Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

[HIA]

tell that to Superman returns, lol.

Superman wasnt hot like Spiderman and Ironman, Superman returns wasnt huge, but that changed with Snyder movie.

Dofp on other hand combines actors from a long saga, when most are even more popular now than in previous movies. So.... I dont see all the worries and doubts

 

[Zarex]

My estimates from last summer. I don't see box office prognostication as a future career field.

Marvel CBMs in 2014:

1) ASM2 - $700m
I see some "Spidey-fatigue" here, resulting in a drop off at the box office.
Update - This looks like my best prediction.

2) DOFP - $600m
I originally had the next three as "pick-em", but FOX is getting off to a fast start.
Update - This is looking low.

3) CA:TWS - $550m
A substantial box office boost for "Avengers 1.5", but limited internationally.
Update - Completely blew this one.

4) GOTG - $500m
A nice start, with the franchise having the potential to blow up with the sequel.

5) Big Hero 6 - $400m
Disney animation, Marvel, appeal to Asian markets - not "Wreck it Ralph", but solid.

 

[kedrell]

Even SR made high-end level money if it was an X-Men film. And Supes still isn't hot like Iron Man. Nowhere near that level when the last Iron Man film doubled MoS's take. Cap just beat MoS's total gross and will likely do around $50M more than it WW. Spidey is in decline and even then he's likely gonna do better than MoS.

The doubt comes from 6 X-Films all staying in around the same area(less than $500M WW). That's a pattern and indicates that X-Men is a smaller franchise in terms of appeal than many others who are also in the film adaptation business. That's not an opinion, just a fact. And the time of superstar actors selling a film is over. This isn't the 1990's anymore.

 

[HIA]

MoS top Ironman 1, Cap 1 and Thor 1 and 2.
Winter soldier is a sequel and comes after Avengers. Lets wait and see how much a MoS sequel will do on the same scenario

 

[kedrell]

I'm just saying right now where they are in terms of popularity at the movies. Sure Iron Man, Thor, Cap all have the Avengers to boost them. I'm not taking into account fairness in that respect.

 

[SuperT]

For reference, this is what TWS & TASM were tracking to three weeks out from their release dates.

TWS
Tracking: High 80's
Actual: $95M

TASM
Tracking: Mid 80's
Actual: $91.6M

 

[marvelrobbins]

If it can go higher than 125 million for 4 day opening weekend that would be huge.

 

[JP]

The only big release on a holiday weekend. Both DofP and 'Zilla will benefit.

 

[BlackFox]

I apparently voted for $600m so I guess I have to go with that!

What exactly are Fox looking for to count it as a success anyone know?

 

[JP]

Also note that Spidey only made $5million yesterday. I think we're gonna be looking at a big drop next weekend.

 

[HIA]

if XMen opens around 125m, do you think 60m for second weekend is too high?

 

[Eddie]

if XMen opens around 125m, do you think 60m for second weekend is too high?

Maleficent and A Million Ways To Die In the West will probably take away too much for a $60 million second week.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Also note that Spidey only made $5million yesterday. I think we're gonna be looking at a big drop next weekend.

HUGE drop off. I'm expecting over 60%.

 

[Liam_H]

if XMen opens around 125m, do you think 60m for second weekend is too high?

Most definitely. Briefly, looking at the numbers if it opens that high the 2nd weekend is looking to be around $40-45M.

 

[Dr. Evil]

if XMen opens around 125m, do you think 60m for second weekend is too high?

Yes, especially because one of the films (Maleficent) is Angelina Jolie's first on screen role in four years. The film will be hyped up as her comeback role.

 

[josh8]

Sorry to say, but it should be expected for DOFP to drop at least 60% in it's second weekend. It opens on a 4-day weekend inflating it's 3-day total. After bad word of mouth, TLS dropped 67%. The bonus is the big Monday from the opening holiday weekend.

After a standard 3-day weekend (over ten years ago!), even with good word of mouth X2 had the franchise's smallest drop at 53%. FC had a drop of 56% (also good word of mouth) and that's indicative of the current era of frontloading due to movies opening on Thursday nights.

The best case scenario would be an opening that's even higher than the projected $125M and then a relatively standard drop of 60%.

 

[marvelrobbins]

I think Maleficent Is going to be this year's snow white and the huntsman and I have seen more knowledge box office experts make that compession.

Angelina Jolie's hit films have been action films. I don't think her return to films mean It will be giant hit.

As for DOFP If it word of mouth performs like X2 It should be In good shape especilly If 125 million 4 day opening weekend happens or even bigger.

 

[psylockolussus]

if XMen opens around 125m, do you think 60m for second weekend is too high?

Hopefully $70 million!

Seriously speaking, I hope it doesn't have a big drop. But I wouldn't be surprised if the drop is close to 60%.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Snow white and the huntsmand made over 100 million domesticly. It wasn't a bomb. Granted that may have been more because of charlize Theron,Chris Hemsworth,and fantsy elements.

Other more knowledge people have made this compession. Just because this is her first film In few years doesn't mean it will blow away all other films. Outside of marvel and it's animated films disney doesn't always blow all other films away. Maleficent doesn't have brand that OZ had.

Stars being away for few years doesn't help. Maleficent Isn't likely to bomb but it may not be top film of summer eather.

 

[Orba]

Don't forget that Disney live action films can cause surprises, Alice in Wonderland made over a billion at the box office despite average reviews.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Yeah but many knowledge people think DOFP Is going to be huge this summer. If it opens to 125 million over 4 day weekend and it performs like X2 that could get It to 260 Million or up
level.

People who are more expext think how I trained your dragon 2 or transformers will be top film of summer.

 

[Mariah]

600-700

Marketing in LA was atrocious, but I think it may do better than the expert's predictions. But I feel like anything can happen.

 

[HIA]

what do u mean with atrocious? and with 'was'?

 

[Mariah]

Promotion for the film wasn't really there. Fox searchlight promoted the return of 24 more than dofp, people weren't aware a new x-men movie was coming out unless they saw TAS2, I'm only now seeing the posters on buses, billboards and stops.

 

[kedrell]

if XMen opens around 125m, do you think 60m for second weekend is too high?

Definitely, considering Maleficent as competition and that DoFP's $125M tracking number is for the 4-day holiday weekend. That means that it's 3-day total would be around Cap2 & TASM2's OWs. And X-Men is a historically weak-legs franchise. So put that all together and they should be looking for a 2nd weekend in the $40M range, IF IT'S WELL RECIEVED.