The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[PacificBoy]

There were allegations (or are I should say) that its profits were undercut, under-reported. But yeah, the gold standard for legs for Hollywood movies is probably FF7. Jurassic World had the craziest multipliers I think.

 

[spiderman2]

According to Forbes,

The Arnold Schwarzenegger film scored $2.2 million worth of midnight previews in China, which is the fourth-biggest on record for an American film behind Transformers: Age of Extinction ($3.38m), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($4.7m), and Furious 7 ($8.03m). It then went on to earn $27.4 million on its first single day, which is the fourth biggest debut for a US movie ever in China, behind Transformers 2 ($30m), Avengers 2 ($33.9m), and Furious 7 ($63m). Yes, that is larger than the $1.1m worth of previews and $17.7m single day gross of Jurassic World back in June.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain...isys-rocks-china-with-26-million-opening-day/

The total it made was $112,800,000 according to Mojo.

Still too early to talk about TFA's totals now though, the manner in which the presales are rallying.

Oh ok good to no because most likely this movie will make more then terminator genisys did in china and I had no clue that 63m was the biggest first day for any movie in china. Interesting that it made more first day then JW but yet only made about half over all. So JW had much much better legs. Now we just need a big first day like terminator but with legs like JW lol.

 

[PacificBoy]

Oh ok good to no because most likely this movie will make more then terminator genisys did in china and I had no clue that 63m was the biggest first day for any movie in china. Interesting that it made more first day then JW but yet only made about half over all. So JW had much much better legs. Now we just need a big first day like terminator but with legs like JW lol.

JW didn't have legs but an off-the-charts multiplier. Anyway it's really looking up in terms of presales.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

JW didn't have legs but an off-the-charts multiplier. Anyway it's really looking up in terms of presales.

Good, I hope the film does better than expected.

 

[PacificBoy]

Came across some unsubstantiated Chinese chatter, but it seems there's a possibility it's matching FF7 in presales(!) from another online ticketing site which tracks by ticket numbers rather than dollar value. Which means the variance is bigger. Maoyan is therefore more accurate but it seems to update slower.

 

[spiderman2]

Came across some unsubstantiated Chinese chatter, but it seems there's a possibility it's matching FF7 in presales(!) from another online ticketing site which tracks by ticket numbers rather than dollar value. Which means the variance is bigger. Maoyan is therefore more accurate but it seems to update slower.

If that is true maybe we get a update from Maoyan in the morning? What do you mean unsubstantiated chatter?

 

[spiderman2]

Interesting article hear about how china increase in movies and how usa ticket sales have been going down over all for a long time. I think there are some reasons for the ticket sales going down such has ticket pricess, video games, tv, bad enconimy ect.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/artic...ortant-to-the-force-awakens-box-office-record

 

[PacificBoy]

If that is true maybe we get a update from Maoyan in the morning? What do you mean unsubstantiated chatter?

Just some informal social media chitchat. The site being referred to seems to be this:

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

Which appears to update much faster than Maoyan. I don't know when the final tallies will be announced. Still got about 7 hours before the midnight previews.

 

[spiderman2]

Just some informal social media chitchat. The site being referred to seems to be this:

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

Which appears to update much faster than Maoyan. I don't know when the final tallies will be announced. Still got about 7 hours before the midnight previews.

Oh ok that was my next question was when where we going to get china numbers because they are ahead of the USA time wise. So they are like 16 hours ahead of USA pacific time? So it looks like some people reviewed the movie on there? I see like 9.0, 6.0 ect.

 

[PacificBoy]

Oh ok that was my next question was when where we going to get china numbers because they are ahead of the USA time wise. So they are like 16 hours ahead of USA pacific time? So it looks like some people reviewed the movie on there? I see like 9.0, 6.0 ect.

Yes and yes. You can ignore the 10 point grading -- it's someone expressing the hope that the object of his affection accepts his invitation to the movie lol.

 

[spiderman2]

Yes and yes. You can ignore the 10 point grading -- it's someone expressing the hope that object of his affection accepts his invitation to the movie lol.

Oh ok good to know I have about 7.5 hours before I have to get up and get ready for work. So I need to go to bed hopefully when I get up we will have some news about how the movie is doing in china.

Random question but the last few days I have started to have a problem posting on hear some. Some times I get a error that saids this. "The message you have entered is too short please lengthen your message to at least 3 characters". I am starting to get really annoyed with that. Am I the only one having that issue? Have you had that issue?

