The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[DarthSkywalker]

Mojo are pretty awful at updating their individual territories numbers.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It would be interesting (and easy) to adjust the Chinese box office numbers for devaluation.

But would not matter in terms of the actual total.

 

[smappy45]

Yeah, Hamill and Ford have a fan base there. I feel the eastern influence is mainly Japanese. From the Hidden Fortress parallels to the kendo-style lightsaber duels (of the OT) to the bushido-esque code of the jedis. Chinese and Koreans can see what you pointed out, but probably at a push.

The Master/Padawan dynamic is a lot more Chinese than Japanese. You can find a lot of master/pupil's drama in Hongkong kungfu movies. Chinese influence stands out esp. in PT.

I find several similarities between Star Wars and Jin Yong's Condor Heroes Trilogy. JY's novels made to films for the first time in early 1960s so Lucas might have actually been inspired a bit from it, he watched Hongkong films too, right?

1. Anakin and Padme's forbidden romance as they are Jedi and Senator. Padme is older than Anakin, and she first met him when he was a kid.
Yang Guo and Xiao Longnu's forbidden romance as they are master and disciple. Xiao Longnu is older than Yang Guo and first met him when he was a kid.
2. One of Anakin/Luke's arm was cut off.
One of Yang Guo's arm was cut off.
3. Luke Skywalker, being the good son and redemption of his evil father, Anakin.
Yang Guo, being the good son and redemption of his evil father, Yang Kang.
4. Yoda first met with Luke similar to Hong Qigong (North Beggar)'s first met with Yang Guo. Yoda was happily looking for food, the North Beggar was looking for food too.
5. The fall of the Old Republic = The fall of Song Dynasty. The rise of the Galactic Empire = The rise of Yuan dynasty (established by the Mongols).
6. Rebellion era, rebellion lead by Leia against the Galactic Empire in the original trilogy = Rebellion lead by the Ming cult against Yuan dynasty (Mongols) in "Heaven Sword & Dragon Sabre"
7. The heroes of the original trilogy established the New Republic = The Ming Cult of HSDS established the Ming dynasty.
8. Han and Leia's roles in the battles similar to Guo Jing and Huang Rong. Han and Leia make appearances in TFA, just like how Guo Jing and Huang Rong, the leads in "Legend of Condor Heroes" appeared again in "Return of Condor Heroes" as mentors.

And this one...

I see a lot of Chinese influence in Star Wars.

 

[InCali]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=starwars7.htm

Did you notice during the last week that the DOM/OS split has been at least in the 40/60 range? What do you think it'll look like when all is said and done?

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Did you notice during the last week that the DOM/OS split has been at least in the 40/60 range? What do you think it'll look like when all is said and done?

I'll go with 44%/56% t:

It's still sitting at 48% Dom which is still pretty high.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think it is hard to deny that Star Wars is far more Japanese influenced. Not that there isn't anything Chinese influenced, but just at the Jedi and how much Kurosawa is in the films.

 

[InCali]

But would not matter in terms of the actual total.

Geeze....and this from the guy who points to "adjusted" numbers from movies that are 80 years old!!!

You are correct of course. I just said it would be interesting to do. On the other hand, just who decides what should and shouldn't be adjusted?

So, I think I just came up with a new statistic......Chinese box office totals adjusted for devaluation against the dollar in the last 2 years!!!

And.....it's more accurate than the "Adjusted for Inflation" stat.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'll go with 44%/56% t:

It's still sitting at 48% Dom which is still pretty high.

Depends on China. If China is big, it will skew the totals more.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Geeze....and this from the guy who points to "adjusted" numbers from movies that are 80 years old!!!

You are correct of course. I just said it would be interesting to do. On the other hand, just who decides what should and shouldn't be adjusted?

So, I think I just came up with a new statistic......Chinese box office totals adjusted for devaluation against the dollar in the last 2 years!!!

And.....it's more accurate than the "Adjusted for Inflation" stat.

Globe market places. For example, China is a having a mini-disaster in the stock market right now. Though apparently today was better after two days of hell.

 

[InCali]

I'll go with 44%/56% t:

It's still sitting at 48% Dom which is still pretty high.

Right, but China's numbers are not yet in. "IF" it gets 300M, that 48.5% will probably drop by at least 5.5%. That and the fact that the OS market is currently outpacing the US/Canada sales would bring it even lower.

Of course we may not see 300M from China and you could be dead bang on target.

 

[PacificBoy]

The yuan is still bouncing about, and the dollar value loss from April 2015 to now is actually minimal at this point, 6-7% broadly. Have to wait for the final tally to do any adjustments.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Right, but China's numbers are not yet in. "IF" it gets 300M, that 48.5% will probably drop by at least 5.5%. That and the fact that the OS market is currently outpacing the US/Canada sales would bring it even lower.

Of course we may not see 300M from China and you could be dead bang on target.

I don't see it dropping lower than 44% at any rate. It will hold strong with RofS numbers. I thought it could get lower but time stops for no one.

 

[InCali]

Globe market places. For example, China is a having a mini-disaster in the stock market right now. Though apparently today was better after two days of hell.

Oh and all this time I thought it was Box Office Mojo that decided what is and isn't a statistic. t: When all is said and done, I'm going to look at what the China numbers would have been if compared to the $ 1 year ago.

It'll be.......fun...

 

[PacificBoy]

The Master/Padawan dynamic is a lot more Chinese than Japanese. You can find a lot of master/pupil's drama in Hongkong kungfu movies. Chinese influence stands out esp. in PT.

I find several similarities between Star Wars and Jin Yong's Condor Heroes Trilogy. JY's novels made to films for the first time in early 1960s so Lucas might have actually been inspired a bit from it, he watched Hongkong films too, right?

