The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Rorschach2012]

**** Avatar, this is a far better movie

This movie should be the biggest of all time

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Very true, it's just a question of how the legs down the road level out or not. We'll see. With the kind of opening it had, Avatar is in sight, along with 3B.

I am honestly not sure about $3bil. The international market is harder to gauge, at least for me. I kind of doubt it right now. What I find more amazing is that if it holds up the next few weeks, 1 billions domestically seems like an actual possibility, which would be insane. It could pass Avatar in a month.

 

[mclay18]

So regarding the Box Office for the sequels as things are planned now the goal as per James Cameron is to have Avatar 2 Christmas 2017, Avatar 3 Christmas 2018, Avatar 4 Christmas 2019.

How this is going to affect the Star Wars sequels release dates? Disney just had a lot of success with a Star Wars Holiday release. Are they prepared to throw-down with the Sith Lord Cameron?

Disney signed a lucrative theme park attraction deal with Fox and Cameron for an Avatar themed attraction at Disneyland and WDW several years ago. However, Fox ultimately calls the shots in terms of release dates. They're the ones bankrolling the films and right now, Episode VIII is closer to production (January-February 2016 filming), while Cameron is waffling with "early 2016."

Cameron says that he's done a lot of prep work, script polishing and previsualization for the next three films. But the release dates won't be set in stone until they start filming, and even then the VFX may take 1.5 years to finalize.

There's a reason Disney staked Rogue One for Christmas 2016, and why Fox hasn't dated the Avatar sequels yet.

Star Wars is moving back to May with Episode VIII.

I think Disney might push it to December 15, 2017. They'll be rolling in the dough with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 or Episode VIII on May 2017. They won't need both, and with TFA doing so well, they could save it as an annual Christmas tradition.

And let's not forget Disney and Fox have to negotiate Zoe Saldana's availability for both Avatar and GOTG follow-ups. GOTG 2 starts filming in February...

 

[InCali]

I am honestly not sure about $3bil. The international market is harder to gauge, at least for me. I kind of doubt it right now. What I find more amazing is that if it holds up the next few weeks, 1 billions domestically seems like an actual possibility, which would be insane. It could pass Avatar in a month.

When I put out the "pushing 550M by Sunday" rant, the IB DOM started to occur to me. I thought about it before, but the way TFA shot out of the gates is astounding. At first it was just blah, blah, blah, 1B, but now........I think it may just make it or at least get close. I think it's almost a certainty that it will pass Avatar's DOM totals. Agree with the uncertainty of Int'l numbers because there's so much variation involved.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

What are the current chances of this taking the Tuesday record?

 

[Silver Surfer]

Highest grossing Tuesday is the opening day of Amazing Spider-Man with $35,016,884

Highest grossing non-opening Tuesday is JW with $24,342,515.



Credible sources over at BOT are reporting that SW7 will smash that with $36-38m.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Use The Force Luke!!!!

 

[souvlaki]

Same reliable source that said 39-41 million yesterday at the Box Office Theory forum is hinting at 36-38 million today. Another new record including openings?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

When I put out the "pushing 550M by Sunday" rant, the IB DOM started to occur to me. I thought about it before, but the way TFA shot out of the gates is astounding. At first it was just blah, blah, blah, 1B, but now........I think it may just make it or at least get close. I think it's almost a certainty that it will pass Avatar's DOM totals. Agree with the uncertainty of Int'l numbers because there's so much variation involved.

Yeah, it is crazy to think of this actually possibly being a thing, but if these numbers hold up you start to realize it might be a thing.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think 800 m is a sure thing.

I'm not going to get my hopes up for a billion just yet.

I'm hoping for 900 m DOM.

WW I want to beat Titanic but I'll be happy with "only" 2 billion.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Meh, this movie will get re-released for decades to come, one way or another it will reach 1 Billion domestic.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think 800 m is a sure thing.

I'm not going to get my hopes up for a billion just yet.

I'm hoping for 900 m DOM.

WW I want to beat Titanic but I'll be happy with "only" 2 billion.

I have trouble seeing anything higher than 2 billion as any possibility. Which would still be beyond amazing in the grand scheme.

Operating under the best case scenario I can see 800m domestic and 1.2 billion OS, which would be a higher OS total than Jurassic World and only behind Titanic and Avatar.

So that's the 2 billion right there but that's still under optimal conditions.

 

[Iceman]

Highest grossing Tuesday is the opening day of Amazing Spider-Man with $35,016,884

Highest grossing non-opening Tuesday is JW with $24,342,515.



Credible sources over at BOT are reporting that SW7 will smash that with $36-38m.

Same reliable source that said 39-41 million yesterday at the Box Office Theory forum is hinting at 36-38 million today. Another new record including openings?

Lovely!!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Damn this movie is so massive.

 

[Silver Surfer]

#StarWars may break another record - best TUE gross ever. Heading to high 30s tonight. Shd beat $35M TUE opening day of 2012 Spidey.

 

[danoyse]

Saw it again at the IMAX tonight, and it was completely sold out. In fact, we had to go to a different theater because the one we wanted to go to was already sold out. Crazy.

 

[Silver Surfer]

This is what Gone with the Wind was like huh? or at least the closest we will ever see any movie get.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Saw it again at the IMAX tonight, and it was completely sold out. In fact, we had to go to a different theater because the one we wanted to go to was already sold out. Crazy.

t:

Did you have a good time danoyse?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I almost pulled a (Superhero Hype poster) Tony Stark and said that The Amazing Spider-Man doesn't deserve the Tuesday record. Almost...

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

This is what Gone with the Wind was like huh? or at least the closest we will ever see any movie get.

The original SW and ET are probably the last domestic ones.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I almost pulled a (Superhero Hype poster) Tony Stark and said that The Amazing Spider-Man doesn't deserve the Tuesday record. Almost...

 

[Snow Queen]

Of all the films that have come out since, I'm surprised TASM had that record.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

This is what Gone with the Wind was like huh? or at least the closest we will ever see any movie get.

Rey: Ren, Ren...Ren, if you go, where shall I go? What shall I do?
Kylo Ren: Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.

t:

 

[The Chris]

Of all the films that have come out since, I'm surprised TASM had that record.

How many big movies have come out on a Tuesday I wonder?

 

[Snow Queen]

How many big movies have come out on a Tuesday I wonder?

Oh, did that come out on a Tuesday? That makes sense then.