The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Herolee10]

Well I'm definitely happy to see that this film is doing well that the B.O., especially more so than its predecessor.

Party hard folks!

 

[ironman_rick]

$600M will be an awesome achievement for Cap. I mean its already the biggest movie of 2014 and will stay this way until May.

Batman, Ironman & Spidey are in a league of their own at this moment. We have to wait for a few more years for CAP & Thor to reach this level.

 

[Suzanne78]

According to Deadline's Saturday update, Cap won Saturday w/an estimated $17.7 million, Rio 2 in second w/$15-16mil. approx.

http://m.deadline.com/2014/04/box-office-rio-2-captain-america-battle-for-no-1-oculus-runs-over-disappinting-draft-day/

 

[Ms. Marvel]

That's good news.

 

[JC00]

So with what could be a $40m domestic weekend and with what it may have done internationally since the last foreign box office update it's got to be close to $400m worldwide.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

It's apparently already past $400 m worldwide.

 

[TalismanRing]

It passed $400m WW on Friday. By Sunday it should be around $470m.

$600m WW is a given and $650+ is quite attainable since it's easily doing $400m OS.

 

[JC00]

Well then the box office numbers site I use is slow to update.

 

[TalismanRing]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice
CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER took in an estimated $41.4M this weekend. Domestic total now stands at $159.01M. #CaptainAmerica2

Take away the $10m Thursday nights and that's about a 51% drop. Reportedly as of Monday about 30% schools are out for Spring/Easter break - that should be reflected in higher weekdays.

Marvel's CAPTAIN AMERICA 2 scored $60.6M overseas this wknd, $317M total. Global cume is now $476M.

That's about where Thor 2 was and it opened earlier in China, Australia and Brazil

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

According to Box office mojo

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $159,006,000 33.4%
+ Foreign: $317,700,000 66.6%
= Worldwide: $476,706,000

 

[Ms. Marvel]

This is moving wayyy faster than I anticipated.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Rio 2 did $39.0M. Captain America is #1 again.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So it did retain it's number one spot because Rio had a lame Saturday increase. The drop is solid although it was only a little better than The Dark World's. Which is fine a 56% drop is good for this kinda film. It's doing fantastically overseas so far but I wonder how Spider-Man's roll out next week is going to effect it?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

It shouldn't have too much of a problem getting around $400 M OS. Especially since Spidey has a scattered release OS. It doesn't come out in China until May luckily.

 

[TalismanRing]

TWS just came off a $108m O/S week with a $60m w/e. Another $100m is pretty much assured. So $420m O/s seems like the minimum.

 

[rashad]

Nice numbers.

 

[Mysteryman]

So it did retain it's number one spot because Rio had a lame Saturday increase. The drop is solid although it was only a little better than The Dark World's. Which is fine a 56% drop is good for this kinda film. It's doing fantastically overseas so far but I wonder how Spider-Man's roll out next week is going to effect it?

if it truly is a 56%drop, I don't understand why the prospect of a 59% drop only three per cent difference was upsetting everybody so much
The Hulk had a drop in the 70s,TWS was not even close to that and was never going to be .
I am just trying to understand.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

if it truly is a 56%drop, I don't under why the prospect of a 59% drop only three per cent difference was upsetting everybody so much
The Hulk had a drop in the 70s,TWS was not even close to that and was never going to be .
I am just trying to understand.

People who are rooting on the film's success just wanted it to have the best drop possible. When a film opens with 90+mil I agree that a 59% second weekend drop isn't the end of the world. Now if it keeps dropping 55% that is a problem.

I remember when the first Hunger Games movie dropped 61% from a 152.5mil and thinking that the reactions were silly because once a movie opens to huge numbers it's more likely than not going to fall hard so it's dumb to look into those numbers too much. Yes sometimes drops like that mean mixed or bad word of mouth and sometimes drops like that mean that the film is just frontloaded.

I think the fear of the 59-60% drop for big openers is more of a psychological thing than anything else.

Well the film doesn't have to face a 150mil opener next weekend so it should definitely have a much better 3rd weekend drop than Thor had.

 

[ironman_rick]

It passed $400m WW on Friday. By Sunday it should be around $470m.

$600m WW is a given and $650+ is quite attainable since it's easily doing $400m OS.

Jesus....... TWS is a juggernaut.

 

[Raiden]

I'm glad TWS will retain its #1 spot this week. I wish the drop is softer but I guess it's unavoidable for blockbusters like this.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Why do blockbusters have big drops? (just out of curiosity)

 

[Mr. Dent]

^ Because they're front loaded.

$400m OS seems a lock, I'd say it can get to $420m. I'd say it's on pace for around $240-245m domestically. So it will end up a little bit better than Thor 2.

 

[TalismanRing]

The bigger they are they harder they fall.

There's a pent up demand and a rush to see factor with most and now with Thursday's basically being a 1/2 day starting at 7 or 8 pm and not just select midnights the 2nd w/e is really a drop from 3 1/2 days and not 3 days - so it's bigger % drop.

Legs across the board have been steadily decreasing over the last couple of decades. Since with more theaters and screens there's greater saturation the opening weekend now. A film can be in 4,000 theaters and on 8-10,000 screens. If a big film gets a three multiplier from the opening weekend it's an outlier like Iron Man or Avengers. Then there are the once every decade runs like Titanic or Avatar.

Compare and contrast to when Superman came out in 1978. It opened in 500 theaters and it's biggest expansion might have hit 800-1000 theaters before most were multi-plexes. It made less than 5% of it's total that opening w/e and I think remained #1 for 2-3 months from great WOM and limited seating. They also knew the film wasn't going to be on DVD or Netflix in 3 months.

 

[TeeKay]

Rio 2 did $39.0M. Captain America is #1 again.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Oh that makes sense.