 

[PacificBoy]

Oh ok good to know I have about 7.5 hours before I have to get up and get ready for work. So I need to go to bed hopefully when I get up we will have some news about how the movie is doing in china.

Random question but the last few days I have started to have a problem posting on hear some. Some times I get a error that saids this. "The message you have entered is too short please lengthen your message to at least 3 characters". I am starting to get really annoyed with that. Am I the only one having that issue? Have you had that issue?

No such issue on my end. The latest it seems the presale ticket count, at least according to that one site, has beaten FF7's. So hmmm.

 

[smappy45]

Not sure if Japan box office interest anyone, but I thought I'll share.

For comparison, these are the current records.

Japan's All-Time Highest Grossing Movies:
1. GHIBLI's Spirited Away (2001) / Weekend Opening (3 days): JPY 1.614 billion (USD 13.6 million) / Final Result: JPY 30.4 billion (USD 257 million)
2. Titanic (1997) / Weekend Opening (2 days): JPY 500 million (USD 4.3 million) / Final Result: JPY 27.2 billion (USD 230 million)
3. FROZEN (2014) / Weekend Opening (3 days): JPY 900 million (USD 8.3 million) / Final Result: JPY 25.9 billion (USD 219 million)
4. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) / Weekend Opening (2 days): JPY 1.5 billion (USD 13 million) / Final Result: JPY 20.3 billion (USD 172 million)
5. GHIBLI's Howl's Moving Castle (2004) / Weekend Opening (2 days): JPY 1.4 billion (USD 12.5 million) / Final Result: JPY 19.6 billion (USD 166 million)
(note: calculated with current rate, so the USD numbers might not be accurate)

It took SW:TFA 20 days to earn JPY 7 billion, while FROZEN took 23 days.
SW:TFA also surpassed Spirited Away's weekend opening record with JPY 1.62 billion sales.

In 2014, FROZEN became the first movie that passed JPY 20 billion mark after 13 years in Japan. It is predicted that The Force Awakens will be another movie that passes the JPY 20B mark. The question is, will it beat Spirited Away's 30B?

I remember FROZEN ran in the theaters for 6 months, FROZEN fever was pretty crazy in Japan. TFA will have to last that long too to pass 20B.

So anyway I'm quite optimistic that Japan might contribute USD 200-250 million overall.

Just wondering, what are the other countries' number looks like, so far?

 

[PacificBoy]

Isn't Japan like the third or fourth largest BO? I think for overseas, UK and one or two more other European countries have record-breaking numbers for TFA.

Frozen was huge in Japan because of the VA and how wonderfully translated the songs were right?

 

[Iceman]

Looking good in Japan and that's a market where some blockbusters just don't catch on.

I didn't realise that animated movie was no.1 (and no.5)! Is it really good?

 

[PacificBoy]

Looking good in Japan and that's a market where some blockbusters just don't catch on.

I didn't realise that animated movie was no.1 (and no.5)! Is it really good?

Hayao Miyazaki is the man. If you love animation, you gotta check out his oeuvre.

Marvel movies rather surprisingly don't fare well in Japan, but Star Wars is a staple of their pop culture.

 

[Iceman]

Hayao Miyazaki is the man. If you love animation, you gotta check out his oeuvre.

Marvel movies rather surprisingly don't fare well in Japan, but Star Wars is a staple of their pop culture.

Yes I'm very intrigued to see this and shed some light on how it did such huge numbers. How many films are there in this series?

Yes I remember seeing disappointing Japanese numbers on some of the Marvel films. It's a big territory to miss out on.

 

[Lord]

Yes I'm very intrigued to see this and shed some light on how it did such huge numbers. How many films are there in this series?

Yes I remember seeing disappointing Japanese numbers on some of the Marvel films. It's a big territory to miss out on.

Miyazaki's ouvre? Check his filmography out, it might be extensive, but most of his films are worth it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayao_Miyazaki#Filmography

Now and then, he makes a meh film like Ponyo, but his great films are easily on par with Disney's and Pixars's golden ages.

Kind of a shame it took so long for his films to catch on worldwide and that his biggest successes were still relatively small when compared with his animation rivals.

 

[smappy45]

Isn't Japan like the third or fourth largest BO?

Yes, third next to China, as a matter of fact.

