The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]455763[/split]

 

[Mr. Dent]

Really eager to discuss this. No trailer yet and what not, but we have Redford on the cast and tons of other info. For now I'm predicting:

OW: $85m
DOM: $235m
INT: $310m
WW: $545m

 

[Dark Raven]

Yeah , some huge heavy hitters there!

How the heck is X-Men Origins: Wolverine so high up on that list with such a huge opening? It's number 12, which means that until November last year, it was actually number 10 on the list.

 

[PunyGod]

...

 

[Suzanne78]

How the heck is X-Men Origins: Wolverine so high up on that list with such a huge opening? It's number 12, which means that until November last year, it was actually number 10 on the list.

I remember the opening weekend was huge. My husband and I went to see it… and left feeling oddly empty

It was the next week that the ledge dropped out from under it

 

[kedrell]

Something I haven't seen anyone else address on here is that this is the film that will put the MCU in the #2 spot all time among franchises(unadjusted for inflation of course) up from it's current #3 spot. The MCU will overtake the James Bond/007 franchise as soon as CA:TWS gets to around the $500M WW mark. Only Potter is left to take down which between GotG and TA:AoU it'll happen for sure in 2015(even if it needs to add Ant-Man to make it happen, but I don't think A-M will be needed). So in 2015 the MCU will become the biggest franchise in history. Not bad for an upstart film company.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s#Highest-grossing_franchises_and_film_series

 

[TJByrum]

So how good is Cap doing right now?

 

[Mysteryman]

Even if that is the case, nothing remains permanent when it comes to box office placings .
Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves .

 

[Mysteryman]

So how good is Cap doing right now?

I believe the current estimate is 96.2 million.

 

[TJByrum]

I believe the current estimate is 96.2 million.

Well I read it's made a total of 303 million total so far. I was just confirming its truth or not, so has it made 303 million?

 

[Suzanne78]

So how good is Cap doing right now?

I'd say it exceeded expectations. The projections had it landing around $85-90, but then it upped to $90-95 right before it came out. It's now in the neighborhood of $96 million with 89% positive reviews on RT.

So basically, it smashed the April OW record by $10million, it's the sequel that has most improved on the original according to RT, and it only needs around $63million more dollars to exceed the total gross of the first Cap movie.

In other words, it's doing great!

ETA: Yes, $303m is the worldwide (DOM + Int'l) gross so far. So only needs about $67mil to best CA1. It should do that in a couple of days honestly, maybe by Wednesday/Thurs.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yes it's estimated worldwide total is 303mil.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

So is 600 million in the bag or do we not have enough info yet to make that assumption?

 

[Suzanne78]

So is 600 million in the bag or do we not have enough info yet to make that assumption?

Ehhhh… still need more info, especially the holds over the next few weeks.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So is 600 million in the bag or do we not have enough info yet to make that assumption?

I'd be surprised if it didn't make more than 600mil worldwide. Surely the word of mouth on the film will be good even overseas.

 

[Suzanne78]

Yeah. I don't know what would be considered a good "Hold" domestically for this movie? Sub 50% for sure, but between 50-55%?

Sorry, Joeyjojo, I read your post as $700mil. In my wildest dreams, but I don't think $700mil is happening LOL!

But yeah, it does seem to be on a good track overall toward $600. $400+mill overseas and $200+ domestic.

 

[NJCaliboi]

So is 600 million in the bag or do we not have enough info yet to make that assumption?

It's a good bet, but not exactly a sure bet at this point. It's as others have said the next weeks the picture will come more into focus. One thing for sure is that it's a bonafide hit!

Cap3 stocks has never been higher- it's actually looking like a real contender and moving the title into the league of the big boys. Very exciting for Marvel and Captain fans!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

50-55% would actually be considered pretty good or solid holds in North America for such a big opening weekend. Of course I'd like for it to drop less than 50%· The weekday numbers will give us an idea where it is headed.

 

[kedrell]

Even if that is the case, nothing remains permanent when it comes to box office placings .
Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves .

While true it matters whether we're talking about a closed franchise like HP or an open ended one like Bond or the MCU. Since the MCU is open ended I suspect it'll be some time till any franchise takes it's top spot once it beats HP next year. Bond doesn't make enough films fast enough to ever catch up again(very unlikely to at least) and that also goes for just about every other franchise as well. Marvel Studios's 2 films or more a year pace really gives them a nearly insurmountable advantage over other franchises.

 

[Mysteryman]

Yeah. I don't know what would be considered a good "Hold" domestically for this movie? Sub 50% for sure, but between 50-55%?

Sorry, Joeyjojo, I read your post as $700mil. In my wildest dreams, but I don't think $700mil is happening LOL!

But yeah, it does seem to be on a good track overall toward $600. $400+mill overseas and $200+ domestic.

Do we have any tracking on Rio2 yet?
It might give us an idea what to expect in terms of a hold for TWS .
Do we know how Rio did internationally ?

 

[Suzanne78]

Thank you Spidey! I'm only an amateur at B.O. predictions, so I appreciate the more knowledgeable among us sharing!

 

[spideymouse]

Do we have any tracking on Rio2 yet?
It might give us an idea what to expect in terms of a hold for TWS .
Do we know how Rio did internationally ?

It took the #1 spot just one week after Cap 2's premiere in the UK, I believe.

 

[kedrell]

A week ahead of its U.S. debut, Rio 2 added $22.2 million from 12 foreign markets. New territories included the U.K. ($4.7 million), Germany ($4 million) and Spain ($2.5 million). Across all three of those markets, Rio 2's debut was a step up from the original. The animated sequel has now earned $55.5 million.

There you go.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Something I haven't seen anyone else address on here is that this is the film that will put the MCU in the #2 spot all time among franchises(unadjusted for inflation of course) up from it's current #3 spot. The MCU will overtake the James Bond/007 franchise as soon as CA:TWS gets to around the $500M WW mark. Only Potter is left to take down which between GotG and TA:AoU it'll happen for sure in 2015(even if it needs to add Ant-Man to make it happen, but I don't think A-M will be needed). So in 2015 the MCU will become the biggest franchise in history. Not bad for an upstart film company.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s#Highest-grossing_franchises_and_film_series

Yeah, it's really awesome.

Even if that is the case, nothing remains permanent when it comes to box office placings .
Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves .

Okay? But we're not, in 2015 the MCU will by far be the highest grossing film franchise ever. Assuming AOU only makes as much as the first movie, which is conservative, it will blow past Harry Potter and will not look back. At the rate they're releasing movies and how much they gross, it's somewhat inconceivable that anything will be able to catch them anytime soon.

 

[kedrell]

I figure the MCU will collectively be at around $6.3 billion by the time CA:TWS ends it's run. Cap2 just needs another $325M WW to get it there, which will put it around the $630m WW mark.