Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

[Mr.M]

So cap1 was a financial failure?

Did you do the math correctly or can I not trust you with that much? Studios look for 2.5x the production budget to break even if that is simpler for you. So no, Cap came out a tad bit in the red after its box office run. Then you add in DVD/Blue Ray and cable subscriptions, and you have a profit. TLS did not break even at the box office with that formula (think it was listed at costing 210 million). But there is still additional revenue brought in from the other sales.

Case in point, read the last few pages of the ASM2 box office thread and see why fans are complaining that a 700 million dollar gross would be bad for Sony. Hypsters have been looking at box office for a while now.

 

[Mr.M]

This isn't X4 though. This franchise has been so scattered through the years this well not play out like a full on sequel to X3. If it makes 230-250 domestic that's hardly a failure.

It will be a failure barring a ridiculous overseas gross, and Apocalypse production budget will be largely scaled back. Right now there is no reason why Apocalypse should get a production budget anything less than 220 million, if we take Singer at his word that it will be a bigger film than DOFP. It will have an equally good cast (OT actors probably didn't receive usual salaries for brief roles aside from Jackman) and the scope will be just as big if not bigger. But DOFP grossing 250 million with a marginal overseas return will see Fox making severe cuts the next go around.

I'm not worried because I expect this film to comfortably do the numbers it is supposed to do.

 

[Snikt]

I, for one, am not worried at all about the Box office result of DOFP. I know it'll be huge.

The Wolverine grossed $282 million overseas.

I expect much more from the foreign market for DOFP...maybe $400-$450 million

 

[HIA]

I agree with your points, MrM, if Im honest. A movie like this, with this impressive cast, cant and shouldnt do less than 260-270.
If Man of steel was able to make 290, this Crossover has to do more. its not a new franchise, it should be bigger

 

[Snikt]

I agree with your points, MrM, if Im honest. A movie like this, with this impressive cast, cant and shouldnt do less than 260-270.
If Man of steel was able to make 290, this Crossover has to do more. its not a new franchise, it should be bigger

I'm in agreement with Box Office Mojo.com's prediction for the overall numbers. DOFP seemes poised (if it has great reviews from fans and critics) to make $280-$300 million domestic.

Think the Fast & Furious situation. Fast & Furious got fans to comes back to the franchise (First Class did the same). Fast Five brought back the fans and critics saw in increased return in box office; $625 million WW (The Wolverine brought in the 2nd most money for this franchise; $415 million WW). Fast & Furious 6 brought in the big guns and grossed $788 million WW. DOFP should be a Juggernaut (see what I did there ) and bring in some SERIOUS money.

 

[Mr.M]

Yeah, I don't think a 350/450 split is unrealistic for a film like this. I am expecting close to 800 million, and I wouldn't be blown away with a number like that. I'd be surprised if it approaches a 900 or billion dollar mark, but not shocked. If that's the case, it could be because the rest of the summer slate gets panned by critics and fans alike.

 

[def28]

But DOFP grossing 250 million with a marginal overseas return will see Fox making severe cuts the next go around.

Yeah, I just don't buy that. Fox expecting an increase of $150m + over their last two films for domestic doesn't seem that realistic to me. Hitting 100m more then FC shows alot of growth and should give them the confidence to continue.

But yeah, we'll see. While I'm confident it will make money and think we will see something similar to box office mojos final number, I'm not so confident on it destroying the domestic box office past it's first week. Or opening that high. Not that I think it's impossible, just that the number feels a bit much considering it's past films and odd order. More on the uncertain side I guess. Very interested in how it will perform.

 

[psylockolussus]

In my opinion, as long as it grosses X3's 234 million gross in the U.S. Fox won't worry anything. And foreign numbers will probably double or triple the domestic gross.

The Wolverine only got $134 million in the U.S. yet that it isn't stopping Fox to release a sequel for the movie. The foreign gross probably gave them confidence to do another Wolverine movie.

