The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Ms. Marvel]

^ Comparison with TASM? They were both origin films afterall and fans of this new franchise may want TASM to look like the better origin film.

 

[Mr. Dent]

So I predicted this to "only" make around $500m and thought TASM2 would make $800-900m. Go figure.

 

[JC00]

I don't expect AoU to do Avengers1 numbers domestic(I think TA2 will do something in the high $500M's DOM).

AoU will pass Titanic and threaten Avatar for all-time domestic.

 

[Mr. Dent]

No he's right, AOU will probably gross less domestic. I'd say mid 500s. What Avengers 1 did is likely the ceiling. it was the perfect mix of phenom and critical acclaim and something happening for the first time after people had been waiting on it for decades, similar to the first Spider-Man. AOU won't be able to match it, even if it's better.

 

[Donut]

Well if Captain America was gonna be defeated box office spot wise it might as well be by Kate Upton & her boobs Cameron Diaz who ?

 

[Docker2.0]

Well if Captain America was gonna be defeated box office spot wise it might as well be by Kate Upton & her boobs Cameron Diaz who ?

Kate Upton is hot but man is she overrated.

 

[Donut]

Kate Upton is hot but man is she overrated.

She defeated Captain America so she is worthy

 

[JC00]

No he's right, AOU will probably gross less domestic. I'd say mid 500s.

Go take a look at the sequel trends for the MCU, outside of Iron Man 2 all sequels have done better.

No reason not to believe that trend will continue especially for Avengers 2.

It will hit $650m-$750m

 

[Docker2.0]

She defeated Captain America so she is worthy

Again she's hot but she's nowhere near the hottest woman in the world. That goes to Kelly Divine.

Go take a look at the sequel trends for the MCU, outside of Iron Man 2 all sequels have done better.

No reason not to believe that trend will continue especially for Avengers 2.

It will hit $650m-$750m

I kind of think the Avengers 2 won't out gross the original. It was the perfect storm and never had been done before. I think it will make a billion but just don't see it out grossing the original. I'd love for it to out gross any either of Cameron's overrated movies but just don't see it. I think Avengers 3 will though.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Yeah that's an odd prediction. Everything we know about the MCU and cbms and recent box office history tells us it will make more not less. How much more is the real question.

 

[TalismanRing]

She defeated Captain America so she is worthy

The audience was 75% women. Just a guess - the overwhelming majority weren't going there to watch Upton on her breast.

 

[The Endless]

I see AoU going over 1.5 billion quite comfortably. All the solo films have had an increase since the first Avengers, pretty huge ones at that... why wouldn't the second Avengers film have an increase?

IM3 made 1.25 billion. Avengers Age of Ultron is going to sail past that, guaranteed.

 

[Tymminator]

I also think AoU will make more OS but less domestic, so it could still make more WW. Just IMHO. I would love to be wrong though and have it also make more domestic.

 

[Donut]

The audience was 75% women. Just a guess - the overwhelming majority weren't going there to watch Upton on her breast.

Surely the girls dragging their guys to it enjoyed them at least

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I feel like a box office Clairvoyant. Somehow I just knew that this film would be as critically and financially successful as it is. I also knew it would top Thor: The Dark World, despite people trying to convince me that Cap just isn't a popular enough character. I'm not surprised in the slightest.

As for AoU, It'll do better internationally than the first movie, and it'll come close to the first one domestically. Depending on the wow factor, it may match or even surpass the first one domestically.

Also, I think both Cap 3 and Thor 3 will make a billion. I mean c'mon, freaking Surtur.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I see AoU going over 1.5 billion quite comfortably. All the solo films have had an increase since the first Avengers, pretty huge ones at that... why wouldn't the second Avengers film have an increase?

IM3 made 1.25 billion. Avengers Age of Ultron is going to sail past that, guaranteed.

I think AoU will make the same or slightly less than Avengers domestically (it is a BO trend in the US for sequels to make less) but I see the OS totals going up.

 

[JC00]

I think AoU will make the same or slightly less than Avengers domestically (it is a BO trend in the US for sequels to make less)

Iron Man 3, Cap 2, and Thor 2 all disprove that sequels make less theory

 

[dalonewolf]

There is nothing bad ass about Gem. NOTHING!!!!!