1. Anakin and Padme's forbidden romance as they are Jedi and Senator. Padme is older than Anakin, and she first met him when he was a kid.
Yang Guo and Xiao Longnu's forbidden romance as they are master and disciple. Xiao Longnu is older than Yang Guo and first met him when he was a kid.
2. One of Anakin/Luke's arm was cut off.
One of Yang Guo's arm was cut off.
3. Luke Skywalker, being the good son and redemption of his evil father, Anakin.
Yang Guo, being the good son and redemption of his evil father, Yang Kang.
4. Yoda first met with Luke similar to Hong Qigong (North Beggar)'s first met with Yang Guo. Yoda was happily looking for food, the North Beggar was looking for food too.
5. The fall of the Old Republic = The fall of Song Dynasty. The rise of the Galactic Empire = The rise of Yuan dynasty (established by the Mongols).
6. Rebellion era, rebellion lead by Leia against the Galactic Empire in the original trilogy = Rebellion lead by the Ming cult against Yuan dynasty (Mongols) in "Heaven Sword & Dragon Sabre"
7. The heroes of the original trilogy established the New Republic = The Ming Cult of HSDS established the Ming dynasty.
8. Han and Leia's roles in the battles similar to Guo Jing and Huang Rong. Han and Leia make appearances in TFA, just like how Guo Jing and Huang Rong, the leads in "Legend of Condor Heroes" appeared again in "Return of Condor Heroes" as mentors.

And this one...

I see a lot of Chinese influence in Star Wars.

Are you Chinese too? You have quite the familiarity with the condor heroes. Those are interesting parallels, never thought of it that way. Maybe I was trying to forget the prequels ha.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Are you Chinese too? You have quite the familiarity with the condor heroes. Those are interesting parallels, never thought of it that way. Maybe I was trying to forget the prequels ha.

Who wants to be the source of inspiration for the prequels?

 

[InCali]

The Master/Padawan dynamic is a lot more Chinese than Japanese. You can find a lot of master/pupil's drama in Hongkong kungfu movies. Chinese influence stands out esp. in PT.

I find several similarities between Star Wars and Jin Yong's Condor Heroes Trilogy. JY's novels made to films for the first time in early 1960s so Lucas might have actually been inspired a bit from it, he watched Hongkong films too, right?

1. Anakin and Padme's forbidden romance as they are Jedi and Senator. Padme is older than Anakin, and she first met him when he was a kid.
Yang Guo and Xiao Longnu's forbidden romance as they are master and disciple. Xiao Longnu is older than Yang Guo and first met him when he was a kid.
2. One of Anakin/Luke's arm was cut off.
One of Yang Guo's arm was cut off.
3. Luke Skywalker, being the good son and redemption of his evil father, Anakin.
Yang Guo, being the good son and redemption of his evil father, Yang Kang.
4. Yoda first met with Luke similar to Hong Qigong (North Beggar)'s first met with Yang Guo. Yoda was happily looking for food, the North Beggar was looking for food too.
5. The fall of the Old Republic = The fall of Song Dynasty. The rise of the Galactic Empire = The rise of Yuan dynasty (established by the Mongols).
6. Rebellion era, rebellion lead by Leia against the Galactic Empire in the original trilogy = Rebellion lead by the Ming cult against Yuan dynasty (Mongols) in "Heaven Sword & Dragon Sabre"
7. The heroes of the original trilogy established the New Republic = The Ming Cult of HSDS established the Ming dynasty.
8. Han and Leia's roles in the battles similar to Guo Jing and Huang Rong. Han and Leia make appearances in TFA, just like how Guo Jing and Huang Rong, the leads in "Legend of Condor Heroes" appeared again in "Return of Condor Heroes" as mentors.

And this one...

I see a lot of Chinese influence in Star Wars.

I know nothing about Condor Heroes Trilogy, but still find this fascinating.

 

[InCali]

The yuan is still bouncing about, and the dollar value loss from April 2015 to now is actually minimal at this point, 6-7% broadly. Have to wait for the final tally to do any adjustments.

Still, when you are talking 100s of millions of dollars, 6-7% is not an insignificant number. We'll see when we get final numbers.

 

[InCali]

The yuan is still bouncing about, and the dollar value loss from April 2015 to now is actually minimal at this point, 6-7% broadly. Have to wait for the final tally to do any adjustments.

Y'know, this discussion makes me wonder how they actually calculate the final figures. Say TFA opens at 100M in the first week (to make the #s easy) and there's a 2 to 1 exchange rate. That would be 200M Chinese. If the exchange rate later dropped to 1 to 1 the next week and TFA made 100M Chinese, would it get reported as another 100M? Would they readjust the first week to make it 200M?

I guess the easiest way to do it would be to just do a day by day calculation and then leave it alone.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Mojo are pretty awful at updating their individual territories numbers.

Yeah, I think the numbers does a better job these days. BOM hasn't been the same since Subers left/was pushed out.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-VII-The-Force-Awakens#tab=international

 

[Erzengel]

So much better going to Boxofficemojo and seeing Star Wars under alltime.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

And we're off! Per @ChinaBoxOffice, TFA took in $2.7 million from midnight shows.

 

[InCali]

And we're off! Per @ChinaBoxOffice, TFA took in $2.7 million from midnight shows.

How does that compare to some of the heavy hitting movies there?

 

[Erzengel]

Furious 7 raked in 8 million from midnight shows.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How does that compare to some of the heavy hitting movies there?

As noted, not as good as FF7. OTOH, $700k more than TG. AoU did about $2 million more.

 

[InCali]

Furious 7 raked in 8 million from midnight shows.

Wheeeeeewwwww.......3x!!! Might not mean too much, but it probably means something..........