I do think the budget for Apocalypse will be smaller, since it won't feature the original cast. I think the salary for the original cast are quite high and of course without them, the salary for their cast would be smaller and I doubt the FC cast would be asking for a raise. Fox also doesn't always give their movie a budget higher than $200 million dollars.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Did you do the math correctly or can I not trust you with that much? Studios look for 2.5x the production budget to break even if that is simpler for you. So no, Cap came out a tad bit in the red after its box office run. Then you add in DVD/Blue Ray and cable subscriptions, and you have a profit.

According to this article, TFA was profitable on its box office run alone.

[FONT=&quot]Most recently, "Captain America: The First Avenger" opened in 2011 to $65.1 million and earned a total domestic gross of $176.6 million. The film's score on the Kagan Profitability Index, which is which is calculated by dividing a film's total revenues by its total costs, was 1.84. Typically, movies with a KPI more than 1.75 are considered profitable.[/FONT]

 

[X-Maniac]

Did you do the math correctly or can I not trust you with that much? Studios look for 2.5x the production budget to break even if that is simpler for you. So no, Cap came out a tad bit in the red after its box office run. Then you add in DVD/Blue Ray and cable subscriptions, and you have a profit. TLS did not break even at the box office with that formula (think it was listed at costing 210 million). But there is still additional revenue brought in from the other sales.

Case in point, read the last few pages of the ASM2 box office thread and see why fans are complaining that a 700 million dollar gross would be bad for Sony. Hypsters have been looking at box office for a while now.

This sounds very much like an outsider's over-generalised view of studio accounting to be honest.

I really don't think it's all a case of 'we must make 2.5x the budget'....

 

[psylockolussus]

Studios would go bankrupt if they must 'make 2.5x the budget' for every film they released.

 

[X-Maniac]

It will be a failure barring a ridiculous overseas gross, and Apocalypse production budget will be largely scaled back. Right now there is no reason why Apocalypse should get a production budget anything less than 220 million, if we take Singer at his word that it will be a bigger film than DOFP. It will have an equally good cast (OT actors probably didn't receive usual salaries for brief roles aside from Jackman) and the scope will be just as big if not bigger. But DOFP grossing 250 million with a marginal overseas return will see Fox making severe cuts the next go around.

I'm not worried because I expect this film to comfortably do the numbers it is supposed to do.

Of course X-Men Apocalypse will have a smaller budget. The original trilogy cast (who are the expensive ones) aren't in it.

Whereas 30 per cent (about $70m) of DoFP budget went on salaries, they won't need to spend that on the salaries for Apocalypse.

I think you are overdramatising and overgeneralising in a sort of scaremongering fashion.

 

[Mr.M]

According to this article, TFA was profitable on its box office run alone.

I guess you can take whatever metric you want. Back when the trades released an analysis of how this works, those were the numbers they produced (which I listed here) so that's the report I am referring to. Think it was back in 2011 when they were going over ramifications of earlier summer box office fallouts.

Of course X-Men Apocalypse will have a smaller budget. The original trilogy cast (who are the expensive ones) aren't in it.

Whereas 30 per cent (about $70m) of DoFP budget went on salaries, they won't need to spend that on the salaries for Apocalypse.

I think you are overdramatising and overgeneralising in a sort of scaremongering fashion.

We don't know what cast will be in place, so I don't see how a film with a bigger scope than DOFP will automatically have a smaller budget.

And I think some people are just seriously underestimating it in case in flutters at the box office, so to temper expectations accordingly. Certainly Fox would love to spin a 250 million gross to fans and shareholders as a good thing, but I won't buy it.

We've had estimates of 360 Domestic before the more conservative 290 estimate. So I am looking at something right in between. It's gonna have to do that number for me to feel confident that Fox will invest in this franchise for another 10-15 years.

 

[redp]

I guess you can take whatever metric you want. Back when the trades released an analysis of how this works, those were the numbers they produced (which I listed here) so that's the report I am referring to. Think it was back in 2011 when they were going over ramifications of earlier summer box office fallouts.



