I really think that election 2012 will be a repeat of 2004. An unpopular incumbent is going up against a bland, uninspiring, flip flopping opponent. People will vote against the incumbent just because they hate him, not because they like the challenger.
I do think that 2012 will be a closer race than in 2008. Democrats are not as energized and optimistic of Obama as they were four years ago. I'm curious to see who the Republicans hate more: Romney or Obama. That is what the Republican base is feeling right now: revulsion by both of them. Just like Dems 8 years ago.