Frozen was huge in Japan because of the VA and how wonderfully translated the songs were right?

Not sure of the obvious reasons, but I'd say the Japanese dubbers did a wonderful job and Takako Matsu successfully made "Let it go" a huge hit in Japan. tbh, I love Matsu's singing voice a lot more than Menzel's.

I didn't realise that animated movie was no.1 (and no.5)! Is it really good?

Don't forget #3 is also animation t: Spirited Away deserves its BO number with its ground-breaking story/universe and the mythical creatures. Everything happens is unexpected and the story is hard to predict. As much as I love TFA, I don't think its worthy enough to steal Spirited Away's #1 all-time BO spot in Japan. And Spirited Away isn't even my favorite GHIBLI film... because it's dark and grotesque, but I admit the quality is amazing.
I can't say the same about Howl's Moving Castle though. Howl was good, I like it, but not that great, actually. I think it has massive opening number because Miyazaki announced his retirement before the release and said Howl would be his last work. But then the old fart changed his mind and decided he hadn't made enough movies so he made two more before he finally retired two years ago.

But anyway I really recommend GHIBLI movies.

Marvel movies rather surprisingly don't fare well in Japan, but Star Wars is a staple of their pop culture.

Star Wars is something nostalgic for the Japanese as much as it is for the Americans, I believe. Didn't Mark Hamill promote ANH in Japan in 1978? I think I saw pictures of that. The OT was big in Japan, indeed. I saw a Japanese interview in youtube, with Mark, Carrie and Gary Kurtz too, too bad it was dubbed though, I wanted to hear their real voices.

Star Wars contains a lot of eastern elements that appeals to asians, Marvel stuff has none.
1. Master and pupil's relationship
2. A warrior's soul-searching
3. A warrior's code of honor
4. Swordplay
5. Masked villain
6. Family drama
and the list goes on...

 

[PacificBoy]

Not sure of the obvious reasons, but I'd say the Japanese dubbers did a wonderful job and Takako Matsu successfully made "Let it go" a huge hit in Japan. tbh, I love Matsu's singing voice a lot more than Menzel's.

As much as I love TFA, I don't think its worthy enough to steal Spirited Away's #1 all-time BO spot in Japan.

Agree with you on both counts.

Star Wars is something nostalgic for the Japanese as much as it is for the Americans, I believe. Didn't Mark Hamill promote ANH in Japan in 1978? I think I saw pictures of that. The OT was big in Japan, indeed. I saw a Japanese interview in youtube, with Mark, Carrie and Gary Kurtz too, too bad it was dubbed though, I wanted to hear their real voices.

Star Wars contains a lot of eastern elements that appeals to asians, Marvel stuff has none.
1. Master and pupil's relationship
2. A warrior's soul-searching
3. A warrior's code of honor
4. Swordplay
5. Masked villain
6. Family drama
and the list goes on...

Yeah, Hamill and Ford have a fan base there. I feel the eastern influence is mainly Japanese. From the Hidden Fortress parallels to the kendo-style lightsaber duels (of the OT) to the bushido-esque code of the jedis. Chinese and Koreans can see what you pointed out, but probably at a push.

I suppose Japan's own strong tradition of homegrown superheroes (Ultraman, Kamen Rider, Super Sentai, Astro Boy and many more) means it's harder for a foreign one, even a popular American superhero, to find favour. It'd be interesting to see BvS' reception there. But if Civil War starts showing Spidey in its marketing (and nailing his look), I reckon it'll have a better chance of winning the Japanese box office between the two.

Annd, the Chinese presales look all kinds of amazing?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I thought the Chinese presales were soft?

 

[PacificBoy]

It seemingly went cray cray overnight. Don't quote me on this, but by some counts, it HAS exceeded FF7 in OD presales ticket numbers.

Missing dollar value and other variables, but...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It seemingly went cray cray overnight. Don't quote me on this, but by some counts, it HAS exceeded FF7 in OD presales ticket numbers.

Missing dollar value and other variables, but...

Well, I hope that is right. Apparently Chinese currency is down compared to where it was in Furious 7 came out. We will see what happens.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Just wondering, what are the other countries' number looks like, so far?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=starwars7.htm

 

[InCali]

Well, I hope that is right. Apparently Chinese currency is down compared to where it was in Furious 7 came out. We will see what happens.

It would be interesting (and easy) to adjust the Chinese box office numbers for devaluation.