We don't know what cast will be in place, so I don't see how a film with a bigger scope than DOFP will automatically have a smaller budget.

And I think some people are just seriously underestimating it in case in flutters at the box office, so to temper expectations accordingly. Certainly Fox would love to spin a 250 million gross to fans and shareholders as a good thing, but I won't buy it.

We've had estimates of 360 Domestic before the more conservative 290 estimate. So I am looking at something right in between. It's gonna have to do that number for me to feel confident that Fox will invest in this franchise for another 10-15 years.

Why $360 million is an outlandish figure for X-Men?

The X-Men: First Class grossed $146 million in 2011. 3 years later, ticket prices have barely increased by $0.03 dollars. Considering the lack of interest in 3D movies, a 13% increase is sufficient. So, it would translate to $165 million. This is the most recent figure that reflects interest in the X-Men as an ensemble. The movie itself, although a prequel, represents and is mostly classified as a reboot. As such, its sequel will logically undergo a sequel rise, near 35%-40%. That is the base gross.

Now, how to look at the maximum. You go back to the original trilogy that slowly built its fanbase and culminated with the Last Stand. Using the Last Stand's final grosses, we can adjust them for inflation to get an approximate $284.8 million. This was back when people were really interested in the new "original" comic-book style movies. It represents the original fanbase; its clear with the years that the size of the audience and the numbers slowly went down. If DOFP can re-interest the initial fan-base(which is a very difficult feat with only one entry) than at the most it can make $300 million.(This also means it is a great movie). I don't see how a figure such as $360 million came in??

Also, one can't ignore the competition. In 2006, there weren't 5 CB movies every year. With TASM and Transformers, its going to be tough to engross old fans once again. The marketing has been superb and that is where all the focus is.

 

[Zarex]

I'm thinking that the "cap" on this will be Cap. The previous installments in the Captain America and First Class series came within 5% of each other in terms of overall box office, with Cap doing better domestically and FC outperforming the Marvel film overseas. Both franchises upped the stakes to a large degree for the sequel - grander spectacle, familiar faces (OT cast for DOFP, Avengers cast for CA:TWS) and bigger names (Jackman in DOFP, Redford in CA:TWS).

DOFP has the more profitable release date than the Cap sequel, but has serious competition both before (Godzilla) and after (Maleficent). Cap looks like a lock to hit $700 million in overall box office, and if DOFP gets the quality reviews that the fans are expecting, the film will likely end up around that figure.

 

[Mr.M]

Why $360 million is an outlandish figure for X-Men?

The X-Men: First Class grossed $146 million in 2011. 3 years later, ticket prices have barely increased by $0.03 dollars. Considering the lack of interest in 3D movies, a 13% increase is sufficient. So, it would translate to $165 million. This is the most recent figure that reflects interest in the X-Men as an ensemble. The movie itself, although a prequel, represents and is mostly classified as a reboot. As such, its sequel will logically undergo a sequel rise, near 35%-40%. That is the base gross.

Now, how to look at the maximum. You go back to the original trilogy that slowly built its fanbase and culminated with the Last Stand. Using the Last Stand's final grosses, we can adjust them for inflation to get an approximate $284.8 million. This was back when people were really interested in the new "original" comic-book style movies. It represents the original fanbase; its clear with the years that the size of the audience and the numbers slowly went down. If DOFP can re-interest the initial fan-base(which is a very difficult feat with only one entry) than at the most it can make $300 million.(This also means it is a great movie). I don't see how a figure such as $360 million came in??

Also, one can't ignore the competition. In 2006, there weren't 5 CB movies every year. With TASM and Transformers, its going to be tough to engross old fans once again. The marketing has been superb and that is where all the focus is.

All valid points, but this was supposed to be Fox's answer to the Avengers. They are looking for massive returns, not a billion, but something massive. How can Fox maintain a reputable film studio if their non-Cameron franchises cannot gross more than 500-600 million? That fantastic figure has largely eluded them and this is their best shot.

