is a given at this point, annihilating it is what I desire...

Crazy to think that it might actually stand a chance of doing those numbers if the legs are THAT good. The reviews are very strong.

 

[Mysteryman]

I just want CW to do well.
No need for it to annihilate any other film.

 

[TalismanRing]

Tracking updated:

‘Captain America: Civil War’ Set To Smash $190M+ At Domestic B.O.
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-opening-records-1201744563/

O/S first w/e (minus China, Russia and a few other countries) $220-250m
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-international-box-office-preview-1201744295/

 

[JOE]

Tracking updated:

‘Captain America: Civil War’ Set To Smash $190M+ At Domestic B.O.
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-opening-records-1201744563/

O/S first w/e (minus China, Russia and a few other countries) $220-250m
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-international-box-office-preview-1201744295/

 

[InCali]

My prediction is 1.7 billion, I am basing it upon the fact that I want it to double BvS WW gross... I doubt it would get that high but it would be hilarious if it did....Beating BvS is a given at this point, annihilating it is what I desire...

You ought to be ashamed of yourself. Piling on a movie when it's down.

 

[WilliamK99]

You ought to be ashamed of yourself. Piling on a movie when it's down.

Scroll back to around Feb and see how crazy BvS fans were acting and how vicious they were...This is karma at its finest...

 

[Gerontophobe]

Tracking updated:

‘Captain America: Civil War’ Set To Smash $190M+ At Domestic B.O.
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-opening-records-1201744563/

O/S first w/e (minus China, Russia and a few other countries) $220-250m
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-international-box-office-preview-1201744295/

To be fair Deadline put $200-230M for the OS OW in the title, while $250M was a high outlier. Either way, that would be a fantastic start. In the same territories, BvS opened to about $110M so CW would be doing much better in the same markets. If it hits $230M this weekend, $1B overseas is easily within reach.

 

[Gerontophobe]

My prediction is 1.7 billion, I am basing it upon the fact that I want it to double BvS WW gross... I doubt it would get that high but it would be hilarious if it did....Beating BvS is a given at this point, annihilating it is what I desire...

That does seem unlikely. What is possible: CW passing BvS WW by the end of its first weekend domestically (second internationally), which would require hitting the high end of Deadline's projected range. That would be mildly amusing to me.

 

[InCali]

Scroll back to around Feb and see how crazy BvS fans were acting and how vicious they were...This is karma at its finest...

I was just joking anyway. There are some on either side of the aisle (DC and MCU) who act kind of crazy. I'm definitely more of a Marvel guy since I grew up reading FF, TA, DS, DD, SM, etc. That being said, I really want some good DC movies too. I'm in the minority in that I thought BvS was okay, but I'm TOTALLY stoked for CW and think it's going to be great. All the signs are there; critical acceptance, WOM, etc. You can "feel" the buzz and the tracking proves it. I think I guessed 1.4-1.5 and hope I'm low.

So, yeah, I want CW to do GREAT, but don't have anything against BvS. It just wasn't THAT good.

 

[InCali]

That does seem unlikely. What is possible: CW passing BvS WW by the end of its first weekend domestically (second internationally), which would require hitting the high end of Deadline's projected range. That would be mildly amusing to me.

That would be frelling awesome. I want it to blow by 1B and fast.

 

[third3ye]

If CW can open above $200m OS without China, that is one helluva number.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Some more notes on the OS projections: Basically, they're awesome. I went through and totaled the OW numbers for past Marvel hits in the same markets. In the same suite, Avengers did $160M, IM3 $153M, and AoU $172M opening.

So if CW does land around $230M, it will be crushing and I don't see how it doesn't reach $1B just from international markets. If we assume Avengers-type legs (which I feel is reasonable given the early reviews and WOM), a $230M OW OS for CW would translate to >$800M just from those 30 markets. That doesn't include Russia, China, Italy, or another 36 markets. I think I've seriously underestimated its potential.

 

[JOE]

To be fair Deadline put $200-230M for the OS OW in the title, while $250M was a high outlier. Either way, that would be a fantastic start. In the same territories, BvS opened to about $180M so CW would be doing notably better overseas. If it hits $230M this weekend, $1B overseas is totally within reach as long as it does well in China.

BvS only had 166M OW.

 

[third3ye]

BvS only had 166M OW.

He meant $180m for those OS territories where CW is opening, not DOM. I was confused when I first read that too.

 

[Gerontophobe]

He meant $180m for those OS territories where CW is opening, not DOM. I was confused when I first read that too.

Sorry about that. Note that I reworked out what BvS did by going territory by territory (instead of just approximately) and it turns out my initial guess was way off. In the same markets that CW will open, BvS did only ~$110M so if CW does $230M it is doing way better than BvS.

 

[spiderman2]

What the 'other film' has shown is, reviews and WOM play a HUGE role in getting your film over the billion mark, no matter how strong the IP is. Even then, I don't think CW is a lock for a billion, more like a very strong likelihood. I've heard through the grapevine the studio estimate for CW was under a billion, but studios always sandbag their estimates. I haven't seen any updated WWBO tracking yet though.

Its a lock lol. Bvs is going to finish at like 900m or maybe a little less and that was with not just bad reception but tearable reception which caused it to drop off big time very fast. Yeah not a billion but it turned out to be like worst cause for that movie because of the reception. Just like a 50 RT score and it would have done a billion. I think this movie is a lock for at least like 1.1 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

Tracking updated:

‘Captain America: Civil War’ Set To Smash $190M+ At Domestic B.O.
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-opening-records-1201744563/

O/S first w/e (minus China, Russia and a few other countries) $220-250m
http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain-america-civil-war-international-box-office-preview-1201744295/

So like worse 410 WW OW with out china and a few other places? How would that compare to Bvs man? Did Bvs come out latter in china and a few other places to? Oh want it came out ever where on same day didn't it?

 

[spiderman2]

If CW can open above $200m OS without China, that is one helluva number.

Oh does that compare to other big movies like Star wars? Dark knight, Harry potter ect?

 

[Gerontophobe]

Oh does that compare to other big movies like Star wars? Dark knight, Harry potter ect?

Do you mean the international numbers or the worldwide OW number? The latter is kind of useless because release schedules vary so much. As for openings in those foreign markets, I think comparing them to other MCU flicks (as I did above) is more useful than TDK, HP, or SW since Marvel's films all tend to have similar legs. Also, if it is looking to open better than any previous MCU film (in an apples-to-apples comparison), then it is going to compare favorably to everything (except TFA which is in a league of its own).