The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

[Xeno]

Asia is going to be the big market for this film. There is already great WOM there, from reports I've read, which should translate into good business. It opens in China this week and will do very well there.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's too early to say where Winter Soldier will end up as we haven't seen how it's going to hold and open in other markets. As Suzanne says, I doubt Marvel are comparing Winter Soldier to anything else but The First Avenger. Winter Soldier is doing really well so far and much better than it's predecessor.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, too many big markets still to open to start truly comparing anything. Look at the latest Hobbit film. Quite disappointing in comparison, and then it opened in China and destroyed.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Think the gross ends up being $650m, just slightly more than TDW.

Right now I'd be really happy with anything over 600 m.

That's magic number.

Though it would be cool if beat Iron Man 2 (623 m).

That would mean the last four Marvel Studio productions were also their biggest hits.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cap 3 comes close to grossing a billion.

 

[Raiden]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cap 3 comes close to grossing a billion.

If Cap 3 can gross a billion, I don't see how they won't do everything to entice Evans to return for #4.

 

[Wildcard]

It all depends on how this does, & from the looks of things I'd say it'll do exceptional. Then, with AoU coming out before the inevitable Cap 3, if all turns out perfectly then he has every chance of becoming a billion dollar superhero.

I'm definitely pulling for him.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Let's see how this one tops out before we talk about the billion dollar club for Captain America 3. I'd love to see it, too. I just don't think that is likely. It's hard to make a billion at the BO. Plus, we still have to see how the Cap 3 vs BvS situation resolves itself, as well.

 

[flickchick85]

My final pre-release predictions:

Domestic OW: $95-110M
Domestic Total: $280M-310M
Overseas Total: $350-400M
Total: $630-710M

 

[Mysteryman]

I am going to stick with my 88_ 93 million prediction.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm going with 93/240mil for Winter Soldier. I've upped the multiplier to being close to The First Avenger. After all of my loud doubts, I decided to give it a run closer to First Avenger.

So I've got another question, would anyone be disappointed if Winter Soldier "only" matched The Dark World's opening weekend or opened with a little less? My 93mil prediction isn't that much higher than what Thor 2 opened with so I wouldn't be disappointed.

 

[flickchick85]

I'm going with 93/240mil for Winter Soldier. I've upped the multiplier to being close to The First Avenger. After all of my loud doubts, I decided to give it a run closer to First Avenger.

So I've got another question, would anyone be disappointed if Winter Soldier "only" matched The Dark World's opening weekend or opened with a little less? My 93mil prediction isn't that much higher than what Thor 2 opened with so I wouldn't be disappointed.

That would pretty much be on target with some of the tracking, so I wouldn't be disappointed. I just have this feeling it's going to over-perform, hence the higher prediction. But it's very possible it will simply hit TDW-like numbers.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

It's doing well in LA, Asia and UK. With very good word of mouth it should improve in other European countries. I hope it surprises us internationally.

 

[Mysteryman]

I'm going with 93/240mil for Winter Soldier. I've upped the multiplier to being close to The First Avenger. After all of my loud doubts, I decided to give it a run closer to First Avenger.

So I've got another question, would anyone be disappointed if Winter Soldier "only" matched The Dark World's opening weekend or opened with a little less? My 93mil prediction isn't that much higher than what Thor 2 opened with so I wouldn't be disappointed.

That wouldn't be too bad but , I would like to see TWS beat the record .

 

[T"Challa]

Final prediction

88 mill OW
230 mill DOM
380 mill INT'l

610 mill WW...some people may find this number disappointing, but in reality its pretty crazy for a Captain America movie

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Final prediction

88 mill OW
230 mill DOM
380 mill INT'l

610 mill WW...some people may find this number disappointing, but in reality its pretty crazy for a Captain America movie

I don't find it disappointing. I actually really hope it gets that. t:

 

[Mysteryman]

I just hope with all of the Box Office Craziness that is about to ensue that the Russos
Keep a high quality Story in mind for Cap 3.

 

[Mysteryman]

I don't find it disappointing. I actually really hope it gets that. t:

Yeah, but if I SEE SPIDEY is right about her 240 million domestic prediction wouldn't that be 620 million worldwide?

 

[Kalonthar]

Well, the my local theatres must be expecting some good business, because with the early screenings on Thursday between 8 pm and 11:40 pm and the 2 local theaters to me, they have 19 screenings.

 

[samsnee]

I hope the box office is huge but I think it's premature to start throwing around the billion word. Now if this had tragically been Redford's last movie (which I feel bad about even suggesting) I could see it as a possibility. But as is, the international market just isn't strong enough yet.

 

[Xeno]

I hope the box office is huge but I think it's premature to start throwing around the billion word. Now if this had tragically been Redford's last movie (which I feel bad about even suggesting) I could see it as a possibility. But as is, the international market just isn't strong enough yet.

Who here has suggested that CATWS is going to make $1 billion? I haven't seen any posts that come close to predicting that.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I hope the box office is huge but I think it's premature to start throwing around the billion word. Now if this had tragically been Redford's last movie (which I feel bad about even suggesting) I could see it as a possibility. But as is, the international market just isn't strong enough yet.

The billion word is only being used for Cap 3 which will be released after AoU in which Cap's popularity will most likely increase. So far the predictions for Cap 2 have been in the $500-700 million range.

 

[Suzanne78]

Major Theater Chain tracking for the 4 day:

mtc capt2 94.8 incl Thursday {nm}


Posted by: notfabio on Mar 31, 15:13

I forgot between RS and MTC, which one is considered more or less reliable. I like this number. A lot

 

[marcvader]

So 95 seems to be the over under as of now. Im going with under at 92 mil. I.hope other sites start giving their projections soon.

 

[Dark Raven]

I will say that it will be disgusting and pathetic if Cap 2 doesn't do as well as IM3 and Thor 2. It is easily one of the best comic book movies made and I would personally say it's the best MCU movie. However, just being critically acclaimed or well reviewed doesn't necessarily equate to astounding box office numbers. It would be sad though because it's everything that the other Phase 2 movies should have been.