Aside from the fanboys tired of Wolverine, I strongly doubt this film lost any following from the OT trilogy at its height, which was probably the months leading up to TLS. The fan base will be retained because it's not like they got too old or anything. FC has also built a new fan base for itself along with regaining the trust of the old, just as BB helped rebuild the core Batman fan base. Using that box office to project this doesn't make a lot of sense IMO.

So I am going to retain the vast majority of the OT fans, plus combine that with the FC fan following, and go with 320 million, with 3D and adjusted for inflation, as the target number. As for WOM, that will obviously sway things a big way depending on what the critics do with it. I think the critics did in MoS last year. Should have been a 750-800 film, but the film was panned in large part.

 

[redp]

So I am going to retain the vast majority of the OT fans, plus combine that with the FC fan following.

My only concern is that most of the OT fans are also fans of FC, and vice-versa. The nature of the combination is quite different from that of The Avengers for several reasons. Consequently it is highly unlikely that it can make a humongous jump to $320 million. International figures are less easily predicted but the maximum is almost at $400 million. I can only see a gross above $400 million if its a superior film, like The Dark Knight.

 

[psylockolussus]

Days of Future Past is a not a cross-over movie from heroes from different franchises/series. Thats the major difference with The Avengers. Days of Future Past reunites the original cast of the X-Men movies, Wolverine and the prequel characters of the series.

If X-Men works with Fantastic Four and Spider-Man in a movie then its premise would be similar to the Avengers.

 

[def28]

Agreed. This is all the same characters for the most part. Everything is coming from films titled X-Men or Wolverine.

 

[Mr.M]

I am not talking about crossovers though. The people that went into the OT and came out mildly impressed will want to see the conclusion of these characters. TLS erased a lot of this goodwill, but I don't think it completely eliminated the OT following. Would people not have shown up to Raimi's Spider-Man 4 to wipe the sting from their mouth's from Spiderman 3? As long as the reception were as good as SM2 I don't see why they would not. So I don't think much of the OT following will be lost at all if the reception is there. The fanboys that walk because Cyclops was killed or the fact that Wolverine is the lead again is negligible. This means the movie should outpace TLS adjusted for inflation, which puts it at 300ish.

As far as the FC following, I was referring more to Jennifer Lawrence fans than anyone else. The cast itself is pretty hot right now, but some of the Hunger Games fans might tune in to this.

 

[psylockolussus]

I get what you are saying that this movie should earn 300mill because X3 earned 284 million (adjusted). But it doesn't mean that if DOFP earned less than 300 million in the U.S. Fox would be so disappointed. DOFP would be the first X-Men film in 8 years to gross more than 200 million in the U.S. As long as it gets 230 million or more, I think Fox would be okay with it.

Also, the foreign market is getting larger and larger. 68% of The Wolverine's worldwide gross didn't come from the U.S.

 

[Liam_H]

The argument that this movie should earn with X3 did plus inflation and 3D doesn't really hold. Because less people are going to the movies now then over a decade ago, domestically. A $300M benchmark is still the same because inflation/3D is balancing out the lower attendance.

 

[kedrell]

I think Suber's guess on BOM is quite overly high. He must be assuming all ducks line up in a row for this film, which is what would have to happen for it to make $760M WW. It's possible, just not likely. It needs stellar reviews and WOM plus all other films in it's path need to do worse than expected. It may get close to $250M DOM but I doubt it will go passed that much. OS, I don't see a nearly $500M take. History just says that this franchise isn't that popular. Probably a finale in the high $300M's for a WW cume in the low $600M's. That's my guess. And it still needs good reviews to make even that much. If it's bad(which is at least a 50/50 chance at this point) then chop a couple hundred million off that total.

 

[HIA]

so Man of steel was able to do 290 in USA, with a less known lead actor, but XMen with its amazing and huge cast reunion cant?
mmmm

 

[kedrell]

MoS had a marketing campaign that dwarfs DoFP's so far. Plus the most recognized superhero in history.