I hope you are right. If it does, then there is a chance it doubles the originals Box office. Plus I hope it does because I really want WB to move that date. It really makes no sense for them to play this cat and mouse game.

You have me lost I never said anything about Gem
um talking about my dc big 3 shirt
not gem

 

[Docker2.0]

You have me lost I never said anything about Gem
um talking about my dc big 3 shirt
not gem

You said CBM. Gem is a CBM.

 

[spideymouse]

You said CBM. Gem is a CBM.

well... he said "superhero movie." Is Jem a superhero? I have very little familiarity with the property.

 

[Docker2.0]

well... he said "superhero movie." Is Jem a superhero? I have very little familiarity with the property.

I don't know. She has a comic book but she sucks though. I actually think her villains were better than her. It's going to bomb regardless.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Go take a look at the sequel trends for the MCU, outside of Iron Man 2 all sequels have done better.

No reason not to believe that trend will continue especially for Avengers 2.

It will hit $650m-$750m

You do know what a ceiling is right?

All those movies are in a completely different situation going into their sequels than A2. Avengers was the catalyst for increasing their gross, as it increases the amount of people aware of the franchises as there was still room to grow. A2 has very little room to grow domestically. It peaked out in the first film.

Iron Man 3, Cap 2, and Thor 2 all disprove that sequels make less theory

No, they don't, they're not the same situation.

 

[JC00]

You do know what a ceiling is right?

All those movies are in a completely different situation going into their sequels than A2. Avengers was the catalyst for increasing their gross, as it increases the amount of people aware of the franchises as there was still room to grow. A2 has very little room to grow domestically. It peaked out in the first film.

No, they don't, they're not the same situation.

I think it is funny that someone back in 2012 predicted it would make $700m domestically is fighting my opinion of it making between $650m-$750m

We're getting closer and closer to phase 2 so I'm wondering what everyone's predictions are for the movies' budgets and BO grosses are as a whole. Here's mine:

-IM3
Budget: 200M
Gross: 900M - 400M/500M OS

-Thor 2
Budget: 175M
Gross: 600M - 200M/400M OS

-Cap 2
Budget: 150M
Gross: 400M - 200M/200M OS

-GotG
Budget: 175M
Gross: 500M - 200M/300M OS

-A2
Budget: 250M
Gross: 1.6B - 700M/900M OS

 

[Wildcard]

Again she's hot but she's nowhere near the hottest woman in the world. That goes to Kelly Divine.

There's no such thing as hottest woman in the world, that's all relative to one's perspective.

I kind of think the Avengers 2 won't out gross the original. It was the perfect storm and never had been done before. I think it will make a billion but just don't see it out grossing the original. I'd love for it to out gross any either of Cameron's overrated movies but just don't see it. I think Avengers 3 will though.

AoU has every chance of outgrossing the original. I don't think it'll outgross Avatar or Titanic (unfortunately) but it could get pretty close to TA. Truthfully, it all depends on the product itself. If it delivers, it'll sell wildly, as will any film. If it doesn't, of course it'll fall short of any sort of accomplishments that high on the list.

But this is Marvel we're talking about, & they have their heads on straight, so I see their movies doing bigger and bigger numbers. Avengers 3 is definitely going to have massive potential to take the throne for highest grossing movie of all time as well domestically.

As for TWS, my predictions have been pretty much met. I said at the lowest it would gross $500 million & it's currently on course to hit $700 million, to which I did say I could see $700-800 million WW at its highest. It's awesome to see Cap doing these numbers, he's already passed TDW in just a little over three weeks.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I think it is funny that someone back in 2012 predicted it would make $700m domestically is fighting my opinion of it making between $650m-$750m

So apparently people can't change their opinion over a 2 year span now

I was thinking just like you back then until I learned better. Yeah, it's easy to just assume it will go up jus because that's the trend you see form smaller movies, but there is simply not a lot of room for it to go up. Everyone who was going to see the movie in the states saw it the first time. At best it will make a lateral move, but it's more likely it decreases.

There's really no point in bringing up a prediction made 2 freaking years ago as validation for your argument, it just makes me think your thoughts on the matter are not as evolved as mine are.